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Vuelta a España 2016: Stage 7 Preview

Stage 7: Maceda › Puebla de Sanabria – 158.5km

Another day at the Vuelta, another hilly-but-not-too-hilly profile. Stage 7, just like the last several days, could very easily go to the early break or a late move. It could also go to one of the several fast finishers on the start list with decent climbing legs.

The late Cat. 3 isn’t particularly intimidating, but it is followed by a long descent. That will give any attackers (either from an early break or in a late move) a nice shot to stay clear as the sprint teams take time getting organized.

Still, there are a few teams with versatile speedsters on the roster, enough to motivate the bunch to chase—as such, it’s probably worth starting with the likes of Gianni Meersman.

He’s proven to be the rider to beat in the sprints in this Vuelta, and he’s got a great skillset for this sort of stage. It’s up to team cooperation to make this a sprint, but he’s deserving of favorite status in that scenario.

Fabio Felline is another rider capable of surviving the parcours and getting into the mix in a sprint. Trek also has Niccolo Bonifazio, giving the team two great options.

Kristian Sbaragli, Tosh Van der Sande, Magnus Cort Nielsen, and Nikias Arndt are other candidates for a sprint.

Philippe Gilbert is one to watch on that last climb. Punchy as he is, this a great profile for him, and he’s got the speed to win a reduced sprint.

The same could be said for Alejandro Valverde. He’s looked very strong in this race. He’s not a candidate from the early break like Gilbert might be, but he’ll be deadly if there aren’t many riders left by the time the bunch pulls into the final 25km.

José Goncalves, Luis León Sánchez, Simon Clarke, and Zdenek Stybar are others to keep an eye on in an attacking scenario.

VeloHuman Stage 7 Favorites

1. Gianni Meersman | 2. Fabio Felline | 3. Philippe Gilbert

August 26, 2016
Vuelta a España 2016: Stage 6 Preview

Stage 6: Monforte de Lemos › Luintra – 163.2km

Before the Vuelta began, I expected Stage 6 to be the first breakaway day in the race. Now it’s set to be the third.

The profile is perfectly suited for the long-range attackers, with no super-hard climbs but plenty of up and down. There’s only one categorized climb, a Cat. 2 that begins at kilometer 105, but it’s followed by two more uncategorized lumps likely to make it tough for the sprinters to stay involved. That, coupled with a finish that shouldn’t have much of a GC impact, should reduce the impetus of the peloton to chase.

The hardest thing about previewing this stage is trying to predict who will be in the break. Several names come to mind as likely long-range hopefuls, and a few others come to mind as strong contenders who at least have the potential of getting into the move.

Philippe Gilbert seems as good a place as any to start. He showed both form and motivation attacking the peloton at the end of Stage 5, and this stage profile suits him well. He can win a reduced sprint if he’s in the lead group at the right time.

So can Fabio Felline. This is a great profile for the Italian. It also suits his Trek teammate Kiel Reijnen.

I’m expecting Caja Rural to be very active in Stage 6. They have multiple options, with Jose Goncalves and Pello Bilbao standing out the most to me. It’s never easy to predict which Caja Rural rider will be in a break, but you can be assured they’ll try to get someone up the road.

The long list of possible candidates who might win this stage from afar (or from the peloton, for that matter) also includes: Zdenek Stybar, Luis León Sánchez, Thomas De Gendt, Simon Gerrans, Simon Clarke, Jan Bakelants, and Enrico Battaglin.

Should this come down to the bunch after all, beware the versatile Gianni Meersman, who is on fire in this race. If he’s not there at the finish though, Alejandro Valverde and Michal Kwiatkowski are riders who might be in the mix.

VeloHuman Stage 6 Favorites

1. Philippe Gilbert | 2. Fabio Felline | 3. Jose Goncalves

August 25, 2016
Vuelta a España 2016: Stage 5 Preview

Stage 5: Viveiro › Lugo – 171.3km

The Vuelta’s fifth stage should be one for the sprinters. The only official climb of the day is a Cat. 3 over 50km from the finish, and then it’s mostly flat the rest of the way home. There is an uphill drag of a few kilometers running up to the 2km-to-go mark, which could conceivably makes things a bit interesting—but a big sprint seems to be the most likely outcome.

Gianni Meersman nabbed the first sprint win of the race, and he’s definitely a candidate for success again in Stage 5 having proven he’s in good shape (with a great leadout). He’ll be hoping for a high pace on the late uncategorized bump—anything to wear out the purer speedsters on the startlist, even if there’s no top-shelf names here.

Nikias Arndt looks like a strong candidate for Stage 5 too. Among the few sprinters at the Vuelta, he’s one of the most accomplished. Form is a bit of a question mark, but on ability, he deserves to be up there as a potential stage favorite.

Kristian Sbaragli is another of the rare quick men on the startlist with an actual Grand Tour win under his belt. He’s been quieter this year than expected and didn’t factor much in Stage 2 but with a decent leadout he’s got a chance.

Niccolo Bonifazio will likely be in the mix as well. He’s still got a ways to go in the consistency department but he’s flashed some serious talent in his young career.

Michael Schwarzmann has a chance to show that Stage 2 wasn’t a fluke. I’m not sure I expect another top 2 performance from him, but anything is possible in this field. The same is true for Magnus Cort Nielsen, Jean Pierre Drucker, Fabio Felline, and Jonas van Genecthen are others to watch.

VeloHuman Stage 5 Favorites

1. Gianni Meersman | 2. Nikias Arndt | 3. Kristian Sbaragli

August 24, 2016
Vuelta a España 2016: Stage 4 Preview

Stage 4: Betanzos › San Andrés de Teixido – 163.5km

On the heels of Stage 3’s explosive finish comes another day with a punchy finale. The first 150km will be relatively calm, but the day ends with an intriguing Cat. 2 climb that will likely bring the GC men to the fore again.

It’s a three-part ascent to the line. Technically, the “climb” is 11.2km at 4.8%, but in reality there’s a steep stretch to start, leading to a quick descent, and then about 4km at around 7%.

Given the parcours, I see many of the same favorites from Monday as favorites again Tuesday.

Alejandro Valverde has the perfect skillset for Stage 4, and he proved in Stage 3 that he’s got the form. This is another great opportunity for him to take a victory. Nairo Quintana and Rubén Fernandez could be in the mix too, of course, but I’d imagine Movistar will ride for Valverde.

Chris Froome was right alongside Valverde Monday and he should be there again here—however the finish isn’t as steep, so it may come down to a reduced sprint, which doesn’t favor Froome as much.

Gianluca Brambilla probably wouldn’t mind a reduced sprint. He’s got a nice kick, and has shown form. This is a great chance for him to nab a second Grand Tour stage win this year.

Esteban Chaves has the right combination of explosiveness and climbing legs to get involved. So too do Luis León Sánchez, Fabio Felline, Philippe Gilbert, and José Goncalvez.

Alberto Contador deserves a mention too. He’d need to attack to win the stage, but he could be motivated to get aggressive after a lackluster showing in Stage 3.

VeloHuman Stage 4 Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Gianluca Brambilla | 3. Esteban Chaves

August 23, 2016
Vuelta a España 2016: Stage 3 Preview

Stage 3: Marín › Dumbría – 176.4km

The Vuelta’s third stage is one for the puncheurs, with a 9.3km, 5.4% gradient climb crested just over 20km from the finish to soften up the bunch and then a viciously steep Cat. 3 finale of 1.8km at 13.8% to guarantee fireworks at the line.

The topographical challenges may not be long enough to decide the Vuelta, but the steep finish will be far too difficult for anyone without great climbing legs. I expect the GC men to be in the mix with a few stagehunter-types for the win, probably out of the peloton late—though there is some chance of a long-range move sticking.

It’s never easy picking favorites for a stage like this, but Alejandro Valverde looks to be as good a tip as any. He’s got the explosiveness and the uphill ability to thrive at this finish, and he seems to be in fine enough form. Daniel Moreno is a fine alternative for Movistar, while Nairo Quintana will be an interesting one to watch, given a chance to show he’s in form even if this isn’t necessarily his favored terrain.

Chris Froome seems like a decent bet to me. He’s not an Ardennes specialist, and he’s been known to take irregular climbs at his own pace, but I don’t know that I buy into the notion that he can’t deal with explosive ascents. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the best climber in the world try to kick away from his rivals here. Alberto Contador, who many see as the top overall favorite in Spain, could have the same thing in mind.

Esteban Chaves has a nice bit of punch and plenty of climbing expertise to be involved here. His Orica-BikeExchange teammate Simon Yates seems like just as strong a pick. It’s hard to make any judgments about Yates’s abilities or particular skillset this early in his career, but he has shown explosiveness and strong climbing legs in plenty of races already.

The finish is probably a bit too demanding for Michal Kwiatkowski and Philippe Gilbert, but I don’t think it’s out of the question that either contends. Gianluca Brambilla, Robert Gesink, Darwin Atapuma, and Samuel Sánchez are others to watch.

VeloHuman Stage 3 Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Esteban Chaves

August 22, 2016
2016 EuroEyes Cyclassics Preview

The race formerly known as the Vattenfall Cyclassics, known to most riders as simply “Hamburg,” is a rare opportunity for the purest of sprinters to nab a WorldTour-level one-day win. As such, it’s probably no surprise that the cream of the sprinting crop are in Hamburg this weekend to do battle in a showdown likely to provide an early indicator of who’s in form ahead of a sprinter-friendly worlds road race.

The Route

Notwithstanding a few yearly minor changes to the race distance, the main idea for the Cyclassics is always the same: ride around the Hamburg suburbs for 2.5 hours or so, then do a few loops on a somewhat challenging circuit headlined by the Waseberg climb, less than 1km but with an 8% gradient. That’s the case again this year.

Typically, there are a few attempts to escape the peloton as things near a conclusion, but it’s almost inevitable that the sprinters’ trains reel in the late moves to set up a high-speed showdown.

The Contenders

Hamburg may be a race that rewards the fastest of finishers, but it’s still a one-day race with a non-negligible climb in the finale. As such, the sprinters who don’t mind Classics-style racing tend to thrive.

André Greipel is the defending champion, and it’s hard to see anyone else as the top favorite heading into Sunday’s race. For pure speed when in peak form, Greipel is among the two best on the startlist. He’s also a proven winner who doesn’t mind one-day racing. The only question for Greipel is consistency—he does tend to disappear on occasion, so don’t be all that surprised if he’s not in the best position in the finale. Then again, don’t be surprised if he smokes everyone on the finishing straight either.

Alexander Kristoff is another former winner with a great shot. He’s not the very fastest rider in a drag race, but he more than makes up for it with Flanders-winning grit. Expect a strong performance from the three-time podium finisher.

John Degenkolb, the 2013 winner, is also fully capable of winning again, especially having shown strong form in the Arctic Race of Norway, where he claimed the points classification and a stage victory. If he’s really back to his best, he’ll be a dangerous contender at the finish, and like Kristoff, he shouldn’t have any trouble making it there even if the race is hectic late.

Marcel Kittel is the wildcard on the startlist. On peak form he’s the fastest man in the race, but he hasn’t been on peak form this year, and he’s also never been much for top-level one-days. I see him as a favorite, but not the favorite that his speed might otherwise dictate.

Arnaud Démare is yet a former winner with a shot, especially after he showed off just how strong he can be with his Monumental win in Sanremo this spring. Giacomo Nizzolo almost always contends (he’s a three-time podium finisher) and should almost certainly be there in the finale, though pulling off a win is always a tall order for the Italian. Danny Van Poppel, Nacer Bouhanni, Caleb Ewan, Sacha Modolo, and Tom Boonen are others to watch.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: André Greipel
Podium: Alexander Kristoff, John Degenkolb
Other Top Contenders: Marcel Kittel, Arnaud Démare, Giacomo Nizzolo, Danny Van Poppel, Nacer Bouhanni, Caleb Ewan, Elia Viviani

Photo by Michael Behrens (CC).

August 21, 2016