The Vuelta may be seen as the third most prestigious of the three Grand Tours, but for several years running the race has delivered plenty of thrills and big names. This year should be no different. Plenty of top GC stars are making the start in Spain hungry to pick up a big victory before the season ends.
The Route
As Vuelta routes go, this year’s is relatively tame. There are mountaintop finishes, sure, but nothing quite so extreme as l’Angliru or the Andorra stage from 2015. Instead, the mountains are spread across multiple stages, with the middle of the race offering the most opportunities for GC action.
The race begins in Galicia and makes its way eastward along the northern coast of Spain until arriving in the Basque Country, taking advantage of the hilly terrain there along the way. As such, expect things to be a bit wetter than they often are in the Vuelta, at least in the first half of the race.
After a medium-distance stage 1 TTT, the GC battle should be mostly quiet (apart from a a few punchy days) until Stage 8, the first mountaintop finish. Climber-friendly stages 9 through 11 will keep things interesting (with a rest day after Stage 10).
The next two days of racing are for the stagehunters, but Stage 14 is probably the most challenging in the Vuelta, closing out with a 16.5km climb at 7.1%. Stage 15 is a tough one as well, with a Cat. 1 finale.
A sprinter-friendly Stage 16 brings the race into Catalonia and the eastern coast of Spain. A rest day follows, before a mountainous Stage 17 but then a less-than-challenging Stage 18.
Stage 19 will be a critical battleground, especially in a race without any marquee days of especially brutal climbs; it’s a 37km time trial, and a mostly flat one at that. The TT specialists with big engines will have a chance to make a big difference here before the GC finale in Stage 20. The penultimate day of racing may not have any particularly steep ascents, but four Cat. 2s leading into a 21 kilometers of climbing to the finish (with a 5.9% gradient) won’t be a walk in the park.
The race finishes in Madrid with a day that should suit the sprinters.
The General Classification Contenders
The Vuelta has been rather hard to predict in recent years, and it looks like a tough one to call this year as well. There’s plenty of talent on the startlist, and unclear form and motivation among the top names in the race.
Chris Froome is the best GC rider in the world right now, and he’s been after a Vuelta win for a long time. The form is a question mark, but given his ability, I have a hard time seeing anyone else as the favorite for this race. He’s got the all-round skillset to dominate if he’s feeling strong, and even if he’s not at 100% he’ll still be hard to beat.
Alberto Contador is also a well-rounded rider who should thrive on this parcours. He also has the advantage of being fresher than most of the other top contenders, who are coming from the Tour de France. That has proven to be a critical factor in recent Vuelta victories, and it shouldn’t be underestimated this year.
It’s hard to say which of Movistar’s dynamic duo of Alejandro Valverde and Nairo Quintana will prove strongest in Spain. Quintana may be the young, rising GC star, but Valverde looked just as strong at the Tour, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Quintana lined up in support of Valverde at the Vuelta. That said, I think Quintana is more capable of actually winning the race, if he can find some form. He is unquestionably better at peak form than Valverde is.
Giro runner-up Esteban Chaves took a big step up this season. A second top-notch Grand Tour ride will be a tall order, especially given the flat TT in the final week, but he’s a contender for sure. So too is Steven Kruijswijk. He’s a bit of a wildcard after a surprising Giro, but if he rides like he did in Italy, he could win the Vuelta.
Louis Meintjes, Miguel Ángel López, Robert Gesink, Samuel Sánchez, Tejay van Garderen, Andrew Talansky, and Pierre Rolland are others to watch in the battle for the red jersey.
The Stagehunters
There are very few top-shelf sprinters making the Vuelta start. That means it’s up to the likes of Kristian Sbaragli, Nikias Arndt, Gianni Meersman, and Tyler Farrar to battle for wins on the flat stages.
Despite the absence of sprinters, there are plenty of punchy types in Spain who will appreciate the many intermediate stages. Philippe Gilbert, Simon Gerrans, and Fabio Felline are riders to watch on the bumpier days.
VeloHuman Top 10 Overall Race Favorites
Winner: Chris Froome
Podium: Alberto Contador, Nairo Quintana
Other Top Contenders: Esteban Chaves, Alejandro Valverde, Steven Kruijswijk, Andrew Talansky, Miguel Ángel López, Samuel Sánchez, Tejay van Garderen
Photo by Pedro Semitiel (CC).
