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Clásica de San Sebastián 2016 Preview

The cycling season may be over for casual fans, but this weekend’s Clásica de San Sebastián proves there’s plenty of good bike racing still watch this year. The one-day trek on the undulating roads of the Basque Country tends to be pretty exciting, though hopefully this year’s edition will eschew the whole motorcycle-running-into-the-potential-race-winner thing.

The Route

The race is 220.2km long with six “categorized” climbs. The first is just an appetizer to possibly spring a long-range break. Then comes a two-climb circuit that the peloton will traverse twice (for a total of four climbs). The first ascent is the Jaizkibel, basically a small mountain, and then the short but steep Arkale. After two trips up and over both comes the final climb, the Tontorra, also short and steep but harder than the Arkale. From the top, it’s just 8km to the finish, most of it downhill.

The Contenders

On such a hilly parcours, the climbers and punchy classics specialists reign supreme—though the great thing about this race is that both have a shot at winning. Last year was a good example of this: winner Adam Yates is a Grand Tour-type climber, but the rider who probably would have won without moto interference, Greg Van Avermaet, is a Flemish classics star.

To recap, climbing legs and endurance for a tough day on the bike are both key. Having a finishing kick is important too, if you can’t drop everyone before the flat run-in to the line.

Alejandro Valverde is probably the top favorite in a very open field. He’s won before, he’s in good form, and the race suits him perfectly, with a profile hard enough to whittle things down and a finish that allows him to put his descending skills and sprint on display.

BMC brings two riders with excellent prospects. Greg Van Avermaet will probably be itching for revenge. I was actually surprised that he did so well last year (up until getting knocked out of the race) on such a hilly course, but if he could do it then, he can probably do it now. Past winner Philippe Gilbert is another terrific option if the form is there—though that’s a question mark.

Etixx has Dan Martin, who loves this sort of race, but he’s never done well in San Sebastián for whatever reason. Maybe that changes this year, with Rio on the horizon.

Katusha’s Joaquím Rodríguez is definitely a rider to watch. His punchy climbing legs are still among the best in the peloton, even as he nears retirement. Ilnur Zakarin is another option for the squad.

Adam Yates could certainly feature again, though last year’s win was a bit unconventional for me to be that confident in him. His brother Simon Yates and Michael Albasini are other options for the team.

2013 winner Tony Gallopin, Michal Kwiatkowski, Mikel Landa, Alberto Contador, Roman Kreuziger, Bauke Mollema, Diego Ulissi, Jarlinson Pantano, and Tim Wellens are other strong candidates for success Saturday.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Alejandro Valverde
Podium: Joaquím Rodríguez, Greg Van Avermaet
Other Top Contenders: Philippe Gilbert, Dan Martin, Michal Kwiatkowski, Adam Yates, Tony Gallopin, Tim Wellens, Diego Ulissi

July 30, 2016
The Recon Ride Podcast: Clásica de San Sebastián 2016

Episode 50: Clásica de San Sebastián 2016 Pre-race Show

The Tour is over but the pro peloton still has plenty of racing to do, with this weekend’s Clásica de San Sebastián the next big event on the menu.

[powerpress]

Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano talk route, favorites, and storylines for Spain’s biggest one-day race, the always-exciting Clásica de San Sebastián.

Photo by Dane Cash.

July 28, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 21 Preview

Stage 21: Chantilly › Paris – 113km

Somehow, the Tour’s final stage is already upon us. You know the script—although the day gets underway in a new start town (Chantilly), expect about an hour of processional riding into Paris, with champagne glasses and smiles before things heat up.

After an enterprising few get clear in the city circuit, the sprint trains will ramp up the pace and ultimately bring it all together for a high-speed bunch kick on the Champs-Élysées. Sure, a successful escape is possible, but it’s highly unlikely. Stage 21 is all about the sprinters.

With Mark Cavendish out of the race, the battle for the final stage is much more open. I see three riders as prime candidates to win, with Marcel Kittel leading the way. He’s done it before, he’s been decent enough this year, and at his very best he’s probably the fastest sprinter in the world.

André Greipel can run hot and cold, making it tough to pick him to nab consistent victories, but he’s definitely a threat here. He’s looked good, if not great, in a few sprint stages so far this Tour.

Alexander Kristoff is the other speedster that I see with a shot here. He’s come very close to winning on the Champs-Élysées in the past, and critically, he has appeared to get stronger and stronger as this race has gone on. Perhaps he’s peaking just in time for cycling’s biggest sprint showdown.

Peter Sagan will likely be in the mix as he always is. Bryan Coquard, Dylan Groenewegen, John Degenkolb, Michael Matthews, Daniel McLay, and Edvald Boasson Hagen are others to watch.

VeloHuman Stage 21 Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. André Greipel | 3. Alexander Kristoff

July 24, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 20 Preview

Stage 20: Megève › Morzine-Avoriaz – 146.5km

The final mountain stage of the Tour is upon us! It’s an intriguing way to close out the GC battle—the profile is certainly a tough one, but the stage ends with a high-octane descent into a flat finish, so anyone hoping to pick up time will have to be aggressive well before the line.

The Col de Joux Plane, the HC-rated final climb of the Tour, is 11.6km long at 8.5%. The second half of the climb has several stretches that hit double-digit gradients, though only just, as it’s a pretty steady ascent.

The descent has some tricky corners and it’s steep, so there’s opportunity for a risk-taker to get an advantage there as well.

Stage 20 is yet another day that will give the breakers a good shot at glory, so I’ll start with the long-distance candidates. Rafal Majka, as ever, is a rider to watch, though it’s tough to say how much Friday’s efforts will have taken out of him. The same could be said for Thomas De Gendt, Jarlinson Pantano, Rui Costa, Pierre Rolland, and Dani Navarro.

I am particularly interested in Vincenzo Nibali. As Rio draws closer, I have to assume the Shark is honing his form, and this stage suits him perfectly. If he can make the break, he’ll be very hard to beat. Ilnur Zakarin also kept his powder dry Friday and could be a threat.

Chris Froome probably deserves to headline the conversation of potential stage winners out of the GC crowd, but I would imagine he’s planning to play this stage pretty safe, especially after crashing yesterday. In other words, I don’t really know what to expect in terms of his battling for the win.

Romain Bardet is an obvious threat here, given the ability he showed Friday and the downhill run-in to the line. Movistar has options with a rallying Nairo Quintana and an Alejandro Valverde who will probably be able to win a sprint if it comes to that.

Richie Porte, Joaquím Rodríguez, and Dan Martin are others to watch.

VeloHuman Stage 20 Favorites

1. Vincenzo Nibali | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Chris Froome

July 23, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 19 Preview

Stage 19: Albertville › Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc – 146km

A breakaway is never a sure thing, but Friday’s stage looks great for the early escape, coming on the heels of a tough TT, with a profile that should make the racing hard to control, and a mountain stage still on the horizon to temper the pace among the GC riders.

Though there are strangely no KOM points on offer at the summit, the uncategorized opening climb could day’s move could jump clear. From there the riders will have to deal with four categorized ascents en route to the finish line atop the final challenge. The last two climbs are the most important of the stage. The HC rated Montée de Bisanne probably comes too far from the line to spring a winning move, but at 8.2% for 12.4km, it will definitely whittle down both the break and the GC men.

The finishing climb, 9.8km at 8%, will likely see any organized groups shatter into ones and twos. It’s not that long, but I expect it to favor the real climbing specialists.

Rafal Majka is a great candidate for success in Stage 19. I’ve said before that I see him as the best climber out of the obvious breakaway types right now, and that makes him a strong contender here.

The same is true for Ilnur Zakarin, who looked brilliant in Stage 17. He’s really shown himself to be a top-notch climber of the course of the last year and a half.

I have a hard time rating Jarlinson Pantano’s chances, but he’s certainly a rider to watch. Three weeks ago I might have said this stage was a bit challenging for Pantano to be a top favorite but he’s looked so good in this Tour that the sky is really the limit right now.

Vincenzo Nibali, Pierre Rolland, Dani Navarro, Rui Costa, Warren Barguil, and Tom Dumoulin are others who stand out as clear long-range candidates, while Tejay van Garderen, now 17 minutes down on GC, might be a rider to watch from the breakaway at this point as well.

Should this come down to the GC men, Chris Froome is an obvious favorite, though if he follows the approach of past Tours de France he may be content to play things relatively conservatively now. That makes Richie Porte especially dangerous, given how strong he’s looked the past few days. Fabio Aru, Romain Bardet, and, of course, Nairo Quintana are others who could find themselves in the hunt for the stage win.

VeloHuman Stage 19 Favorites

1. Rafal Majka | 2. Ilnur Zakarin | 3. Chris Froome

July 22, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 18 Preview

Stage 18: Sallanches › Megève – 17km (ITT)

The Tour’s 18th stage is an unusual time trial that fits somewhere between a traditional chrono and a hill climb. The day starts out flat and finishes on a downhill, but there is a challenging ascent in the middle of the route—from kilometer 4 to kilometer 14.5 is a stretch of irregular climbing with an average gradient of a little over 6%. The topography is particularly difficult just at the start.

I see three riders as standing head and shoulders above the rest in the favorites conversation. The stage favors all-rounders, which makes this a great day for Chris Froome, who balances chrono ability with climbing legs probably better than anyone on the start list. Until Stage 13, it had been a while since we’d seen Froome lighting up against the clock, but there’s little doubt he’s as strong as ever now.

Richie Porte fits the bill as well. I think a lackluster Stage 13 could partially be written off as a result of lingering injury after his Stage 12 crash. He looked great Wednesday.

Tom Dumoulin is the other rider to watch. Obviously this is a much more climber-friendly TT than Stage 13, but Dumoulin is quite a strong climber in his own right, as evidenced in last year’s Vuelta, last week’s Arcalis stage, and a number of other times in his career. For me he’s the third favorite here, but it’s a pretty slim margin.

For stage win outsiders, look to Adam Yates, Bauke Mollema, Nairo Quintana, Ilnur Zakarin, and Ion Izagirre.

VeloHuman Stage 18 Favorites

1. Chris Froome | 2. Richie Porte | 3. Tom Dumoulin

July 21, 2016