Stage 18: Belluno > Rif. Panarotta (Valsugana) – 171 km
Culminating with the Category 1 Rifugio Panarotta climb, the Giro’s eighteenth stage is sure to offer fireworks. However, with an all-important uphill time trial on the horizon followed by the nasty Monte Zoncolan the day after, the GC contenders may decide to temper their efforts on Stage 18, which could open things up to a breakaway for the second day in a row (Stefano Pirazzi got into the day’s big move on Stage 17 and ultimately took the win). Once again, it wouldn’t make sense to call any one rider the singular favorite, but several riders do deserve to be considered contenders.
The profile is a mountainous one, with the Passo San Pellegrino as the first categorized climb on the menu. It’s a Cat. 1, 18.5 kilometers at an average of 6.2%. While it officially starts some 36 km into the race, by that point the road has already been going uphill, albeit gently, for about 30 kilometers! In other words, the first hour and a half of racing will take a lot out of the riders. From the top of the climb, it’s a descent followed by some ups and downs into the short but steep Passo del Redebus climb. Then comes a long descent and a flat section before the finale, a 15.9 kilometer, 7.9% average gradient ascent to the Rifugio Panarotta.
As difficult as the day looks, Stage 19’s time trial and Stage 20’s climax atop Monte Zoncolan finish may prove more decisive for GC. That could see the main maglia rosa contenders trying to keep their powder dry. On the other hand, Nairo Quintana has a significant GC lead, and his rivals know that their time is running out. Some of them are also probably not likely to fancy their chances against the clock. If they decide to use Stage 18 as an opportunity to take back time, anyone up the road will struggle to maintain an advantage on the final climb; it’s yet another day that, to me, is a tossup to go to the break or to the GC riders.
As the best climber in the race, Nairo Quintana is the first favorite among the overall contenders. As I like to point out in these breakaway-friendly scenarios, I’m not sure I’d bet on him against the field, but given the uncertainty that comes with trying to predict who will make the breakaway, let alone survive out front, his chances are at least as good as any other one rider in the race. His team can drive a very hard pace on the ascents, and even though he is now in the leader’s jersey, I don’t think he will just sit around and let attackers go by him on the final climb. I wouldn’t be surprised if he is driven to extend his lead to quiet critics of his unpopular Stelvio descent.
Astana’s Fabio Aru has had an amazing Giro d’Italia, but with a time trial approaching, he may feel the pressure to make an attack on this stage, and he’s looked strong enough to be a real contender for a victory. Nobody could match him on the Montecampione ascent, and he hasn’t shown any signs of fading. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland could have similar motivation. Time trialing has never been a strong suit. However, after two weeks of being given a lot of a leeway to make attacks due to his relatively non-threatening GC position, Rolland is now a marked man. It will be interesting to see how he responds, and whether he’s able to ride with the big favorites now that he won’t find it as easy to escape from long distance.
At 1:41 down, Rigoberto Uran knows he needs to act, so he could try to put Quintana under pressure here. Domenico Pozzovivo is even further down, making an attack likely. Young guns Rafal Majka and Wilco Kelderman have not been afraid to try late moves when they’ve seen openings. Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal made huge gains in GC and looked excellent on Stage 16 but, like Rolland, he’ll now find that his rivals won’t give him the same kind of freedom that he’s had up till now. BMC’s Cadel Evans has been losing time in the mountains and he will have his work cut out for him holding onto the final podium spot—this is a steep final ascent.
Should the maglia rosa hunters take a reserved approach, the morning breakaway could stick. A number of strong climbers could be weighing their chances in either scenario. He has not featured as prominently lately as he did in the first several stages, but Trek’s Julian Arredondo cannot sit idle here. There are too many KOM points on offer for him to miss the breakaway. If he can get into the day’s move, he will be a strong contender for stage honors. His countryman Fabio Duarte was 2nd behind Fabio Aru on the Montecampione climb. If he makes the break, he probably won’t waste his energy trying to pick up early mountain points, and that could leave him better prepared for the finale. Team Colombia squadmates Robinson Chalapud and Jarlinson Pantano are further strong options. Katusha’s Daniel Moreno looked very strong on Stage 15 and is running out of chances to get something positive out of this race, so he could try to strike here. Androni Giacotolli’s Franco Pellizotti is in a similar boat.
Other potential long-distance candidates include Sky’s Dario Cataldo and Sebastian Henao, Astana’s Mikel Landa, Lampre’s Przemyslaw Niemiec and Damiano Cunego, FDJ’s Alexandre Geniez, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Nicolas Roche, and Neri Sottoli’s Matteo Rabottini.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Fabio Aru | 3. Fabio Duarte
Friday’s time trial will have major GC implications, so be on the lookout for the preview after the conclusion of Stage 18. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.
-Dane Cash
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