Stage 20: Maniago > Monte Zoncolan – 167 km
After the Monte Grappa ITT that solidified Nairo Quintana’s hold on the pink jersey, only one GC-relevant stage remains in the 2014 Giro d’Italia. By this point, we’ve seen who is climbing on top form and who is struggling, but the race isn’t over just yet; everyone is vulnerable to a bad day here and there, and Stage 20 is not going to be forgiving.
The penultimate stage of the Giro is 167 kilometers in length. The first half is mostly flat, but then it starts to steadily rise upward into the Passo del Pura, a Category 1, 11.3 kilometer climb with an average gradient of 7.7%. Next comes the Category 2 Sella Razzo, 15.9 km at 5.2%. From there it’s a fast descent to the final mountain challenge of the 2014 Giro d’Italia: Monte Zoncolan.
The Giro d’Italia is full of brutal climbs, but the Monte Zoncolan is a different sort of challenge. It’s less than half the length of the Stelvio or the Val Martello, and does not reach the same dizzying heights. What makes the Zoncolan so vicious is its exceptional steepness. For 10.1 kilometers, the riders must brave an average gradient of 11.9%, and the average does not even tell the full story. The midsection of the ascent jumps up over 15% for a few kilometers, with sections in the 20% range. At gradients this extreme, there is simply nowhere to hide. Even a strong team cannot offer much help; there is not much benefit to be gained from sitting on a lieutenant’s wheel when everyone is going up this slowly.
As the last opportunity for the GC contenders to make any sort of moves up the leaderboard, Stage 20 will likely see the sort of fireworks from the big guns that will put any morning breakaway under pressure. Still, riders could decide to save up for the final push up the Zoncolan, allowing opportunists to get away on the earlier slopes, making it at least a possibility that a long distance attacker could take the day.
I think it is slightly more likely that the battle for stage honors comes down to the GC men and those who decide to stick with them, so I’ll name the favorites among the overall leaders first. Heavier diesel engines that prefer climb with steady teammate support are not going to enjoy this gradient. This stage is going to go to an ultra-lightweight, uphill charger. Nairo Quintana does not need to do anything else to prove that he’s the best climber in the race, so he is the most obvious candidate for the title of “favorite.” His performance in the Monte Grappa ITT was simply amazing, and the wicked gradients of Monte Zoncolan should be yet another perfect setting for the pink jersey wearer to put his talents on display.
Fabio Aru has shown on multiple occasions that he deserves to be considered the second best climber in the race. He was stellar in the Monte Grappa time trial, behind only Quintana, and he’s already taken a stage in this race. What’s more, he’ll be extra motivated knowing that 2nd overall on GC is within his grasp. He’s going to be on the lookout for the right opportunity to make a move on this climb, and there aren’t many riders who will be able to catch him.
Battling illness, Domenico Pozzovivo has not been at his best in this Giro. This would have been an excellent stage for his talents, but it’s hard to tip him as a favorite over Quintana or Aru right now. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland has an outside shot here but he is a marked man now that he’s in the Top 5 on GC, and he won’t be allowed to get up the road without a fight. Rigoberto Uran should be able to survive without huge time gaps but winning on these gradients seems unlikely; he’ll be more focused on protecting his 2nd overall on GC from Fabio Aru. Rafal Majka‘s podium hopes have been hit hard by stomach issues, and this is an unforgiving climb that could see him continue to struggle unless he recovers overnight. Cadel Evans, Wilco Kelderman, and Ryder Hesjedal could find themselves holding on for dear life.
I have a few favorites among the non-GC riders as well, climbers who could be allowed to get up the road, either in the day’s breakaway or with a late attack from the bunch on Monte Zoncolan. Team Colombia’s Fabio Duarte is, in my opinion, the member of this group with the best chances. He’s now a four-time 2nd place stage finisher in the Giro d’Italia, clearly capable of mixing it up with the best, but always just a hair shy of success. Unlike most of the other top climbers in the race, he did not expend a lot of energy in the Stage 19 time trial. He’ll be very motivated to pick up that elusive win here on the last summit finish of the race. Trek’s Julian Arredondo now has his stage win, and his KOM jersey is practically in the bag, but he could look for more glory on the famous Monte Zoncolan. Franco Pellizotti rode very well up the Monte Grappa and was also strong from the breakaway on the stage prior, suggesting excellent form at the moment. Androni Giacotolli is winless in this Giro d’Italia, and Pellizotti is their best chance at coming away from the race with a result. Katusha’s Daniel Moreno is another very strong climber on a team that needs to get something out of this Giro. Sky’ s Dario Cataldo and the very surprising Sebastian Henao and Neri Sottoli’s Edoardo Zardini also fit this description.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Fabio Aru | 3. Fabio Duarte
Check back for the preview of the last stage of the 2014 Giro d’Italia after the Stage 20 finale atop Monte Zoncalan. Also, remember to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.
With the Giro coming to a close this weekend, now seems like a good time to point out that VeloHuman will be previewing the Criterium du Dauphine, the Tour de Suisse, and, of course, every stage of the Tour de France, so make sure you come back soon!
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