Stage 17: Tirano › Lugano – 134km
The fact that a climber (like stage winner Mikel Landa) would win Stage 16 was obvious from the profile alone, but the Stage 17 profile could be deceiving. It’s a mostly flat stage, with only a single categorized climb on offer (a very early Cat. 3) and just 134km of racing from start to finish (in Lugano, Switzerland). At first glance, it looks like a great day for the sprinters.
But we’re now into the Giro’s final week, and there will be some tired sprinters in the bunch. What’s more, the peloton just took on a brutal day of climbing, and there are more brutal days of climbing ahead. Combine those facts with the fact that the Giro peloton has already displayed an inability to control the breakaway on what appear to be clear sprinters’ days and you have a recipe for another potential opportunity to for the aggressors to steal one from the quick men.
I see it is a 50-50 proposition on this stage. So many sprinters have left the race that it will be harder for those remaining to do the job of keeping the breakaway controlled, but at the same time, this profile is one that should allow them to do so if they manage to stay organized. In any case, at least in terms of naming favorites, the three top sprinters left in this race are certainly stronger individual favorites than any one rider who trying his luck in the crapshoot that is getting into a breakaway on a stage like this. If it does come down to a sprint, a challenging finale with a few late corners will make this an exciting, if somewhat dangerous, stage finish.
Giacomo Nizzolo nearly came away with the elusive victory he has so long sought in the Giro d’Italia on Stage 13, but Sacha Modolo closed the door on him in the final 100 meters with a strong kick and a not-altogether-noble swerve toward the barriers. Still, Nizzolo looked quite strong there despite a complete lack of leadout support in the final 2km, and he’s shown several times in his career an ability to position himself well in a technical finale, even if he doesn’t always time his subsequent sprint kick successfully. This stage suits him, and he’s strong right now; if the breakers are caught, he has a great chance to finally get that win. Sacha Modolo meanwhile, with the powerful Lampre-Merida leadout to guide him to the line, has his own great chance here, a chance to double up on Giro victories. His teammates did a brilliant job to put him in position to win Stage 13, and they’ll be eager to do so again here. He’s looking strong right now too.
Elia Viviani obviously looked great on Stage 2, but since then he hasn’t been quite as impressive. Still, he should be right up there in terms of top speed with the remaining sprinters left in the race and therefore will be among the favorites in a potential sprint here on Stage 17.
Luka Mezgec has shown flashes of that sort of speed in the past but he’s been a bit lackluster in the sprints in this Giro. Giant-Alpecin is nearing the finish of a Grand Tour in which they’ve achieved very little, however, which could motivate them to perform here before the race goes back into the high mountains where they will have little opportunity to impact the events. Alessandro Petacchi, JJ Lobato, Moreno Hofland, and Davide Appollonio are other options for a potential sprint finish.
If a breakaway goes clear, strong engines Sylvain Chavanel (of Swiss team IAM Cycling) and Silvan Diller (of Switzerland) will be among the top riders to keep an eye on. Philippe Gilbert, Fabio Felline, Giovanni Visconti, and Patrick Gretsch are others on the list of riders who might have the energy to get up the road after a hard day in the mountains, though the list of riders with a chance here if Stage 17 does go to the breakaway is almost endless.
VeloHuman Stage 17 Favorites
1. Giacomo Nizzolo | 2. Sacha Modolo | 3. Elia Viviani
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 17 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!
-Dane Cash
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