Stage 18: Melide › Verbania – 170km
Sacha Modolo and the sprinters had their day on Stage 17, but now it’s back to the climber-friendly profiles. Stage 18 starts out flat, with stretch of 120 kilometers without any categorized ascending, but then the road kicks upward in the form of the vicious Monte Ologno climb, 10.4km at a very steep 9% average gradient. It’s followed by a bit of up and down before a long, fast descent into a flat final 5km.
The only categorized climb on the day is a tough one that should see GC action, but with two very hard mountain days to come, the GC types may allow the breakaway riders some leeway on this stage. And even if the early break is caught on the slopes of the climb, Tinkoff-Saxo and Astana may allow fringe overall contenders to get some space. In any case, the rider who wins this stage will need to have strong climbing skills, strong descending skills, and, probably, a decent finishing kick.
Several big-name all-rounders sitting outside the real GC contender conversation will be among the favorites, given the likelihood that this stage goes to a non-pink-jersey threat with an aggressive streak. Giovanni Visconti has all the necessary tools to thrive on this parcours, and he’s far enough back on the overall leaderboard that he may be able to ride ahead unchecked. He has been strong so far in this race. Teammate Beñat Intxausti may look to get up the road as well with the KOM points on offer at the top of the climb, and if he’s up there with enough of a gap, he might see if he can stretch an advantage to the finish line.
Carlos Betancur will be watching Intxausti closely. The Colombian still has a chance at the mountains classification, and this stage suits him very well given his explosive finishing kick. Either from the morning break, from a late move, or even from a reduced bunch coming to the line together, Betancur will be dangerous on Stage 18.
Ryder Hesjedal has been very active so far in the race, and despite being 10th overall now, he’s still no threat to the pink jersey and may be allowed to go up the road. Few of the other likely breakaway contenders can match him on this climb.
Ilnur Zakarin, Darwin Atapuma, Franco Pellizotti, Esteban Chaves, Mikel Nieve, Luis Leon Sanchez, and Stefano Pirazzi are others who could try to get up the road and win Stage 18 with a long-range move.
Steven Kruijswijk was a breakaway fixture early on in this race, but he’s managed to work his way into the GC picture and will probably be focused more on consolidating his gains there than trying to force his way up the road here. He’s still a threat if given space on the climb.
The Monte Ologno is difficult enough that we could see Alberto Contador and Mikel Landa and teammate Fabio Aru battling again, both for GC positions and potentially even for the stage win. If none of them is able to get separation, a very strong Yuri Trofimov might be able to slip away. Damiano Caruso and Rigoberto Urán will be among the top options to take the stage if it comes down to a sprint in a reduced bunch.
VeloHuman Stage 18 Favorites
1. Giovanni Visconti | 2. Carlos Betancur | 3. Mikel Landa
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 18 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!
-Dane Cash
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