Stage 4: Chiavari › La Spezia – 150km
Michael Matthews took Stage 3 of the Giro d’Italia, and he should like the looks of Stage 4 as well. The route contains only three officially categorized climbs, but a fair bit of up and down, and the final climb is crested 10 kilometers from the finish, with steep sections of over 10% near the top and with 7km of descent to follow before a flat run-in to the line.
It’s another day that will likely have the breakaway specialists hoping to make something happen, but this early in the race, and with so many versatile fast finishers on the startlist, the peloton should keep them within striking distance. A reduced sprint between the survivors of the sting in the tail of this route, the Biassa climb, seems the most likely outcome (and even if a break does make it, expect to see at least a few of the upcoming names trying their luck from afar too).
Orica-GreenEdge has more than option on this sort of parcours, with two of the best riders for a reduced sprint on the roster. Michael Matthews, wearing the pink jersey, is an obvious candidate after his victory on Stage 3. He shines in selective sprints. If some of the purer climbers inject the pace on the final ascent, he may have trouble maintaining his position, but the way he’s been riding this year, especially the way he was glued onto Philippe Gilbert’s wheel on the Cauberg in the Amstel Gold Race, would suggest that he’s capable of a challenge like this. If he can’t, Simon Gerrans might be able to take up the slack. This is a perfect parcours for Gerrans and on any other day he might be the very top favorite, but having the pink jersey wearer on his own team means he might defer to his compatriot here. Either way, both are dangerous, as is Simon Clarke.
Philippe Gilbert came close to the win in Stage 3, and this is another great profile for him, perhaps even better, with a late climb that could see him putting pressure onto his rivals. It’s a flat finish but he’s a strong sprinter who can outmatch most climbers.
Fabio Felline is also a great candidate, one who defeated Matthews and Gilbert both at a similar finish in País Vasco. He’s in great shape right now, and an excellent climber who should have no problem with the parcours. If this comes down to a reduced sprint, expect to see him up there again, probably fighting it out with the same names that battled for the win in Sestri Levante.
Diego Ulissi spent a lot of time in the breakaway on Stage 3, and in the end, did not contend for a finish that suited him quite well. He’s got a great sprint and he’s a terrific climber; for Ulissi, this stage will be all about whittling down the pack to the right combination of opponents that he can outlast in a bunch kick.
Juan José Lobato lost contact on the difficult profile of Stage 3 but he’ll have another chance here. Southeast’s Francesco Gavazzi, Bardiani-CSF’s Enrico Battaglin, EQS’s Gianni Meersman, and CCC’s Greg Bole are others on the list of in-between types with the versatility to handle some climbing and the finishing kicks to win a reduced sprint. A more selective day could see the likes of Tom-Jelte Slagter, Sergey Lagutin, Damiano Caruso, Paolo Tiralongo, Damiano Cunego, and speedy GC contender Rigoberto Urán in the mix. Of course, there’s always the possibility that the day isn’t so hard as to drop all of the purer sprinters, leaving a small window open for riders like André Greipel, Giacomo Nizzolo, Moreno Hofland, and Elia Viviani.
VeloHuman Stage 4 Favorites
1. Michael Matthews | 2. Fabio Felline | 3. Philippe Gilbert
Don’t forget to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race, and be sure to check back after the conclusion of Stage 4 for the preview of the next stage.
-Dane Cash
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