Stage 7: Grosseto › Fiuggi – 264km
Prior to the start, Stage 6 of the Giro d’Italia did not look like it was going to create many headlines, but a compelling first week of this race took another twist when Alberto Contador hit the deck hard in the finishing sprint as André Greipel was taking the stage victory. The Giro should offer yet another intriguing day of racing on Stage 7, the longest day of the race, with a parcours that could set up several different scenarios.
There is just one categorized climb on this stage, and it is a Cat. 4 at that, but second half of the profile, and in particular the final 50km, involve a lot of up-and-down. The finale in particular has some challenges—there is a short but somewhat steep climb with around 20km to go, then a sharp descent, then a stretch of over 5km at over 4%, followed by a flatter run-in to a finish that kicks up once again in the last kilometer. The final 350 meters rise at between 3 and 4%. It’s nothing terribly steep, but the riders are sure to hit it at a very high pace, and after a very long day, it’s going to hurt. The punchier riders are going to be able to hold their positions better into the finale, and they’ll also be better-suited to the finale because of it’s gradient.
The bumpy nature of this stage and its position just before a difficult mountain day will combine to make this a tough one to predict. It’s possible this comes down to a bunch sprint, with some of the purer sprinters holding on. With this finale, it’s also possible that Stage 7 puts the bigger quick men into difficulty, leaving the more versatile types to fight it out in a reduced sprint. And it’s always possible that a breakaway takes the win, bolstered by the fact that many will be saving energy for the difficult Stage 8 on the horizon. The breakaway scenario could also see some of those same versatile riders trying their luck with a long-range move, as well as several breakaway specialists.
Michael Matthews is the most obvious choice of favorites to win this stage in a sprint. He’s got the climbing chops to potentially survive the late bumps in the road and the finishing kick to be deadly the last few kilometers, even if there are other speedsters around.
JJ Lobato is also among the favorites, thanks to his top-notch uphill speed. Lobato thrives in a small uphill finishes, and that’s what this is. After a slow start to his Giro d’Italia, he seems to have found his legs. Fabio Felline, 2nd on Stage 3, should be able to hold on if this comes down to a group finish, and he’s a dangerous young rider in that potential scenario.
Philippe Gilbert is also a great uphill charger, who adds the breakaway factor to the conversation—he’s already been in a breakaway in this race, and he showed great form to take 3rd in that stage despite spending time out front and then getting caught by the pack. Gilbert is fully capable of winning this stage from the pack or from afar, and that makes him a top-level favorite.
Diego Ulissi would probably prefer more climbing, but like Gilbert, he’s a punchy finisher with the capacity to win with a long-range strike or in a reduced bunch sprint. Bardiani-CSF’s Sonny Colbrelli and Enrico Battaglin, Giant-Alpecin’s Simon Geschke, Southeast’s Francesco Gavazzi, Orica-GreenEdge’s Simon Gerrans and Simon Clarke, CCC’s Grega Bole, Katusha’s Luca Paolini, and IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler and Sylvain Chavanel are others with the versatility to be in the mix whether they stick with the peloton or go from afar. Adam Hansen, Giovanni Visconti, Maciej Paterski, and Stefano Pirazzi (as with most intermediate stages, Bardiani-CSF will be overflowing with options here) are among those who will likely need to be in the day’s breakaway to have a chance on Stage 7, but who will be very dangerous if they’re up there.
Giacomo Nizzolo told the Recon Ride that he’s interested in this stage, but it will be pretty tough for the purer sprinters like Nizzolo to survive those late climbs after such a long day. Still, it’s worth keeping an eye on Nizzolo and his bunch sprint rivals like André Greipel, Sacha Modolo, Elia Viviani, Luka Mezgec, and Moreno Hofland.
VeloHuman Stage 7 Favorites
1. Michael Matthews | 2. Philippe Gilbert | 3. Juan José Lobato
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and remember to check back after the conclusion of Stage 7 for the preview of the next stage.
-Dane Cash
Leave a Reply