Stage 8: Fiuggi › Campitello Matese – 186km
After Diego Ulissi’s second victory for Lampre-Merida in three days, the peloton will take on the first Cat. 1 climb of the Giro d’Italia in Stage 8.
The 186km journey from Fiuggi to Campitello Matese involves a whole lot of up-and-down, though only two of the climbs are categorized. From the start there are a few rollers leading into the Cat. 2 Forca d’Acero, which is extremely long for an ascent of that rating: 26km long and with a 5% gradient, it will most certainly wear down even the most adept climbers. From there the road takes a generally downward path, interrupted by a few upward stretches of not-insignificant length, toward the town of Isernia. Then it’s another mid-size uncategorized climb before the challenging final test to Campitello Matese. 13km at 6.9%, it’s not an awful road to the top but it won’t be comfortable for anyone after so many climbs on the day.
The profile should be pretty enticing for the breakaway, what with the constant up-and-down, and it will be very difficult for the pack to keep the break on a tight leash. Then again, the GC riders will almost certainly want to put the pressure on each other to try to open up the leaderboard at the top a bit, which could make it hard for those up the road to stay out front. What’s more, the upcoming Stage 9 looks even more perfect for the breakaway, and it offers an extra KOM opportunity, so those in pursuit of the blue jersey may be content to wait. It seems like a 50-50 proposition as to whether this one goes to the bunch or a morning breakaway.
Among the GC contenders in the bunch, Fabio Aru should be the favorite for success here. He has the most incentive to get separation on these mountain stages given his time trial skills, which are weaker than those of Alberto Contador and Richie Porte. He’s also looked sharp so far, and he has a powerful team around him. Mikel Landa’s GC position makes for a great asset to the team—Astana could send him up the road in pursuit of the stage win as well.
Alberto Contador also looks strong, but it remains to be seen how well he’ll cope with the challenges of the day. He looked okay on Stage 7 but this is a bigger test. With an almost guaranteed breakaway to come followed by a rest day and then a sprinters’ stage, he may try to take this easy. Teammate Roman Kreuziger is also high up on GC, and could be given a green light to go stagehunting here if he’s feeling good.
Richie Porte is the other obvious candidate. He’s climbed so well this early in this season that he’s got to be among the top favorites again here. The climbing on the day suits him quite well. Expect Porte to be aggressive trying to put his stamp on the race.
Esteban Chaves may get some leeway if he goes on the attack, and he’s looked good, if not fantastic, so far in the race. The same goes for Damiano Caruso and Darwin Atapuma; both are within 2 minutes on GC and strong enough climbers that it’s hard to tell whether the bunch would let them get clear or not, but if they do they’ll be dangerous—Atapuma in particular has looked great on the climbs this year.
Giovanni Visconti is amazingly within 1 minute of the Giro d’Italia race lead. He shouldn’t be a threat to the pink jersey in Milan, so despite his high position at the moment, he may be given the opportunity to go from afar—if he does, watch out, as he looks quite strong right now.
Stefano Pirazzi is no GC threat at all and he’s been aggressive, if not particularly successful, so far in this race. There are mountain points on offer here and a chance for Pirazzi to make his mark—I do wonder, though, whether he may want to keep his powder for the perfect breakaway day that awaits on Sunday instead, especially if other purer climbers manage to get into the Stage 8 early move. Edoardo Zardini and Francesco Bongiorno are other options for Bardiani-CSF. Lampre’s Przemyslaw Niemiec looks okay so far in the race but he’s down on GC after a poor opening TTT and then getting caught out in the crash-filled Stage 2 finale. He could try to go for one here. Ryder Hesjedal might as well; alternatively his teammate Tom Danielson has been very strong in the breakaways all year, winning the KOM jersey at the Volta a Catalunya, and this could be a nice opportunity for him.
Franco Pellizotti, Carlos Betancur, Igor Anton, Ilnur Zakarin, Ion Izagirre, and Beñat Intxausti are others on the very long list of potential long-range victory candidates.
VeloHuman Stage 8 Favorites
1. Fabio Aru | 2. Richie Porte | 3. Darwin Atapuma
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and remember to check back after the conclusion of Stage 8 for the preview of the next stage.
-Dane Cash
Leave a Reply