What better way to close out the Classics season than with the legendary Liège-Bastogne-Liège? The oldest Classic, Liège lives up to its status as a historic (said history covered in more detail in the most recent Recon Ride Podcast) springtime cycling icon with a challenging route that caters to aggressive types with strong climbing legs, and recent editions have offered no shortage of thrills. With most of the familiar veteran contenders and a host of young guns making start, the 2015 edition should not disappoint.
The Route
Liège-Bastogne-Liège is a long one at 253 kilometers, and the road from Liége to the finishing town of Ans is lined with difficult climbs (officially, there are ten). This is especially true in the final 90 kilometers of the race, where eight of the ten ascents big enough to warrant an icon on the official race profile await the peloton.
The last three in particular really put the hurt on, typically whittling down the peloton and launching attacks as well: the Côte de La Redoute (2 km at an average grade of 8.9%), the Côte de la Roche-aux-Faucons (1.5 km at an average grade of 9.4%), and the Côte de Saint-Nicolas (1.2 km at 8.6%). Saint-Nicolas, crested just 5 kilometers from the line, is a popular place to strike out for glory. The race finishes on a gradient as well, with a climb into Ans of more than a kilometer.
With the abundance of challenging climbs and a lot of kilometers between the start and the finish, Liège wears down the peloton, but also offers opportunities for those strong enough to get clear. Sometimes the race ends in a small sprint, but there are always attacks to be marshaled, and endurance and great climbing legs are critical here.
The Contenders
Last year’s winner Simon Gerrans looks to still be recovering from a crash, meaning that Orica-GreenEdge is probably riding for the likes of Michael Albasini. That might open up the contenders conversation a bit, but fresh off his third career Flèche Wallonne victory, two-time Liège winner Alejandro Valverde comes into the race as the hot favorite. His elite climbing legs and deadly finishing kick make him an obvious choice for this race, and the form he has shown recently confirm has status as the rider to beat this year.
Michal Kwiatkowski was 3rd last year and comes into this year’s edition with Amstel Gold Race-winning confidence. His already impressive sprint has clearly improved this year, and he’s a great solo artist. It won’t be easy to match the climbing legs of some of the star uphill chargers in this race, but if Kwiatkowski can survive some of the steeper sections of the road, he’ll be able to outsprint most of the contenders in the race or outpower them in a late break to the finish.
After his incredible Basque Country performance, Joaquim Rodríguez was a bit of a disappointment only coming in 4th at La Flèche Wallonne, but this is the grand prize and the one he’s been hunting for so long. The rare soloing form he showed in the País Vasco time trial could come in handy here, matched with his elite climbing ability. This is also a race where a strong team can make a big difference, and Katusha is among the strongest. Daniel Moreno and Giampaolo Caruso, both Top 10 finishers last year, are excellent cards to play for the Russian outfit.
Dan Martin won this race in 2013 and came close to winning in 2014 before a late crash ruined his shot at victory. He’s obviously a rider to watch, but he’ll be in unknown shape following a crash at La Fléche Wallonne. If he’s healthy, he’ll be in the mix to win. Tom-Jelte Slagter is a nice backup option in case he isn’t.
Philippe Gilbert is another former winner of the race in unknown health following a crash, though unlike Dan Martin, he’s not been as successful in recent years. He looked okay at the Amstel Gold Race but he was unable to stay clear at the top of the Cauberg. Health, form, and top-level ability at this point in his career are all question marks now.
Vincenzo Nibali and Jakob Fuglsang make a great 1-2 punch for Astana. Neither can win in a sprint, but both have great uphill ability and an aggressive streak. Watch for attacks from the light blue jerseys on a late climb like the Côte de la Roche-aux-Faucons. Also watch out for action from Lotto Soudal. Tim Wellens is hunting for glory in the Ardennes and his best shot at a top result is a long-range move. He’s not the best climber or the most powerful soloist on the startlist, but he seems to find an extra gear when he gets up the road on a Belgian climb. Jelle Vanendert and Tony Gallopin are excellent alternatives for the team. AG2R is another squad with multiple excellent options, among them, Romain Bardet and Domenico Pozzovivo, both Top 10 finishers last year.
Rui Costa, Sergio Henao, Roman Kreuziger, Bauke Mollema, Julián Arredondo, and Tom Dumoulin also have a chance at being in the mix in this race.
VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites
Winner: Alejandro Valverde
Podium: Michal Kwiatkowski, Joaquim Rodríguez
Other Top Contenders: Vincenzo Nibali, Tim Wellens, Dan Martin, Rui Costa, Domenico Pozzovivo, Tony Gallopin, Bauke Mollema
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis.
-Dane Cash
Photo by Les Meloures (CC).
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