Paris-Roubaix kicks off Sunday in Compiègne (which is actually about an hour from Paris by car), and this year’s edition of the race should be as interesting as ever.
The Route
257.5 kilometers from start to finish, the Paris-Roubaix parcours is pancake-flat, with 27 officially rated cobbled sectors. Even the less difficult sections are perilous, but things really heat up after 160km at the Arenberg Trench, the first “five-star” sector in terms of difficulty, the tenth official section on the day. It’s a narrow, 2.4km stretch of “road” that runs through a dense forest. The surface is brutal, and even a specialist can have it all go wrong bouncing around on the cobbles. Unfortunately, things don’t get a whole lot easier after that.
After eight more difficult stretches of cobbles comes Mons-en-Pévele, 3km long, another particularly nastry stretch. The riders will have less than 50km to go when they arrive, so you can expect attacks to fly from the more aggressive types.
If the race isn’t broken up by then, it almost certainly will be by the time the riders are through with the Carrefour de l’Arbre, the last major obstacle on the profile before an easier final three cobbled sectors. The Carrefour is a make or break 2.1km section that is tough enough to blow any group to pieces.
15 kilometers later those who have survived the trek over some of the most uncomfortable roads in cycling will arrive at the Roubaix velodrome to finish the race. It’s often the sight of a small sprint, though solo wins and larger sprint are possibilities as well.
The Contenders
2015 champ John Degenkolb won’t be defending his title due to injuries suffered in a training crash, but the startlist is still full of classics firepower.
Fabian Cancellara is in the hunt for his fourth career Paris-Roubaix victory Sunday in his last ever appearance at the race. The form he showed last weekend at the Tour of Flanders makes that seem like a real possibility. Roubaix suits his huge engine perfectly. With a solid team around him, Cancellara can mark early attacks right up to the point where he launches his own. His biggest challenge will be shedding the many contenders who might be potentially speedier in a sprint finish.
Peter Sagan fits the bill. He’s got the “when will you win a Monument?” monkey off his back now, and he’s on blazing form. However, Paris-Roubaix doesn’t suit him nearly as well as De Ronde. One of the things that sets him apart as a rider is his ability to leave other one-day specialists behind on short climbs and then seal the deal with his masterful descending abilities. He won’t be able to put those skills on display here. It won’t be as easy for the punchy world champ to leave his rivals behind on this profile.
Sep Vanmarcke, on the other hand, will appreciate the flatter parcours, at least when it comes to facing off against Sagan. He has looked very strong the past few races and has improved dramatically as a sprinter since he took runner-up honors in Roubaix in 2013. That makes him dangerous.
Alexander Kristoff can go toe to toe against anyone on this startlist in a sprint. He looked sharp in Flanders, and although he’s never had as much success in Paris-Roubaix, he can’t be counted out. He’ll need everything to go his way in a race notorious for doling out punctures, mechanicals, and even fan collisions at the worst possible moments, but if he can hang with the lead group he’s a big threat in the velodrome.
Etixx-QuickStep’s Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, and Tom Boonen form a powerful lead trio that can boast several Roubaix wins and podium performances. Four-time winner Boonen has looked decent so far this year but Stybar and Terpstra are probably better bets. I particularly like Terpstra’s chances — I wouldn’t be surprised to see a small group enter the last 10km together and he has already shown that he has the power to make his rivals pay if they hesitate even for a moment when he launches a late solo move.
Lars Boom, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Jurgen Roelandts, Tiesj Benoot, Luke Rowe, Ian Stannard, Jens Keukeleire, and Daniel Oss are others to watch.
VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites
Winner: Fabian Cancellara
Podium: Sep Vanmarcke, Peter Sagan
Other Top Contenders: Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, Alexander Kristoff, Tom Boonen, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Lars Boom, Luke Rowe
Photo by Dane Cash.