Day 10: Yellow Jersey Battle Shaping Up
In very broad strokes, stages 8 and 9 were what we expected: a select group of riders gained major ground in stage 8, and nobody picked up much time in stage 9, though a few riders fell out of contention.
But as far as how all that actually happened, and to what extent, the two days in the Pyrenees were quite surprising, and quite decisive for a number of riders. On the first day, Sky kept a impressive pace throughout the day, and didn’t panic when star riders like Nairo Quintana launched attacks on the slopes. The train just chugged along, dropping guys like Tejay van Garderen out of GC contention. Eventually, all attackers were reeled in, and on the final climb, Richie Porte put the hammer down like an Australian John Henry (sorry for all the railroad-oriented language) and laid waste to some big names. In the end, it was just Porte and Froome riding together with all other challengers in the rear view mirror, and then Froome swung out ahead of Porte and went off alone for the victory, with his captain riding in behind him some fifty seconds later. Valverde and Mollema came in next, over a minute down on Froome, and then Laurens Ten Dam and a surprising Mikel Nieve. Kreuziger, Contador, and Quintana were all 1:45 down on Froome, and Rodriguez, Costa, Martin, Talansky, and Fuglsang rolled in over two minutes behind the Sky leader. But things went well for these guys compared to Cadel Evans and Dani Moreno, who lost over four minutes, and Pinot and van Garderen, who found themselves out of contention for GC, six and twelve minutes back, respectively. A truly decisive day, and one from which yellow jersey favorites not named Chris Froome will have a lot of trouble recovering. Valverde mitigated his losses, but Contador and Rodriguez will have trouble taking back seconds, especially with a flat time trial coming up this week. To those wondering if Andy Shleck is finally back, he did manage to cross the line only three and a half minutes down.
Stage 9 was a day filled with attacks, and the madness hit Sky hard. Peter Kennaugh crashed into undergrowth beside the road and left the team down an important domestique. When Garmin and Movistar started attacking like crazy on every ascent, Sky found themselves struggling to reel in the constant barrage from the likes of Ryder Hesjedal and Nairo Quintana. Richie Porte, who clearly had little left in the tank after so much energy expended the day prior, lost touch and Sky was unable to give him as much support as they might have wanted. He tried chasing, but was ultimately called off the endeavor, proving a crucial difference between last year’s Wiggins-Froome duo and this year’s Froome-Porte duo: Porte is 100% commited to Froome’s victory, and everything else is secondary. Porte was integral to Froome’s huge time gap the day before, and he paid for it in stage 9. Still, Chris Froome was unbroken by the constant attempted breakaways, and by the final Cat 1 climb, a select group of strong climbers was riding together with no one ahead of them. Then, Garmin’s Dan Martin jumped ahead and did what he does best, gunning uphill toward the summit. Jakob Fuglsang joined him, and together, they descended skillfully for thirty kilometers, holding onto a few tens of seconds of a lead. Martin outsprinted Fuglsang for the stage win. Still, in terms of GC, they finished with only twenty seconds of a gap between themselves and the Froome group, which included all of the big favorites (among them Cadel Evans and even Andy Schleck, who sits in a somewhat surprising 15th place)… except for Richie Porte, who came in around eighteen minutes down with broken-ribbed Ryder Hesjedal. With the second-in-command’s chance at the podium done, Sky may have to alter strategy somewhat now that Porte going off the front won’t scare anyone for GC.
Stage 10: Saint-Gildas-des-Bois > Saint-Malo 197km Flat
It’s a day for the sprinters, with a Cat 4 climb, but otherwise, not much to break up the pack. It looks like a perfect day for the big boys, Cavendish, Greipel, and Kittel. Hard to pick from among these guys. Greipel seems a solid choice for the leadout friendly finish.
Stage Favorites:
1. Andre Greipel | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. Marcel Kittel
Stage 11: Avranches > Mont-Saint-Michel | 33km | ITT
An incredibly scenic time trial that will provide plenty of helicopter shots… It’s flat, but fortunately for Contador et al, it’s relatively short, meaning it will be difficult for Chris Froome to pick up too much time on his climbing-oriented rivals. Tony Martin seems to be recovered from his stage 1 crash, and if so, he’s the favorite to win the day, though Froome winning wouldn’t surprise anyone. If Tejay van Garderen has recovered from his curious case of being terrible, he should challenge for a top spot as well. Of the GC types, Contador and Valverde are both decent time trialists, and so are Kwiatkowsi and Fuglsang and of course Cadel Evans. Nairo Quintana has surprising ability for all his “climbing” specialist label. On the other hand, Joaquim Rodriguez, Daniel Martin, and Laurens Ten Dam will all be doing their best to keep their losses slight. Tipping a non-GC name in a Grand Tour time trial can be difficult, simply because some guys take it easy in order to rest for their domestique duties: Tanel Kangert seriously let the VeloHuman Procycling (fantasy) squad down in the Giro when he decided to use the stage 18 time trial as a recovery ride to best prepare to help Nibali in the mountains. I would imagine that Richie Porte would have an excellent day, but he has shown that he’s willing to put his own dreams aside for Froome. Edvald Boasson Hagen might dig this stage, too, it being a short TT, something he’s in which he is quite capable of performing. Sylvain Chavanel, Peter Velits, Svein Tuft, and Cameron Meyer are other guys who could place highly. My pick to surprise is Movistar’s Jonathan Castroviejo. He’s nowhere close in GC so who knows, but he has the ability to time trial with the best of them.
Stage Favorites:
1. Tony Martin | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Peter Velits
Watch Out For:
Jonathan Castroviejo
Stage 12: Fougères > Tours | 218km | Flat
Another flat day, and I am running out of things to say about these sorts of stages. It’s a rather long stage, but there are only small bumps to keep things interesting. I’d imagine it’ll be the usual suspects at the finish line, and I’m hard-pressed to pick one over the other but more often than not I’d take Cavendish on a garden-variety flat stage.
Stage Favorites:
1. Andre Greipel | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. Marcel Kittel
Stage 13: Tours > Saint-Amand-Montrond | 173km | Flat
There is a Cat 4 climb early, and then an uncategorized but surprisingly steep little hill only a few kilometers from the finish. Perhaps things will get interesting if Gilbert is sick of all the “when will he win?” talk and decides to attack on the climb? Probably not. It is likely that everyone makes it to the mass sprint, but I like Cavendish, Sagan, and Kristoff most here.
Stage Favorites:
1. Mark Cavendish | 2. Peter Sagan | 3. Alexander Kristoff
Stage 14: Saint-Pourçain-sur-Sioule > Lyon | 191km | Medium Mountains
With seven categorized climbs (five Cat 4s and a pair of 3s), this stage might have breakaway written all over it if it weren’t for Peter Sagan and his pack of Cannondale supporters. As effectively as they handled stage 7, it’s hard to pick against them here, though even if they do manage to reel in any early breakaways, a pair of Cat 4s less than 20 km from the finish could be a springboard for the always hungry Sylvain Chavanel or Gilbert. If the pack finishes together minus the Greipel-types, Sagan seems the easy favorite, with Edvald Boasson Hagen and true all-rounder Michal Kwiatkowski (assuming he goes for it now that he is placed so highly in GC) as other possible contenders. It could be a good day for Orica-GreenEdge’s Simon Gerrans or Daryl Impey to jump ahead late, as well.
Stage Favorites:
1. Peter Sagan | 2. Edvald Boasson Hagen | 3. Michal Kwiatkowski
Watch Out For:
Daryl Impey, Simon Gerrans
-Dane Cash
Photo by schlaeger.
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