Stage 11: Besançon › Oyonnax – 187.5 km
The Tour’s eleventh stage follows its first rest day, a break the peloton desperately needed after Monday’s brutal stage that saw the abandonment of Alberto Contador and a hard-fought uphill battle (won by Vincenzo Nibali) to close out the day. The Stage 11 profile is not a flat one, but its hills pale in comparison to the Vosges climbs that injected pain into hundreds of legs over the weekend. It will be a welcome change for most of the riders in the Tour de France. Still, the climbs will play a role in how Stage 11 plays out; the toughest ascents of the stage come in quick succession as the day reaches its conclusion, with four categorized climbs less than 30 kilometers apart. Following the final Cat. 3, there is an uncategorized bump in the road and then a technical descent to Oyonnax and the finish line.
The rolling profile makes this another good opportunity for a breakaway to succeed. It’s probably just a bit too challenging for the heavier sprinters, which will reduce the amount of fierpower committed to the chase. The barrage of late hills late and the long descent that follows will make it difficult for anyone to control the race even if they tried. However, this sort of intermediate stage is one of the few (along with the next day’s stage) in the race that isn’t likely to be dominated by a pure sprinter or a climbing star, making for a more open competition: almost every team in the Tour de France will try to take advantage of the opportunity to pick off a win. If a few strong teams miss the break, they’ll commit to reeling things in, and though this profile is lumpy, it’s not so lumpy as to guarantee the break’s success.
The “favorites” (with the usual caveat that that is a loaded term on breakaway-friendly stages) will be decent climbers with either fast finishes or good soloing skills to try to escape late and maintain a gap on the descent.
Cannondale’s Peter Sagan is the number one rider to watch on the stage. He shouldn’t struggle with the climbs, he’s a masterful descender, and he’s obviously a fast finisher. Dealing with the day’s breakaway will be his biggest challenge. He may try to get into the break himself, or he may go for this one from the pack, which would mean a lot of time on the front for his team. That versatility is what makes him such a strong contender.
The same is true for both Simon Gerrans and Michael Albasini of Orica-GreenEdge. In Stage 7’s sprint finish, Gerrans looked to have recovered the strength he lost in his opening stage crash. The Stage 11 profile suits him perfectly, with an opportunity to escape on a late climb, or the possibility of a reduced sprint. Teammate Michael Albasini is another excellent option: the Swiss veteran is an expert at picking the right moves, and he’s got a fast finish, too. Orica-GreenEdge will have a lot of flexibility with this duo: they can try to put one of them into the breakaway and let the other ride it out in the pack, to cover both scenarios. Whether or not the stage goes to the break or to the peloton could hinge on whether Peter Sagan and at least one Orica-GreenEdge rider make it into the move: if not, Cannondale and OGE can be expected to get involved in the chase early.
Trek’s Fabian Cancellara would be another top choice, but he has abandoned the race to focus on other objectives. Fellow classics protagonist BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet is still here, however, and he could be a contender thanks to his blend of good climbing legs, strong solo prowess, and a fast finish. OPQS has the quality duo of Jan Bakelants and Matteo Trentin to take on the difficult challenge of deciding between breakaway and peloton; both are excellent on hilly days and Trentin in particular is a dangerous option if he is in whatever group is fighting for the win when the day nears its conclusion. FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, Lotto Belisol’s Tony Gallopin, Garmin-Sharp’s Tom-Jelte Slagter, AG2R’s Samuel Dumoulin, Cofidis’s Julien Simon, Movistar’s JJ Rojas, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati, and Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas are other top contenders who could win Stage 11 from either the break or the peloton.
If things do come back together at the end, it could be all about which of the big name sprinters survive the late climbs. Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb might be a top favorite were it not for the injury he suffered early on in this race. He’s still a rider to watch; normally, he’d be targeting this stage, which is probably too difficult for Marcel Kittel. Fellow German Andre Greipel can climb better than most people realize. This still might be a bit too much to ask, but if things regroup for a sprint and he does survive the bumpy road, he will obviously be a top favorite. Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff has a chance to hold on over the climbs, though this stage may not be long enough to favor his skillset even if he does. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare can normally handle a hill or two, but as of yet he has not looked recovered from injuries sustained crashing earlier in the Tour. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s Michael Morkov also have a shot of making it over the late bumps to contest a sprint if it should come to that.
Other candidates will be more reliant on the breakaway’s chances. In addition to their duo of versatile fast finishers (Bennati and Morkov), Tinkoff-Saxo suddenly has a stable of options for breakaway success now that team leader Alberto Contador is out of the race. They’ll still be hoping to get something out of the Tour de France, and all-rounder talents Mick Rogers, Nicolas Roche, and Rafal Majka will be dangerous stagehunters with breakaway ambitions. Europcar’s Tommy Voeckler could give the early move another go after spending a long (and ultimately unsuccessful) day out front on Stage 10. His teammate Cyril Gautier may be a better option; the younger Gautier has looked sharp so far, while Voeckler has not looked his best. IAM Cycling’s Sylvain Chavanel is always a strong candidate to go for a long-distance win. On this profile and with Degenkolb still questionable, Tom Dumoulin may be the best option for Giant-Shimano; he’s been impressive on all levels of his game in this race; his soloing ability is well-known, but he has also flashed a decent sprint on two separate stages and he is showing off his able climbing legs with his Top 30 position on GC. Movistar’s Giovanni Visconti, Belkin’s Lars Boom and Sep Vanmarcke, OPQS’s Tony Martin, Trek’s Jens Voigt, and Cofidis’s Nicolas Edet are other potential long-range protagonists who could have a shot.
On the off-chance that the GC contenders try to mix things up on Stage 11, watch out for a fast finisher like Alejandro Valverde, a strong descender like Vincenzo Nibali, or Michal Kwiatkowski, who qualifies as both.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Peter Sagan | 2. Simon Gerrans | 3. Greg Van Avermaet
Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 11, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.
-Dane Cash
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