Stage 2: York › Sheffield – 201 km
After a chaotic finale that saw Mark Cavendish and Simon Gerrans hit the deck very hard and Marcel Kittel ride on to win the day, the opening stage of the 2014 Tour de France is officially in the books. The excitement should continue on Stage 2, and hopefully for more positive reasons. As wild as the finish to the first stage was, for most of the day the riding was pretty tame, as a flat profile led to a mostly controlled journey, but things will be quite different on the second stage. Undulating is too gentle a word for the profile. With seven categorized climbs in the final 90 kilometers, all of them at 6% or greater, and a few uncategorized ascents climb to boot, Stage 2 has the look of an Ardennes Classic. The last four categorized ascents come in quick succession, closing out with the Jenkin Road climb with just 5 kilometers remaining. It is only 800 meters long but at a wicked 10.8% average grade. The barrage of late uphill tests are sure to inspire attacks. And while it obviously isn’t as long as Liege-Bastogne-Liege, it is the second longest stage in the first two weeks of the race at 201 kilometers; anyone still searching for Grand Tour form could get worn down and found out early. The high mountains may still be a ways off, but Stage 2’s journey from York to Sheffield should offer plenty of fireworks.
Given the profile, it seems likely that the stage will come down to either a late attack, or a sprint among the day’s survivors. As early as it is in the Tour de France, the former will be hard-earned, as the GC squads will be determined to deny any opportunists a chance to get ahead. However things play out, the explosive, well-rounded types with the versatility to win either in a late move or from a reduced sprint will be the favorites for victory.
Cannondale’s Peter Sagan will be the top favorite for Stage 2. Unlike most of his sprinting rivals, he should be able to handle the constant up-and-down, and he has the ability to win the day with an aggressive strike or from a sprint. This stage looks made for his versatile array of talents, and he proved in the Tour de Suisse and again in the first stage that he’s on excellent all-around form right now.
Orica-GreenEdge’s Simon Gerrans is another top contender, for many of the same reasons, with the biggest question mark being his health following his crash. The 2014 Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner relishes a profile like this, with plenty of opportunities to attack, or at least to whittle down the pack. An excellent puncheur, he will be one of the most dangerous men in the peloton if he does decide to make a late move, but don’t underestimate his sprint either: he actually defeated Sagan in a reduced sprint in the 2013 Tour de France. Unfortunately, his hard fall near the Harrogate finish line will cloud his chances for Stage 2; it’s hard to know how well he will feel after such a bad crash. Teammate Michael Albasini could be another option, especially as a card to play on the late climbs.
Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde, one of the most successful Ardennes riders of his generation, is an obvious choice here; for him, motivation could be the determining factor. While he, too, could contend for Stage 2 in a variety of ways, he may be more concerned with staying safe for GC. If he does decide to get into the mix, he will be a strong candidate for victory.
Behind Gerrans and Valverde at Liege-Bastogne-Liege was Michal Kwiatkowski of Omega Pharma-Quick Step. He has all the tools for success, but his form is questionable right now. If he’s feeling good, he will be a contender. GC riders other than Valverde and Kwiatkowski who could find themselves among the favorites if the pack really starts to thin out include Bauke Mollema and Rui Costa.
The difficult profile, and the likelihood of an animated race, will probably be too much for “pure” sprinters Marcel Kittel and Andre Greipel. (Mark Cavendish may be out of the race with a shoulder injury after his crash; even if he makes the start it seems unlikely that he’ll be capable of contending). Obviously if one of the big sprinters is there at the finish, he will be a favorite, but it will be a big ask. Kittel’s teammate John Degenkolb, however, leads a select group of non-Sagan sprinters who at least have a chance of surviving the difficult day. Also in this group are Movistar’s JJ Rojas, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati, and FDJ’s Arnaud Demare and, to a lesser extent, Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff and Lampre-Merida’s Sacha Modolo. I wouldn’t really call him a sprinter, but fast-finishing Ramunas Navardauskas (3rd on the opening stage) could excel in a reduced sprint as well.
Quite a few riders stand out as potential protagonists for late attacks. Garmin-Sharp’s Tom-Jelte Slagter, FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, Lotto Belisol’s Tony Gallopin, Europcar’s Tommy Voeckler, and, if he is feeling up to it, Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez will like the short, steep challenges that Stage 2 has to offer. Fabian Cancellara, Sylvain Chavanel, Greg Van Avermaet, Jan Bakelants, and Geraint Thomas are all strong soloists with the climbing legs to put in a long distance strike.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Peter Sagan | 2. Simon Gerrans | 3. Michal Kwiatkowski
Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary on this and every stage of the 2014 Tour de France! The preview of Stage 3 will be up soon after the conclusion of Stage 2, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall Tour de France preview can be found here.
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