Stage 20 (ITT): Bergerac › Périgueux – 54 km
Following the victory of Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas on Stage 19, there are only two days of racing left in the 2014 Tour de France. Stage 20 is the Tour’s only time trial. A chrono in the penultimate stage of the race might have been an epic final battle for the yellow jersey, but Vincenzo Nibali has that pretty much wrapped up. The remaining steps on the podium, however, are still in play, and a fierce fight will rage between three riders for those two spots. Stage honors are obviously up for grabs as well.
At 54 kilometers, this is quite a long time trial. The stage has a rolling profile from start to finish, but there are no categorized climbs on the docket; these are not challenging ascents, and they won’t offer much solace to the climbing specialists. The intermittent descents will be taken at pretty high speed, but the route is not terribly technical, which most of the riders will appreciate given a possibility for a bit of rain.
It’s the sort of time trial that favors the high-endurance riders, and one stands head and shoulders above the rest in this race. Reigning ITT World Champ Tony Martin will be the big favorite for the stage. He’s obviously a massive talent, but he’s also in stellar shape right now. On this long course, one tailored towards the real power specialists, it would be a big surprise for anyone to outmatch the German on Stage 20.
Tom Dumoulin is a great young talent, yet another rising star on the Giant-Shimano roster. The 2014 Dutch National Champion can handle a roller or two, making this a nice route for him. He was 2nd to Tony Martin in both time trials in this year’s Tour de Suisse. This chrono is a bit longer than those in which he’s been most successful in the past, but in the absence of many other top specialists against the clock, he’s a contender behind the heavy favorite, Tony Martin.
It’s been some time since Tejay van Garderen has put in a truly stellar time trial, but this has typically been a strong suit of his, and he looks to be on good form now. He should be able to land a top result.
Jean-Christophe Peraud has always been great against the clock, and in the shape he’s in at the moment, he will be another favorite among the GC contenders. Crashing during a rainy time trial ruined his 2013 Tour campaign; hopefully he can overcome that challenge this year.
Vincenzo Nibali has had a lot of success in time trials recently, and the way he’s been riding in this Tour, he’s likely to continue that run of great results. It’s a nice course for him, with a few hills and a chance to shine on the descents. He has shown a desire to assert his dominance at every possible opportunity in the Tour de France, and I don’t think he’ll make an exception on Stage 20.
Michal Kwiatkowski of OPQS is not showing the sort of form in this Tour that he displayed early in the season, but in a time trial, all he needs is one good hour in the saddle. At his best he’s an elite chrono talent. The profile suits him perfectly, and he won’t mind a bit of rain either.
Sylvain Chavanel of IAM Cycling has not had a great year but he is the reigning French National Champ in the discipline. This stage is a big target for him. OPQS’s Niki Terpstra, OGE’s Svein Tuft and Luke Durbridge, Sky’s Richie Porte, Geraint Thomas, and Vasil Kiryienka, Astana’s Lieuwe Westra and Tanel Kangert, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Michael Rogers, NetApp-Endura’s Jan Barta, and Movistar’s Ion Izagirre are others who could put in strong rides on Stage 20.
FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot is not known for his time trialing skills, but he’s been strong against the clock this year, and on this form (and with the benefit of being able to gauge his efforts against almost every other rider, courtesy of starting late in the day) he could surprise some people. Alejandro Valverde, Spain’s National Champ in the ITT, is a good chrono rider, but he can’t afford to underestimate Pinot’s ability if he wants to stand on the podium in Paris.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Tony Martin | 2. Vincenzo Nibali | 3. Tom Dumoulin
There are only two stages left in this year’s Tour de France, but be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live analysis of both of them, and of every WorldTour race left on the calendar. Also, check out VeloHuman’s brand new Facebook page to stay up-to-date with every post. The next preview will be up following the conclusion of Stage 20.
Lastly, an important note: while the Tour may be nearing its conclusion, VeloHuman is nowhere near done for the year! There are still rider interviews to come and plenty of favorites and outsiders to be named for races like the Vuelta a España, Il Lombardia, and the World Championship Road Race, so even after the last rider crosses the finish line on the Champs-Élysées, stay tuned for a whole lot more in 2014.
-Dane Cash
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