Stage 15: Mende › Valence – 183km
Sandwiched between two days with relatively difficult late climbs, the 15th stage of the Tour de France has a profile that could give the sprinters one last chance at stage glory before Paris—but things will likely be harder than they look on the road to Valence.
The riders will be climbing immediately off the startline, with an uncategorized uphill drag into the Cat. 3 Côte de Badaroux on tap right away. Expect some of the more aggressive climbing specialists to attempt an early break on the way up. From the top it’s a relatively flat road to the next categorized climb almost 60 kilometers later, but said Cat. 4, the Col du Bez, is immediately followed by another, the Col de la Croix de Bauzon. Then comes a very long descent down to the intermediate sprint at Aubenas.
From there, it’s only a short way to the foot of the final climb of the day, the Cat. 2 Col de l’Escrinet, 7.9km long at a 5.8% average gradient. From the top of the climb it’s another long descent, about 25 kilometers, into a flat and relatively straightforward final 30 kilometers.
The climbs are not especially hard, and the long flat stretch into the finish line will give the sprinters hope for a bunch kick, but they’ll have to reel in the breakaway first. The race is about to enter a challenging stretch of Alpine stages, and the peloton might be hoping to make it through Stage 15 without too much trouble on the way to one more medium mountain stage and then a much-needed rest day before the GC action picks up.
If the break is caught, it will be thanks to a few dedicated sprinters’ teams hoping for a last shot at stage glory before the Alps, and the chase will have likely taken something out of the pack, which could give a boost to the stronger, more versatile quick men despite the pan-flat finish. The Col de l’Escrinet is not an easy bump in the road either, and it could further wear down some of the heavier quick men.
Etixx-QuickStep will have the option of riding hard to keep Mark Cavendish in play for a sprint, or riding less hard to get the more versatile Matteo Trentin into position for a bunch kick. Cav is probably the first option, and if he’s in the lead group in the final few kilometers, he will be hard to beat, but that’s far from a given. Trentin is a strong alternative.
André Greipel and Cavendish seem pretty closely matched right now, but I think Cavendish still has the speed to win all things being equal (though the disparity in positioning in the first two bunch sprints stages in the Tour are good reminders that Tour de France sprints don’t occur in a vacuum). In any case, a lot of things will have to go right for both of them for that to be the scenario that decides the stage.
Peter Sagan has come remarkably close to stage victories even on the flattest days so far in this race, thanks to his excellent form at the moment. He’ll have a chance in a big bunch sprint here, but a day spent in the breakaway on Stage 14 and the brutal finishing climb at the end of that stage probably took something out of him. Having to go for every intermediate sprint doesn’t really help. It seems unlikely that he’ll be in the break again, so Sagan, like the other quick men, will probably need to rely on the catch being made to have any shot at victory, and then he’ll need to beat other quick men who may have a bit more in the tank.
John Degenkolb should be in prime position to take advantage of a potential sprint after a moderately challenging day, and a probably tired Peter Sagan. He’s quick enough to win sprint finishes as it is, and the parcours and race situation are likely to weigh in his favor. Stage 15 offers a much better chance for Degenkolb to pick up his first career Tour win than the finale in paris will be—though that’s all assuming the break is caught.
Alexander Kristoff has not had quite the same level of success in the 2015 Tour that he had in 2014, but the stage suits his skillset. Arnaud Démare, Davide Cimolai, Tyler Farrar, Greg Van Avermaet, Michael Matthews and Bryan Coquard are others with a chance at success if this comes down to the pack.
Naming potential breakaway candidates for this stage is tough because it’s not quite as difficult a stage as those that have preceded it, or those that are about to follow, lengthening the already long list of riders who could have a shot at taking a win from afar.
Simon Geschke has a fast finishing kick and a knack for getting up the road—he’s come close to big Grand Tour wins in the past and this is an excellent parcours for him.
Edvald Boasson Hagen has not quite lived up to expectations in the past few stages, but his ability to get up the road and his powerful finishing kick make him a good breakaway contender for Stage 15.
The same could be said for Sylvain Chavanel—he has not made much of an impression on this Tour de France but the Stage 15 profile suits him very well, with plenty of space for him to power clear for a solo bid, or potentially hold out for a small group sprint from a breakaway.
Jan Barta, Ryder Hesjedal, Jan Bakelants, Ramunas Navardauskas, Thomas De Gendt, Lars Bak, Michal Kwiatkowski, and Sep Vanmarcke are others to watch out for in a long-range move.
VeloHuman Stage 15 Favorites
1. John Degenkolb | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. André Greipel
Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 15.
-Dane Cash