Stage 7: Livarot › Fougères – 190.5km
Zdenek Stybar made the most of a small gap earned on a late climb to come away with a stage victory on Stage 6, denying a charging pack of chasers on his tail. Many of those same chasers, along with a number of the heavier quick men they left behind on the final ascent, will be hopeful for another chance at glory on Stage 7. The 190.5-kilometer road from Livarot to Fougères includes just one categorized climb, a Cat. 4 in the first 15 kilometers. After that, it’s gentle rollers and stretches of flat all the way to the finish.
There are a few twists and turns and roundabouts inside the last 10 kilometers, which lead into a finishing straight that angles slightly uphill in the final few hundred meters. With several GC-oriented days (in the form of a few climber-friendly stages with a team time trial squeezed in among them) just around the corner at the Tour de France, Stage 7 will be a prime opportunity for the sprinters to fight for a victory before their aspirations take a backseat for a while to the hopes of the yellow jersey contenders.
Coming into the Tour, Mark Cavendish looked to be the strongest sprinter in the race, but he’s been beaten twice now by André Greipel, making the pecking order of fast-finishing elite in this race a bit less clear. In both of Greipel’s wins, though, the leadout did not go according to plan for Cavendish, leaving the Manx sprinter in the wind for far too long—that makes it difficult to draw concrete conclusions about this matchup in terms of pure speed. On the other hand, Greipel’s acceleration on Stage 5 was quite an impressive sight by any measurement, and the way he blew past Cavendish in the final few hundred meters makes it hard to ignore just how strong he is right now.
In short, I see this as pretty close to a dead heat. If I had to deem one the favorite, I’d still name Cavendish the rider to beat. QuickStep has, amazingly, won two stages and taken the yellow jersey in the first week of the Tour de France all without a Cavendish victory. If they can finally muster all their talents toward setting their sprinter up for a high-speed finish, he’ll be hard to beat. If not, Greipel has shown that he’s quite capable of taking advantage of the opportunity.
In terms of racking up near misses at stages that seem to suit him perfectly, Peter Sagan has picked up in this Tour de France right where he left off in the 2014 edition of the race. He’ll have another chance here, and in fact, I think he has a better shot that the profile might suggest. With a slight incline at the very end of the day, a few late roundabouts that favor his strong positioning skills, and the terrific form he’s shown in the sprints these past few days, he should be in the mix for the win even against the likes of Cavendish and Greipel.
John Degenkolb would probably prefer a more challenging approach to the line but he brings a lot of speed to the table in any scenario and should be able to fight for the win. Like Sagan, he’s had multiple near-victories, and is extremely motivated to finally take that elusive victory. Alexander Kristoff has been a bit slow to start in this Tour but he was in the mix on Stage 5 and this stage suits him well. Arnaud Démare, Greg Van Avermaet, Sam Bennett, Bryan Coquard, Davide Cimolai, and Edvald Boasson Hagen are others who should have a shot here.
VeloHuman Stage 7 Favorites
1. Mark Cavendish | 2. André Greipel | 3. Peter Sagan
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-Dane Cash