On the heels of Mark Cavendish’s big sprint victory on Stage 7, the Tour de France heads into a stretch of more GC-oriented days, starting with the 181.5-kilometer Stage 8. It is another day that could come down to a showdown near the finish, but a steep climb to the line will bring a different set of riders to the fore.
The action kicks off in Rennes, Brittany. The first half of the stage is mostly flat, with the first of two categorized climbs finally appearing around the midway point of the action. It’s only a Cat. 4, and not likely to see much of a shakeup. That climb is followed by a descent and then a few gentle ups and downs, which roll all the way to the finish, where things will get interesting.
Stage 8 finishes atop the Mûr-de-Bretagne climb, 2 kilometers in length with a challenging average gradient of 6.9%—but the average gradient doesn’t tell the full story. The first kilometer of the ascent has sections in the double digits, and averages just under 10%. After this steep opener, things ease off in the second half of the climb, with the gradient gradually decreasing into the final 500 meters, which angle upward at only 2.4%.
The vicious gradients that open the Mûr-de-Bretagne will keep the traditional sprinters from contending for the stage victory. That will, in turn, likely lead to a less organized chase in the bunch, which could help out any breakaway riders who manage to get up the road. What’s more, the upcoming team time trial will probably have the GC teams inclined to take this stage easy, rather than putting the pressure on all day. There are bonus seconds on offer at the line, and there are plenty of strong puncheurs in this race who will have a great chance at this finish if their teams keep the stage under control, but the early break does have a very real chance at going the distance on this stage—it seems to be about a 50/50 proposition to me. As such, no rider should be seen as “the favorite” for the stage, though there are plenty of riders who will be favored if they are in the lead group inside the final 10 kilometers: the battle for stage honors, whether that battle is being fought within a small group of breakers or the larger bunch, will likely come down to the final climb, which will suit riders that have some combination of strong climbing legs and a fast finish.
If the pack is able to reel in the early move, Joaquim Rodríguez, who won on the Mur de Huy a few days ago, will like the look of this one. He has flashed strong form in this Tour, and he has both the climbing prowess to launch a move early on this climb, and the finishing kick to outsprint a small group around him if he nears the finish line with company. Having the also explosive Giampaolo Caruso gives Katusha options.
At his best, Alejandro Valverde would love this profile, but form has been a question mark for Valverde so far in this Tour de France. On the Mur de Huy, where he won earlier this season in La Flèche Wallonne, he was unable to muster even a Top 10. This is another opportunity for him to use a skillset tailormade for this sort of finale, but his inability to make much an impact on this Tour so far can’t be ignored on a stage where he’d otherwise probably rank as my top favorite. Valverde’s teammate Nairo Quintana will be a rider to watch as well with this gradient—the diminutive Colombian doesn’t have Valverde’s top speed but few riders are as dangerous on gradients in the double digits. With a likelihood of gaps in this finale, Quintana will be locked in and should be in the mix at the front of the pack.
Dan Martin showed great form on Stage 3 on his way to 4th place, a result that would have been better if he hadn’t been way behind the head of the race before starting his charge through the ranks of riders struggling to make it to the top of the Mur. The extreme gradients on the lower slopes of that climb may have hindered Martin, who is very explosive but has never favored the double-digit slopes. The Mûr-de-Bretagne will be another great opportunity for him if this does come down to a group finish, especially with more space between the 10% gradient and the finish line in which Martin can make up ground he loses to the more effective climbers.
Chris Froome doesn’t have the Ardennes track record of Purito, Valverde, or Martin, but he’s an elite climber with an elite team around him that is fully dedicated to putting him into the perfect position for the uphill finishes. He was very strong on the Mur de Huy, and if this comes down to the GC men, I’d bet he’ll be right up there again here on Stage 8, with bonus seconds on the line. GC rival Vincenzo Nibali was not all that far behind, rolling across the line in 7th on Stage 3. Already down more than a minute on Froome, Nibali could try to get clear on the climb to earn a few seconds back on GC.
Peter Sagan won’t be able to match the GC favorites on the high gradients, but could hang on for the easier final kilometer if no one is too aggressive early on. The main factor playing against Sagan is the fact that the team may have him on domestique duty to help Alberto Contador, who is also a danger with this sort of gradient so close to the line.
A kilometer at over 9% might just be too much to ask of John Degenkolb, but he will have a shot at stage honors here if the pack can reel in the early breakaway. Rui Costa has been quiet so far in this Tour but should like this finish, as should another fast-finishing fringe GC contender, Bauke Mollema. Warren Barguil, a more-explosive-than-many-realize Tejay van Garderen, Robert Gesink, AG2R’s Romain Bardet and a surprising Alexis Vuillermoz, and Rigoberto Urán are others who could thrive in this finale if things come together before the line.
Tony Gallopin has the versatility to challenge for victory here in a variety of scenarios. He’s deadly in a long-range move, and capable in a reduced sprint as well. With the ability to weigh his options and determine his strategy out on the road, Gallopin has a great chance here. Teammate Tim Wellens is another rider to watch—he’s a smart attacker who can be very dangerous in a breakaway. Edvald Boasson Hagen, Michal Kwiatkowski, Zdenek Stybar, Julian Arredondo, and Simon Yates are just a few of the other riders who can threaten for stage success either from the breakaway or from the bunch.
VeloHuman Stage 8 Favorites
1. Joaquim Rodríguez | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Tony Gallopin
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 8. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.
-Dane Cash