The tune-up races are in the books. It’s time for the real deal. The Tour de France kicks off Saturday in Normandy, and this year’s edition is set to be a good one, with a competitive group of multiple top contenders vying to take home yellow.
The Route
In comparison to Tours of decades past, the 2016 Tour is a climber-friendly race. Compared to last year’s Tour, however, this year’s event is a much more balanced affair, with a pair of time trials along the route.
The race kicks off with six flat or rolling days for the sprinters and stagehunters. The GC action probably won’t kick off until Stage 7, but from the stage start in L’Isle-Jourdain it’s three straight days for the climbers, culminating in an hors-categorie finishing climb to Arcalis on Stage 9.
The mountain triad is followed by a rest day and two sprint stages before Mont Ventoux on Stage 12.
Then comes a crucial 37.5-kilometer time trial. There are a pair of uphill stretches, but it should be a day that favors the specialists.
After a sprinter’s Stage 14, Stage 15 involves six categorized climbs, including the one-two punch of an hors-categorie followed by a Cat. 1 late on in the day.
The flattish Stage 16 precedes the Tour’s last rest day. Four straight GC days then stand between the peloton and the race finish in Paris.
Stage 17 closes out with an hors-categorie climb to Finhaut-Emosson. Stage 18 is the second time trial, a bumpy 17km affair. Stage 19, 146km from Albertville to Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc, will be a serious challenge for the uphill specialists, as will, of course, the penultimate stage of the race. The last climb of the Tour, the 11.6km Col de Joux Plane is an 8.5% climb that should provide an entertaining final opportunity for the GC hopefuls to mix it up. Stage 21 brings to Tour to its traditional conclusion on the Champs-Élysées.
The General Classification Contenders
I see five top-tier favorites for this Tour, led by defending champ Chris Froome. Assuming he can still time trial the way he did back when he won the 2013 Tour (which is no given), it’s hard to see anyone else as the rider to beat this Tour. Froome is among the world’s very best climbers, and he’s shown the killer instinct and tactical mind necessary to take advantage of every chance to get ahead of his rivals. He’ll have an incredible support squad backing him, with Mikel Landa and Geraint Thomas the main highlights.
Nairo Quintana looks likely to be Froome’s top competition. He has improved dramatically against the clock, and that should come in handy this Tour. It won’t be easy to best Froome, which he has yet to do in the Tour, but with Alejandro Valverde‘s help, he definitely has a shot to pull it off.
Alberto Contador may not be the rider who won the 2007 and 2009 Tours, but this Tour suits his skills quite well. He’s known for his climbing ability, but he’s been very strong in the TTs recently. He should challenge for the win.
Fabio Aru will lead the charge for Astana. It’s been a quieter year for him than he probably would have hoped for, but Aru can climb with the best when he’s in shape. If he’s not, teammate Vincenzo Nibali can certainly fill in admirably if necessary.
Richie Porte is the other potential GC protagonist I see as being a decent bet to win the Tour. The talent is certainly there. He has proven himself among the best climbers and time trialists in the world. The question is whether he can hold it together for three weeks. If so, he could absolutely contend for the podium. Tejay van Garderen is another strong option for BMC, though he too has struggled to stay strong across three weeks thus far in his career. In any case, the black and red squad has multiple cards to play.
Thibaut Pinot may be a tier below the Froomes and the Quintanas, but I don’t think he’s far off. He’s become a complete rider, capable of putting in a great TT and no longer a timid descender. Don’t be surprised to see him on the podium.
Joaquím Rodríguez, Ilnur Zakarin, Romain Bardet, Pierre Rolland, Bauke Mollema, Warren Barguil, and Dan Martin are others who could get involved in the General Classification battle.
The stagehunters
The “big three” of Marcel Kittel, André Greipel, and Mark Cavendish are set to dominate the sprinter’s stages, with Kittel looking to be top dog at least heading into the race. Alexander Kristoff, John Degenkolb, and Bryan Coquard are others who will have the flat stages circled in the road book.
The big question for me is whether any of them can best Peter Sagan in the quest for the green jersey. He should be in the mix in the sprints while also being the rider to beat on the slightly hillier days. One big challenger for the points classification may well be the versatile Michael Matthews, who also loves fast finishes after difficult days. Greg Van Avermaet and Tony Gallopin are others to watch for the lumpier stages.
Meanwhile, Tom Dumoulin, Tony Martin, and Fabian Cancellara bring serious firepower for the TTs, and any one of them could factor here and there as breakaway candidates.
VeloHuman Top 10 Overall Favorites
Winner: Chris Froome
Podium: Nairo Quintana, Alberto Contador
Other Top Contenders: Richie Porte, Fabio Aru, Thibaut Pinot, Vincenzo Nibali, Mikel Landa, Tejay van Garderen, Romain Bardet
Photo by Gilbert Sopakuwa (CC).