Stage 17: Berne › Finhaut-Emosson – 184.5km
Wednesday’s stage to Finhaut-Emosson has a terrific finale that should provide quite a show. After 150 kilometers without much to offer in terms of difficult topography, the day finishes with the one-two punch of a Cat. 1 ascent and then an HC-rated finishing climb. There’s not really much downtime between the climbs either, as they’re separated by a fast descent of around 7km.
By the time the riders are midway up the final climb, they’ll be pretty beat. On an average gradient of over 8%, that’s a recipe for action.
I think the profile does give the peloton a decent chance to catch the early break – the long-distance hopefuls will certainly have a chance – but I particularly like the chances of a few fringe GC contenders who might be given some freedom to attack a few kilometers from the finish. I’m expecting Chris Froome to play things a little more conservatively in the final week, and though he’s certainly a top favorite himself to win this stage, I think he might allow a rider like Romain Bardet to jump clear late in the day.
Fabio Aru, Dan Martin, and Joaquím Rodríguez are others far enough back on GC to maybe get some leeway. Nairo Quintana, Richie Porte, Bauke Mollema, and Adam Yates will all likely draw counter moves if they attack, though that doesn’t necessarily rule them out, especially if Quintana can get into gear the way we’ve seen in past Tours de France.
For breakaway candidates, the usual suspects will be in play: Rafal Majka, Pierre Rolland, Thomas De Gendt, Tom Dumoulin, Daniel Navarro, and Warren Barguil are all riders to watch.
VeloHuman Stage 17 Favorites
1. Romain Bardet | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Nairo Quintana