Stage 19: Albertville › Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc – 146km
A breakaway is never a sure thing, but Friday’s stage looks great for the early escape, coming on the heels of a tough TT, with a profile that should make the racing hard to control, and a mountain stage still on the horizon to temper the pace among the GC riders.
Though there are strangely no KOM points on offer at the summit, the uncategorized opening climb could day’s move could jump clear. From there the riders will have to deal with four categorized ascents en route to the finish line atop the final challenge. The last two climbs are the most important of the stage. The HC rated Montée de Bisanne probably comes too far from the line to spring a winning move, but at 8.2% for 12.4km, it will definitely whittle down both the break and the GC men.
The finishing climb, 9.8km at 8%, will likely see any organized groups shatter into ones and twos. It’s not that long, but I expect it to favor the real climbing specialists.
Rafal Majka is a great candidate for success in Stage 19. I’ve said before that I see him as the best climber out of the obvious breakaway types right now, and that makes him a strong contender here.
The same is true for Ilnur Zakarin, who looked brilliant in Stage 17. He’s really shown himself to be a top-notch climber of the course of the last year and a half.
I have a hard time rating Jarlinson Pantano’s chances, but he’s certainly a rider to watch. Three weeks ago I might have said this stage was a bit challenging for Pantano to be a top favorite but he’s looked so good in this Tour that the sky is really the limit right now.
Vincenzo Nibali, Pierre Rolland, Dani Navarro, Rui Costa, Warren Barguil, and Tom Dumoulin are others who stand out as clear long-range candidates, while Tejay van Garderen, now 17 minutes down on GC, might be a rider to watch from the breakaway at this point as well.
Should this come down to the GC men, Chris Froome is an obvious favorite, though if he follows the approach of past Tours de France he may be content to play things relatively conservatively now. That makes Richie Porte especially dangerous, given how strong he’s looked the past few days. Fabio Aru, Romain Bardet, and, of course, Nairo Quintana are others who could find themselves in the hunt for the stage win.
VeloHuman Stage 19 Favorites
1. Rafal Majka | 2. Ilnur Zakarin | 3. Chris Froome