Day 14: Into the Pyrenees
The last three days have been full of surprises. Fabian Cancellara and Tony Martin taking the top two spots in Stage 11’s ITT, perhaps not that surprising… But Domenico Pozzovivo taking the third spot ahead of Vincenzo Nibali? And Nicolas Roche not far behind? Clearly they are on the form of their lives. On Stage 12, World Champion Philippe Gilbert finally took his first win of the year, timing a sprint perfectly and zipping past Edvald Boasson Hagen in the closing meters of a slightly uphill finish. An impressive group managed to break away on Stage 13, and an on again off again pursuit eventually gave up the chase, allowing Warren Barguil to solo away from his breakaway companions in the last kilometer for the victory. Two relatively easy days of racing complete, the peloton now takes on three very hard stages that are sure to have GC implications.
Stage 14: Bagà > Andorra | 155.7km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)
The first categorized climb of the day happens to be the highest point in the Vuelta, Port de Envalira. The special category ascent is a 26.7 km slog at an average of 5.2% with sections of 15%; it’s a long, hard climb to the top, but the summit is nearly 70 kilometers from the finish, and after the legs of even the best climbers are exhausted, the climbing will continue. Steep descents and a pair of Cat. 2s lie between the special category climb and the finish, a Cat. 1 summit, 7.2 km at 8% that doesn’t really let up at the line either. There are some real talents who are out of GC contention these days, meaning a breakaway win is more than possible; if that happens, Roman Kreuziger, Diego Ulissi, and any number of Euskaltel riders (Anton, Nieve) might try to get into the fray. But it will be a grueling day of racing and no small feat to stay away from the peloton riding up and over four very hard climbs. With so much up and down, falling off the pace could lead to serious losses, meaning that the GC men will be at their limit trying to hang on. There have been some tough days so far in the Vuelta, but nothing with this much potential to blow up the race.
Whether they are contesting for the stage or fighting amongst themselves behind a breakaway, I see Vincenzo Nibali staying in control of the lead and Ivan Basso and Joaquim Rodriguez possibly gaining a bit on the others in the top 10. Rodriguez knows he needs to get up the road before his opportunities run out, and Stage 14 could be one of his best remaining, while Basso is built for long, grueling days like this, especially since he doesn’t have the mileage many of his rivals have this year. If Thibaut Pinot can handle the high speed descending (and the weather may be nasty as well), he’s looked very good climbing in this Vuelta. Chris Horner has been climbing unbelievably so far, but Stage 14 could really test his resolve. I’ve been doubting him so far and he’s continuously surprised me, but I’m doubting him again here anyway. Alejandro Valverde had a bit of trouble hanging on on Stage 10 and his team is down a man after a crash; he’ll have some tough days ahead if he wants to stay close to Nibali. Nicolas Roche and Domenico Pozzovivo have been outperforming expectations so far; it’s time to see if they’re really up to snuff. Dani Moreno and Samuel Sanchez both struggled in Stage 10; Moreno might be able to hang onto his top 10 position, but I don’t see him picking up another stage win here. Samuel Sanchez has been getting stronger as the Vuelta goes on, and with riders with less impressive GC resumes (Eros Capecchi, Tanel Kangert) in front of him, he might lose time to Nibali this stage, but gain time on the riders around him in the GC battle.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Joaquim Rodriguez | 2. Vincenzo Nibali | 3. Ivan Basso | 4. Alejandro Valverde
Stage 15: Andorra > Peyragudes | 224.9km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)
A pair of Cat. 1 climbs before the halfway mark is even reached could be a great launching pad for anyone with breakaway aspirations. Two more categorized summits in the final 25 kilometers will require serious climbing legs. The same riders mentioned above, as well as some of the same names that attacked early in stage 13 (names like Michele Scarponi, Benat Intxausti, and Bauke Mollema) could jump at the opportunity for a stage win. Of the GC contenders, Alejandro Valverde and Dani Moreno will love the flat run-in after the final climb. With so many ascents, there will be opportunities for attacks to go out of a lead group, but it may not be steep enough to keep a small group from galloping to the line for the stage win; the real question is whether they will be breakers or GC men. Knowing how favorable the finish will be to the likes of Valverde and Katusha’s big names, Saxo-Tinkoff and the other teams in contention would love to see a breakaway take the bonus seconds away from their GC rivals.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Daniel Moreno | 3. Joaquim Rodriguez | 4. Roman Kreuziger
Stage 16: Graus > Formigal | 146.8km | High Mountains (Summit Finish)
Monday’s stage is an interesting one. It’s one of the shortest stages in the race, but it’s essentially one long uphill grind with a few ups and downs on the way: the starting line’s altitude is 500 meters, but the day ends at 1800, with a Cat. 3 and Cat. 2 along the way to the Cat. 1 summit finish. The pace will be very high, and legs will tire. The last climb is 15.8 kilometers at a relatively gentle average gradient of 4%; it’s probably not steep enough to see any successful attacks from the GC men, especially not if the pace is as high as I think it will be. A breakaway could take it, of course, but should the big names constitute the group furthest up the road, the teams of the heaviest hitters will keep them at the front and in contention for a stage win. If a group finishes together, the leader of perhaps the strongest team, Vincenzo Nibali, will probably be content to roll in behind the leaders of the other marquee teams: Alejandro Valverde, Nicolas Roche, and Joaquim Rodriguez.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Nicolas Roche | 3. Joaquim Rodriguez | 4. Vincenzo Nibali
-Dane Cash
Photo by Andy Hay.
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