Stage 13: Calatayud › Tarazona – 178km
As the Vuelta gets lumpier and lumpier, we can probably start to expect more and more breakaway victories. Stage 13 is a great place for the long-range hopefuls to get on track for the week ahead.
Things open with a bit of up-and-down before an uphill run-in into a Cat. 3. Officially the climb is only 8.2km but by the time the riders reach the top they will have been ascending for over 18km at a low gradient. After a quick downhill comes a relatively easy Cat. 1, 10.9km at a bit under 5%. From there the road heads downward again for nearly 50km before things flatten out for a short stretch.
The final categorized climb, a Cat. 3 of 8.5km at 4.5%, officially peaks at a little over 30km before the finish. The road still angles upward slightly for a few more kilometers, but then it’s a long downhill run that only evens out inside the final 10km.
There is another small bump that starts with a little under 2.5km left in the stage, but the road flattens out near the flamme rouge for a relatively straightforward finale.
None of the climbs on Stage 13 are particularly difficult, but it’s hard to see the peloton reeling in the early move: the up-and-down profile will make things hard to control, and the stage is too easy to entice the GC teams to contribute to pushing the pace. The sprinters will have a chance on Stage 13, but it seems much more likely that this one will go down to the breakaway specialists.
As such, there are no real “favorites” for the stage, only riders who seem like good candidates for a win from afar.
Europcar is usually pretty adept at getting riders into breakaways, and they have multiple options in the Vuelta. The challenge will be turning opportunities into success, which they haven’t achieved much of this year. On ability, Cyril Gautier should be their top choice on this profile. He’s got good climbing legs and packs some punch for a late escape or a reduced sprint. Still, it’s difficult to predict whether he’ll even try to get in the move at all. Romain Sicard and Jerome Cousin have been very active for Europcar in this Vuelta and they may get the nod to go up the road instead.
Niki Terpstra has tried his luck with a few escape attempts so far in the Vuelta, and this profile should him more than many of the those that remain. He’s not the world’s greatest climber but he’s got plenty of pop and excellent soloing ability. Young Spaniard Carlos Verona is another option for Etixx-QuickStep.
After a rough outing on Stage 11, Movistar is probably looking to get more active in the breakaway game. Giovanni Visconti is an excellent option for this stage, with just the right skillset for the profile, and he’ll be among the favorites if he can get into the breakaway.
Adam Hansen has been a little bit quieter than expected in the breakaway game up to this point in the race, but Stage 13 suits him well. He’d probably prefer a more techincal run-in though.
Alessandro De Marchi has been quiet all season, but he has finally started to show some interest in getting active. He could be BMC’s best option, as these climbs may not be challenging enough to appeal to Darwin Atapuma or Samuel Sánchez.
Caja Rural will almost certainly send someone up the road, but it’s hard to say who it will be. Omar Fraile has been very active off the front sweeping up KOM points but now that he has a big lead in that classification, the team may be more interested in a stage win. Pello Bilbao and José Goncalves, both of whom have looked particularly good this year, are their best options to pull that off.
Miguel Angel Rubio was Colombia’s breakaway man on Stage 12, which could mean someone else makes the attempt on Stage 13. Carlos Quintero has been active so far. Rubén Plaza, who has been riding well since June, and Kristijan Durasek, who does have a bit of speed for a fast finish, give Lampre-Merida a pair of strong options. Stephen Cummings, AG2R’s Rinaldo Nocentini and Blel Kadri, Cannondale-Garmin’s Alex Howes and Ben King, and Sylvain Chavanel are other riders on the list of potential long-range candidates for Stage 13 success.
In the (unlikely) event that this does come down to a sprint, John Degenkolb is the favorite, despite his lack of wins so far, while Tosh Van der Sande, José Joaquín Rojas, Danny Van Poppel, and Kristian Sbaragli will also probably be in the mix.
VeloHuman Stage 13 Favorites
1. Cyril Gautier | 2. Niki Terpstra | 3. José Goncalves
Don’t miss the latest Recon Ride podcast episode, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. The preview of the next stage will be up after the conclusion of Stage 13.