Stage 3: Mijas › Málaga – 158.4km
The third stage of the 2015 Vuelta should give the quick men a chance at glory, if they can make it over a tough climb midway through the day. 158.4km from start to finish, Monday’s Stage 3 is a short one, but the Cat. 1 Puerto del León will challenge the sprinters. 16km at 5.2%, it’s a long way to the top. Fortunately, the fast finishers will have about 80 kilometers after the summit to get back into the bunch if they lose contact.
There is also an uncategorized bump about 10km from the finish, though it is neither particularly long, nor all that steep. The final 4km are pan flat, though somewhat technical with a full about-face turn inside the last 2km.
This early in the race, a sprint finish is almost a certainty, and most of the sprint specialists should make it to the line despite the Cat. 1 halfway along the route.
Nacer Bouhanni and John Degenkolb went head to head several times in last year’s Vuelta, with Degenkolb taking four wins and Bouhanni nabbing two. The two speedsters are set to resume the confrontation in this year’s race starting Monday. I rate Degenkolb’s top-end speed a bit higher than most observers probably do, about on par with Bouhanni’s, though Bouhanni has the edge in a technical finish. However, Bouhanni went down hard on Stage 2 and he may be feeling the effects in the Stage 3 sprint. Without much indication of form this early in the race, I’d give Degenkolb a tiny advantage for this likely showdown due to Bouhanni’s fall, though it wouldn’t be a surprise at all if the Frenchman took the stage win. If something should happen to Degenkolb, his teammate Luka Mezgec will be a handy alternative for Giant-Alpecin, fast enough even to challenge Bouhanni.
Peter Sagan is certainly among the top names to watch on Stage 3 as well, though his form is a big question mark. Sagan showed last year that he’s quite comfortable taking the Vuelta as a pure training ride and giving up opportunities for stage victories as works his way towards Worlds. If he’s up for it, he’ll be in the mix, but that seems less than likely.
Caleb Ewan, on the other hand, should be fully motivated to go for glory in his first Grand Tour sprint stage. The 21-year-old has all the speed in the world, and should be right up there in the finale with the more experienced favorites if he can position himself properly.
Danny Van Poppel doesn’t have many opportunities to sprint for himself, but he’s looked sharp this year, especially in the past few weeks. He has a shot on Stage 3. The same is true for Kris Boeckmans—the climb could challenge the hefty Belgian, but he has the speed to fight for a sprint win.
Jean-Pierre Drucker, Kristian Sbaragli, Tom Van Asbroeck, Carlos Barbero, JJ Rojas, Max Richeze, and Jasper Stuyven are among the others who will have a shot at the stage win in the likely bunch kick.
VeloHuman Stage 3 Favorites
1. John Degenkolb | 2. Nacer Bouhanni | 3. Caleb Ewan
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 3. The VeloHuman overall Vuelta a España race preview is available here.