Stage 11: Colunga › Peña Cabarga – 168.6km
Now that the Vuelta peloton has enjoyed a rest day, GC action will resume with a tough finishing climb in stage 11. Of course, first, the riders will take on about 160 kilometers of flat (though terrifically scenic) coastal roads.
Once they hit the climb, things get hard quite quickly. It’s a 5.6km ascent with two steeper sections and a brief respite in the middle. There’s an 18% stretch in the final kilometer.
I’d imagine a break will get away early and open up a significant advantage, but it shouldn’t be too hard for the bunch to reel in a move in the run-up to the climb, so my main favorites for Stage 11 come from the GC contenders. I especially like a few riders a little ways down the leaderboard who might get a bit of room to roam on the way up the climb, as I wouldn’t be surprised if Nairo Quintana returns to his old habit of riding (too) conservatively in a Grand Tour.
Simon Yates has been great so far this Vuelta and he’s got the punch to thrive on a short climb like this. I would expect him to get some breathing room with an attack.
To a lesser degree I see Samuel Sánchez possibly playing a similar role. He’s a long way removed from Olympic gold, but he’s still got some power in those legs. Gianlcua Brambilla has done a nice job to say in the fight for a Top 10 in the race, and I think he’s got a shot if he makes a move here as well.
All that said, the big, marquee GC contenders could very well be gunning for the stage win here, and Quintana is probably the fave among them. His teammate Alejandro Valverde has a nice skillset for the climb too, but I think he’s all in for Quintana right now so I have a hard time seeing him crossing the line ahead of the red jersey. I think Chris Froome is more likely to be in that position. In fact, I’m probably more bullish on Froome than many others—I think he does just fine even on really steep gradients, even if he likes to drop off the back of a GC group early on. Esteban Chaves and Alberto Contador are of course worth watching as well.
If it comes down to the early breakaway, the long list of stage win candidates includes Robert Gesink, Hugh Carthy, Mathias Frank, Thomas De Gendt, Pierre Rolland, Joe Dombrowski, Tejay van Garderen, and Darwin Atapuma.
VeloHuman Stage 11 Favorites
1. Simon Yates | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Chris Froome