Stage 20: Benidorm › Alto de Aitana – 193.2km
It’s time for the final mountain stage of the 2016 Vuelta. The profile doesn’t disappoint. Saturday’s 193.2km trek throws one Cat. 2 after another at the peloton over the course of the afternoon to wear the riders down before a grueling final climb.
The 5.9% average gradient of the Alto de Aitana is not all that intense, but at 21km, after so many prior ascents, it’s going to hurt. Plus, the final few kilometers are a bit steeper than the rest of the climb, providing a perfect launching pad for attacks. We should see plenty of them.
As far as the stage battle, I like the chances of the GC favorites a bit more than the break, simply because I expect the overall contenders to be going really hard up that final climb. There are several riders who have a chance to move up before Madrid. On the other hand, this has been a good Vuelta for breaks and this up-and-down profile does suit an early escape, so don’t be surprised to see a long-distance winner either.
Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana will likely go head-to-head in the last 10km or so, and both of them (I give Froome a slight edge) have a shot at the stage win—but I especially like the chances of the riders slightly further down on GC. I think the two riders at the top of the leaderboard might allow the likes of Esteban Chaves, Simon Yates, or Alberto Contador to get some breathing room should one of them launch an attack. Chaves needs time badly, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him crossing the line first, though maybe not far enough ahead of Contador to get back onto the podium.
If it comes down to a long-range attack, it’s up to the usual breakaway suspects. Robert Gesink, Leopold König, Kenny Elissonde, Mathias Frank, Gianluca Brambilla, Egor Silin are probably the strongest candidates, with Darwin Atapuma, Thomas De Gendt, Luis León Sánchez, and Alexandre Geniez in with a shot too.
VeloHuman Stage 20 Favorites
1. Esteban Chaves | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Nairo Quintana