Stage 3: Marín › Dumbría – 176.4km
The Vuelta’s third stage is one for the puncheurs, with a 9.3km, 5.4% gradient climb crested just over 20km from the finish to soften up the bunch and then a viciously steep Cat. 3 finale of 1.8km at 13.8% to guarantee fireworks at the line.
The topographical challenges may not be long enough to decide the Vuelta, but the steep finish will be far too difficult for anyone without great climbing legs. I expect the GC men to be in the mix with a few stagehunter-types for the win, probably out of the peloton late—though there is some chance of a long-range move sticking.
It’s never easy picking favorites for a stage like this, but Alejandro Valverde looks to be as good a tip as any. He’s got the explosiveness and the uphill ability to thrive at this finish, and he seems to be in fine enough form. Daniel Moreno is a fine alternative for Movistar, while Nairo Quintana will be an interesting one to watch, given a chance to show he’s in form even if this isn’t necessarily his favored terrain.
Chris Froome seems like a decent bet to me. He’s not an Ardennes specialist, and he’s been known to take irregular climbs at his own pace, but I don’t know that I buy into the notion that he can’t deal with explosive ascents. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the best climber in the world try to kick away from his rivals here. Alberto Contador, who many see as the top overall favorite in Spain, could have the same thing in mind.
Esteban Chaves has a nice bit of punch and plenty of climbing expertise to be involved here. His Orica-BikeExchange teammate Simon Yates seems like just as strong a pick. It’s hard to make any judgments about Yates’s abilities or particular skillset this early in his career, but he has shown explosiveness and strong climbing legs in plenty of races already.
The finish is probably a bit too demanding for Michal Kwiatkowski and Philippe Gilbert, but I don’t think it’s out of the question that either contends. Gianluca Brambilla, Robert Gesink, Darwin Atapuma, and Samuel Sánchez are others to watch.
VeloHuman Stage 3 Favorites
1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Esteban Chaves