To Hamburg!
While many of the world’s biggest GC threats are suffering in Spain, some of cycling’s fastest fast men are headed to Hamburg, Germany for the annual sprintfest known as the Vattenfall Cyclassics. The course, which loops a few times around the greater Hamburg area, ostensibly contains a lump or two, but the difficult ascents amount to little more than repeated trips over one very short berg and a few bridges.
Every edition in recent memory (and it hasn’t been around very long) has ended in a bunch sprint, and every recent winner has been a marquee sprinter. Last year, Arnaud Demare nabbed the victory and relegated power sprinter Andre Greipel to second place. With another Cyclassic final likely to come down to a mass gallop, the leaderboard should once again read as a who’s who of on-form hard finishers, albeit minus Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, and two-time winner Tyler Farrar, who is spending a few days in Spain.
Leading the way, certainly somewhere near the top, should be Andre Greipel. He’s been 3rd and 2nd here before, he’s got a strong leadout squad, and he looks very sharp right now. He was right there with Cav and Kittel in so many Tour de France finishes, but he only notched one victory, losing out in photo finishes to his countryman Kittel twice. He won a stage in the Eneco Tour, but will surely feel robbed of better results after Mark Renshaw galloped out ahead around a sharp turn on the flat, would-be sprinter’s first stage; Greipel won the bunch sprint for second. He stayed sharp all week, winning in the fourth stage and gunning for the intermediates in an attempt to nab the points jersey, only to be pipped by a whopping one point by Lars Boom in the end. In other words, the form is definitely there, but the Gorilla will be hungry for more concrete results. This is the only WorldTour race in his home country, and a perfect opportunity for him to finally take a one-day victory at the WT level.
Last year’s winner Demare has been sharp recently as well, taking a victory of his own in the Eneco Tour to add to several other big wins this year. He’s just 21 years old, and he’s got a strong finishing kick and a healthy dose of endurance, making him a good bet on a long race like this one.
Young Radioshack sprinter Giacomo Nizzolo rounded out last year’s podium. He’s won a pair of sprint victories this year at the Skoda Tour de Luxembourg, but those were against rather weak competition. However, he looked very strong at this month’s Eneco Tour, where, like Greipel, he probably felt robbed of a victory when Zdenek Stybar won stage 3 with an attack near the finish: Nizzolo won the bunch sprint behind him. He was just behind Greipel on Stages 2 and 4. After knocking at the door all week in the Low Countries, Nizzolo would love to make a statement at Vattenfall, and I think he has a great shot at it.
Alexander Kristoff was 4th here back in 2010 when he was just 23. After back-to-back finishes just outside the top 10, I think he’s on track for another strong showing this year: he’s been on fire basically since March, winning one of the Three Days of De Panne to kick off a string of high placings in major races, including top 10s in Paris-Roubaix, Milano-San Remo, and the Tour of Flanders, three wins in the Glava Tour, and a win over Peter Sagan in a sprint at the Tour de Suisse. He was always in the mix in the Tour de France sprints despite lacking much team support. Katusha won’t be distracted here, and he’s got the all-around fastman package to add to his palmares this year.
Gerald Ciolek was second in the 2011 edition and MTN Qhubeka is here again with a big showing in mind. Toiling away on a Pro Continental squad, Ciolek has only attended two WorldTour races this year, but he won one of them, and it happened to be the monumental Milano-San Remo. Recent good results in the run-up to this event are scarce for him, but they were in 2011 as well, and Ciolek is a tough, smart racer in his home country, and he doesn’t get as many opportunities to race on the highest level as he should.
Thor Hushovd, recently back from a long slump, will clip in Sunday looking for more results. He won a pair of stages in Poland and has taken a slew of recent victories in smallar races. German sprinter John Degenkolb actually hasn’t raced here before, and he’ll be in attendance as well, but he hasn’t really lived up to his name lately. He’ll look to get back on track in front of a crowd full of countrymen. Orica GreenEdge sends both Matt Goss and Daryl Impey. Goss is a better pure sprinter, but of course he’s been invisible lately. Impey will take up the slack if Goss drops off the back early, as has been his M.O. for a while, though if he does make it to the finish, this is a good opportunity for him to get his mojo back. Elia Viviani will be days removed from a win at the Dutch Food Valley Classic. He was always in the mix at the Giro and picked up a win in the Dauphine; I don’t know if he can outkick some of the stronger names in attendance, but being in the mix isn’t out of the question. Lampre sends Filippo Pozzato, also in the mix often at the Giro.
Belkin’s Lars Boom and Omega Pharma-Quick Step’s Alessandro Petacchi are both coming off of Eneco Tours in which they featured prominentaly in a number of sprint stages. Boom, as has been mentioned, worked hard for the points jersey as a consolation for missing out on GC. He’ll want more results this year after a disappointing spring. Petacchi will be supported by an always strong OPQS squad that includes Michal Kwiatkowski. Movistar’s J.J. Rojas, master of the decent-but-not-great finishing sprint, was 5th here in 2011 and can probably muster another top 10. Saxo-Tinkoff’s Daniele Bennati last raced here in 2010, and he finished 5th then. He seems to be slowing down but he looked alright without much team support in the Tour. His teammate Matti Breschel was 2nd in the 2009 edition and looked very strong in the recent Tour of Denmark.
Vacansoleil is sending both van Poppels. Danny was the better rider in the Tour de France, where he managed a top three finish on the first stage. Hard to call.
My under-the-radar pick is Garmin’s 25 year old Steele von Hoff, who hung right with Hushovd on stage 3 of the Tour de Pologne and then won the bunch sprint for second place moments behind Taylor Phinney on stage 4. Those were long days in the saddle, much like this will be, and the time seems right for him to make a splash. Garmin also has the young Raymond Kreder.
VeloHuman Predictions
Winner
Andre Greipel
Podium
Alexander Kristoff, Giacomo Nizzolo
Top 10
Arnaud Demare, Gerald Ciolek, Thor Hushovd, Elia Viviani, Lars Boom, J.J. Rojas, John Degenkolb
Under the Radar Challenger
Steele von Hoff
-Dane Cash
Photo by Sum_of_Marc.