Tag: 2013

World Championship Road Race 2013 Post-race Impressions: Costa Campeão

The Narrative

For those who have watched Rui Costa win back-to-back Tours de Suisse, three stages of the Tour de France, and the Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal, it was only a matter of time before the young Portuguese all-rounder took that marquee victory to make himself a cycling fan household name. Having seen him at the front of the pack in a number of big-time finishes, I named the “constant fixture in late season circuit races” a “favorite to outsprint the GC types” in my preview, and he did just that on Sunday when he hung with a very select group over the final climbs in Florence, bridged a late gap to star finisher Joaquim Rodriguez, and outran him in a drag to the line. Costa wasn’t too long of a longshot according to bookmakers, either, and a few other prominent previewers in the world of online pre-race outlooks named him as a hot rider for the championship race. However, based on fan and media response, you would think that Costa’s success came out of left field, and that Sunday’s race was a case of the Spanish duo of Valverde and Rodriguez losing, and not the Portuguese star winning. I think this sentiment is in denial of the facts, and I was thrilled to see Costa stake his claim for the world title so emphatically, beating the best in the world despite having a tiny squad of supporters compared to the full rosters of Spain, Italy, and the United Kingdom. I’ll admit I was a bit disappointed for Purito, always the bridesmaid in these big events, but only one rider could come out of the race as the victor, and Costa and his combination of skill and savvy make him a more than deserving world champion.

A four-sentence recap of the race first. The grueling circuit was made all the more grueling by rotten weather, and the combined parcours and conditions led to countless crashes and abandons, which saw big name riders like Chris Froome (and the rest of the UK squad) and Dan Martin (and the rest of the Irish squad) exit the race. By the final lap, things were mostly altogether for the remaining few, which still included many favorites, but the last trip around Florence brought a succession of uphill attacks that proved too much for all but the most climbing-oriented riders left, and this small group of Grand Tour stars distanced the likes of Cancellara and Sagan. After Rigoberto Uran took a nasty fall, it was down to Joaquim Rodriguez playing keepaway from Vincenzo Nibali and Rui Costa, with Rodriguez’s teammate Alejandro Valverde hanging back with the Portuguese and Italian riders. As the finish line approached, Costa jumped across the gap and was not followed, and after he made the catch, he outsprinted Purito to the line for the rainbow jersey.

Rodriguez was, of course, despondent after the race, and his compatriot Valverde was the target of scorn and audible booing, apparently for not following Costa’s move. Nibali wasn’t happy with fourth, but the Italian team director heaped more negativity on the Spanish squad by saying he’d rather be fourth than lose the race the way the Spanish did.

Somehow, people seemed to gloss over the fact that Rui Costa, who observers should have known had a great shot at this thing, was the best rider in Florence that day. He was strong enough to hang with a group so select that every other rider in it has either won or been runner-up in a Grand Tour. He had the tank to solo across a significant gap with only a kilometer to go. And finally, he outsprinted a rider with a great finishing kick, Joaquim Rodriguez, on his way to the victory. He played his hand perfectly in the final lap, staying out the wind and letting Nibali do a good deal of chasing, making a decisive, powerful move at a bend in the road, and timing his sprint just right to pip Purito.

Many seemed to think that Valverde made some mistake by not getting on Costa’s wheel when the now-champ made his bridge, but I’m not sure there are any reasons good enough for Valverde to willfully ignore Costa’s attack other than a decision to stick with the Giro winner Vincenzo Nibali, which would have been a pragmatic choice anyway. It seems as likely to me that Valverde just couldn’t keep up with Costa, which is what the bronze medalist has said in post-race interviews. Yes, Valverde is a Grand Tour and monument winning superstar, but he’s on the wrong side of thirty and it may surprise you to know that he has yet to actually nab a WorldTour level win this year. Costa, meanwhile, has been racking up the palmares in 2013. I believe that the young and versatile Costa was just the strongest guy out there, and much fresher, having not ridden the Vuelta and being a fair bit younger than the Purito generation.

Takeaways

Purito himself has every right to be depressed, coming so close to the rainbow jersey as he has come so close to so many big wins in the past. He finally got his monument victory last year at Il Lombardia, and he will get another opportunity there this weekend, but to have such an opportunity slip through his fingers must be heartbreaking. But let’s not lose sight in all that sadness of the year Rodriguez is having at the age of 34: he won a stage at the Vuelta and was 4th overall, he was on the podium in the Tour de France, was runner up in Liege-Bastogne-Liege and Catalunya (to the same rider and in the span of less than a month, to get back to being depressing for a second), and he won a mountain stage in a Tirreno-Adriatico that featured all three of this year’s Grand Tour winners. Now, he’s runner-up in the World Championship race. Compatriot Alberto Contador seems to have lost a step in his 30th year, but Purito keeps chugging along in his 34th. If he can win again or come in 2nd in Lombardy (and if Froome isn’t hanging around the top of the leaderboard), Rodriguez can again be WorldTour champion: given the single-day explosiveness he’s shown in the past few weeks, he’s got a great shot at it.

Valverde has had a string of strong results this year, too, and Nibali has now added a World Championship top 5 to his shiny Palmares in 2013. Neither got the prize he was looking for, but there is still a lot to be said for the way they outdistanced the sprintier types and hung on ahead. Rigoberto Uran will be left wondering what might have been had he not gotten it all wrong on a wet descent; surely he could have challenged for the victory with his explosive skillset. Fortunately for Uran, he’s young and headed to a new trade team next year, just like Costa, and he will get many more chances to impress us in the future.

The unpredictable course proved just a hair too difficult for Cancellara, Sagan, and Gilbert, who finished in a group behind the winners, all three left to wonder what might have been had they been able to marshal the uphill strikes by the climbing stars. Still, it was not a bad performance from all of them (really, any rider who finished the race at all deserves praise), and despite Gilbert’s constant losing this year, keeping pace with that group is just another in a long line of results that show he’s still got plenty left in the tank. Sagan, still 23 remember, will have plenty of opportunities in the future. Cancellara might be most disappointed of the three, as this race seemed to have the right level of toughness (ultra-high) to favor his hardman attitude, and years to come may not be as selective. Finishing with or around the same time as this trio were a few surprises: Maxim Iglinskiy, Simon Clarke, and Andriy Grivko. Crossing the line with an impressive pack that also included Dani Moreno, Bauke Mollema Sergio Henao, and Michele Scarponi, they have a right to be proud of their top 10s.

What does the future hold for the winner of the race? He’s shown an incredible array of all-round ability in his young career, with results in one-day circuit races and Alpine stage races alike. VeloHuman bemoaned the tactics of his team (Movistar) in the Tour de France this year when they wasted his top 10 position in GC sending him back to Valverde on the day the latter was distanced in the crosswinds, as if a single rider was going to make a difference draging Valverde back up the front. Next year, Costa won’t need to worry about being sent back for his team leader, as he’ll be the guy for his new team Lampre-Merida. Fortunately, he’ll be able to wear the glorious rainbow jersey instead of Lampre’s garish kit. He’ll be the most prominent piece of the puzzle of Lampre’s youth movement, as that team is turning away from aging stars like Michele Scarponi and Damiano Cunego and towards some exciting new talent. Costa’s never contended for a Grand Tour GC, so it remains to be seen how well he’ll represent Portugal on the biggest stage racing stages next year, but he’s sure to continue to succeed in one-day and one-week races; he’s turning 27 tomorrow, just hitting his prime, just diving into his physical peak years. He showed the time trailing and climbing ability, he’s flashed a strong sprint when he’s needed to, he showed a sharp racing mind Sunday as he has many times before on smaller stages, and now he’ll have all the confidence in the World going forward.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Flowizm.

October 5, 2013
UCI World Championship Road Race 2013 Preview

The Main Event

The first few days of World Champs week have lived up to the hype; Tony Martin delivered back-to-back legendary performances in the team and individual time trials to kick things off in grand style. Now, the thrilling conclusion draws near.

For many of the biggest names in the sport, the post-Tour months have been all about tuning up. Whether in Spain or North America, in the final Grand Tour of the year or flying around urban circuits, riders have had an eye on Sunday’s main event. Every conversation predicting the Vuelta had to be framed in the context of preparation for Florence. The WorldTour’s stop visit to Canada garnered plenty of discussion about which one-day stars were in form for the real showdown at the World Champs.

The time for for tuning up is over. The rainbow jersey is up for grabs this weekend, and the competition is the most open in years. The nature of the course is such that nobody really knows for sure how the race will play out. The Florentine circuit race is an unmistakably up-and-down affair that will put the peloton through a seemingly never-ending series of climbs; but it will be repeated ascending of the same difficult but not overwhelming summits, without any one great climb that we can look to as the inevitable selection point. And the end of the run is flat, meaning that late breakers will not have an easy time staying away, and the winner will have to be rider with a very fast finish. Will the climbers be able to force the heavier riders out of the race? Will an attack go clear? And will a number of riders who might be favorites with the support of their trade teams have sufficient team backing with their national squads instead, especially against powerhouses like Spain and Italy?

The Road Ahead

One thing everyone can agree on about this profile: it’s grueling. This race will be won by a true hardman. 272.2 km of ascending and descending, and the favorites will face all the adversity that comes with every other rider on the road dreaming of this one day being his big day for a legendary winning move. The first half is not particularly challenging, a 100 kilometer prelude with a pair of climbs (Montecarlo and San Baronto) to put a bit of fatigue in the legs before the riders begin their ten laps around the Florence circuit. Every trip around town will include a climb up the Fiesole (4.4 km at 5.2%) and the short but steep Via Salviata (0.6 km at 10.2%), summited with 5 kilometers to go. There is also a bump in the road 3.5 kilometers from the end of the loop of less than a kilometer, but it’s got a section at 10%. Going up and down so many times adds up to quite a quantity of vertical meters; but it will have to be this repeated suffering that takes its toll, as a single climb up the Fiesole wouldn’t be particularly selective. More importantly, the top of the Fiesole is more than 10 km from the end, and the short Via Salviati and shorter mini-ramp a few km later are the only real lumps in an otherwise downhill or flat run-in. In other words, it will be a big challenge to attack on the climbs with so much space for the peloton to catch back up. With a flat finish, the winner will likely need a sprint.

And, of course, the weather will play it’s part. Riders who came to this event hoping for a nice weekend under the Tuscan sun will get a rude awakening: the forecast calls for some heavy rain. Anyone who gets away on a climb will have to stay away on a wet descent. With the pace as high as it will inevitably be, this one won’t be for the faint of heart.

So who will emerge from this slogfeset with the gold medal and the rainbow jersey? I won’t say it’s anyone’s game, but I do think the number of legitimate contenders is quite high. There are a few names, however, that I’m confident will be in the mix.

The Contenders

Chief among them for me has to be Peter Sagan. He really needs no introduction, especially if you’ve ever read a VeloHuman preview, so I’ll get to the specifics that make him tops. He won a difficult Gent-Wevelgem and came in second in the grueling Milano-San Remo and Tour of Flanders this year, but he also found himself on the podium in Amstel Gold last year, and atop it in the Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal a few weeks ago. He has won back-to-back green jerseys in the Tour de France (which now weights flat stages more heavily than climbing stages), but he also won Stage 3 of the Tour de Suisse, cresting an Alpine summit with a who’s who of climber talent at his side. And if the conditions get bad on Sunday? I think the former junior cyclocross world championship silver medalist will be able to handle himself. He can sprint with the best, he can climb with the best, he can go long, and he can handle the bike with some serious dexterity, which is exactly the kind of versatility necessary to win this open race. He also willed Slovakia into six positions on the startlist basically on his own WorldTour points alone; it’s not nine, which is what his main rivals will have, but he will have help. The hardest test for the young superstar will be the length of the course, which will push him to his limit.

Oddsmakers see another very versatile star as the favorite, Switzerland’s Fabian Cancellara. If the World Championship ITT is any indication (and I think it probably is) Cancellara is one of the top 3 soloists in the world right now (and as a four time winner of that competition, I don’t think that was ever in doubt). He’s a masterful descender with a strong sprint. Rainy conditions won’t trouble the Paris-Roubaix winner. For Cancellara, as for the other hard-chargers, the question is the same: will they be able to survive the hills and constant uphill attacks? If Cancellara is there, surely he will be a favorite, but will the rider who has been a constant sight in many of the same races in which he’s starred be there as well? I’m not sure Cancellara will be able to be out-drag-race Sagan or the other two sprinting talents I think have a chance to make it (see blow), but after so many miles of racing, anything could happen, and Spartacus is one of the toughest riders in the sport. He also has a strong team behind him, with big names like Michael Albasini and rising star Mathias Frank.

A third versatile rider famous for his one day kicks is the man who currently wears the rainbow jersey: Philippe Gilbert. It’s been a very hard year for the Belgian star, who was held winless until the Vuelta a España, but he followed the same script last year on his way to the World Championship, and he sure looked fine there. Moreover, his constant misses shouldn’t be taken as signs of a total lack of form: he top 10ed in Amstel and Liege Bastogne Liege, came in second at Brabantse Pijl to Sagan, and notched second places in stages all over, from Paris-Nice to the Eneco Tour (which, in my opinion, he might have won or at least podiumed in had he not crashed out) to the Vuelta, where he lost out in a photo finish a few days before finally nabbing that elusive victory. Said win in the Vuelta was masterful, and it showed that he can sprint with the best riders out there: despite his disappointments, he looks to be very much on form right now. His career shows ample evidence of his ability to hang on over the tough climbs, and the Via Salviata looks to be exactly the sort of ascent the Boar of the Ardennes might jump out for glory on; however, I think this year’s Gilbert might be even more dangerous in a reduced sprint after a long day. He looked like he’d lost a bit of a step in the steep uphill finish game in the Ardennes this year, but his recent results show a formidable kick in a flat finish. I think he’s a great bet for a repeat of last year’s late season glory, one way or another.

The other elite-finisher-who-can-climb I’ll mention is Norway’s Edvald Boasson Hagen, 2nd in last year’s championship race. He won a stage at the Dauphine in June and cleaned up the less-competitive Glava Tour of Norway, but his Grand Tour experiences this year were defined by near misses: three 2nd places but no wins and only a broken shoulder (in France) to show for his efforts. Still, he’s one of the best climbing sprinters in the game, with endurance and the light frame to nab victories and podium finishes in a wide variety of one day events. His team support will be limited, and he’ll be pushed to the edge by the difficulty of the race, but if he’s there, he’s got the engine.

The peloton will be full of riders trying to use the ascents to drop these four and their ilk (though really, if it’s a bigger group at the finish, it’s these riders pretty well ahead of everyone else in that ilk my mind, which is why I only give their four names before getting into the climbier types). Spain, Great Britain, Italy, Australia, Colombia, the Netherlands, and France all have stacked squads to try to force this result. The Spanish Armada will sure look imposing out on the course: Alejandro Valverde looks like their best option for a select group at the finish, but Daniel Moreno has been absolutely on fire in 2013 (winning La Fleche Wallone as well as two stages of the Vuelta, where he was also a top 10 finisher), showing an elite kick. Depending on which rider is still there and whom this team decides to support, if a small bunch makes it a drag race to the finish, these two have the form and the ability to be in the mix, and it’s hard to see a scenario where at least one of them isn’t in the top 10, or even on the podium. Joaquim Rodriguez is surely eying a late climb to make a move, and former Olympic Gold medalist Samuel Sanchez could also play a part. Luis Leon Sanchez will enjoy the circuit’s similarity to the Clasica San Sebastian. And then there is Alberto Contador, who could try to go for a long one, knowing that he won’t be able to outsprint his rivals at the line.

If he does, Tour de France winner Chris Froome would love a partner: he’s focused on this race ever since his dominant win in Paris, but he knows he’ll have to use his elite TTing and climbing abilities to get away from the pack if he wants a shot at the rainbow. He’ll have quite a team to back him: Wiggins, Cavendish, Geraint Thomas, and Ian Stannard will work hard to keep him out of the wind until he decides to make his move. I don’t know if the course or the elements favor him, and he doesn’t have the one-day race resume that the other contenders have, but he showed in July that he’s one of the best cyclists on the planet.

A Grand Tour star who will love the forecast is home favorite Vincenzo Nibali. Like Froome and Contador, Nibali knows he’ll need to drop Valverde and Co. if he wants to win, but he’s a strong descender and doesn’t mind a little rain, and he’ll be riding in front of a home crowd. He may have been disappointed with his second place at the Vuelta, but 1st and 2nd in two Grand Tours in the same year is a pretty phenomenal feat, and Nibali has the all-rounder package to contend. He also has a team stacked with alternative options: Filippo Pozzato’s GP Ouest France win and GP Montreal top 10 mark a resurgence for him, and if he does reach the finish with the leaders, he’ll be able to duke it out with any of the remaining sprinters. Diego Ulissi was champing at the bit in the Vuelta and took a stirring victory in the Tour de Pologne in late July. Rinaldo Nocentini will appreciate the Ardennes-style climbs, Giovanni Visconti and Luca Paolini both showed incredible power with hilly stage wins in the Giro, Michele Scarponi can climb with the best, and even Ivan Santaromita was mixing it up on numerous Vuelta stages.

Colombia’s stable of climbers will look to join forces with these European stars to animate things on the ascents. Henao and Betancur (who was the talk of the town a few weeks back before he showed up the Vuelta and bombed) will probably be riding in support of Tour phenom Nairo Quintana and Giro surprise star Rigoberto Uran, who is probably the team’s best bet given his explosive talent. He enjoyed his autumn visit to Italy last year (where he won Gran Piemonte and took 3rd in Lombardy) and he’s likely to make a dent again this year. Quintana will need to get away on the climbs, as he is not known for his drag-racing ability, but he was riding aggressively in the Tour of Britain and will have plenty of company trying to get away.

Australia’s Cadel Evans has a surprising sprint and a strong team; it’s been all about form for him this year, and it’s not clear what kind of form he’s on right now (he was in the top 20 in both Canadian races but didn’t factor for the win), but a few years back he won the Amstel Gold Race and top 5ed at LBL that weekend. And the year before? He won the World Championship Road Race. The former rainbow wearer can’t be counted out. His teammate Richie Porte will look to outclimb the bunch, so don’t be surprised to see a repeat of the Tour de France, with Froome, Porte, Contador, and Quintana out ahead alone.

France and the Netherlands both have a number of quick-finishing climber types who have strong single-day resumes. France’s Tommy Voeckler leads a squad filled with mountain-stage-winning types who will be very aggressive: Christophe Riblon, Arthur Vichot (French champ this year and 2nd in Quebec), Warren Barguil (Vuelta star), Romain Bardet and Anthony Roux are all explosive and capable on the climbs. Pinot is probably the best pure climber on the squad. There are so strong riders on the team that at least one is likely to be in the mix at the end, and the way Vichot and Barguil have been riding, I have my eye on them most of all. The Dutch squad will wait to see which of their stars, Mollema or Gesink, is in the best shape at the end of the day: recent Vuelta stage winner and former points classification winner Bauke Mollema is sneaky fast at the line, and Robert Gesink just won the Grand Prix Cycliste Quebec by outsprinting none other than Peter Sagan after a long day in the saddle. Tom Jelte Slagter can finish hard, too, and the endurance-filled talent behind them (Dumoulin especially, as well as Langeveld, Kelderman, and Weening) will give Dutch fans confidence. It’s very hard to say whether the team backs Mollema or Gesink if they’re both there in a group finish, but I imagine one of the two will be in the top 10.

Michal Kwiatkowski has been somewhat M.I.A. in WorldTour leaderboards since the Tour, but the parcours is perfect for him. His form is an unknown, but he did crash while in Canada, making it difficult to declare him unfit; if he’s on his game, he’ll be hard to beat at the line, and he shouldn’t struggle with the climbs. He also has a surprisingly large team behind him that includes strong climbers like Rafal Majka, Pryzslaw Niemiec and Bartosz Huzarski. I’m hard-pressed to tab him for the top 10 based on his slew of DNFs and anonymous finishes these past few months, but I can also see him winning the race.

Obviously I can’t give a full rundown of every national squad, but there are a few non-Sagan and Gilbert (tragically, Belgium only has 7 riders here) contenders on the less-staffed teams who merit mention as either potential uphill attackers or versatile fast finishers. Gilbert’s teammates Jan Bakelants and Greg Van Avermaet are both quick to the line, should they still be around if their leader go missing in the finale. I suppose after routinely leaving him out of my Vuelta stage previews until the final week, Chris Horner deserves a mention; he’s certainly one of the best climbers in the world right now. Tejay van Garderen is another strong climber with a lot of soloing talent for a long breakaway. Andrew Talansky seems to be a support rider after a long season, and Taylor Phinney might not like all the climbing, but it’s a strong team. Zdenek Stybar is another late season star on a smaller squad: he showed in the Eneco Tour and Vuelta that he’s got an all-rounder package to rival the best of the best, with the ability to go for a long one, to make it up the punchy climbs, and to win a sprint to the line. As a former world CX champ, he won’t be bothered by the rain, either.

Finally, two of my top 10 favorites come from teams with just four and three riders, respectively: Ireland’s Dan Martin, Portugal’s Rui Costa. Martin had a boatload of early season success, winning the Volta a Catalunya and then one of the sport’s biggest events, Liege-Bastogne-Liege. He was looking good at the Tour de France before he got sick, and he was looking good at the Vuelta before he crashed out; in a way, maybe the lack of high mountain mileage will be good for him. His one-day climber’s resume (in addition to LBL, he was 4th, and milliseconds away from 3rd, at La Fleche Wallonne this year, top 10 in both last year, and a podium finisher in Lombardy in 2011) shows the explosive talent that could vaunt him over a late climb or prove useful in a reduced drag race. He has a small team, but Nicolas Roche is one of the best climbers in the business and a very capable teammate, and Martin showed in the spring how effectively he feeds off teammates in a one-day showdown.

Rui Costa has an even smaller squad of backers, but he is such a constant fixture in late season circuit races that I see him as a top challenger here. He’s been a winner in Montreal and on the podium in Quebec and Ouest France. He is known as a climber, but he’s got a strong soloing ability and has shown time and time again a very impressive ability to charge for the line. His aggressive riding netted him a pair of wins in the Tour de France this year on the heels of a Tour de Suisse win. Like Kwiatkowski, Moreno, Marin, and Valverde, if the climbing stars distance the Boasson Hagens and Cancellaras but reel in any late moves from Froome and Contador, Costa will be a favorite to outsprint the GC types. But even if Sagan is still there, I can see Costa on the podium, and he’s got the soloing skills to jump into a move if he sees it going places, too.

Other smaller team potential contenders include tough sprinters like John Degenkolb and Thor Hushovd (obviously big favorites if they make it to the finish, but that’s probably too much to ask), Lars Petter Nordhaug, Daryl Impey, Alexandr Kolobnev, Jakob Fuglsang, Matti Breschel, Maxim Iglinksiy, and Tanel Kangert.

After weeks of preparation, the riders finally get there shot at the rainbow on Sunday, and with the parcours and the quality of the field, you can guarantee a ferocious battle for the victory.

VeloHuman Predictions

Winner

Peter Sagan

Podium

Alejandro Valverde, Philippe Gilbert

Top 10

Fabian Cancellara, Rui Costa, Vincenzo Nibali, Daniel Martin, Daniel Moreno, Joaquim Rodriguez, Robert Gesink

-Dane Cash

Photos by Bruce Stokes and Michiel Jelijs.

September 28, 2013
UCI World Championship Individual Time Trial 2013 Preview

A World-class Race of Truth

After a year on Tony Martin’s back, the rainbow jersey of the time trialing world champ is up for grabs again in Florence. But what a year it’s been for the German, who won eight time trials across the stage races he’s taken on (including a win ahead of Chris Froome in the Mont St. Michel chrono in the Tour de France). Following so much success, Tony Martin will look defend his title, but competition will be fierce from a select few rivals: I see Martin as one of four riders with the potential to take the victory in 2013. The other three are Fabian Cancellara, Bradley Wiggins, and Taylor Phinney.

It’s close, but if I had to pick I’d favor Martin to repeat. He’s just shown an ability on another level this year, and this course suits him well: not much to speak of in the way of hills, just 50 kilometers of road for him to dominate with his otherworldly endurance. This weekend, he led Omega Pharma – Quick Step to a repeat world title in the TTT, and he’s had a year full of success. Really, the only chronos he’s lost have been prologue length or lumpy: most notably, Stage 11 in the Vuelta a Espana, which he lost to Fabian Cancellara by 37. It was a 38.8km affair with a categorized climb in the middle, which favored the Swiss star, and there will be no such complications in Florence.

Still, Cancellara is a four time world champ in this discipline coming off a two-Monument-winning year. He was on fire in the spring, and he rounded nicely back into form for his run-up to this race, winning the ITT in the Tour of Austria and, as has already been noted, in the Vuelta, where he also came close to a few non TT stage wins. He might prefer a hill or two (to put Martin and Phinney off their games), but he’s definitely got a lot of form right now.

Cancellara was smoked, however, in the recent Tour de Pologne time trial… by a resurgent Bradley Wiggins (Phinney took third in that event). Wiggins shook up his schedule this year to take on the Giro, where he put in a very strong ITT performance on stage 8. He probably would have won that stage had he not sprung a flat tire during his run; as it stood he was only 10 seconds behind the leader, Alex Dowsett. After withdrawing from the Giro, he went dark for a while, before showing up to dominate the ITT in Poland. It wasn’t a flat course, and Florence is, but the way Wiggins blew away the competition there inspires confidence in his ability right now, and he’s shown in his career that when he puts his mind to a goal, it’s hard to deny him. He comes into the World Champs having just won the Tour of Britain on the back of his ITT stage win.

Despite barely missing out on the rainbow jersey in last year’s WC ITT (he was a mere 6 seconds behind Martin) Taylor Phinney has little data to give us in terms of his TTing form: he’s only done three ITTs this year, and one of them he attempted while not-healthy (during the Giro, for which he was ultimately a DNF). He’s something of a wildcard, but the course suits him very well: the former Individual Pursuit World Champ is a big rider (1.96 meters, 82 kg) with a massive engine, and he thrives on flat, track-like courses. He knows this one well. I don’t see his 6th place in the short, not-flat Eneco Tour ITT or his 3rd place in the lumpy ITT in Poland as clear signs of being off form: his fantastic Tour de Pologne victory displayed just how good he is at soloing on a flat right now.

It’s hard to see past any of these four names for the gold, or even for the podium, but the other contenders include Italy’s Adriano Malori (3rd last year), his compatriot Marco Pinotti, the UK’s Alex Dowsett, last year’s U23 silver medalist Rohan Dennis, fellow Australian Richie Porte, former World Champ Bert Grabsch, Belarus’s Vasil Kiryienka, France’s Sylvain Chavanel (who won an Eneco Tour ITT in which Wiggins and Phinney were somewhat disappointing), Belgian Thomas De Gendt, and Jonathan Castroviejo of Spain.

Whoever nabs the rainbow jersey tomorrow will have defeated some serious talent on the way, and will deserve the 365 days of glory that come with the victory.

VeloHuman Predictions

Winner

Tony Martin

Podium

Bradley Wiggins, Fabian Cancellara

Top 10

Taylor Phinney, Adriano Malori, Richie Porte, Vasil Kiryienka, Sylvain Chavanel, Rohan Dennis, Marco Pinotti

-Dane Cash

Photo by Goldene-Speichen.de.

September 25, 2013
UCI World Championship Team Time Trial 2013 Preview

Team Rainbows

Ostensibly, I preview every WorldTour race here at VeloHuman, and the TTT at the UCI World Champs in Florence is technically a WT race, so I’m putting out a quick write-up, though I’m going to keep it brief. The route is pretty straightforward. The course is 50.3 km from Montecatini Terme to Florence, and it isn’t hilly: team time trials are already perhaps the discipline in pro cycling least likely to offer surprise winners, and the World Champs course isn’t going to change that.

The biggest favorite is Omega Pharma – Quick Step, who won the event last year and bring another powerhouse team this year, led by current ITT world champ Tony Martin. Backed up by Sylvain Chavanel, Michal Kwiatkowski, Peter Velits, Niki Terpstra, and Kristoff Vandewalle, they are the squad to beat: no weak links here, and no steep ascents or nasty descents to throw them off their game. Main challengers like Sky, Orica-GreenEdge, and BMC will have their work cut out for them. Sky’s got a big team here as well, despite the absence of Bradley Wiggins. Sky and OGE both have lineups very similar to their well-performing Tour de France teams (in the Stage 4 TTT of the Tour de France, Orica-GreenEdge narrowly defeated OPQS by less than one second, and Sky was just moments behind). BMC, on the other hand, has Taylor Phinney (2nd in the ITT World Champs last year) leading the way. Just as Phinney was runner-up to Martin in the individual event in 2012, his team was runner-up to Martin’s in the team event, and by a very narrow margin (three seconds), too. They’ll be out for revenge.

Other contenders include Garmin-Sharp (a squad mixing wiley veterans and young up-and-comers like Andrew Talansky) and RadioShack Leopard (led by four time ITT champ Fabian Cancellara, and strong performers in the Vuelta team time trial). Behind this pair, the odds get much longer: Astana, Belkin, and Movistar each have solid teams here, but I don’t think they’ll be able to put up times like OPQS and Sky will. Saxo-Tinkoff and Lotto-Belisol might outperform expectations.

Overperforming and defeating Omega Pharma at their bread and butter will be a tall task. I think a few times might surprise, but the winner will come from a very select pool of challengers.

VeloHuman Predictions

Winner

Omega Pharma – Quick Step

Podium

Sky, BMC

Top 10

Orica-GreenEdge, Belkin, Astana, Saxo-Tinkoff, Lotto-Belisol, RadioShack Leopard, Garmin-Sharp

-Dane Cash

Photo by Flowizm.

September 22, 2013
Vuelta a España 2013 Post-race Impressions: Ring in the Old, Ring in the New

Even More Unpredictable Than Predicted

Now that the peloton has finally ended its journey in Madrid, we can look back on a few of the storylines. The biggest storyline of the Vuelta is obviously the succcess of Christopher Horner, who improved on his previous best Grand Tour performance (a lone top 10, 9th in the Tour de France in 2010) by winning the race ahead of past winners Vincenzo Nibali and Joaquim Rodriguez. He won a stage early on and it seemed like a great feel-good story, the balding veteran outclassing the favorites for a day; then he proceeded to look stronger and stronger each day, ultimately dropping Nibali and the rest nearly whenever he set his mind to it. This was always going to be a race for a strong climber (the only individual time trial had a categorized climb right in the middle of it), and Horner was unquestioably the best climber in Spain these past three weeks. Obviously there are a lot of theories on how he managed to take everyone by surprise and dominate the ascents, but clearly fresh legs played a part, as Horner had little mileage prior to the start of the Vuelta, unlike the rest of the big favorites, who had all taken on the Giro or the Tour already. Similarly, Contador hadn’t raced a Grand Tour before his Vuelta win last year, and Juan Jose Cobo’s 2011 Vuelta was his first Grand Tour of the year as well. Future hopefuls should take note.

It’s important to note that as old as he is, it’s not like Horner came out of nowhere. His career has had an interesting arc: much of his prime was spent racing (and really dominating) the American circuit. When he did finally start to concentrate on the higher level Euro competition, he was already well into his 30s: but he had a lot of success, and didn’t really see any decline as he aged either. As recently as 2010 (the year he top 10ed in the Tour), he won Pais Vasco. He was 2nd there and 4th in Catalunya in 2011 (a year in which he also won the Tour of California), was 2nd in Tirreno-Adriatico and 9th in Pais Vasco in 2012, and was 6th at Tirreno-Adriatico this year. None of those results come close to winning the Vuelta, but they show that he’s quietly built quite a resume very late in his career: a Grand Tour win will be the perfect marquee accomplishment for the 41 year old. The question now is: where will he be next year? As explosive and resilient as he was in the Tour of Spain, he doesn’t have a team for next year. It’s only a matter of time before someone makes him an appealing offer commit his smiles and his small frame to their cause.

After losing the race he was so heavily favored to win just a week ago, Vincenzo Nibali probably isn’t smiling, but taking 1st place in a grueling Giro and then 2nd place in the Vuelta with all those Italian miles already in your legs is an unbelievable accoomplishment that deserves recognition even if it was disappointing for Nibali. A single Grand Tour podium in a year is a feat worthy enough of praise. Winning one and runnering up a second? Vincenzo Nibali will be one of a very select group of riders who will be seen as legitimate challengers to Froome in the 2014 Tour de France. Alejandro Valverde and Joaquim Rodriguez can both come away proud; Valverde nabbed the final spot on the podium after his disappointing Tour de France, and he also won the points jersey despite not actually winning any stages. Purito wanted more, but 4th and a beautiful stage victory on Alto del Naranco will look great in his Palmares.

Nicolas Roche entered the race with a stated goal of coming in in the top 5. 5th overall and a stage win felt like a long time coming for the rider who has displayed a lot of talent in the past few years, but never come away with much to show for it. And not to take anything away from winning a stage later on during a Grand Tour, but Roche’s victory came early in the race, against his GC rivals: no gimmes there. AG2R won’t mind Carlos Betancur’s complete anonymity so much given Domenico Pozzovivo’s 6th place overall performance. He quietly notched a pair of Grand Tour top 10s this year without all that much team support.

Thibaut Pinot rolled in 7th overall, dispelling a great deal of doubt after his forgettable Tour de France. He’s definitely gotten back on track: he didn’t seem to struggle on the descents, and he hung with the likes of Nibali and Horner for a good part of many of the hardest climbs. Remember, he’s only 23, and he’s now got a pair of Grand Tour top 10s to his name. With a focused offseason, Thibaut Pinot will hope to build on this late success next year. Another young GC rider who really stood out was Leopold Konig. Nabbing a GT Top 10 at the head of a Pro Continental team against stacked squads like Astana and Movistar is quite the feat. Like Roche, his stage victory was early on in the race, meaning that he had to outclass the best in the bunch to pick it up. And Daniel Moreno (10th) nabs his 3rd Vuelta top 10 in as many year, and perhaps even more impressively, on the heels of a major one-day victory in La Fleche Wallonne, he picked up two early stage wins, and held three different jerseys for a time; he’s following in his team leader’s footsteps, making a name for himself as a killer uphill finisher with the ability to find his way into a Grand Tour leaderboard as well.

Samuel Sanchez will be disappointed with 8th, but most observers didn’t view him as much more than an outside contender coming in. He never seemed to find his form, and it’s starting to look as if his best years are behind him. At least he comes away with more than fellow old guys Michele Scarponi and Ivan Basso–Basso didn’t really look all that bad in this race, but he vacated his 7th overall spot when he abandoned on a nasty Stage 14.

The biggest disappointment of the Vuelta has to be Team Sky. Sergio Henao came into the race as one of the favorites, and Rigoberto Uran was touted as a great second option if things went awry; awry they went, as neither rider was able to keep the pace when the road went up. To his credit, Uran came so close to a victory from a breakaway on Stage 16, but was denied by Warren Bargul at the line. Vasil Kiryienka’s stage win (actually the third career Grand Tour stage victory for the Belarusian, which is the same number that his teammate Bradley Wiggins has) was some consolation, but for all Henao’s potential, he failed to deliver in a big way.

Youth Is Served Winning Stages, and So Is the Rainbow Jersey

Michael Matthews and Warren Barguil have arrived. Matthews, the 22 year old Aussie sprinter, had been having enough success in smaller races this year that I definitely saw big things for him in the Vuelta, and he did not disappoint, winning first on the 5th stage and again on the final day of festivities in Madrid. For the past few years, Orica-GreenEdge has looked to one of his teammates on the sprint stages, especially the ones with hard roads to the finish line, but it looks like the time of Michael Matthews is upon us. Meanwhile, Maximiliano Richeze racked up four top 3 stage performances but failed to come away with a victory, which must be a heartbreak: he really looked like one of the fastest riders in the peloton, and was inches away from winning on multiple occasions. In a similar boat were Tyler Farrar and Gianni Meersman, who both made a habit of lurking around the top 5 on the sprint stages (four times), without ever notching a victory. Meersman gets a pass, as he has already had a great year up to this point, but Farrar ends his year looking desperately for his old winning ways. Clearly he’s still fast, but his only victories in the past two years have come in Continental Tours; the American doesn’t have a contract for next year, and obviously a big win would have helped make his case.

23 year old Warren Barguil took a brilliant win from the breakaway in Stage 13. Then, Barguil did it again on Stage 16 ahead of the immensely talented Rigoberto Uran in a drag race to the line. Taking a victory like that ahead of the explosive Giro and Olympic Road Race runner-up marks Barguil as a name to watch for the future. For his Argos-Shimano squad, it was “No Kittel or Degenkolb, no problem” in Spain this year. FDJ’s Alexandre Geniez and Kenny Elissonde both won mountain stages as breakaway survivors. And in stage after stage, 25 year old Nicolas Edet of Cofidis was constantly leading the breakers over the KOMs: he earned himself the title of King of the Mountains in the process. Seeing a pattern? All in all, France’s 25 and under crowd of Barguil, Geniez, Elissonde, Edet, and Pinot took between them four stage victories, the polka dot jersey, and 7th overall in GC; quite a haul for les Francois after they came up short of expectations in the Tour de France.

Another impressive young breaker was Daniele Ratto, who won a grueling 14th stage that saw mass abandons all by himself on a mountaintop finish.

Zdenek Stybar isn’t exactly young (27), but he’s young to road racing, and the former CX world champ added to his amazing year jumping ahead late with Philippe Gilbert and beating him a photo finish to steal the 7th stage from the sprinters at Mairena de Aljafare.

Fortunately, Gilbert’s long, demoralizing drought of victories in the rainbow jersey ended in the following week when he outsprinted Edvald Boasson Hagen and Maximiliano Richeze to win stage 12. He’s come very close time and time again this year, but a win has eluded him. Outsprinting some of the fastest men in this race to get it meant that he ended his wait in grand style.

Three weeks of racing have finally come to a close, and in the end, the Vuelta was full of surprises for riders both young and old. We were treated to visions of riders who could be around for years to come (riders like Matthews, Stybar, Barguil, Konig, and Pinot), and of riders who finally took long awaited victories (Horner and Gilbert). Up next? The race that so many of these big names were preparing for when they decided to make the trip to Spain: the 2013 UCI World Championships.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Esteban Lamas

September 17, 2013
Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal 2013 Preview

WorldTouring in North America, Chapter 2

The WorldTour’s three most recent one-day winners: John Degenkolb, Filippo Pozzato, and now, Robert Gesink. One or two years ago, this set of winners might have seemed totally predictable, but in 2013? It’s as if all of these guys who have been flying under the radar decided to reenter the scene in grand style at the same time. Belkin has had a great week, with Bauke Mollema stealing a stage from the power sprinters at the Vuelta, and Robert Gesink outsprinting Peter Sagan himself in Quebec. As closely as the two are tied together, and as often as they share common riders in their leaderboards, GP Quebec is an important foreshadower for GP Montreal.

That race came down to a very reduced sprint with some marquee names, guys we expected to be right there, like Peter Sagan, Greg Van Avermaet, and Rui Costa. Things pretty much went as expected, right up to the point where Robert Gesink (with Arthut Vichot not far behind) passed all those pre-race favorites for the victory. Obviously Gesink is a major talent (he won Montreal in 2010 and was 2nd at Quebec in 2012), but 1. his Palmares have been so lacking lately, and 2. his career resume hasn’t really shown any evidence of a high caliber sprinting ability: with a kilometer to go and Tom Jelte Slagter also with the lead group, I wouldn’t have even picked Gesink to be the highest placed rider from his own team, let alone in the whole race. But while Sagan and Van Avermaet seemed just too exhausted to keep up on the ascent to the line, Gesink powered ahead and took a commanding win. With a career that primarily features results in climber’s races, Gesink seemed like a better pick (albeit an outside one) to get involved in Montreal; if this is the kind of form he’s got right now, and if he’s suddenly realized that he has a heck of a sprint within him, he goes from a worthy-of-a-mention-as-a-past-winner pick to one of the favorites for the second of the Canadian WorldTour dates.

Like its sister race, the Grand Prix Cycliste Montreal has a profile that provides great opportunities for successful attacks on the final lap. Unlike its sister race, Montreal’s big climbs come earlier in the circuit (Côte Camilien-Houde, 1.8 km at 8%, and Côte de la Polytechnque, 0.78 km at 6&), and they’re followed by several kms of gentle descent, and the finish in Montreal, while uphill, is only a few hundreds meters at a few percent grade, rather than a long upward drag: in other words, the race favors attackers who can go from much further out, and it also is friendlier than Quebec was to any sprinters who beat the odds and manage to stay up front. Last year, Lars Petter Nordhaug (then of Team Sky, now of Belkin) made a move from several kilometers out. Rui Costa in 2011 and Robert Gesink in the inaugural edition in 2011 also made moves from several kilometers out.

Gesink’s sprint is what surprised everyone on Friday; we’ve always known he could climb and put in a sustained effort. It’s those skills that won him this race in 2010, and now that we know he’s got quite a kick, he’s got a great shot again here. But Sagan will be out to improve on his placing from Quebec, as will Greg Van Avermaet, Rui Costa, and up-and-comer Arthur Vichot, all of whom finished with the lead group not very far behind Gesink in Quebec. Costa won this thing two years ago and he’s my favorite rider to launch a successful long attack, but he’s also got the kick to outsprint a reduced group. FDJ’s Vichot has had a fine year, runner-up yesterday and French national champion not long ago; he was also in the mix in the finale at Quebec last year and like Costa, he’s got a varied skillset and could either make an early jump or hang with a small group. I like his chances. Sagan and Van Avermaet might find it harder to come across with the lead bunch or to launch a big attack early, as the higher altitude hills in Montreal are likely to break up the race on the final laps, but if they do, the finish suits them more than it did in Quebec. I’ll throw out some familiar names of real fastmen who will also appreciate the finish if they can just make it there at the head of the race: John Degenkolb, Filippo Pozzato, Giacomo Nizzolo, Matti Breschel, Matt Goss, and Luka Mezgec are the biggest ones for me. The way Degenkolb has been going, I think it’s a real possibility he is in the final group chasing down the final break, and Breschel was, of course, in the top 10 in Quebec on Friday.

Should the truer sprinters all be dropped, I’d imagine the danger men in the pack pursuing the last breakers will include: Tom-Jelte Slagter of Belkin, Fabian Wegmann of Garmin-Sharp, Jan Bakelants and Tony Gallopin of Radioshack, Michal Kwiatkowski of Omega Pharma-Quick Step, Jurgen Roelandts of Lotto Belisol, Bjorn Leukemans of Vacansoleil, Francesco Gavazzi, Simone Ponzi, and Borut Bozic of Astana, and Francisco Ventoso of Movistar.

But since this is a race with a pretty serious incline in the circuit that will tire out everyone in the field and will surely launch some bids for glory, perhaps the most important question will be: who launches the marquee attack as the race nears its finish? If it’s not one of the riders mentioned above, last year’s winner Lars Petter Nordhaug seems like a great place to start. Recent results have been lacking, though, so the top alternative choices include Pierrick Fedrigo (2nd behind Costa in 2011), Ryder Hesjedal (3rd in 2010), Niki Terpstra (who was off the front until the end on Friday, finishing 6th), Alexander Kolobnev, Simon Geschke, Enrico Gasparotto, Sylvain Chavanel, Simon Spilak, and Christophe Riblon and Cadel Evans, who led the chasers over the line behind Sagan at GP Quebec. OGE’s stable of Michael Albasini, Pieter Weening, Sebastian Langeveld, and Cameron Meyer and Euskaltel’s squad of climbers, like the Izagirre brothers, are also great bets to animate the race from a distance. Evans and Hesjedal seem the most motivated of the Grand Tour stars here, but any one of Froome, Contador, Porte, Schleck, Talansky and van Garderen might decide to go for a long one as well.

However it goes down, long distance attack or late catch and pass by a bunch, I think the Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal is going to end with many of the same names from Friday towards the front, riders who combine a strong kick with an aggressive style and a whole lot of endurance.

VeloHuman Predictions

Winner

Peter Sagan

Podium

Rui Costa, Robert Gesink

Top 10

Greg Van Avermaet, Tom Jelte-Slagter, John Degenkolb, Arthur Vichot, Matti Breschel, Jurgen Roelandts, Niki Terpstra

-Dane Cash

Photo by O. Taillon.

September 15, 2013