VeloHuman

Tag: 2013

  • Tour de Pologne 2013 Pre-race Outlook

    PologneAll-rounder Roundup

    Vincenzo Nibali and a tri of Sky stars (Sergio Henao, Rigoberto Uran, and Bradley Wiggins) are all returning to action at this week’s Tour de Pologne. They’ll be facing stiff competition for a rules-overhauled race: teams are made up of only six riders this time around, and there are time bonuses, not only for finish lines, but also at intermediate points in each stage. The rules will favor aggressive riding. However, any surprise contenders who manage to take advantage of the time bonuses will have to prove they belong with a strong performance in the final day’s not-too-hilly 37 kilometer time trial. With so much incentive for attacking, a likelihood of major leaderboard changes on the last day, and not a single flat day in the race, the 2013 Tour de Pologne promises excitement.

    If he’s targetting the race and has remained on form, Nibali is a major favorite here; however, these are non neglibigle ifs. Nibali has been on fire all year and he will be prepping for the upcoming Vuelta a España. On the one hand, he won’t have many other chances to get back into gear; on the other hand, he took last year’s Dauphine easy before the subsequent Tour de France, and he took the previous year’s Tour de Pologne easy before the ensuing Vuelta a España. With a summit finish on day 1, we’ll know soon whether he is targetting this race, but until then, it’s hard to say. The way his year is going, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him gunning for it here, and if he isn’t at his sharpest on day 1, I dont’ think it will take long. His teammate Tanel Kangert is probably less of a question mark. The Estonian all-rounder was a key ally in the Giro, where he showed excellent form as Nibali’s top lieutenant. Then, he managed a 6th place at the Tour de Suisse among the impressive company of Rui Costa, Bauke Mollema, and Roman Kreuziger. With a time trial on the last day, Kangert has a great shot at this Tour de Pologne, and I think the team would be glad to support him if he does well in the first few days.

    Team Sky brings three potential winners to the starting line (which is actually in Italy), but I don’t see all of them pushing for the victory. Sergio Henao looks to have the team’s support. He was third in last year’s edition, and this year has been third in Pais Vasco and second in La Fleche Wallonne. He seemed to fade a bit in the Giro, but he has had plenty of time to recover and as an aggressive rider with a strong time trial, he is well-suited to this year’s Tour de Pologne. Because I don’t doubt that he will be targetting the win, he’d be the rider I’d be most comfortable putting money on to make the podium. Bradley Wiggins has been in the news mostly as a footnote to Froome’s story this year. If he has given this race his full attention, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a decent early showing, steady improvement, and a strong time trial to finish the race, though I doubt he’ll mount a serious challenge for the overall victory. Rigoberto Uran is here, and likely will want to get back into form for the upcoming Vuelta, where he will again take on Vincenzo Nibali. I don’t know that I see Uran putting too much thought into this as anything other than a cometitive training exercise. Still, it’s impossible to ignore the guy who took 2nd at the Giro when so many of the other big contenders have also taken plenty of time off. Sky isn’t a team to rest on its laurels, and if any of their options falters, another will be there to pick up the slack (see: d’Italia, Giro).

    Rafal Majka, of home nation Poland, notched a 7th place at this year’s Giro, and he’ll have the podium in mind. Luis Leon Sanchez, an aggressive rider and a strong time trialist, is on a strong Belkin squad that also includes Stef Clement and Steven Kruijswijk. Sanchez doesn’t have many results to prove his form this year, but he podiumed in both the time trial and the road race in Spain’s national championships this year, which should put to bed any concerns. Simon Spilak was only so-so at the Tour de Suisse in June, but he’s had a good stage-racing 2013, placing 2nd to go with a stage win in Romandie, 4th in Pais Vasco, and 6th in Catalunya. Mathias Frank looks like BMC’s biggest threat, and he’s coming off back-to-back stage wins in the Tour of Austria. It’s hard to see him beating out the really marquee names here, especially with that final time trial, but a top 10 is certainly within reach.

    Stagehunters

    The 2013 Tour de Pologne was not designed with stagehunters in mind, and therefore, this section will be more of a stub. Perhaps hilly stages 3 and 4 will go to a sprinter, but otherwise, the rest of Pologne’s seven stages will likely be contested by the overall favorites, especially with the immense time bonuses on the line, which could limit the opportunities of the pure breakaway specialists to get free of the all-rounders looking for chances to pick up bonus seconds. As such, the race is nearly bereft of pure sprinters. Watch out for Thor Hushovd, Ben Swift, Francisco Ventoso, Mark Renshaw, and Luka Mezgec in the stages that end in bunch sprints, though they will be contending with the heavy hitters looking for bonuses. The individual time trial on stage 7 has drawn a few TT specialists as well. Fabian Cancellara and Taylor Phinney will face off with the GC men (some very good TTists there) on the final stage, and they could conceivaly make a run at the aforementioned medium mountain stage finishes, too.

    Predictions

    Winner

    Sergio Henao

    Podium

    Vincenzo Nibali, Tanel Kangert

    Other Strong Contenders

    Bradley Wiggins, Luis Leon Sanchez, Simon Spilak, Rafal Majka, Rigoberto Uran

    Stages

    Stage 1: Rovereto > Madonna di Capiglio | 184.5km | Summit Finish

    Stage 2: Val di Sole > Val di Fassa | 206.5km | Summit Finish

    Stage 3: Krakow > Rzeszow | 226km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 4: Tarnow > Katowice | 231.5km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 5: Nowy Targ > Zakopane | 160.5 | High Mountains

    Stage 6: Bukovina Terma Hotel Spa > Bukowina Tatrzanska | 192km | Medium Mountains

    Stage 7: Wieliczka > Krakow | 37km | ITT

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by mc czoper.

  • Clásica de San Sebastián 2013 Pre-race Outlook

    Sebastian

    Back into the Saddle

    The Clásica de San Sebastián showcases a number of serious climbing specialists and puncheurs, many of whom are getting right back into the saddle after a grueling Tour de France and still looking for chances to shine. The profile is dotted with classic Basque Country climbs. Scaling the Category 1 Jaizkibel twice, the second time about 40 kilometers from the finish line, should force some selection. A Cat 2 with less than 20km to go could provide a springboard for attacks, but it is the unclassified bump in the road just a few kilometers from the end of the race that has played launchpad for many of the races recent winners, including Philippe Gilbert and Luis Leon Sanchez.

    Luis Leon Sanchez will be absent from the startlist in 2013. Gilbert is here again this year, but picking him to win anything seems to be a losing game recently. Instead, it looks like this edition will be be a battle royale between some of the biggest names of the recent Tour de France. Of those big names, few riders probably want to make a statement win more than Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde, and the San Sebastian parcours suits his combination of sprinting and climbing. He’ll need to be aggressive (recent winners of this race have been) but he should be capable of both keeping up with last-ditch strikes and outsprinting a select group to the line, and after his terrible luck in the Tour, I don’t think he’ll want for aggression. Omega Pharma-Quick Step sends two potential contenders from Paris to the startling line in Sylvain Chavanel and Michal Kwiatkowski. Chavanel was constantly at the head of the pack in the Tour, but never made much of a mark; doubtless he’ll try something here, but I don’t see him having success against this field on this succession of ascents. The very young Kwiatkowski might be my favorite to win were he not coming off his first Tour effort. Still, he climbed well even into the Alps, and he has had a few days to recover: if Kwiatkowski can hang with the lead group, he can sprint with the best of them, and he can sustain a long distance strike, too. Simon Gerrans is another rider with a strong post-climb sprint, but with Orica GreenEdge’s stable of rouleurs and sprinters-who-can-climb, it is difficult to pick any one to shine ahead of the others. If the team helps him make it to the line, he’s very dangerous in the closing kilometer. Moreno Moser, winner of last year’s Tour de Pologne, showed strong form on the Alpe d’Huez a few days ago. He battled Kwiatkowski fiercely in Poland last year, and I can see both young riders jockeying for position here if a select group finishes together. Roman Kreuziger, in the middle of a career year that includes a win at Amstel Gold, a podium in the Tour de Suisse and a top 10 finish in the Tour, leads a Saxo-Tinkoff team not dissimilar from the Tour squad: Roche and Rogers will be in attendance, too. If he can solo over the Cauberg, Kreuziger can hang on here, as well. Bauke Mollema apparently caught ill in the Tour’s mountain time trial in which he lost so much time. Recovered, he could certainly show up at San Sebastian. He was 5th here last year, his climbing has form has never been better, and lest anyone forget, he had the finishing kick to secure the points classification at the 2011 Vuelta. With no Joaquim Rodriguez, Alexandr Kolobnev looks like Katusha’s best chance here. He was second all the way back in 2008, and this year he’s coming off a strong Tour of Wallonie and will be fresher than many of his Tour-wearied opponents. Lastly, Gilbert’s teammate Greg Van Avermaet is coming off an extremely successful Tour de Wallonie, in which he won two stages, the points classification, and the overall race. He was third here in 2011: whether or not he finishes highly will depend on the pace up the final climbs (and, of course, whether he is targetting a victory Saturday in the first place). He won’t be able to hang with any of the pure climbers if they make any aggressive attacks late, but if things come back together, he could contend with the likes of Simon Gerrans for a sprint finish with a select group.

    VeloHuman Predictions

    Winner

    Alejandro Valverde

    Podium

    Roman Kreuziger, Michal Kwiatkowski

    Other Strong Contenders

    Simon Gerrans, Bauke Mollema, Greg van Avermaet, Alexandr Kolobnev, Moreno Moser

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by malomen.

  • Tour de France 2013 Post-race Impressions: Froome Lightyears Ahead and a Youth Movement on the Rise

    Paris2

    Brief Recap

    After Chris Froome crested stage 8’s Ax-3 Domaines way ahead of everyone else in contention, many were worried that the remaining two weeks of competition would be boring. While Team Sky’s 28-year old leader held onto the jersey tightly all the way to Paris, even increasing his lead on the rest of the bunch, this year’s two was anything but boring, even after Froome’s dominant first high mountain stage.

    Froome increased his lead with a predictably awesome time trial on Stage 11. He lost around one minute when Saxo-Tinkoff and Belkin broke away on a windy flat stage, but gained it right back climbing up Mont Ventoux. He put in another masterful performance in the mountain time trial, though this time his rivals kept their time losses to a minimum. The pressure was high heading into the double ascent of Alpe d’Huez on stage 18, the first of three grueling Alpine stages, but Froome never cracked. Breakaways took stages 18 and 19, though the GC contenders duked it out when they reached the slopes, and stage 20 saw a showdown between all top climbers in the peloton, but despite the best effort of Joaquim Rodriguez, and stacked teams like Movistar and Saxo-Tinkoff, Froome’s lead barely shrunk. The high uphill tempos across the last few days were too much for Contador, who tumbled down to 4th place by the time all was said and done in the mountains, unable to keep up with Froome, Quintana, and Rodriguez on the steep summits: the relentless assaults by the young Colombian Quintana and seasoned veteran Rodriguez nabbed them spots on the podium beside the man who dominated the Tour almost from start to finish, Chris Froome. The final results looked like this:

    1. Christopher Froome (UK) Sky Procycling | 83:56:40

    2. Nairo Alexander Quintana Rojas (Col) Movistar Team | +0:04:20

    3. Joaquim Rodriguez Oliver (Spa) Katusha | +0:05:04

    4. Alberto Contador Velasco (Spa) Team Saxo-Tinkoff | +0:06:27

    5. Roman Kreuziger (Cze) Team Saxo-Tinkoff | +0:07:27

    6. Bauke Mollema (Ned) Belkin Pro Cycling Team| +0:11:42

    7. Jakob Fuglsang (Den) Astana Pro Team | +0:12:17

    8. Alejandro Valverde Belmonte (Spa) Movistar Team | +0:15:26

    9. Daniel Navarro Garcia (Spa) Cofidis, Solutions Credits | +0:15:52

    10. Andrew Talansky (USA) Garmin-Sharp | +0:17:39

    Peter Sagan won the Points Classification, and Nairo Quintana won both the King of the Mountains polka dots and the white jersey of the best young rider.

    Froome Dominates and Young Guns Step Up

    Starting with the obvious, Froome was simply head and shoulders above the competition. The 100th edition of the Tour de France was very exciting to watch, but the fiercest competition was for the other two spots on the podium: Froome’s hold on the top was basically unassailable. He jumped well ahead early in the Pyrenees, solidified his position with stellar time trialing, and held on through the Alps despite vicious assaults from Nairo Quintana and Joaquim Rodriguez. His teammate Richie Porte showed rare talent as well, and together they were able to overpower the competition on the summit finishes. Porte gave everything he had for Froome’s victory, gladly sacrificing his own top 10 aspirations for the cause, and I fully believe he could have been on the podium had he not done so: he went so hard leading Froome up stage 8’s climb that he was exhausted on stage 9, and he chose not to contest stage 17’s time trial so as to save energy to lead Froome through the Alps. The word is that he’ll be given team leadership at one of the other two Grand Tours, and I believe that if he focuses on his position rather than a teammate’s, he’s more than capable of a Grand Tour win.

    QuintanaWhile Froome’s lead was never really in doubt, a number of young riders achieved other immense successes at the 100th Tour de France. The festivities started and ended with Marcel Kittel winning stages. His final tally was four stage wins, and he beat Mark Cavendish and Andre Greipel in flat sprints more than once. After years of dominance from the Manx Missile, who had never been beaten on the Tour’s final day, Kittel’s emergence at age 25 promises to give cycling fans a real show of speed for the next several years. At age 23, Peter Sagan dominated the points competition in a manner similar to Froome’s dominance of the general classification. And of course, Colombian prodigy Nairo Quintana arrived loudly and clearly, adding a stage win, 2nd overall, the young rider’s jersey, and the King of the Mountains jersey to his resume. What a year he has had, winning the Tour of the Basque Country in style (beating the likes of Alberto Contador and Richie Porte in the final day’s time trial to take the win) and now this. His team gave most of its support to Alejandro Valverde for the first two weeks of the race; with full support, if Quintana can improve his time trial and his attacking strategy, he is more than capable of repeating or even bettering this performance in the future, as he isn’t even close to hitting his prime. Andrew Talansky clawed his way back after a day of suffering in the heat of the Pyrenees early on and found himself in the General Classification Top 10 when the peloton finally rolled over the finish line in Paris, good enough for second in the young rider’s competition. Michal Kwiatkowski finished in the top 10 of six separate stages with varying profiles, and he managed to nab 11th place overall in the Tour. Surely, in a few years, he could be a top 10 favorite here, or a favorite for the points classifications of the Vuelta or Giro, where points aren’t split up to favor the sprinters over other riders. He was one of the most complete riders in the Tour de France, with a rare combination of climbing, sprinting, and time trialing ability.

    There were many other great storylines to follow as well. For all the success Nairo Quintana had, his team struggled in the middle of the Tour. Alejandro Valverde fell out of contention for the podium on stage 13 due to mechanical problems on a windy day, and Rui Costa plummmeted, too, when Movistar sent him back to help Valverde. Undeterred, the team fought tooth and nail for glory over the last several days: Costa won not one but two stages, and Valverde powered his way back into the top 10 overall.

    Much was made of the contenders’ form heading into the first days of the Tour in Corsia. Of the four biggest favorites (Froome, Contador, Rodriguez, Valverde), only Froome seemed to be in impeccable form, having won every stage race he attempted this year except for Tirreno-Adriatico, in which he placed second to Giro winner Vincenzo Nibali. Contador, on the other hand was only so-so all year long, prompting questions about his ability to peak in time. Rodriguez had a strong spring and then struggled in the Dauphine. Valverde also had a strong spring and wasn’t great in the Dauphine. As it turned out, starting on form made all the difference for Froome, as it was his first real mountain day that put him virtually out of reach. Contador, meanwhile, never did really round into old form; 4th isn’t anything to sneeze at, but he could never really keep up with the top 3 riders in the race. Joaquim Rodriguez steadily improved as the Tour went on, chipping away at an early deficit to the other contenders and improving his position in the Alps. Valverde will be left wondering what might have been had he not suffered some very bad luck on stage 13; he finished ahead of Contador on both Alpine summit finishes and his stages 8 and 11 had originally given him an impressive chunk of time on Purito and around half a minute on Contador. In any case, Froome has been dominant all year and continued his dominance into the Tour, Rodrigez and Valverde showed good form earlier in the year and were able to maintain a high level and then peak again for the Tour, and Contador never showed his old levels of ability earlier this year and was unable to round into form this July.

    Other riders who impressed? Roman Kreuziger, Bauke Mollema, and Jakob Fuglsang. All 28 or younger. Kreuziger managed a 5th place despite working for his teammate Alberto Contador. Bauke Mollema was as high as 2nd as late as stage 14, but he faded a bit as the Tour crested more and more summits—still, he adds a 6th overall to a resume that already includes a 4th overall and the points classification at the Vuelta. Jakob Fuglsang was steady throughout the race despite having very little team support compared to the other riders who finished in the top 8—given the kind of help from Astana that his teammate Vincenzo Nibali gets, Fuglsang could take on the Giro or Vuelta with podium aspirations while the Shark heads to the Tour. With Rodrigez, Valverde, and Contador all on the wrong side of 30, these guys could be hanging around Grand Tour top 10s a lot in years to come.

    On the other hand, it would be an oversight not to mention BMC’s terrible three weeks. Despite their massive team budget, the red and black squad managed no stage wins and didn’t place anyone in even the top 20 overall. For some reason, team management expected Cadel Evans to perform at a high level despite the fact that he entered the race only a month after finishing a grueling Giro. His Tour was a flop–he lost a lot of time on stages 8 and 11 and then faded badly after. Tejay van Garderen fell out of contention early, finishing over twelve minutes behind Froome on stage 8, apparently due to an inability to cope with heat in the Pyrenees. Philippe Gilbert proved again that if your form wasn’t good heading into the Tour, it’s probably not going to magically appear when you get there. His best finish was 5th on stage 3. In the wake of so much team failure, BMC sports director John Lelangue has just quit his job.

    Edvald Boasson Hagen, Jurgen Van Den Broeck, Jean-Christophe Peraud, and others were forced to abandon after suffering various serious injuries. Peraud broke his collarbone on an early morning recon ride of stage 17’s time trial course when he was still in the top 10 overall: he started the race that day anyway, only crash and fall on the same side, one of the more cringe-worthy moments of the Tour. Hopefully they will all recover quickly.

    And to end positively? Daniel Navarro went from 20th overall and more than twenty-three minutes behind Froome after stage 15 to 8th overall by the time the peloton rode into Paris, thanks to a few breakaway successes and a good ride up the Semnoz. What a climb up the leaderboard! Jens Voigt, age 41, treated us to what may have been the last Tour de France breakaway attack of his career. Peter Sagan gave chanting fans what they wanted time and again with his trademark wheelie-popping, even doing it without hands on occasion. And to showcase a little globalization, a South African, Daryl Impey, wore the yellow jersey from stage 6 to stage 8 before he handed it over to Chris Froome, who was himself, of course, born in Africa.

    The Tour de France may be cycling’s biggest race, but the 2013 season still has yet to present the third Grand Tour, the Vuelta a Espana, as well as the final Monument Classic, the Giro di Lombardia, and the World Championship race, in addition to a number of other major events on the calendar. This Saturday will showcase not one but TWO WorldTour races, with the start of the Tour de Pologne, and the single-day Clasica de San Sebastian. Many of the same riders you saw in the Tour de France will be targetting these races to come, as will some of the sports biggest names who skipped the Tour this year, names like Bradley Wiggins, Vincenzo Nibali, and Fabian Cancellara. To summarize: keep watching! There are a number of big events right around the corner!

    -Dane Cash

    Photos by Natalie Marchant and Tom Ducat-White.

  • Tour de France 2013 Day 19: Where We Stand After Seventeen Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 18-21

    Top10ChasersDay 19: The Finale Is Here

    Stages 15, 16, and 17 showcased some awesome cycling. After a Sagan-led breakaway took the intermediate sprint early in the day, the heavy hitters caught up with them as the road started going up, and Sky’s dynamic duo laid waste to the best climbers in the world on the way up. By the time Porte pulled off, few were left to contest the day, and soon it was a battle royale between Froome and the young challenger Nairo Quintana. Quintana made a brave effort, but Froome matched every attack and then dropped him. The yellow jersey winner finished first, and in the process, he gained back much of what time he had lost to the other favorites in the crosswinds a few days before. Purito Rodriguez zoomed past Contador on the slopes to take fourth, crossing the line with an impressive Mikel Nieve (who is now the only guy focusing solely on the KoM competition that actually has a shot) to show that his form has arrived. Most of the other contenders for the top 10 of General Classification rolled in close together, though this was the stage that finally ended any hopes past winners Cadel Evans and Andy Schleck had of finishing among those ten. Lotto Belisol’s Bart de Clercq deserves a mention for finishing 11th, ahead of some big names like Kwiatkowski and Dan Martin.

    Stage 16 was predictably unpredictable, a day for the breakaway, and as usual, many of the big breakaway types jumped and many didn’t do anything at all (I’m looking at you, Gerrans, Clarke, and Chavanel). Rui Costa, whose GC hopes were smashed when Movistar sent him back to (fruitlessly) help Valverde back when said team leader was getting gapped by the peloton in the crosswinds, got into the break and, once there, realized that he was easily the best man in the best form in the bunch. He attacked on the final climb and stayed away for the win, well-earned. But there was also some real action going on further back in the race, where Katusha attacked on the same climb when they reached it several minutes later. They were matched by a group with most of the big contenders, but they left behind the likes of Laurens Ten Dam, Jakob Fuglsang, Michal Kwiatkowski, Dan Martin, Jean-Christophe Peraud, and Michael Rogers for a final gap of about a minute.

    Stage 17 threatened to be extremely dangerous, what with a technical descent and a nasty, rainy forecast, but for the most part, the big names emerged unscathed, except for Jean-Christophe Peraud, who fractured his collar bone in a recon ride crash, raced anyway, and then crashed and fell onto the same side during the time trial, forcing him to abandon. Froome won the day rather predictably, but Contador wasn’t off by much, and (of the potential podium contenders) neither were Quintana, Kreuziger, or Joaquim Rodriguez. Unfortunately for him and Dutch fans everywhere, Bauke Mollema, typically a very good time trialist, finished a full two minutes down on Alberto Contador, with whom he had been vying for second place. The Dutch rider slides into fourth following the bad day.

    Heading into the Tour’s big three Alpine stages, Froome has a gap of over four and a half minutes on Contador and Kreuziger, who themselves have roughly two minutes on Mollema and Quintana, with Rodriguez half a minute back from that. It is hard to see any other riders than these making it onto the General Classification podium in Paris.

    Stage 18: Gap > Alpe-d’Huez | 172.5km | Summit Finish

    The long-awaited double climb of Alpe-d’Huez is finally here. The peloton will take on an early Cat 2, and then a Cat 3 before the feed station, and then the Category 2 Col d’Ornon and a descent to the intermediate sprint, before they finally begin the steep slopes of Alpe-d’Huez. After reaching the summit, the riders must climb the short but steep Col de Sarenne, a Cat 2, before strapping in for a steep, dangerous descent. After almost 30km of mostly downhill roads, the riders must climb Alpe-d’Huez one more time. A brutal day, for sure, and one that will offer many opportunities for attacks to stick and gaps to form. Team Sky will face relentless attacks from Movistar and Saxo-Tinkoff, and down a few men, they may struggle to control the race. Contador and Joaquim Rodriguez have both had a very strong three days in the saddle, and after disappointing Dauphiné’s from both, it seems the form is finally there. Contador’s second-in-command Roman Kreuziger has yet to falter by his leader’s side as well. Meanwhile, Bauke Mollema seems to be fading at the worst possible time. After a valiant first two weeks, I do not know how much Belkin has left in the tank.

    Alpe

    Froome has had fun winning three stages this Tour while he ups his lead overall, but I think he knows he shouldn’t take his eyes off the real prize, which may mean finally riding a bit more conservatively on this dangerous stage. At nearly seven minutes down, Quintana would need to pick up serious ground to pass Froome for the yellow jersey. Ergo, Froome will be more concerned about Contador and Kreuziger than the young Movistar rider, and that favors Quintana attacking for the stage. Don’t be surprised to see another climbing specialist let out ahead as well, Mikel Nieve. Nieve crested Ax 3 Domaines sixth and Mont Ventoux third: he is quite capable of handling the long slogs toward the sky, and far more so than Quintana, he doesn’t pose a threat to Froome. If Nieve can stay on the right wheels and make it through the first 160 km of the race with the pack, he has a fine shot of getting up to the summit finish first or second. Or maybe Froome doesn’t give anyone any breathing room, as has been his M.O. throughout the Tour so far. In any case, I don’t know that I see Rodriguez or Valverde liking the long ascents as best fitting their abilities. Kreuziger might be well positioned to attack on the Sarenne and then fly down the mountainside with his best-of-the-bunch descending skills, but he has stuck close by Contador’s side so far this year, so such an attack would only be called for as a strategic move to put pressure on Froome rather than as a way for Kreuziger himself to advance, and it seems likely that such a move would get swallowed up on the final ascent.

    VeloHuman Favorites

    1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Alberto Contador | 4. Roman Kreuziger

    Watch Out For

    Mikel Nieve

    Stage 19: Le Bourg-d’Oisans > Le Grand-Bornand | 204.5km | High Mountains

    With two Hors Categorie climbs in the first half of the day and then three more categorized climbs before the finish (a Cat 2 and then a pair of Cat 1s), stage 19 could completely ruin the top 10 hopes of any rider whose legs are starting to falter at this stage of the Tour. Those feeling fresh will surely put the hammer down early to weaken the field quickly. Laurens Ten Dam has been a real surprise so far this Tour, but this is the sort of day that could crack his admirable resolve. Roman Kreuziger and Daniel Martin are both climbers who have had great career successes on single day races and short stage races (each taking an Ardennes Classic this spring), but days like this after nearly three weeks of racing are the sort of thing that separate the classics guys from the winners of the Grand Tours. Given his unassailable dominance so far, I think Froome will pass the long test. With a strong team around him, Contador should be right there with the captain of Team Sky at the end of the day, and I do think Kreuziger will be there with him. In fact, the race’s finish, over 10 km of steep descent, favors the aggressive Czech rider. If he makes it to the final climb and is able to perform his duties as Contador’s lieutenant most of the way up, Kreuziger could use his Ardennes-proven talent for sharp attacks and then descend at full speed for the win. With that descent, there is also potential for a very select group to finish together, and a sprint among climbers is exactly what Alejandro Valverde will aim for to at least salvage something from his unfortunate Tour de France experience. Joaquim Rodriguez, too, would surely love to take a shot at it, either near the summit of the final climb, or in the final sprint. If Kwiatkowski is still here, it’s a great last few hundred meters for him, but I don’t know that he’ll be able to hang on all day without much of a team for help. Gaps are likely to be small or nonexistent, so if a group of heavy hitters reaches the final climb together, I imagine Froome will be content to roll over the line with them rather than attempting to push his luck descending or sprinting, which are not his forte.

    VeloHuman Favorites

    1. Roman Kreuziger | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Joaquim Rodriguez | 4. Chris Froome

    Stage 20: Annecy > Mont Semnoz | 125km | Summit Finish

    At only 125 kilometers, the penultimate stage of the Tour will be ridden lightning fast. Climbers who have yet to make their marks with a stage win will be attacking and counter-attacking like mad here, and the GC types will be focused on making it through without losing ground in the chaos of six categorized climbs, including an HC summit finish. I would imagine we will again see Mikel Nieve trying to get ahead for mountain points, but there will likely be a number of chasers for every attack. Anyone close to the podium, especially Alberto Contador, who doesn’t like to settle for second place, will have until the final summit to attack the man in yellow. Lots of action, but I see Froome cresting the summit before anyone. It’s the last climber’s stage of the Tour, and Froome won’t need to worry about storing energy for any more Alpine climbs. I imagine any long-range attacks from lesser riders will be reeled in by those higher up the ladder who don’t want to lose their places, and I imagine the legitimate volleys from those challenging for the podium will ultimately be answered by Froome, who has just been so much better than his competitors so far. And if the other contenders have managed to close the gap by this stage? Well what better place than a summit finish for the Tour’s best diesel climber to make his final statement? He reached the top of Ax 3-Domaines first, he reached the top of Ventoux first, and with almost thirty kilometers of downhill racing leading into the final climb to catch any breakaways, I imagine Froome will reach the top of the Semnoz first as well, though I expect everything Contador and Quintana have to give on the way up.

    VeloHuman Favorites

    1. Chris Froome | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Alberto Contador

    Stage 21: Versailles > Paris | 133.5km | Flat

    An evening finish in Paris will be a lovely sight. The route showcases many of France’s biggest tourist attractions (Versailles and the Champs-Elysses cap off a Tour that has already visited Mont Saint-Michel and the Alps). After so many days struggling over mountains, Mark Cavendish will look to pick up his fifth win on the Champs-Elysses, but challengers are nipping at his heels. Marcel Kittel beat him in a pure sprint earlier this Tour, and Greipel will have his say as well. Sagan is not quite as fast in a drag race, but surely he, too, will direct his determination toward this finish. Despite his loss to Kittel in an earlier sprint this Tour, it’s hard to see past Cavendish yet, here where he has never been beaten, though either one of the German pair would not surprise me if they made it to the line first. Forced to choose, I’ll take Cavendish, but I’m far less confident that he will win the day than I am that Britain’s Chris Froome will be not far behind him, wearing yellow.

    VeloHuman Favorites

    1. Mark Cavendish | 2. Marcel Kittel | 3. Andre Greipel

    -Dane Cash

     Photos by Marianne Casamance and stintje.

  • Tour de France 2013 Day 15: Where We Stand After Fourteen Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 15-17

    Ventoux

    Day 15

    A flat stage, an ITT, two more flat stages, and a hilly stage, won respectively by: Marcel Kittel, Tony Martin, Marcel Kittel, Mark Cavendish, and a breakaway. A rather predictable week… Boring no? It was anything but boring. Cavendish got tangled up with Argos-Shimano’s Tom Veelers on stage 10, bringing the leadout man down behind a faster Kittel and Greipel, who fought for the finish line; the former won the day. In stage 11, Froome took another big chunk in the time trial, placing second to the time trialing world champ. Bauke Mollema had a fine day and Laurens Ten Dam was not nearly as bad as he might have been. A crash ended Andre Greipel’s hopes of winning stage 12, making it a showdown between Kittel and Cavendish. The German outsprinted Cav for his third win of the Tour. Stage 13 looked to be another mass sprint affair, until Alejandro Valverde stopped to take care of a mechanical and took a little too long trying to get back into the mix. A Belkin and Omega Pharma-Quick Step led peloton did not apply the brakes, and suddenly Valverde was minutes behind and fighting to catch back up; Movistar sent everyone but Nairo Quintana back to assist. Then, taking advantage of a cross tail wind, Saxo-Tinkoff jumped off the front of the already high-pace peloton, followed by the likes of Mollema, Ten Dam, Fuglsang, Sagan, and a few OPQS riders, including Cavendish. Froome watched as they sped off, and what started looking like a spirited attempt to liven up the race turned into a legitimate breakaway with serious firepower. Valverde suffered the most, unable to match the pace even with help from Kittel and Argos-Shimano and a number of other riders who had been dropped off the pace. The break stayed away and gapped Froome by a minute; Cavendish beat the green jersey to the line (though Sagan did seem relatively uninterested), but the biggest story was the end of Valverde’s GC hopes. Eventually he gave up the chase, and rolled across the line over nine minutes down, ceding the team’s yellow jersey hopes to the young Nairo Quintana. OPQS took another win in stage 14 when Matteo Trentin outsprinted his breakaway companions to the line, but all the GC riders took it easy, except for a once-contender who had suffered a major time loss in stage 9, Garmin-Sharp’s Andrew Talansky. He picked up roughly seven minutes in GC by finishing 3rd on the stage, with the break, rocketing back up to 12th place, right behind his teammate Dan Martin, again giving Garmin two top 10 hopefuls on the eve of the climb up Ventoux.

    Stage 15: Givors > Mont Ventoux | 242.5km | Summit Finish

    The iconic Mont Ventoux awaits, and Chris Froome’s many challengers will hope to use this stage as their launching point towards a yellow jersey that has gotten further away from them since the Tour left Corsica. I have to doubt their chances. Froome has aced every test so far, and while his team may have been battered in the past week, losing a pair of riders and dropping their total to seven, the leader looks strong as ever. His reduced team will need to be as good as possible though, with three Cat 4s and then a Cat 3 well before the climb to the summit of Ventoux even begins. Be ready to see a lot of attacks and attempted breakaways.

    Speaking of attacks, when Valverde fell off the back of the peloton yesterday and Costa went with him, Movistar lost a lot of GC-threatening-attack-clout. Quintana alone remainsin contention. Expect to see him right there with Froome until he decides to attack, hard. I think the young Colombian, who has shown that he is on form with repeated jumps ahead in service of Valverde earlier, could pose a challenge on Ventoux’s slopes, especially now that his team is more dedicated to his own plans—though I wouldn’t be surprised to see Alejandro Valverde strike out for his own stage-winning glory now that he isn’t seen as a threat for the overall. Obviously this stage looks great for Contador, but until he proves that he can keep up with the under-30 crowd that crested Ax 3 Domaines before him, I’ll withhold my stage-winning tip—though I think he’ll be up there well ahead of Joaquim Rodriguez, who didn’t inspire confidence in the Dauphine and hasn’t yet in the Tour; additionally, this sort of long steep climb favors other climbers a bit more.

    Jakob Fuglsang doesn’t have great team support, but I do think he is capable of hauling tail up this sort of climb. Similarly, I’m not sure how much support his stage 9 companion Dan Martin will have, what with Talansky spending all of today in the breakaway, though Martin has inspired confidence on his own so far this Tour. If he can hang on long enough, the brutal gradient at the top would be a great place for his Ardennes-winning skillset. And then of course, it is Bastille Day, and that will likely spur the French climbers into relentless attack mode. Pierre Rolland’s quest for the polka dots would really benefit from making it up Ventoux first, but I question his ability to stay away or to climb with the heavy hitters. I don’t think Voeckler has it in him either. John Gadret and Romain Bardet have shown good form so far and wouldn’t surprise me with an effort to attack up the mountain that the GC riders will likely ignore. A month ago, I might have tipped Thibaut Pinot, and this stage does not require him to descend down Ventoux after he climbs it, but he hasn’t done much to prove he’s capable this Tour. In short, as uninteresting as it may be, I can’t look past Froome until others step up in the mountains. Mollema and Quintana also both came into this Tour with strong 2013s backing their claims and have performed accordingly so far, but others need to act quickly if they want to prove that they have finally rounded into form.

    Stage Favorites

    1. Chris Froome | 2. Nairo Quintana

    Stage 16: Vaison-la-Romaine > Gap | 168km | Medium Mountains

    The road to Gap looks like a perfect day for a breakaway, with an early Cat 3 and then Cat 2 climb, and a late Cat 2 summit less than fifteen kilometers from the finish. If the GC guys are taking it easy heading into a very difficult time trial and then the double climb of Alpe D’Huez, it will be a good opportunity for enterprising types to jump into a break and stay away all day. Orica-GreenEdge has a knack for this sort of thing with a number of competitors capable of hanging with a break, namely, the Simons Gerrans or Clake. Clarke has said he is at the Tour to get into breaks, and he didn’t go with the jump on stage 14, so I have to think he might try here. Sylvain Chavanel, who took Stage 14 easy, might like this sort of stage as well. As we saw today, the transitional stages where the GC men aren’t paying much attention to the break can be very difficult to call, so suffice it to say that any strong non-GC rider with a talent for climbing and jumping quickly into a breakaway is going to see this as a good opportunity. And of course, you can never count out Peter Sagan.

    Stage Favorites

    1. Simon Clarke | 2. Sylvain Chavanel

    Stage 17: Embrun > Chorges | 32km | ITT

    A mountain time trial gives Chris Froome another excellent opportunity to pick up time on his closest rivals, though the parcours should certainly reduce the gaps between the Sky captain and his more climbing-oriented challengers. Contador may have lost a lot of time at Mont St. Michel, but he did have a strong day on a course that did not play to his skillset. I expect a good day from him here; I think he’ll lose time, but less than he did in Stage 11. I also expect a very good performance from Bauke Mollema, having taken third on a very recent mountain trial of only five fewer kilometers shorter in the Tour de Suisse, a result that nabbed him second overall in GC to the winner of both that day and that tour, Rui Costa. Movistar may hold Costa back this week, but he’s got the talent to put up a strong result on stage 17 (as usual, this team ambition vs. time trialing prowess question holds true for many riders in the role of domestique, including Costa’s teammates Andrey Amador and Jonathan Castroviejo, who may be taking it easy or may go full speed). The climbs will be much more to the liking of Movistar’s new leader than was the flat course on the coast, and I expect Quintana to do very well here. On the flip side, stage may be a bit too lumpy for Tony Martin’s liking. Michal Kwiatkowski has shown that he is not one to be doubted and while it’s a very techincal and vertically challenging time trial, I think he’ll make his mark.

    Stage Favorites

    1. Chris Froome | 2. Bauke Mollema | 3. Alberto Contador

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by akunamatata.

  • Tour de France 2013 Day 10: Where We Stand After Nine Stages, and Looking Ahead to Stages 10-14

    MontStMichel

    Day 10: Yellow Jersey Battle Shaping Up

    In very broad strokes, stages 8 and 9 were what we expected: a select group of riders gained major ground in stage 8, and nobody picked up much time in stage 9, though a few riders fell out of contention.

    But as far as how all that actually happened, and to what extent, the two days in the Pyrenees were quite surprising, and quite decisive for a number of riders. On the first day, Sky kept a impressive pace throughout the day, and didn’t panic when star riders like Nairo Quintana launched attacks on the slopes. The train just chugged along, dropping guys like Tejay van Garderen out of GC contention. Eventually, all attackers were reeled in, and on the final climb, Richie Porte put the hammer down like an Australian John Henry (sorry for all the railroad-oriented language) and laid waste to some big names. In the end, it was just Porte and Froome riding together with all other challengers in the rear view mirror, and then Froome swung out ahead of Porte and went off alone for the victory, with his captain riding in behind him some fifty seconds later. Valverde and Mollema came in next, over a minute down on Froome, and then Laurens Ten Dam and a surprising Mikel Nieve. Kreuziger, Contador, and Quintana were all 1:45 down on Froome, and Rodriguez, Costa, Martin, Talansky, and Fuglsang rolled in over two minutes behind the Sky leader. But things went well for these guys compared to Cadel Evans and Dani Moreno, who lost over four minutes, and Pinot and van Garderen, who found themselves out of contention for GC, six and twelve minutes back, respectively. A truly decisive day, and one from which yellow jersey favorites not named Chris Froome will have a lot of trouble recovering. Valverde mitigated his losses, but Contador and Rodriguez will have trouble taking back seconds, especially with a flat time trial coming up this week. To those wondering if Andy Shleck is finally back, he did manage to cross the line only three and a half minutes down.

    Stage 9 was a day filled with attacks, and the madness hit Sky hard. Peter Kennaugh crashed into undergrowth beside the road and left the team down an important domestique. When Garmin and Movistar started attacking like crazy on every ascent, Sky found themselves struggling to reel in the constant barrage from the likes of Ryder Hesjedal and Nairo Quintana. Richie Porte, who clearly had little left in the tank after so much energy expended the day prior, lost touch and Sky was unable to give him as much support as they might have wanted. He tried chasing, but was ultimately called off the endeavor, proving a crucial difference between last year’s Wiggins-Froome duo and this year’s Froome-Porte duo: Porte is 100% commited to Froome’s victory, and everything else is secondary. Porte was integral to Froome’s huge time gap the day before, and he paid for it in stage 9. Still, Chris Froome was unbroken by the constant attempted breakaways, and by the final Cat 1 climb, a select group of strong climbers was riding together with no one ahead of them. Then, Garmin’s Dan Martin jumped ahead and did what he does best, gunning uphill toward the summit. Jakob Fuglsang joined him, and together, they descended skillfully for thirty kilometers, holding onto a few tens of seconds of a lead. Martin outsprinted Fuglsang for the stage win. Still, in terms of GC, they finished with only twenty seconds of a gap between themselves and the Froome group, which included all of the big favorites (among them Cadel Evans and even Andy Schleck, who sits in a somewhat surprising 15th place)… except for Richie Porte, who came in around eighteen minutes down with broken-ribbed Ryder Hesjedal. With the second-in-command’s chance at the podium done, Sky may have to alter strategy somewhat now that Porte going off the front won’t scare anyone for GC.

    Stage 10: Saint-Gildas-des-Bois > Saint-Malo 197km Flat

    It’s a day for the sprinters, with a Cat 4 climb, but otherwise, not much to break up the pack. It looks like a perfect day for the big boys, Cavendish, Greipel, and Kittel. Hard to pick from among these guys. Greipel seems a solid choice for the leadout friendly finish.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Andre Greipel | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. Marcel Kittel

    Stage 11: Avranches > Mont-Saint-Michel | 33km | ITT

    An incredibly scenic time trial that will provide plenty of helicopter shots… It’s flat, but fortunately for Contador et al, it’s relatively short, meaning it will be difficult for Chris Froome to pick up too much time on his climbing-oriented rivals. Tony Martin seems to be recovered from his stage 1 crash, and if so, he’s the favorite to win the day, though Froome winning wouldn’t surprise anyone. If Tejay van Garderen has recovered from his curious case of being terrible, he should challenge for a top spot as well. Of the GC types, Contador and Valverde are both decent time trialists, and so are Kwiatkowsi and Fuglsang and of course Cadel Evans. Nairo Quintana has surprising ability for all his “climbing” specialist label. On the other hand, Joaquim Rodriguez, Daniel Martin, and Laurens Ten Dam will all be doing their best to keep their losses slight. Tipping a non-GC name in a Grand Tour time trial can be difficult, simply because some guys take it easy in order to rest for their domestique duties: Tanel Kangert seriously let the VeloHuman Procycling (fantasy) squad down in the Giro when he decided to use the stage 18 time trial as a recovery ride to best prepare to help Nibali in the mountains. I would imagine that Richie Porte would have an excellent day, but he has shown that he’s willing to put his own dreams aside for Froome. Edvald Boasson Hagen might dig this stage, too, it being a short TT, something he’s in which he is quite capable of performing. Sylvain Chavanel, Peter Velits, Svein Tuft, and Cameron Meyer are other guys who could place highly. My pick to surprise is Movistar’s Jonathan Castroviejo. He’s nowhere close in GC so who knows, but he has the ability to time trial with the best of them.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Tony Martin | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Peter Velits

    Watch Out For:

    Jonathan Castroviejo

    Stage 12: Fougères > Tours | 218km | Flat

    Another flat day, and I am running out of things to say about these sorts of stages. It’s a rather long stage, but there are only small bumps to keep things interesting. I’d imagine it’ll be the usual suspects at the finish line, and I’m hard-pressed to pick one over the other but more often than not I’d take Cavendish on a garden-variety flat stage.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Andre Greipel | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. Marcel Kittel

    Stage 13: Tours > Saint-Amand-Montrond | 173km | Flat

    There is a Cat 4 climb early, and then an uncategorized but surprisingly steep little hill only a few kilometers from the finish. Perhaps things will get interesting if Gilbert is sick of all the “when will he win?” talk and decides to attack on the climb? Probably not. It is likely that everyone makes it to the mass sprint, but I like Cavendish, Sagan, and Kristoff most here.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Mark Cavendish | 2. Peter Sagan | 3. Alexander Kristoff

    Stage 14: Saint-Pourçain-sur-Sioule > Lyon | 191km | Medium Mountains

    With seven categorized climbs (five Cat 4s and a pair of 3s), this stage might have breakaway written all over it if it weren’t for Peter Sagan and his pack of Cannondale supporters. As effectively as they handled stage 7, it’s hard to pick against them here, though even if they do manage to reel in any early breakaways, a pair of Cat 4s less than 20 km from the finish could be a springboard for the always hungry Sylvain Chavanel or Gilbert. If the pack finishes together minus the Greipel-types, Sagan seems the easy favorite, with Edvald Boasson Hagen and true all-rounder Michal Kwiatkowski (assuming he goes for it now that he is placed so highly in GC) as other possible contenders. It could be a good day for Orica-GreenEdge’s Simon Gerrans or Daryl Impey to jump ahead late, as well.

    Stage Favorites:

    1. Peter Sagan | 2. Edvald Boasson Hagen | 3. Michal Kwiatkowski

    Watch Out For:

    Daryl Impey, Simon Gerrans

    -Dane Cash

    Photo by schlaeger.