Tag: 2014

Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 17 Preview

Stage 17: Sarnonico > Vittorio Veneto – 208 km

The riders who managed to survive the brutal sixteenth stage that put Nairo Quintana into the pink jersey will have an easier day on Stage 17, but this one is tougher than it looks. 208 total kilometers with an undulating profile, the journey from Sarnonico to Vittorio Veneto could end in a sprint finale, but both early breakers and late attackers will also like their odds.

There are three categorized climbs (all Category 4) and a number of uncategorized bumps on the day. None of them are particularly long, but the Muro di Ca’ del Poggio, the third Cat 4, is quite a steep affair. Though short at 1.2 kilometers, it averages 12.2%. It is crested with 20 kilometers left on the stage. The climb is followed by a similarly steep descent. The finish is yet another tricky affair, with back-to-back sharp left-handers between the 750-m-to-go mark and the 450-m-to-go mark, before a straightaway opens up to the line.

With a rolling profile and a vicious late ascent, the sprinters’ teams will have their work cut out for them in trying to control the race. Constant ups and downs will benefit early escapees. Even if the day’s main break is caught, the final bump in the road could see attacks from the punchier riders in the peloton. However, after the debacle on Stage 13 (in which a total lack of organization among the sprinter squads allowed a breakaway to take the victory), the likes of Giant-Shimano, Cannondale, Trek, and FDJ should be motivated to drill a high pace and shut down the hopes of anyone hoping to win off the front. As with most rolling, breakaway-friendly stages, this one is extremely tough to call.

Even if the peloton does manage to reel in any attackers, it’s not a guarantee that all the familiar names will have survived the day’s challenges. Nacer Bouhanni is the big favorite for sprint finishes in this Giro, especially on another technical final few hundred meters, but he may not hung on through the difficult journey with the pack. Giacomo Nizzolo may have slightly better odds, as he has shown an ability to hang on through some tough days in his young career, but he’s still a question mark. The same is true for Luka Mezgec, who can at least rely on one of the most dedicated support squads to help him reach the finish in a good position. Cannondale’s Elia Viviani, as usual, is also a strong candidate for a sprint, if he survives. Garmin’s Tyler Farrar and Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari are other outsiders among the pure sprinters. Sky’s Ben Swift, now that his teammate Edvald Boasson Hagen and Orica-GreenEdge’s Michael Matthews are both out of the race, becomes a big favorite in the event of a reduced sprint. He’s climbing beautifully at the moment (he beat Franco Pellizotti to the top of the Val Martello climb by over two minutes) but he’s also quite fast. Bardiani-CSF’s Enrico Battaglin and Sonny Colbrelli, Garmin-Sharp’s Nathan Haas, and Giant-Shimano’s Simon Geschke also become much more attractive options if the bunch has been whittled down by the day’s climbing. It wouldn’t be a complete surprise to see Wilco Kelderman or Cadel Evans try to get involved if the group is small enough.

Riders like Cannondale’s Moreno Moser and Oscar Gatto, Neri Sottoli’s Simone Ponzi, Astana’s Enrico Gasparotto, and even Lampre’s Diego Ulissi and Katusha’s Daniel Moreno could try to enliven Stage 17 on the final climb.

It will be a vicious battle to get into the morning breakaway. Some of the tougher names listed above could try their luck; other riders who could be hoping to hang out front for a long one include Katusha’s Luca Paolini, Trek’s Fabio Felline, Bardiani-CSF’s Enrico Barbin and Edoardo Zardini (their squad really does have a wealth of options for the variety of potential scenarios on Stage 17), and Lotto Belisol’s Adam Hanson. It’s always a crapshoot predicting who will make it into the big move, but whoever does get into the morning break will be in a great position for the stage win, especially if the sprint trains fail to organize properly.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nacer Bouhanni | 2. Giacomo Nizzolo | 3. Ben Swift

The GC action will heat up again on Stage 18; keep an eye out for the preview a few hours after Stage 17. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

-Dane Cash

May 27, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 16 Preview

Stage 16: Ponte di Legno > Val Martello/Martelltal – 139 km

The peloton will be glad to have enjoyed a rest day before the brutal climbing challenge that awaits on Stage 16. Stage 15, which saw Fabio Aru take a victory and Nairo Quintana take some valuable time on GC, provided a great look at the uphill form of the big names in this race, but trips up the Passo Gavia, the Stelvio, and the Val Martello climbs could rewrite the script.

Unfortunately, snow in the high mountains has opened the door for the possibility of an alternate route that would skip the first two climbs and replace them with a different pair of ascents before the finale. Race organizers will assess the weather situation on the morning of the stage. At the moment, however, RCS Sport is planning to go ahead with the original route, so this preview is going ahead with it as well.

139 kilometers make this the second shortest non-TT stage in the Giro d’Italia, but that won’t be much consolation for the riders. Very few of those kilometers don’t involve grueling ascending or nervous descending. The peloton will enjoy about 5 downhill kilometers to start the day before they take on the Passo Gavia climb, 16.5 km at 8%. From Cat. 1 summit, it’s a technical and rough descent that runs to the foot of the Stelvio ascent, 21.7 kilometers at an average of 7.1%. The roads are narrow and it’s quite cold towards the top. Another tricky descent follows, before the road flattens out a bit with around 35 kilometers remaining. The final climb is an irregular 22.4 kilometer journey that averages 6.4%, but it includes various sections of 10% or more, including one just before the finish line.

This stage is a prime target for anyone hunting the King of the Mountains jersey. The top of the Stelvio, as the highest point in the Giro (the “Cima Coppi”), offers more KOM points than any other climb in the race. The Gavia and Val Martello climbs are both Category 1s. The competition to get up the road early will be fierce, as it will be difficult for any rider who misses out to take home the blue jersey. As leg-breaking as the first two climbs are, the final ascent will be an excellent opportunity for the GC men to attack each other, enough so that most of the big pink jersey contenders are probably planning to hold off on making moves until the road goes up for a final time. This means that the breakaway, already likely to be made up of some very talented climbers, will have a great shot of staying away.

As with most breakaway-friendly stages, naming favorites it’s quite difficult, but Julian Arredondo stands out as one of the likely protagonists to make things interesting. He went far too early on the Montecampione climb on Stage 15 and cracked, but he’s had a day off to recover some strength and he knows how important this one is. Given the likelihood of breakaway success, Arredondo is a great bet to take the stage from an early move, assuming he doesn’t go too deep trying to pick up points in the first two climbs. If he is there in the final, he’ll have a number of opportunities on the irregular slopes to launch an attack.

Colombia’s Fabio Duarte nabbed 2nd on Stage 15 among the very best climbers in this race. Unlike Arredondo, Duarte does not seem focused on the blue jersey, meaning that he won’t need to expend too much energy trying to be the first to the top of the Gavia or Stelvio climbs. He’s far enough down on GC to be allowed off the front and he’s on elite form at the moment, making him a great candidate for success here. If Duarte is on the front towards the end of the day, he’ll be a really difficult guy to catch on the final climb. Another option for Colombia is Duarte’s teammate Jarlinson Pantano, who came pretty close to victory from the breakaway on Stage 14 and could look to try again after recharging his batteries.

Katusha’s Daniel Moreno stuck with the GC contenders on Stage 15 and finished 8th on the day. No longer a threat for the maglia rosa, Moreno could try to go for a long one, and he’s obviously in top shape. Katusha came into this race with such high hopes, and Moreno is their best bet to make something happen.

Other strong options to go long include Sky’s Dario Cataldo and Sebastian Henao, Bardiani-CSF’s Stefano Pirazzi, Lampre’s Przemyslaw Niemiec and Diego Ulissi, Neri Sottoli’s Yonathan Monsalve, Astana’s Mikel Landa, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s Nicolas Roche.

If the peloton decides to keep the gaps manageable over the first two ascents, it will be tough for a breakaway to survive all the way up the brutal final climb. Should the GC contenders end up fighting it out for stage honors, Nairo Quintana has to be the favorite. He has shown in the last two stages that he’s recovered from the health issues that plagued the beginning of his bid for Giro glory, and he’s had another rest day since then just in case he wasn’t all the way back to full strength. With two long mountain slogs to wear out the legs in the first half of the stage and a third with plenty of excellent launching pads for attacks to close things out, Stage 16 suits Quintana’s skillset perfectly. He needs to claw back time on his GC rivals, and this is an excellent opportunity that he won’t likely pass up. I wouldn’t necessarily bet on him over the field, given the likelihood of breakaway success, but he’s certainly the single favorite rider to take the day.

Astana’s Fabio Aru delivered a beautiful victory on the Plan di Montecampione on Sunday. He made a decisive move to get away from the pack of GC contenders and stayed full throttle all the way up, putting his raw talent and his top-shelf form on full display. We’re into the third week of the race now and he has yet to show signs of slowing down. With teammates like Michele Scarponi and Mikel Landa, he has a great shot at continuing his successful Giro, though the seemingly endless climbing of Stage 16 will really put him to the test.

Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is climbing quite impressively in this race. Far enough back on GC that the big names are giving him breathing room to attack, he has gone on the move at nearly every opportunity so far, and clawed back some of the time that he lost early on the Giro. With the form he has displayed constantly jumping out ahead of his GC rivals, Pierre Rolland should have another strong performance in the cards. Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal has not been as successful, but he’s looked decent so far and could also see success if allowed to get out front.

Gaining time on almost all of his rivals (other than Quintana and Aru) on Stage 15, Rigoberto Uran made a strong statement that his Stage 14 may have been more the result of a bad day than a loss of climbing form. OPQS (with Wout Poels leading the way) has supported him well on the tough mountain days. He’s more focused on marking his GC rivals than jumping ahead for stage honors, but with his explosive uphill ability he could have a shot if things hold together until the end of the last climb.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka has a great resume on the very hard days in the mountains and could look to make something happen here. He was one of the strongest GC riders on Stage 15 and Stage 16 could be even better for the climbing star. AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo has not quite lived up to expectations in the past few stages but a true climber’s test with plenty of opportunities to attack should suit him. BMC’s Cadel Evans won’t love the constant changes of pace that his rivals are likely to force on these irregular slopes, but he could respond to moves more effectively after a rest day. Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman has hung with the best so far, but he has another brutal test waiting for him here.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Fabio Duarte | 3. Julian Arredondo

Keep an eye out for news of a possible route change in Stage 16, but even in the event of alterations, it’s still likely to be a day with big GC implications. The Stage 17 preview will be up a few hours after the Stage 16 finish. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

-Dane Cash

May 26, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 15 Preview

Stage 15: Valdengo > Plan di Montecampione – 225 km

There were no huge time gaps among the main GC contenders on a Stage 14 that went to a breakaway, but we learned a lot on the first really hard climbs of this race about who is on top form. Nairo Quintana seems to have overcome the various ailments that have troubled him through the first two weeks of the Giro d’Italia. His rivals have their work cut out for him as the road continues to go up in the next few days.

At 225 total kilometers, Stage 15 is one of the longest in the race, but the first 205.7 kilometers are quite flat. The real action will be reserved for the end of the day, when the road heads skyward. The Category 1 Plan di Montecampione is a leg-breaker, 19.4 kilometers at 7.6%. The first 11 km are pretty steady at around 8%, and then there is a brief respite in the 3% to 4% range before a finale of roughly 5 kilometers at gradients nearing 9%.

A breakaway victory is again possible, but with a rest day to follow and a lot on the line, the big guns should be out to play on the slopes. Wide roads and a mostly flat run-in to the final climb won’t offer much advantage to early attackers either.

It took two weeks, but Nairo Quintana finally showed his hand in Stage 14. He appears to be back at full strength, and on this long, steep final climb, he’s the big favorite now that he looks recovered from his crash and the sickness that followed. Movistar’s mountain goats also showed their mettle on Stage 14 and they’ll be able to put Quintana in a great place to take on this final ascent.

AG2R was another particularly impressive squad on the road to Oropa, especially given their cast of domestiques with names less recognizable than Eros Capecchi or Igor Anton. Domenico Pozzovivo ensured that their work was put to good use, picking up a few seconds on some of his GC rivals when he attacked with Nairo Quintana and managed to maintain a gap over at least a few of the riders behind. Stage 15 is another golden opportunity for the aggressive Italian and his dedicated French team to make their mark, and I expect Pozzovivo to be one of the strongest GC contenders on this climb.

Pink jersey wearer Rigoberto Uran did not look comfortable trying to match the moves of Quintana and Pozzovivo on Stage 14 and he lost some time, possibly a sign that the excellent time trialing ability he has developed may have come at the expense up some of his trademark uphill talent. With over 19 kilometers of sustained climbing to close out Stage 15, Uran could be in trouble. Still, it’s possible that he’s just had one bad day, and I’m not ready to completely downgrade my opinion of Uran just yet. Another day or two in the mountains will offer more clarity.

Cadel Evans looked to be struggling on Stage 14 as well. He didn’t lose a huge chunk of seconds, but the Plan di Montecampione climb is much longer, and it’s steeper. He has had good support so far, but I’m not sure how well BMC will be able to stick with their leader on the really difficult climbs of this final week. Evans still has a nice buffer to most of his rivals on GC (other than Uran), but I expect him to start losing time on these high gradients.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka should be pretty excited about this profile and what’s to come. He’s sitting 3rd at the moment, he’s climbing wonderfully, and he has a good team around him. Nicolas Roche took to the break on Stage 14, but he’ll be a very valuable domestique when called upon, as will Michael Rogers. In last year’s Giro, Majka showed on the Altopiano del Montasio and the Galiber that he can turn a good rhythm on even the very long climbs, so this finish should suit him.

Astana’s Fabio Aru continues to impress me. He actually finished just ahead of Pozzovivo on Stage 14. I keep waiting for him to show signs of weakness as we get deeper and deeper into the Giro d’Italia, but he has not faltered yet, and could be in for continued success on this stage for the pure climbers. Wilco Kelderman also continues to impress me, but this will be a real test. It’s a very long way to the Montecampione finish, and Kelderman doesn’t have a cast of supporters well-suited to the slopes. He’s proven that he deserves to be among the very biggest names in this race so far, but he’ll have his work cut out for him.

Europcar’s Pierre Rolland will be coming off a very hard effort, and it would be difficult enough when fully rested to match the big favorites on this long slog. Ryder Hesjedal certainly looks to have found some of his old form, but this will be a major challenge after a long day.

Trek’s Julian Arredondo did not make the Stage 14 breakaway, opening the door for Tim Wellens to pick up a lot of KOM points. There’s a big stash of points on offer at the Stage 15 finish, so I think it’s pretty likely that Arredondo will be very active in defense of his blue jersey, and as a non-threat to GC, he’ll probably be given freedom to go for a long one. Diego Ulissi is another explosive climber who doesn’t pose a big GC threat, but it’d be pretty surprising to see him survive this extended uphill journey unless he manages to do it from a long-distance move.

Speaking of long distance, more candidates for breakaway success (and outside candidates for success if they wait until the big climb) include Katusha’s Daniel Moreno and Colombia’s Fabio Duarte, neither of whom went particularly deep on Stage 14, Astana’s Mikel Landa, Androni’s Diego Rosa and Franco Pellizotti, and Bardiani’s Francesco Bongiorno. Also watch out for Sky’s Sebastian Henao, who has been climbing very well so far and who does not have any teammates with GC aspirations to look after now that Sky’s last hope for the overall, Kanstantsin Siutsou, has abandoned.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Domenico Pozzovivo | 3. Julian Arredondo

The peloton gets to enjoy a rest day after Stage 15, so check back on Monday for the preview of Tuesday’s Stage 16. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

May 24, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 14 Preview

Stage 14: Aglie > Oropa – 164 km

There have been a few hills along the Giro route so far, several major crashes with GC implications, and a crucial individual time trial, but organizers waited until the fourteenth stage of the race to challenge the maglia rosa hunters with serious climbs. The GC men enjoyed a relatively easy day in the saddle on Stage 13 (a short, flat stage that somehow went to a breakaway thanks to a lack of cooperation among the sprinters’ teams), and they should be charged and ready for action.

Stage 14 is not a particularly long one but it involves a lot of uphill mileage. After some early bumps, the peloton will reach the foot of Category 1 Alpe Noveis a little over 85 kilometers in. It’s a tough ascent, averaging 7.9% over 9 kilometers but with a nasty midsection that jumps up over 11% for about 4 km. It’s followed by a very fast descent that runs right into the bottom of the Bielmonte climb, a long Cat. 2 that averages 5.6% for 18.4 kilometers. It may be a bit too far from the finish for much GC action, but it will certainly wear down the legs. Another long descent leads to the town of Biella and the foot of the final ascent to the Oropa Sanctuary, a Category 1 11.8 kilometer climb that averages 6.2%.

With so many ups and downs, a finish that is steep but not so steep as to guarantee huge gaps, and many difficult days to come, Stage 14 could see a non-GC threat ride away for victory. Trek’s Julian Arredondo has established himself as one of the strongest climbers in the race, and he’s gunning for mountain points. The final climb has a few high-gradient sections that will allow him to attack from whatever group he is in. One potential obstacle for Arredondo will be the fast descending required over much of the stage; the tiny climber isn’t known for his descending skills. Tinkoff-Saxo’s Nicolas Roche, who showed an interest in a breakaway victory on Stage 11, and Michael Rogers, who showed off his descending skills on the way to a win that day, Astana’s Mikel Landa, Androni Giocattoli-Venezuela’s Diego Rosa, Colombia’s Fabio Duarte and Robinson Chalapud, Bardiani-CSF’s Stefano Pirazzi and Francesco Bongiorno, and Katusha’s Daniel Moreno are other potential protagonists who could be allowed up the road, in an early break or with a late move. Fair warning: these same names will likely be a common theme in the “if a breakaway takes it” sections of the next several mountain stage previews!

We’ve been waiting for GC contenders to actually show an interest in lighting up the race, and a few names stand out as potential aggressors on Stage 14. The time trials and various mishaps have already opened significant time gaps on the leaderboard, which could incite the kinds of all-out attacks and high speed chases from the bunch that will cut into the chances of the breakers. AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo is a favorite. He’s aggressive, his team is willing to work very hard on the slopes for him, and he looks strong right now: for a non-specialist in the time trial, he put in a fine performance in the ITT, which suggests that he is in great shape. He has the strongest balance of ability, form, and motivation to shoot upward on the final climb, and that combination could be enough to overcome even a strong breakaway group for stage honors. Pink jersey wearer Rigoberto Uran certainly has the ability and form, but now that he’s in the driver’s seat, he may let others do the attacking. Still, everyone is eyeing Nairo Quintana and waiting for him to make a move, and Uran could see an opportunity to try to widen the gap so that it is an even taller order for his Colombian rival if/when the Movistar leader recovers from his various ailments.

And what of Quintana? Were his health not in question, he’d be in my Top 3 favorites for the day. Unfortunately, just as he was recovering from his Stage 6 crash he fell sick. He did not appear to be at full strength in the ITT. He may have returned to 100% by now, but he’ll have to prove that he’s firing on all cylinders before I start predicting victory here.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Rafal Majka should do very well on Stage 14. He was very impressive in the chrono and he’s got some punch to make a move. The young Pole already has a Giro d’Italia Top 10 on his resume: now, he wants more, and he’s setting his sights on the podium. Astana’s Fabio Aru currently sits 7th on GC, and he’s now in a leadership role for a strong squad. Repeated days in the high mountains may start to wear on him next week, but for now I like his odds.

Trek’s Robert Kiserlovksi is an outsider I see with real potential. He’s been stellar on the climbs this year even against top competition. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland will almost certainly try something on one of the steeper sections of the road to Oropa. Diego Ulissi of Lampre lost a lot of ground on GC thanks to a Stage 11 crash, but his ITT performance kept him on the fringes of the overall leaderboard, meaning that he will be likely remain a marked man. Still, he’s a decent bet at this point in the race. Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman will hope to prove that he can hack it as the Giro starts to enter some very tough days, and BMC’s Cadel Evans will hope to take advantage of his strong team support and possibly try to take back time now that Uran has grabbed the overall lead. The next few days should provide some insight into just how well he is climbing.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Domenico Pozzovivo | 2. Julian Arredondo | 3. Rigoberto Uran

The Stage 15 preview will be up a few hours after the conclusion of Stage 14. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

-Dane Cash

May 23, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 13 Preview

Stage 13: Fossano > Rivarolo Canavese – 157 km

The Stage 12 ITT was a decisive one for the GC men. It rained heavily early on the day, but things dried out considerably for the later starters, throwing yet another variable into an already wide open stage. Climbing star Diego Ulissi even had the lead for a while (out of nowhere, I think it’s safe to say), until Rigoberto Uran put in a stellar performance to take the victory. Now, the GC riders get to enjoy a day that isn’t likely to have any GC implications. There are some minor bumps along the 157 kilometer journey from Fossano to Rivarolo Canavese, but with a flat finish and some very tough mountain days ahead, Stage 13 will be an enticing prize for the sprinters’ teams.

The small rollers shouldn’t trouble the fast men much, but as usual, the organizers have designed another difficult run-in, with some late twists and turns. Things actually go uphill a bit from about the 1-km-to-go mark to the 500-m-to-go mark before leveling out towards the line. A sharp right-hander awaits with 250 meters to go, and then the finishing straight is a little over 200 meters long.

Nacer Bouhanni delivered a third stage win in the last Giro bunch sprint, and until his rivals show that they can position themselves and time their jumps more successfully on these very technical run-ins to the line, Bouhanni remains the favorite. In every sprint preview I feel the need to point out that I don’t think Bouhanni is necessarily faster than his opponents; he’s a wily bike rider who gets into perfect position and uses his elite acceleration to carry him past the other sprinters on the road. I continue to believe that the gap between Bouhanni and the rest of the field is smaller than it looks, but no one else seems capable of closing it at the moment, making him the favorite.

Giacomo Nizzolo appears to have the best chance for taking the win from the points leader. He’s been 2nd on all three stages that Bouhanni has taken. Each time, he’s put in a great turn of speed, but he tends to mistime his move. In Stage 10, he hit the wind way too early and Bouhanni simply jumped on his wheel and then swung out in the closing meters for the victory. Perhaps Nizzolo will get it right some time during this race, though he hasn’t seemed to figure it out just yet.

A crash ruined Elia Viviani‘s chances on Stage 10, and he’s significantly further down in the red jersey competition than he thought he’d be at this point. He’s motivated to put in a better performance this time around, but these technical finishes do not treat Viviani or his leadout kindly. He also seems to be just a bit slower than he was earlier in the season. Still, rain, crashes, and some very physical jostling for position have kept him from getting to top speed in the last few sprint stages, so I am not counting him out.

Giant-Shimano has been providing Luka Mezgec with strong leadout support in the absence of Marcel Kittel. Mezgec doesn’t have the top-end speed to match the very best, but with this sort of help from his team, he can win anyway. Bouhanni’s domination may make these flat stages look predictable, but I don’t think GSH has been very far off the mark getting Mezgec perfectly placed to take the win, and Stage 13 could be their moment.

Barring a crash, Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari will almost certainly be in the Top 10. He’s been amazingly consistent in this Giro. Actually winning the stage will be a big ask, but he’s an aggressive rider who fights very hard (sometimes a little too hard) for positioning and that makes him a contender.

Sky’s Ben Swift has been hampered by injury in the past few sprints but he should be coming back into shape now. Edvald Boasson Hagen will play his standard role of star lieutenant. Garmin’s Tyler Farrar will hope to prove that he can stay upright through the twists and turns. With Nicola Ruffoni out of the race for Bardiani, Enrico Battaglin and Sonny Colbrelli will hope to pick up the slack. Androni Giocatolli’s Manuel Belletti and Omega Pharma’s Alessandro Petacchi could also feature.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nacer Bouhanni | 2. Giacomo Nizzolo | 3. Luka Mezgec

Keep an eye out for the Stage 14 preview after the Stage 13 comes to a close. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

-Dane Cash

May 22, 2014
Giro d’Italia 2014: Stage 12 Preview

Stage 12 (ITT): Barbaresco > Barolo – 41.9 km

Though the early breakaway of Stage 11 was ultimately reeled in on the final climb, most of the GC contenders did not make much of an effort trying to make the finale interesting (Michael Rogers of Tinkoff-Saxo attacked off the front of the pack on the descent and stayed away for the stage victory while the rest of the reduced bunch arrived together). The upcoming individual time trial, likely to have a major impact on the General Classification, is probably to blame for the maglia rosa hunters’ lack of interest in wasting too much energy on Stage 11.

The Stage 12 profile kicks off with a gentle uphill into the Cat. 4 Boscasso climb, a 3.1 kilometer, 5% average grade ascent. The early bump is followed by a tricky descent (and it could be made trickier by rainy weather), a flat section, and then a short climb, a quick descent, and another short climb to the finish. It’s a medium length chrono at 41.9 km, and it’s got a few rollers that will give the climbers at least a tiny bit of solace, but this looks like a test for the ITT specialists. Bike handling skills will be a major plus.

Many of the familiar time trialing talents are not on the Giro startlist (Tony Martin, Fabian Cancellara, and Bradley Wiggins are all absent), but until Stage 11, Movistar’s Adriano Malori seemed set to take on this contest as the big favorite. With back-to-back World Championship ITT Top 10s and his first WorldTour-level victory at Tirreno-Adriatico this year, Malori has jumped into the top echelon of chrono specialists in the sport. Unfortunately, he hit the deck very hard on the road to Savona and got pretty scraped up. That makes it very hard to say how he’ll perform in this time trial. On ability and a lack of other likely candidates, he’ll still be the favorite, but he’ll have a reasonable excuse to take this one easy if he isn’t feeling up to it.

Behind Malori are several other specialists who are targeting this victory. Malori’s teammate Jonathan Castroviejo will hope to pick up the slack for Movistar. 2014 results have been a mixed bag for him but he has the talent for potential success. Thomas de Gendt of OPQS came in a surprise 3rd behind Froome and Martin in the first ITT of last year’s Tour de France, reminding everyone just how good he can be on his day (though he has a reputation for inconsistency). In the absence of many of the bigger names in the discipline, De Gendt looks like a strong bet. Team Sky sent a squad full of chrono specialists to this race and they’ll hope to come away with some success. Dario Cataldo and Kanstantsin Siutsou have had a lot of success against the clock in their careers. Edvald Boasson Hagen was unable to make much of a dent in Stage 11 despite being tipped by a number of prognosticators as a potential protagonist, but his soloing skills are top-notch and he may decide to give this one a go. It will be interesting to see whether he takes a shot at the day: he’s won WorldTour level ITTs in the past, but in recent Grand Tour chrono stages he has not seemed interested in contending. Orica-GreenEdge has lost a number of its time trialists since the start of this race, but Australian national champ Michael Hepburn and longtime specialist Svein Tuft could deliver decent results. Trek’s Riccardo Zoidl is an up-and-coming talent in the ITT. At just 23, Giant-Shimano’s Tobias Ludviggson could surprise some people. Tinkoff-Saxo’s Michael Rogers went deep to pull off the victory in Stage 11, but he’s got a very strong ITT and may look for more success in a more open field than is normal for a Grand Tour time trial.

Among the General Classification riders are a few who stand out above the rest, and who will look to gain significant time on their less chrono-inclined rivals. A handful may even challenge for stage supremacy. BMC’s Cadel Evans is the big name at the top. He’s already got a significant time advantage in this race, and as a strong rider against the clock, he should put in a very good ride here. As a note, he was only decent in the Pais Vasco time trial earlier this year, so there is a bit of a question as to whether he’s still at the same top level he once was in this discipline. Strong descending skills will help. Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman is another GC name who counts time trialing among his strengths, and who also happens to look very sharp right now. Omega Pharma’s Rigoberto Uran has steadily improved as a time trialist over the past few years, and he showed off some top-notch form against the clock in the ITT at the recent Tour de Romandie. Continued success should be on the menu here. AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo is a very interesting case: he is well-known for his climbing prowess, but time trialing was never really one of his strong suits, at least not until the 2013 Vuelta, in which he shocked everyone when he landed 3rd behind Cancellara and Martin in the Stage 11 time trial. This will be a good opportunity to find out whether he really has taken his time trialing up a notch. Lotto Belisol’s Maxime Monfort is currently 13th on GC and a definite outsider, but I do expect him to pick up some time on his rivals here. Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal sits 15th overall, and he’ll be an intriguing rider to watch: he’s delivered a few strong time trialing performances in the past and he seems to have regained some of his old form this year, but this will be a real test.

Astana’s Fabio Aru, Trek’s Robert Kiserlovski, and Europcar’s Pierre Rolland may find themselves struggling to limit their losses. It’s hard to predict the performance of Movistar’s Nairo Quintana; he’s not known for being great against the clock, but he has put in some terrific time trials even on flatter parcours in his young career, 2nd to Tony Martin himself in the decisive ITT of the 2013 Vuelta al Pais Vasco. However, he rolled in three and a half minutes down on the first time trial of the 2013 Tour de France when a lot was on the line. He’ll be motivated to make this one of his better days, but he appears to still be suffering from his crash. I think he will turn in a decent performance, but I do expect him to lose some time.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Adriano Malori | 2. Thomas de Gendt | 3. Cadel Evans

The Stage 13 preview will be up a few hours after the final rider crosses the line on Stage 12. In case you missed it, the overall Giro d’Italia preview can be found here. Also, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race.

-Dane Cash

May 21, 2014