Tag: 2014

Breakout Riders of 2014: A Look at the Rising Stars Who Made the Season’s Most Emphatic Statements

The cold-weather months may be light on road racing, but they do provide an excellent opportunity to take stock of the big performances of the past season with an eye for future potential. Looking at the big picture of races from January all the way up to October, we can get a pretty good idea of the riders that made the most emphatic arrivals this season, and also of those already-known up-and-comers who took clear steps forward into the spotlight with high-visibility results. This sort of prospective retrospective is always nice to have in the middle of the following season, as a barometer of which rising stars are on track in their progression, and which have fallen short of expectations.

It’s hard to see anyone other than Fabio Aru as the year’s most emphatic arrival. He had been touted as Italian cycling’s next big thing for some time (in last season’s post-year retrospective, I named him as a likely break-out candidate), but he’d never even been on the podium in a WorldTour race before this year. Hard to believe, given that he’s now a three-time Grand Tour stage winner and two-time Grand Tour Top 5 finisher at age 24. A pure climber with an aggressive streak, Aru has the right combination of talent, racing acumen, and guile to pick up victories with bold long-range strikes on the sport’s most challenging slopes. The long, flat time trials are a major weakness in his game, but as chrono-light routes become more and more en vogue, Aru should continue to thrive in the Grand Tours. Interestingly, he doesn’t have much in the way of one-week stage race results to his name, but his skillset would seem well-suited to those too. In short, Aru should be primed for plenty more success as he continues to develop, and continue to develop he will: he doesn’t turn 25 until after the 2015 Giro. Teammate Vincenzo Nibali may have gotten the lion’s share of Astana publicity this season (and his Tour de France victory certainly represents a worthy career progression), but Aru really took a quantum leap forward in his two Grand Tour appearances.

Where Aru made his arrival the in three-weekers, newly crowned World Champ Michal Kwiatkowski made his statements in the one-day and one-week races, racking up a slew of stellar performances in the early part of the season (winning in Strade Bianche and putting in big rides in Pais Vasco, the Ardennes, and the prologue of the Tour de Romandie, his first WorldTour victory) and then coming back with a vengeance in September, winning a stage in the Tour of Britain en route to 2nd overall and then, of course, taking the rainbow jersey in Ponferrada. It’s more of a giant step-up than an arrival, as Kwiatkowski did flash serious ability in 2013, but he turned Top 10s into podiums and victories this year. For all-around talent, Kwiatkowski rivals Alejandro Valverde in versatility. Pais Vasco was an early expression of that versatility for the young Pole: he was 2nd to Alberto Contador on the General Classification thanks to his climbing legs and his stellar ITT, but he also won the Points Jersey after being in the Top 3 in five of the six stages of the race. After narrowly missing out on the Top 10 in last year’s Tour de France, Kwiatkowski’s ride from Leeds to Paris this season was a bit of a disappointment, but it may be that Kwiatkowski just isn’t a Grand Tour GC contender at this point in his career, and with the way he has performed in the shorter races, that may be okay with him given his ability to contest all manner of one-day and one-week events.

Giant-Shimano’s Tom Dumoulin was another 1990-born all-round talent to take several steps forward this season. Dumoulin, like Kwiatkowsi, showed promise with several big rides in 2013, but he took his game to a new level in 2014, racking up a few time trial victories in big races (including the Eneco Tour) and taking third in the ITT World Champs, and also delivering several strong road race performances. Wins eluded him, but he came very close in the Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec, passed by Simon Gerrans just a few meters before the line. He also climbed well enough to hold onto 5th overall in the Tour de Suisse after getting into good position on GC early in that race with strong chrono rides. His time trial has been his biggest strength throughout his young career, but he made significant strides on the hills and at the finish line this season, and looks primed for big things on all sorts of profiles in 2015.

Alexander Kristoff has enjoyed a textbook progression over the last few years, steadily earning more and more success as he has carved out a niche on the road; in last season’s post-year impressions piece, I said that he had “established himself as a serious contender for hardman sprinter’s races going forward.” He delivered on that promise this season, winning a Monument Classic and two Tour de France stages and picking up plenty of other big results on the way. John Degenkolb, another hardman sprinter (who should challenge Kristoff on the tougher profiles for years to come), took a major leap forward this season as well. The German announced himself with five Vuelta stage wins in 2012 and had a strong 2013, but his victory in Gent-Wevelgem this spring, along with a runner-up ride at Paris-Roubaix, another collection of stage wins at the Vuelta, and several other major successes cemented his position as an elite rider on the tougher sprinters’ days. The emergence of Kristoff and Degenkolb will be a major challenge for Peter Sagan to overcome in the sprinter-friendly classics moving forward.

Stepping away from WorldTour teams, the Europe Tour provided a down-to-the-wire battle for overall supremacy between two of the year’s biggest arrivals: Topsport Vlaanderen’s Tom van Asbroeck and Bardiani – CSF’s Sonny Colbrelli. Both riders put in impressive performances at major WorldTour events early in the season (van Asbroeck in Gent-Wevelgem and Colbrelli in Milano-Sanremo), and top result after top result in the bigger Europe Tour races on the year.

WorldTour-level action was limited for both of them, but the talent (and top-end speed) is there: Van Asbroeck has a bright future in the classics, especially those where fast finishes are likely, while Colbrelli looks well-suited for bumpier sprinter-friendly days. Van Asbroeck should have plenty of opportunities to go up against prime competition next year, having signed a two-year contract with Belkin, who will appreciate his addition to their classics squad with the departure of Lars Boom. Colbrelli will stay with Bardiani – CSF, but he should continue to have chances to shine in MSR and the Giro, among other races.

23-year-old Tim Wellens has been with Lotto Belisol since 2012, but something clicked for him this season. The Giro offered the first hints of an impressive puncheur’s engine lurking under the hood; Wellens was active in long-range moves in Italy and came close to victory on multiple occasions, though a pair of 2nd places was all he had to show for his efforts. However, he didn’t have to wait too long to make good on that promise. Sitting 16th overall and 49 seconds down on GC, Tim Wellens struck out for glory from afar on Stage 6 of the Eneco Tour and held on for a decisive stage win and, ultimately, the time gap necessary to secure overall victory. He again put those punchy legs on display with a Top 10 in Plouay, and a 4th place finish in Il Lombardia among very impressive company. Lotto Belisol will be able to mount a potent two-pronged attack with Wellens and Jelle Vanendert in next year’s Ardennes and other hilly classics.

Orica-GreenEdge was able to enjoy the highly visible arrivals of multiple squad members. The Australian outfit knew that they were getting a wealth of talent when they signed the Yates twins, and both showed ability this season, with Adam Yates in particular having a breakout year. The 22-year-old took a stage and the overall victory in the Tour of Turkey and kept the foot on the gas for his next several starts, landing 5th in the Tour of California and 6th in a hotly contested Criterium du Dauphine (ahead of Tour winner Vincenzo Nibali). He won Italy’s GP Industria & Artigianato and was in prime position in a leading group of five in the final kilometers of the Clasica de San Sebastian before a crash took him out of contention. With explosive climbing legs and a willingness to take chances, Yates had plenty of success in 2014 and looks ready for more in 2015. OGE saw yet another major breakout season with Johan Esteban Chaves, a pure climbing talent with an affinity for the tough mountains.

Chaves had a promising 2012 but his 2013 was derailed by an early-season crash that left him with a number of serious injuries (including a fractured collarbone and cheekbone). He got back on track in style this year, climbing to stage wins in the Tour of California and 3rd overall in the Tour of Beijing. He likely still needs to get some mileage as a WorldTour pro before he can put in a challenge in the Grand Tours, but he’s ready to contend in the one-week races right now. Suddenly Orica-GreenEdge has multiple options in the mountains.

French cycling enjoyed a renaissance year, and Romain Bardet‘s emergence as a top-level threat was a big part of that. After a strong 2013, his progression wasn’t necessarily unexpected, but a nation of cycling fans was pleased to see him deliver on his early promise. His impressive climbing legs took him to 6th overall in the Tour (he was a flat tire in the final ITT away from 5th), and he also displayed a surprising knack for one-day success, landing in the Top 10 in Liege-Bastogne-Liege and the GP Montreal. He has a surprising kick and should make waves in the shorter climber-friendly races as he continues to develop for the Grand Tours.

Cannondale may be going through a merger/takeover, but the final year of the team as we know it saw a few impressive stage racing performances from rising stars. Neo-pro Davide Formolo, just 22, climbed to 4th in the Tour of Turkey and then a month later, against several top GC-style riders nearing their Tour de France peak form, he finished 7th overall in the Tour de Suisse. He strung together a nice collection of results in smaller one-day races as well. He should continue to develop with the new Garmin-Cannondale squad. Meanwhile, another Italian talent wearing Cannondale green took major strides forward in the Vuelta. Damiano Caruso had never been in the Top 10 in the General Classification of a WorldTour race until this season, but he picked up his first WT Top 10 in style at the Vuelta a España, where he consistently hung with the best climbers in the bunch most of the way up that race’s toughest mountains. BMC, running a bit low on GC guys as Cadel Evans retires and Samuel Sanchez nears the end of his career, will be glad to have the infusion of talent as he joins them for 2015.

Speaking of BMC, Silvan Dillier put together a nice season, picking up results in a wide variety of races and contributing to his squad’s World Championship TTT ride as well. He thrives during hard days in the saddle and has a fast finish to boot. The same could be said (and more emphatically) of the skillset of Garmin-Sharp’s Ramunas Navardauskas. He picked up an impressive win with a late attack in the Tour de France, and he was 3rd in Quebec and 4th in Montreal. He’s always been an aggressive rider with a knack for getting clear on the harder profiles, but an improved finishing kick allowed him to contest a number of sprint finishes this year. He’s now won two Grand Tour stages, and at age 26, he’s just hitting his prime.

Michael Valgren of Tinkoff-Saxo gets the final mention. The 22-year-old has been a high-profile prospect for some time after delivering several big results in U23 and national events, but this season he sailed to a convincing victory in the Post Danmark Rundt and put in several other strong rides in big races. He was a visible figure at the Worlds Road Race, taking several shots from afar. He has a wide array of talents and a lot of raw power in the tank, and at just 22, he should be on track to land plenty more big results in 2015.

This is, of course, not an exhaustive list, but hopefully it makes for a useful catalog of the year’s biggest arrivals and most improved up-and-comers. For many of them, breakout success will lead to more focused scrutiny in 2015, which should offer plenty of interesting storylines for the upcoming season as these young rising talents try to cope with pressure to perform. To face that challenge, they will hope to get in as much recovery this offseason as possible, but January and the start of the WorldTour in Australia get closer every day.

-Dane Cash

Photos by Alberto Brevers and moz278.

October 28, 2014
Riding into the Offseason

The conclusion of the Tour of Beijing was also the conclusion of the 2014 WorldTour and, therefore, the start of several months of R&R for most of the pro peloton. Several big names enjoyed one last hurrah in the 2.HC Japan Cycle Cup (won for a second time by Garmin-Sharp’s Nathan Haas), but with that race in the books, the vast majority of WorldTour riders have begun their offseason, with only a select few top-level pros still participating in races like the Tour of Hainan.

Most of the peloton will welcome the opportunity to rest and recover, but the offseason does come with an unfortunate side effect: the professional road cycling world inevitably quiets down a bit during the wintertime! For instance, there won’t be any VeloHuman race previews until January, when the 2015 WorldTour kicks off with the Tour Down Under. Even after that, things don’t really get rolling until early March and the double billing of Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico. But that doesn’t mean things will be completely silent around here or in the road cycling world at large during the cold-weather months: there’s always something happening in this sport, and even when the biggest stars aren’t racing on the asphalt, some recognizable names are racing in the dirt (cyclocross season is here!), the routes of next year’s major races are being revealed all the time, and several top riders are still hunting for teams for the upcoming season. In other words, stay tuned! There is still plenty of analysis to come here at VH even during the long dark offseason. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter to stay connected.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Contando Estrelas.

October 22, 2014
Tour of Beijing 2014 Preview

The WorldTour calendar concludes with the Tour of Beijing, a five-day stage race in and around China’s capital city. The event may be in its final year of existence, but it should provide a good show: plenty of big names have made the trip to China for the farewell party. The race may not have the history or prestige of other stage races on the WT calendar, but it is the last opportunity for the pros to pick up WorldTour wins, and it also tends to see a relatively high number teams filling their squads with younger riders hunting name-making victories. In short, there is still plenty of motivation in the peloton to land results in this race.

The Route

The organizers have added a few extra bumps between the Stage 1 start and the Stage 5 finish, but this race has always had plenty of opportunities for the sprinters and the 2014 edition is no exception. The opening stage has a few early hills but the second half of the stage is mostly flat or downhill, and anything but a sprint finish would be a surprise. Stage 2 offers a few uphill tests, but a long stretch of flat before the finish will favor the faster finishers again. Stage 3 could shake things up, with seven categorized climbs, including a Cat. 1 in the middle of the day and a Cat. 3 crested 11 kilometers from the finish.

Stage 4: Yanqing › Mentougou Miaofeng Mountain (157 km) – The Queen Stage of the Tour of Beijing concludes with a climb of Miaofeng Mountain; this race was won on its slopes last year, and the ascent is likely to be the decisive test in this year’s edition as well.

Stage 4 is the Queen Stage of the Tour of Beijing, and it closes out with the Maofeng Mountain climb that decided last year’s edition of the race (Movistar’s Beñat Intxausti sailed past Dan Martin to take the stage and, ultimately, the time gap that led to his overall victory, on the final slopes). This year, a Category 2 test has been added just before the final ascent to provide extra excitement; this should be the most important GC day in the race. The fifth and final stage starts in Tiananmen Square and heads into an urban circuit that finishes near the National Stadium (typically known as the Bird’s Nest) built for the 2008 Olympics. It’s a pan-flat profile and should see another sprint showdown for the final WorldTour victory of 2014.

The General Classification Contenders

Daniel Martin of Garmin-Sharp is one of a collection of riders who have continually targeted this race, young though it may be, over the past few years. The Irish climber came close to victory last year, but Movistar had too much firepower in the Queen Stage, and Martin had to settle for second. When he has been healthy this year, Martin has been very strong, and coming off his second career Monument victory last weekend, he is obviously on blazing form. He is very well-suited to the Tour of Beijing: this is a short race that is likely to be decided on one or two climb-heavy days, which will give an explosive talent like Martin a chance to showcase his abilities, while limiting the likelihood of a bad day. Ryder Hesjedal will be a very strong second. Garmin has the strength here to fight for the overall victory.

Rui Costa was part of that powerhouse Movistar squad in 2013, coming in 4th overall, but this year he rides as team leader for Lampre-Merida. He has showed strong late-season form, he told VH this past weekend that he’s targeting a big result here in Beijing, and he is always very dangerous in the weeklong stage races at the highest level, with already three podium finishes (including a win) in the World one-weekers this year. Costa is motivated to close out his season with a victory, and should again be in the mix at the top of the leaderboard, especially with a few added challenges in this years race that could favor his brand of aggressive riding on the harder days.

BMC’s one-two punch of Tejay van Garderen and Samuel Sanchez will be hard to counter. At peak form, van Garderen is one of the very best stage racers on this startlist, but his shape, and his motivation for that matter, are a bit of an unknown. Still, it’s been a strong year for the American, and he’s shown some newly developed explosiveness that could make the difference in this race that does offer bonus seconds at the stage finishes. Form isn’t a question for teammate Samuel Sanchez, who was 5th in Il Lombardia last week. His 6th overall finish in the Vuelta earlier this month would suggest that he still has plenty in the tank on the climbs, even at age 36, and he gives BMC another card to play here.

Last year’s winner Beñat Intxausti makes his return looking for a repeat. It’s always hard to judge form with Intxausti, who is so often tasked with riding for Nairo Quintana or Alejandro Valverde, but who does have some real achievements on his palmares; in addition to the 2013 victory here, he has been 2nd in Pais Vasco, 3rd in Pologne, and 8th in the Giro in his still relatively young career. If he is in good shape here, he should be able to contend for another win, though admittedly with just a bit less firepower at his disposal than he had in 2013 when Rui Costa was a teammate. Jesus Herrada, who has had a nice year, will hope to thrive as second in his stead.

Giant-Shimano’s Warren Barguil has looked strong the past several weeks, and his Vuelta Top 10 was a real achievement, especially against such strong competition. With no time trials and a probable mountain showdown for GC honors, the Tour of Beijing would seem to fit him nicely. The 22-year-old mixed it up with some of the best in the world in Spain and he’ll have a chance to pick up his first win of the season here.

It’s been a quiet year for Team Sky’s David Lopez, but the Spaniard took 3rd here last year and he does have a fair bit of uphill talent and the ability to get aggressive on the climbs. Teammate Phil Deignan should thrive on this parcours, and Dario Cataldo, who has put in several big rides this year, can’t be counted out; Sky has options in the race.

Form and motivation are a question mark for Rigoberto Uran, but the Colombian has plenty of uphill talent and a particularly speedy finishing kick in a fight for bonus seconds. If he’s in shape, he’ll be a top contender. Countryman Julian Arredondo of Trek Factory Racing is another star of the Giro who hasn’t had quite the same results late in the year, but he looked okay in Milano-Torino and could be the mix. Teammate Robert Kiserlovski has not landed any big results recently either, but if he can find some of his early season form, he could get involved in the General Classification battle.

Katusha’s Sergei Chernetckii, OGE’s Simon Yates, Esteban Chaves, and Pieter Weening, FDJ’s Alexandre Geniez, and Belkin’s Steven Kruijswijk are on the list of GC outsiders. AG2R sends Carlos Betancur, whose abilities are well-suited to a race likely to come down to one day of climbing, but who hasn’t shown any form since April; Rinaldo Nocentini was 6th here in 2012 and has looked very strong in his past few races, and could be the better bet.

The Stagehunters

Several potential sprint stages have drawn a number of quick men (especially young ones) to Beijing. Luka Mezgec and Sacha Modolo are probably the fastest sprinters on the startlist. Ben Swift put in a decent sprint at Worlds and should be in the mix. Youngster Caleb Ewan of OGE could get involved in the fast finishes, as could veteran Daryl Impey. Other likely sprint contenders are Garmin-Sharp’s Tyler Farrar, Belkin’s Moreno Hofland, Trek’s Danny van Poppel, AG2R’s Davide Appollonio, and OPQS’s Nikolas Maes. Meanwhile, riders like Philippe Gilbert, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Adam Hansen, and Giovanni Visconti could be on the lookout for opportunities to get clear of the purer sprinters when the road gets a little more challenging.

VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites

Winner: Daniel Martin
Podium: Rui Costa, Warren Barguil
Other Top Contenders: Beñat Intxausti, Samuel Sanchez, Tejay van Garderen, Rigoberto Uran, Robert Kiserlovski, David Lopez, Julian Arredondo

That’s it for VeloHuman’s race previews in 2014. I hope you have enjoyed reading them! Be sure to follow VeloHuman on Twitter, and stay tuned for more commentary and analysis during the offseason; the racing may stop, but VeloHuman won’t.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Leo Laporte.

October 9, 2014
Rui Costa “Happy” with Time in Rainbow Jersey and Hoping for Another Strong Year to Follow, Off to a Good Start with Podium Performance in Il Lombardia

After a year in the rainbow stripes, Rui Costa donned Lampre fuschia in today’s Il Lombardia, having handed over his World Championship title to rising star Michal Kwiatkowski in Ponferrada last weekend. The Tour of Lombardy, taking place on Costa’s 28th birthday, proved an excellent opportunity for him to land a nice result: he sprinted to 3rd in a select group behind the day’s winner, Daniel Martin, yet another good performance for Costa in a season that has been full of them. The Portuguese star may not have taken a lot of outright wins in 2014, but he has been a major protagonist in several big races all year. His two victories came in the Tour de Suisse, where he won a stage and the overall, and he also notched 2nd places in Paris-Nice and in the GP Montréal, his final WorldTour race in the rainbow jersey. He’d hoped for a better result in the Tour de France (he abandoned midway through, suffering from pneumonia) but even in that race, he was riding well prior to his exit.

Reflecting on his season from Italy today, he told VeloHuman that he was pleased with his time as the World Champ: “I think I did a very good year with the rainbow. Only two victories but many podiums and points so I am happy with my results. I hope next year will be like this one.”

Costa made the Worlds defense a major priority this season, but repeating his result was a tall order: the parcours in Ponferrada was significantly less climber-friendly than the circuit in Florence that saw him ride into the rainbow stripes in 2013.

“In this Worlds I was not so good as I wished to be, but I felt okay. This profile was not so good for me as last year. In 2013 it was more difficult and I prefer hard profiles,” Costa said.

While his 23rd place in Ponferrada was disappointing, Costa, having come to terms with the fact that defending his title was always going to be extremely difficult, seems to be in good spirits even with his year in the rainbow jersey behind him. Plus, handing over that jersey comes with a few positives. For one, he is no longer the focus of quite as much attention, allowing him to concentrate more completely on racing.

“The rainbow jersey represents a high responsibility and intense scrutiny,” he said. “I think there will be less pressure on me this year. . . . I hope so.”

Without having to worry about that intense scrutiny, Costa kicked off his time in Lampre-Merida colors in style, nabbing his first ever Monument Classic podium in Il Lombardia. It’s certainly a promising start to his career as a now-former World Champ. Next, he’ll make the long flight to China to take on the year’s final WorldTour race, the Tour of Beijing, where he’s hoping for a good result; he told VeloHuman that he’s currently feeling “okay” in terms of form, which his performance in Italy would seem to confirm.

After a year full of encouraging results, Costa has high hopes for next season. “I will try to do a Top 10 in the Tour for next year. My calendar for 2015 will be similar to this year. I think that is best for me,” he said.

With plenty of nice results that he can build on, Costa has reason to feel confident for both his next race, in Beijing, and his next season. With his excellent Tour de Suisse and a collection of high finishes elsewhere, he performed at a high level even under the World Champion’s spotlight, and with a podium placing in his first post-Worlds race, Costa looks primed for continued success in the near future.

-Dane Cash

October 5, 2014
Il Lombardia 2014 Post-race Impressions: Martin Takes Another Monument as Valverde, Others Hesitate in the Final Moments

Dan Martin closed out the year’s final Monument Classic with panache, jumping clear of a select bunch inside the last kilometer to deny some fast finishers in the group a chance to sprint for the win. New changes to Il Lombardia’s route certainly played their part in deciding the eventual winner of the race, with none of the many elite uphill specialists on the startlist able to get much separation on the climbs, but that didn’t deter the 27-year-old Irish star: he hung with the lead group and launched a brilliant late strike on the final flat to take the win while many of the of favorites simply watched him fly past. Martin may not have taken as many big results this season as he would have hoped, but his second Monument victory shouldn’t really come as a surprise, as he has flashed his great ability on numerous occasions throughout the year, only to be derailed several times by untimely crashes. After a great ride in La Fleche Wallonne, Martin looked to be in a great position to nab another Monument in the ensuing Liege-Bastogne-Liege and his first Grand Tour Top 10 in the Giro d’Italia. Crashes took him out of contention in both races, but he picked up his first Grand Tour Top 10 (in the Vuelta) and now he’s won that second Monument anyway. An explosive climber with a special talent for the one-day races and currently in his prime, Martin should be a major threat in the hilly classics for years to come.

Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde has been a major threat in the hilly classics for years already, but he followed a familiar script in Il Lombardia, hoping for a reduced sprint at the end of a tough day; that plan didn’t work in Ponferrada last week (where a lack of cohesion in a strong chasing group left Valverde and Simon Gerrans sprinting for the lower steps of the podium behind Michal Kwiatkowski), and it failed again here. As strong as Valverde has been in 2014, his results have included a whole lot of near misses, but I’m not sure he plans on changing his approach any time soon.

Rui Costa landed another big result in a season also filled with near misses, but it can’t be said that he hasn’t given 100% trying to turn those close calls into wins: just as was the case in Montreal, where he finished 2nd, he made the attempt to jump clear late here but was unable to get any space, and still managed to add a nice result to his palmares. In fact, this was his first ever podium in a Monument Classic.

Tim Wellens of Lotto Belisol has been a revelation this year, and his 4th place in Il Lombardia is a nice addition to his already impressive list of achievements in 2014. He has explosiveness and has performed well on difficult profiles throughout the season. He tried to escape from the lead group over the Bergamo Alta, and though he did not succeed, his Top 5 finish in the company of an Olympic champion, a World Champion, and multiple Monument winners is something to be proud of.

The parcours of the new route was not as favorable to Joaquim Rodriguez, who could only manage 8th place after dominating this race in back-to-back years. Fellow climbing specialist Fabio Aru was confident coming into this race and earned a lot of attention as a potential contender, but the last two climbs just weren’t hard enough to launch the pure climbers to victory, and the young Italian had to settle for 9th.

Another rider who will be disappointed with his day in Italy is newly crowned World Champ Michal Kwiatkowski. He spent much of the day very close to the front of the peloton, looking to be in good shape, and with the way the race played out, one might have expected a strong challenge for victory from Kwiatkowski, but he was badly affected by cramps in the last 10 kilometers of the race, suddenly cutting the power to his engine just as things started to heat up. It’s not the result he was hoping for, of course, but it’s been a long season for Kwiatkowski, and now he’ll at least have an opportunity to recharge the batteries before what’s sure to be an exciting 2015 in the rainbow jersey.

With Il Lombardia in the rearview mirror, only one race remains on the 2014 WorldTour calendar! Stay tuned for the preview of the Tour of Beijing, and plenty more analysis as the season comes to a close.

-Dane Cash

Photo by MorBCN.

October 5, 2014
Il Lombardia 2014 Preview

Worlds may be over, but the 2014 cycling season isn’t quite done yet. There are still two events on the WorldTour calendar, including the final Monument of the year, Il Lombardia (formerly the Giro di Lombardia, the Tour of Lombardy). It’s a race with a lot of history, and the parcours (though updated this year) always provides plenty of uphill challenges to make for an exciting day; in recent years, those challenges have proven ideal for climbing specialist Joaquim Rodriguez, who has won the previous two editions.

The Route

Still a scenic ride through the hilly Lombardy region of Italy, the “Race of the Falling Leaves” has a new route with new climbs to overcome this year. Instead of starting in Bergamo, Il Lombardia 2014 will finish there, setting out from Como and weaving alongside lakes and over several climbs before the line after a total of 254 kilometers. The first vertical challenge is the Madonna del Ghisallo, which, in previous editions, featured much later in the route. This year, it will be crested only 58 kilometers into the race, but it will still inject plenty of pain into the legs early in the day. Roughly 8.6 kilometers at around a 6.2% average grade, the climb is significantly harder than those general numbers would suggest due to its irregular nature. Things flatten out for a few kilometers in the middle of the ascent, but on both sides of this reprieve are stretches where the gradient jumps over 10%.

After the Madonna del Ghisallo, things ease off for a while as the road heads toward Bergamo, which the riders will pass through a little over 130 kilometers into the race before embarking on a long, wide loop that will take them over some challenging climbs on the way back to Bergamo for the finish. The tough stuff starts in earnest with the Colle Gallo (7.4 km at 6%) after about 157 kilometers, and from there it’s mostly up and down to the line. After a fast descent comes the hardest climb of the race, the Passo di Ganda, 9.2 kilometers at 7.3%. Crested about 65 kilometers from the finish, it’s certain to force some selection. A tricky descent follows, interrupted by a short but very steep climb to Bracca, and then another downhill stretch to the foot of the Berbenno climb, which is likely to be a major battleground. 5.5 kilometers at 5.3%, there are a few particularly steep stretches early on, maxing out at 10%. From the top, it’s less than 30 kilometers from the finish line. The peloton will take on a fast descent and then ride on relatively flat roads until the final climb of the day, the Bergamo Alta. It’s only a little over a kilometer to the top, but the average gradient is a demanding 7.9%, and once the climb is crested less than 4 km remain to the line, mostly downhill and with plenty of twists and turns along the way; the winner of the race will likely be one of the first few riders over the Bergamo Alta, as there isn’t much room to recover lost ground after the climb. The ensuing downhill gradient flattens out for the final 500 meters of the race, which could set up a reduced sprint to the line if a small group of riders are together in the lead.

As an autumn race, Il Lombardia is no stranger to difficult conditions. Purito’s two victories have both been rainy affairs, and there is again a chance of rain this year; with so many descents on the docket, wet roads would certainly shake up an already unpredictable race.

The Contenders

The Final Monument Classic of the season, Il Lombardia tends to draw most of the top specialists of the hilly one-day events looking to take one last big prize on the year; the 2014 edition of the race is no exception. Joaquim Rodriguez returns to Il Lombardia hoping to collect his third straight win. It won’t be easy. He has been on decent form in the second half of his season, but he wasn’t quite at the level he’d planned to be during the Vuelta and he did not make as much of an impact at Worlds as maybe he’d hoped. Still, he has been unstoppable in Lombardy in the past few seasons, landing three straight podium performances, and he put in a strong ride (to take 5th) in this week’s Milano-Torino. I’m not sure the new parcours suits him quite as well as past editions did, but Purito is motivated to get more out of this year than he has so far. Katusha has a lot of firepower in the race to support Rodriguez or to provide alternatives. Daniel Moreno was 6th in this race last year and is a particularly strong sprinter even on flat roads should he find himself in shootout late, and he showed good form in Milano-Torino, coming in 3rd. The winner of that race also happens to ride for Katusha: Giampaolo Caruso, always aggressive and having a strong year (he was 4th in Liege-Bastogne-Liege), will be another weapon in Il Lombardia, as will Alexandr Kolobnev. The team will need all hands on deck, given the startlist and a less Purito-friendly profile, to defend their title.

Alejandro Valverde was runner-up in 2013 and the alterations to the route should be just fine with him; he couldn’t stay with Rodriguez on the Villa Vergano climb last year, and he no longer has to worry about that this year. Valverde’s versatile skillset makes him a difficult opponent. He may have Grand Tour-winning climbing talent, but he also has an especially strong sprint, and that could be critical to victory here. Few riders likely to survive the entire day at the head of affairs are as quick at the finish as Valverde; expect to see his rivals do everything they can in an attempt to drop him before the final few kilometers (which will be a pretty tall order). They know that Valverde, coming off a podium performance at Worlds, is probably the top favorite for the race, even with Rodriguez here looking for a third straight win. Movistar also has Giovanni Visconti and several top climbers in attendance, among them, Beñat Intxausti and Ion Izagirre.

One rider who may have the top speed to challenge even Valverde in a reduced sprint finale is new World Champion Michal Kwiatkowski. His daring escape from the peloton in the Ponferrada finale may be his most famous accomplishment so far in his career, but his finishing kick is very impressive in and of itself. If he can hold on over the tough climbs, he can contest the victory in a number of ways, whether that means launching another bold move or holding on for a group finish. The rainbow jersey isn’t the only threat on a loaded OPQS team: Rigoberto Uran is a two-time podium finisher in this race, Pieter Serry was an impressive 7th last year, and Wout Poels and Gianluca Brambilla have been particularly strong in 2014.

Garmin-Sharp’s Daniel Martin has been 8th, 4th, and even 2nd in this race already in his career; the 2013 Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner thrives in the hillier one-day races, and Il Lombardia definitely qualifies. Martin’s sprinting chops seem to have improved this year should a small group reach the line together, and he should again be one of the top contenders in the race. Ryder Hesjedal and Tom-Jelte Slagter will give Garmin-Sharp a strong, multi-facted attack plan.

Tinkoff-Saxo’s Alberto Contador may not have the one-day resume to match his stage-racing palmares, but on a climber-friendly parcours, few are as dangerous. He will need to get clear of the faster finishers, but the abundance of ascents, especially the Berbenno climb (though not especially challenging by itself, it does have steep stretches and it comes near the end of a day full of ups and downs) will give him opportunities. Success in the Monument Classics has eluded Contador so far in his career but he’s had a brilliant year and looked to still be on strong form even in October with a 6th place in Milano-Torino. Teammate Oliver Zaugg was the surprise winner of this race in 2011, and he’s not having a bad year himself.

The back-to-back Giro di Lombardia victories of BMC’s Philippe Gilbert may seem like a lifetime ago now, but he should still be a threat on this parcours. Coming off a strong ride at Worlds, where he was really the only rider in the first chase group doing any work attempting to close down Michal Kwiatkowski and still landed 7th, Gilbert looks to be on good form. The short climb that closes out this race will be a nice potential launching pad for Gilbert; alternatively, he could rely on his strong sprint if he sticks with the lead group over the top. Samuel Sanchez, a four-time podium finisher here, can’t be overlooked either. 6th overall in this year’s hotly contested Vuelta is nothing to sneeze at, and his age probably hasn’t diminished his elite descending skills, which will come in handy here. Tejay van Garderen and Cadel Evans bring even more firepower for BMC.

Now former World Champion Rui Costa wasn’t able to make it into the Gerrans/Valverde move in Ponferrada, but he finished respectably with the group behind, and the form he showed in Montreal isn’t likely to have faded just yet. This is an excellent profile for Costa, who is particularly adept at breaking away from the pack on hillier days and capable in a reduced sprint as well, and he is highly motivated to pick up more victories this season.

AG2R may have explosive Carlos Betancur and Tour de France runner-up Jean-Christophe Peraud on the startlist, but Romain Bardet looks to be the team’s strongest option, having shown some surprising one-day racing chops this season (10th in Liege-Bastogne-Liege and 5th in Montreal). Il Lombardia suits him about as well as any classic on the calendar, and he’ll be among the most dangerous potential escapees on the late climbs. Rinaldo Nocentini, 2nd in Milano-Torino, is obviously on terrific form and could be in contention as well, as could Domenico Pozzovivo.

Belkin’s Bauke Mollema has the uphill talent to get involved at the business end of the race, and an underrated finishing kick, especially after a lumpy day (he outsprinted Joaquim Rodriguez for 2nd in the Clasica de San Sebastian in August). With Wilco Kelderman, another very complete rider, Lars Petter Nordhaug, and Laurens Ten Dam as well, Belkin has options. Lotto-Belisol is another team with several different weapons here: Tony Gallopin will hope to stick with the premium climbing favorites over the harder ascents so that he can challenge for victory with a late escape or in a reduced sprint finish, while Tim Wellens and Jelle Vanendert are both excellent bets to get aggressive on the hills. Orica-GreenEdge, as might be expected in a race with this many hills, also has a stacked squad, with Michael Albasini, an excellent climber with a fast finish, probably the strongest option and Daryl Impey, Esteban Chaves, Pieter Weening, and Adam and Simon Yates all dangerous, too. Astana has elite uphill talent Fabio Aru, who may not have the classics experience, but who can attack on a climb better than almost anyone in the professional peloton; meanwhile, Enrico Gasparotto is an always-underrated contender in the hilly one-day races, and he was 5th in last year’s Tour of Lombardy. FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot, Cannondale’s strong and on-form Alessandro De Marchi, Davide Formolo, and Damiano Caruso, Giant-Shumano’s Tom Dumoulin, Warren Barguil, and Simon Geschke, Bardiani’s Edoardo Zardini, Europcar’s Cyril Gautier, Trek’s Frank Schleck (a decent 9th in Milano-Torino) and Julian Arredondo, and Caja Rural’s Luis Leon Sanchez are on the long list of outside contenders who will hope to be in the mix as well. Sky’s Ben Swift deserves the final mention; it seems highly unlikely that he’d survive to the finish, but he’s a more capable climber and one-day racer than most other sprinters, and this profile at least leaves the door open just a bit.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Alejandro Valverde
Podium: Joaquim Rodriguez, Michal Kwiatkowski
Other Top Contenders: Daniel Martin, Alberto Contador, Daniel Moreno, Philippe Gilbert, Rui Costa, Romain Bardet, Bauke Mollema

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary and analysis, and check back soon for the preview of the final race of the 2014 season, the Tour of Beijing, and more interviews and analysis!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Matthew Peoples.

October 3, 2014