Stage 21: Santiago de Compostela › Santiago de Compostela. El Final del Camino – 9.7 km
The Vuelta’s final stage is here! After Alberto Contador’s decisive mountain victory in the penultimate day of the race, the short individual time trial up next won’t have much of an impact on the General Classification, but stage honors are still on offer, and there are plenty of riders who will like their chances to close out the last Grand Tour of the year with a win.
The 9.7 kilometer route begins with a flat section and then a short downhill stretch, followed by a long section of slight ups and and downs (it averages more up than down) that evens out with about 3 kilometers to go. Then comes a quick descent and then the flattish (there is a very, very minor gradient) final 1.5 kilometers. Without much in the way of topography, and at less than 10 kilometers, it’s going to be an extremely fast stage. It may rain, and it could be a bit windy, both factors that could definitely shake things up in a chrono like this.
The Stage 21 profile suits the real specialists in the time trialing discipline, but a 9.7 kilometer ITT after three weeks of tough racing is different from a short ITT to start a Grand Tour. Everyone will be feeling the effects of the long jorney through Spain. That could make for some interesting results in the Vuelta’s last day.
One star time trialist who should still be feeling good even after all the challenging climbs of the race is Sky’s Chris Froome. Barring a bad crash by Contador, Froome won’t have any chance of taking enough time back from the race leader to move up from 2nd place, but he’ll still want to put in a big ride and maybe come away from the race with a stage win. He has looked stellar in the past few days (a significant improvement over the way he looked in the Vuelta’s first time trial), and this will be a nice chance to end the Vuelta on a high note. He won a similar short chrono back in June in the Dauphine. Starting late in the day, he’ll be able to gauge his efforts against those who have gone before, and he’ll also probably face a bit less wind.
Movistar’s Adriano Malori was underwhelming in the Vuelta’s first race against the clock, but this short, flat test suits him perfectly. He took his first WorldTour win in Tirreno-Adriatico back in March on a very similar profile, beating out Tony Martin and Fabian Cancellara in the process. He should contend for the win here.
Trek’s Kristof Vandewalle is another chrono specialist who should be in the mix. He’s been hard to beat against the clock recently. He took a win over Malori in the closing time trial stage of the Tour de Pologne last month. Teammate Jesse Sergeant, very strong in flat ITTs, will be another top contender on Stage 21.
Garmin-Sharp’s Rohan Dennis hasn’t had as much of an impact on this Vuelta as maybe he would have hoped coming in, but he’s an elite time trialist who will love this chance to land a result before the race is over.
Tinkoff-Saxo’s Alberto Contador can’t be ruled out, having come in a close 2nd to Froome in the short ITT that opened the Dauphine. Despite his comfortable hold on the red jersey, he’s not one to pass up a chance at victory.
Michael Matthews could surprise some people: he’s quite effective against the clock in a shorter chorno. Maciej Bodnar, Daniele Bennati, Alexey Lutsenko, Manuel Quinziato, Jonathan Castroviejo, Tobias Ludvigsson, Cameron Meyer, and Patrick Gretsch are others who could contend for stage honors here.
As Stage 21 is the final stage of the race, this is the last VeloHuman preview of the 2014 Vuelta a España. I’ve had a blast previewing every day of racing, and I hope you’ve enjoyed reading! Stay connected by following @VeloHuman on Twitter and by checking out the brand new VH Facebook page, and don’t miss VeloHuman’s preview of the Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal, the last WorldTour race before the World Championships in Spain. VH will of course be previewing the main events of Worlds as well, so stay tuned.
The first of the Canadian WorldTour events is in the books, and now it’s on to Montreal. Another urban circuit race, the GP Montreal shares a hilly profile with its sister race in Quebec and, often, many of the same riders who shine in one do well in the other, but there are differences in the parcours, and no one has ever won both races in the same season. Plenty of names stand out as favorites, but the startlist is loaded with talent and the route will make a few different race scenarios possible. In short, the 2014 Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal should be an exciting race, and it won’t be easy to predict the outcome.
The Route
The 12.1 kilometer circuit (17 laps of which will make for a total race distance of 205.7 kilometers) starts along the Avenue du Parc, makes a loop along the slopes of Montreal’s namesake Mount Royal, and then finishes back where it started. There are three uphill sections in each lap. After a short downhill from the starting line, the first and most challenging climb comes almost immediately, the 1.8 kilometer, 8% average gradient Côte Camillien-Houde. Then comes a fast descent, a brief flat section, and the next uphill test, the short but difficult Côte de la Polytechnique, 780 meters at a 6% average but with a steep 11% stretch of 200 meters along the way. After another descent, things even out for a a bit until the final 1100 meters: the riders will make a right turn heading south and shoot downhill on the Avenue du Parc, and then they will make a 180 degree turn to head back up the Avenue in the other direction towards the line. That final run-in is a 560 meter, 4% climb.
The Montreal circuit is, on the whole, harder than that of the GP Quebec. The Côte Camillien-Houde, crested 17 times, will put the heavier riders into serious difficulty and will likely launch attacks that will be a lot harder to marshal than those that were swallowed up without ever being much of a real threat in Quebec. The finish in Montreal, however, is a lot easier, meaning that sprinting legs will be important if a small group of riders come to the finish together; alternatively, a strong enough solo artist could stay clear after an attack on the circuit’s difficult early slopes.
The Contenders
A one-day race parcours favoring strong climbers with explosive finishes would bring Simon Gerrans to mind even if he hadn’t just taken the win in Quebec. With the form he just showed, he’ll be a top favorite for more success here. His rivals will be watching him closely, but Gerrans told VeloHuman today that he doesn’t feel any pressure coming in as a favorite after his win, and that instead the pressure is on the other teams to get something of the race. He also said that he feels the Montreal parcours might suit OGE even better than Quebec did.
Simon Gerrans on the Montreal parcours and the riders his team will be keeping an eye on
Gerrans has the uphill ability to get over the climbs and the sprint to beat almost anyone in the race. The biggest challenge for OGE will be the hard-to-control profile; Gerrans is capable of getting into moves or even making them on his own, but lately he has preferrred holding out for the sprint in these sorts of races, and Orica-GreenEdge will have their hands full trying to keep this together if that’s how they decide to play this. They have a very strong team here, though, and hilly profile specialists like Michael Albasini, Jens Keukeleire, Pieter Weening, and Daryl Impey (on top-notch form right now) will be great allies or, potentially, dangerous alternatives.
Rui Costa was unable to get clear of the pack in Quebec and then had to cut his sprint short after Arthur Vichot went down right in front of him. Nevertheless, he was at the front as the race neared its climax. Montreal will give him a better opportunity to get aggressive. Few can launch an escape on a hilly profile as well as Rui Costa, and he has the burst of speed to win a sprint battle if need be. He’s never been outside the Top 10 in his Montreal-racing career, and he should continue to perform at a high level here. This will be an excellent opportunity for Costa to prove his form before his Worlds defense.
Quebec runner-up Tom Dumoulin should also love this attacker-friendly profile. He’s the best soloist in the startlist, and if he can get clear of the bunch, his rivals will have a hard time tracking him down. Teammate Simon Geschke, always handy in the sprints that come after hilly days, is a great alternative for Giant-Shimano.
BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet was hoping for a better result in Quebec, but Montreal will provide him with another chance at success. Van Avermaet told VH before the GP Quebec that he felt that, of the two, it suited him better. However, with the quality of punchy, fast finishers here in Canada, Montreal’s profile, more likely to spring the sort of successful long-range attacks for which Van Avermaet is known, should be good for him as well. He was 4th here last year. Don’t rule out a big ride from teammate Tejay van Garderen either; the American GC rider put in a strong dig on the final climb in Quebec, showing that he’s interested in getting involved in these races.
Bauke Mollema was the best-placed of the GC-style riders in Quebec (landing 10th), and Montreal should suit him better if he and some of the other top climbers can make for a selective race. He also packs a great sprint, and if the ascending specialists can drop the less uphill-inclined, he’ll be a dangerous contender. Sep Vanmarcke, 7th in Quebec, may find Montreal a bit hilly, but he is climbing very well this year and with his Worlds role still undetermined, he will likely be going full gas here.
Garmin-Sharp has a lot of firepower in Canada. Ramunas Navardauskas showed off his ever-widening array of skills with a strong uphill sprint to 3rd. The Montreal profile will really put him to the test, but Garmin-Sharp won’t panic if he struggles on the final few climbs: Tom-Jelte Slagter looked good in Quebec, finishing 11th, and this is an excellent race for him. Fabian Wegmann has put in strong performances here in the past as well.
Alexander Kristoff will be in for a real battle to stick with the pack if the pace is high in the final few trips up the Côte Camillien-Houde. If this does come down to a sprint, and if he has made it to the line with the lead group, he’ll have an excellent opportunity to pick up the win, as the finish is less challenging than the one in Quebec, where he only managed 21st place. Simon Spilak will again be a good second.
OPQS’s Gianni Meersman has great climbing legs (for a sprinter) and may be a bit more likely than Kristoff to stick with the peloton on the steep stuff. Having just taken 6th in Quebec, he’s showing good form right now, and he’ll be a top favorite if he’s there for a sprint. The team has options, though, with Jan Bakelants (10th in 2013) very well-suited to this sort of parcours, and with Zdenek Stybar, Julian Alaphillipe, and Matteo Trentin here as well, OPQS will undoubtedly be involved in the action.
Astana is another team bringing a versatile fast finisher and several puncheurs and climbers to be ready for any race scenario. Francesco Gavazzi will have a chance to be in the mix in a bunch sprint. Enrico Gasparotto sometimes disappears in races that would look to suit him, but having landed 8th in Quebec he looks good enough to contend on a Montreal parcours that should be very good for him. Jakob Fuglsang and Borut Bozic are other strong riders for the team.
Lotto Belisol’s Tony Gallopin was 10th here in 2012, and he looked good in Quebec. Lotto has several great talents for this profile, with Jelle Vanendert and Tim Wellens here too. Tinkoff-Saxo’s Matti Breschel could get involved if a larger group comes to the line together, while Michael Rogers can never be counted out in a race with plenty of opportunities for long-range attacks. Movistar has speedy JJ Lobato, JJ Rojas, and Fran Ventoso, but all-rounder Jesus Herrada also looks strong at the moment. AG2R’s climber-heavy squad should appreciate the tougher uphill challenges in Montreal; Jean-Christophe Peraud, Romain Bardet, and Christophe Riblon will have their chances to try to get away on the slopes. Trek’s Robert Kiserlovski and Frank Schleck may be thinking the same thing. Team Sky was unable to make anything out of Quebec, with Geraint Thomas struggling on the climbs, but this profile doesn’t look bad for Thomas (if Friday’s performance was just a bad day) and Edvald Boasson Hagen, and Chris Sutton looks to be strong right now as well. Cannondale’s trio of Davide Formolo, Marco Marcato, and Moreno Moser showed form in Quebec, with the first two finishing in the Top 20, and the third spending a lot of time in the morning breakaway. Europcar has Bryan Coquard for a possible sprint, and punchy Cyril Gautier and Yukiya Arashiro to animate the climbs. Team Canada will likely back Ryan Anderson, who has shown good form in his past few races.
VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites
Winner: Simon Gerrans Podium: Tom Dumoulin, Rui Costa Other Top Contenders: Bauke Mollema, Greg Van Avermaet, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Gianni Meersman, Tony Gallopin, Alexander Kristoff, Ramunas Navardauskas
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live coverage of the GP Montreal, and check back after the finish for post-race analysis!
Stage 20: Santo Estevo de Ribas de Sil › Puerto de Ancares – 185.7 km
Following an Adam Hansen victory on a day without many GC implications, Stage 20, the final mountain stage of the 2014 Vuelta a Espana, is here. The parcours should make for quite a showdown. There are four categorized climbs on the profile, and a few more uncategorized challenges, and the constant barrage of ascents will be an uncomfortable experience for a peloton that has been racing for three weeks. The final 32 kilometers are particularly difficult. The Alto de Folgueiras de Aigas is 9.7 kilometers long at an average of 6.7%; just the sort of test to wear out the legs before the vicious final climb of the 2014 Vuelta. The Puerto de Ancares is a monstrous challenge, 12.7 km at 8.7%. Several stretches are significantly steeper (one such stretch, at 12%, comes in the last 2 km), and there aren’t many easy sections to offer respite. The last mountain stage of the last Grand Tour of the year would likely see aggressive riding regardless, but this final climb practically guarantees that the attacks will fly.
The up-and-down second half will make it hard for the peloton to control the race, but as this is the last opportunity for the uphill specialists to shake up the General Classification, the GC men aren’t likely to hold back when the road goes up, which will make it hard for anyone up the road to stay clear. One thing is for certain: it will take an elite pair of climbing legs to win on this stage.
Several very steep sections on the final climb will favor the ultra-lightweight climber types, and few of them are as in-shape right now as race leader Alberto Contador. He’ll be able to follow the attacks, rather than make them, and he’s already shown how dangerous that makes him. His rivals will certainly throw everything they have at him, but when it’s mattered most in this race, Contador has not shown much weakness on the climbs.
Chris Froome has gotten much stronger over the course of this Vuelta, and he’s not going to let this chance to move up the leaderboard get away without a fight. The profile may look to suit some of his rivals a bit better, but Froome has looked strong enough these past few days that it may not matter. Expect to see him attempt a big attack on Stage 20 to try to open up a sizable gap to the rest of the GC contenders.
Joaquim Rodriguez should appreciate the steep finish. He’s been just a bit less strong on the climbs than he might have hoped coming into the Vuelta, but he’ll still have an opportunity to pick up the stage win here. He’s far enough back on the General Classification now that he may get a little bit of breathing room for Contador and Froome if he tries something.
Alejandro Valverde probably won’t get any space to attempt a move, but he’s still a danger. He seems content to hold wheels and hope for sprints even on the climbs that suit him, and that aversion to major risks, while it has kept him from ever picking up any huge gaps to his GC rivals, does make him a constant danger for stage success.
Fabio Aru will have a great opportunity to add to his tally of stage wins with this steep finale; Contador and Co. have shown on multiple occasions that they won’t chase down his attacks, and that gives him even more of an edge than he already has thanks to his awesome uphill ability. Repeating what’s been said in most of the other mountain stage previews so far, Dan Martin, Samuel Sanchez, Daniel Navarro, and Warren Barguil are others who look strong right now and who will probably have freedom to put in moves from the pack.
It’s always hard to predict potential breakaway protagonists, but at least this profile whittles down the list of realistic long-distance contenders to those with immense uphill talent. Ryder Hesjedal has been on excellent form in the Vuelta so far and this long day of climbing suits his one-time-Grand-Tour-winning skillset perfectly. Przemyslaw Niemiec is another rider with GC-style ability who should have a chance if he goes from afar; Damiano Cunego will be a strong card for Lampre-Merida to play as well. Alessandro De Marchi will love the constant up and down. Louis Meintjes has gotten stronger as this race has progressed, and he’ll have a nice opportunity if he can get into a move here on Stage 20. Romain Sicard, Mikel Landa, Wout Poels, Adam Yates and Esteban Chaves, Laurens Ten Dam, David Arroyo, Cadel Evans, and Mikel Nieve are others who might find success in a long-distance strike.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Alberto Contador | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Joaquim Rodriguez
Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The final preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 20, so stay tuned. Also, don’t miss VH’s coverage the GPs Quebec and Montreal! The Quebec post-race is already up, and the Montreal preview is coming soon!
The first half of the Canadian Grand Prix weekend is in the books, and with another race just two days away in Montreal and Worlds looming, today’s race in Quebec offers some important takeaways.
Pre-race favorite Simon Gerrans made the loudest statement, as if his 3rd place finish in the Vattenfall Cyclassics ahead of sprinting heavyweights like Mark Cavendish wasn’t already statement enough. He’s clearly on blazing form right now. In the post-race press conference, he stated that he’s not as strong as he was back in the Spring when he won Liege-Bastogne-Liege, but he certainly seems to be strong enough. His sprint has only gotten better and better over the past few years, and that will help him Sunday in Montreal, and at the end of the month in Ponferrada. The fact that he had to overcome a late mechanical makes his win even more impressive. On the whole, Orica-GreenEdge rode a brilliant race, doing the work required to keep the early break on a tight leash, letting others take over when possible, and then positioning Gerrans perfectly for the finale. Landing a 4th place result as well (with a surging Daryl Impey) was an added bonus.
Orica-GreenEdge put in the work when necessary, but they didn’t tire themselves out too much. In the end, Simon Gerrans was positioned perfectly for the final climb.
Runner-up Tom Dumoulin and 3rd-place finisher Ramunas Navardauskas also made statements in this race, outgunning several top contenders on their way to podium finishes. Dumoulin was frustrated with yet another 2nd place, but he’s put on quite a show in 2014, with a lot of help from a very much improved finishing kick. Navardauskas has taken his sprint to the next level this year as well. He was in the mix in several bunch finishes in the Tour de France (he won a stage with a late move as well), he won the Points Classification in the Tour of Alberta, and here in Quebec he charged uphill to the line ahead with a lot of power, despite having spent time in a late breakaway attempt just a few minutes prior. His reputation as a feisty underdog is rapidly giving way to a reputation as a real contender (still feisty though) on the hilly profiles. He was actually 8th in the 2012 World Championship Road Race, and though Lithuania won’t have the team strength of Spain or Belgium, Rui Costa showed last year that a nine rider squad isn’t necessarily required to win a rainbow jersey.
Speaking of Rui Costa, we did not really get a chance to see just how strong he is right now with his Worlds defense around the corner: he was immediately behind Arthur Vichot when the FDJ rider crashed in the final moments of the Grand Prix, and he had to brake hard to stay upright. Still, Costa was lurking at the front of the race as the peloton neared the finish line, suggesting that he’s feeling strong. The GP Montreal, which he won in 2011, should be another opportunity for him to land a result.
Greg Van Avermaet will be disappointed with a 5th place finish, but it’s still a strong result and it certainly shouldn’t hurt his hopes of playing a big role in the Belgian Worlds squad. Likely Belgian Worlds squad teammate Sep Vanmarcke should be very happy with his 7th place result in his debut run here in Quebec. At 199.1 kilometers, the race is a bit shorter than the grueling spring classics that suit Vanmarcke so well, but he was in the mix at the finish anyway. His sprint and his climbing legs are getting better and better: he put them on display today with an uphill charge to the line. Gianni Meersman was the other Belgian in the Top 10, landing 6th. He was really the only rider who would generally be considered a “sprinter” to have success on the day. The gradient at the finish suited the punchier riders a bit better; Meersman should be pleased with the result.
The incline leading up at the start/finish line proved too much for Alexander Kristoff, who could only manage a 21st place. That shouldn’t be all that surprising; Kristoff can survive a tough day in the saddle, but sprinting up a long sustained gradient isn’t really his forte. It is a strength for Tom-Jelte Slagter, however, whose form was a question mark coming into the race, but an 11th place performance suggests that he’s getting back into shape for the last few races of the season. Montreal will be another good opportunity for him.
Stay tuned for more coverage of Canada’s big weekend of cycling. The Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal is now less than two days away!
Fresh off a stage win in the Tour of Alberta, Belkin’s Sep Vanmarcke will line up for this weekend’s Grand Prix Cycliste de Québec and Grand Prix Cycliste de Montreal hoping to continue his successful run in North America. He has never ridden the GP Québec or GP Montréal, but he does have an impressive résumé in plenty of other hilly one-day events that reward aggressive racing. VH sat down with Vanmarcke ahead of the GP Québec.
The Québec parcours makes for a hard-to-predict race, but Vanmarcke feels that he and his team are well-suited to the event. “I like it, it’s different from last year’s, which will make it easier to control the race. I don’t know if that’s good for me or bad,” he told VH. “But we’ll see; it’s a really hard last three or four kilometers. I think I can get really far but we have to see. It’s really important to be in position the last time on the climbs.”
Belkin will most likely look to Vanmarcke and Bauke Mollema (who packs an underrated sprint) as team leaders in Québec. Vanmarcke’s current form should be an asset; he feels good about his level of fitness right now, noting that this time of year tends to be a good one for him.
“I’ve always been good in March and April, in the past, especially in the end of March and the beginning of April. End of June I’m always good. Beginning of July is also good. And then halfway through September I’m back,” Vanmarcke said.
With Worlds participation still up in the air and a strong team history in these races to uphold, Vanmarcke has plenty of motivation to make his first WorldTour events in Canada worth the journey. The upcoming World Championships are definitely in the back of Vanmarkce’s mind, giving him even more inspiration to do well here–especially with so many other big-name Belgians on the startlist also hoping to prove themselves before the team selection is made.
“Both [races] are important and of course I want to do well. I think it’s important, not for me . . . but for other people to see a result and that I’m ready,” he explained.
Vanmarcke feels like the strong season he has had already, with big results in the Classics and a very recent victory in the Tour of Alberta, should make enough of a statement about his readiness for Worlds as it is. Still, the Belgian roster for Ponferrada’s World Championship week isn’t completely decided yet, and more success in Québec or Montréal wouldn’t hurt.
“Last week I was good everywhere . . . and I won. That’s something to show my condition I think. You don’t win if the condition is not good. But yeah, it will be better if I get a good result here,” he said.
The World Championship Road Race isn’t the only thing on Vanmarcke’s mind, however. He is riding with Igor Decraene, one of Belgium’s most promising young cyclists who died suddenly at the beginning of the month, in his thoughts.
“All week I was with him in my mind. I made that goal that I really wanted to win for him, because I was really frustrated that I couldn’t be there at the funeral. Especially when his brother asked me if I was going to go there, I felt really bad. I really wanted to try something. I’m happy I won,” Vanmarcke said.
Mentally, to get a better sense of his form, and emotionally, as a chance to dedicate a major success to Decraene, winning in Alberta was an important result for Vanmarcke. It also gave him an opportunity to enjoy more aggressive riding, which isn’t something he always has a chance to do.
“It’s always important to win. I don’t win a lot. Classics are really hard to win, but I’m always getting closer. Stage races are sometimes so controlled and everything is going for a sprint, and then it’s a really hard final where I’m not capable of showing myself. . . . If you do something that might be stupid in other races though, there [in Alberta] it can be really good. In Alberta I was attacking all the time, every day,” he explained. “It’s impossible for me in, say, the Eneco Tour to try to be in an early breakaway. In Alberta . . . it’s different. It’s different racing, just full gas racing and there I’m better.”
Vanmarcke is approaching this weekend’s races in Québec and Montréal with a quiet confidence; he is reluctant to make any predictions about where he’ll end up but he does expect to perform.
“It’s the first time I’m here so I”m a little bit afraid to put numbers on it, but I think the race suits me and my condition is good, so I want to be there in the final and then it’s hard to say. I want to fight for the best places,” he said.
One major challenge facing Vanmarcke, and everyone else lining up here, is the strength of the startlist and the unpredictable nature of the profiles of both races.
“In these races it’s really difficult [to name a favorite]. There are really a lot. It suits riders of Flanders Classics. It suits riders of Ardennes Classics. And also stage race guys are here. I think I’ll have a chance for winning if I’m good, but Rui Costa, a whole different rider, is also thinking the same. It’s a big group of riders that can win, I think. Maybe thirty,” he said.
Fellow Belgian Greg Van Avermaet, also likely to play a role in the nation’s World Championships squad, is certainly among those favorites, as are a few other top-notch Belgian talents. Many of them have raced here several times before. With recent signs of form giving him a positive outlook, though, Vanmarcke is as ready as he can hope to be to make his debut in the GPs Québec and Montréal. He’ll know very soon just how well these races suit him, and if he does manage to land a good result, with the strong season he’s already had, he’ll have to feel good about his chances for a featured role in Ponferrada.
Stage 19: Salvaterra do Miño › Cangas do Morrazo – 180.5 km
Following a Stage 18 with a pair of Cat. 2s as the only categorized climbs on the menu (Fabio Aru landed the victory) comes Stage 19, where two Cat. 2s are, again, the only categorized climbs on the profile. Their placement will make for a different sort of race, however. One comes right in the middle of the stage, and the other is crested with 15 kilometers still to go before the finish line. It could be a launching pad for attacks, but only a very strong move will have a chance of surviving all the way to the line. Following that final categorized ascent comes a fast descent, a few kilometers of flat, a slightly bumpy stretch, and then a flat final kilometer.
The parcours will be too much for the pure sprinters to handle, but probably not difficult enough to offer much of an opportunity for a GC shakeup. That makes Stage 19 an excellent opportunity for the morning breakaway to get the victory, which of course means that the list of potential protagonists for stage success is quite long and varied.
Orica-GreenEdge is likely to be the biggest challenge that anyone who gets up the road early will have to face. An impending mountain stage and the final time trial will temper any motivation the GC teams might have had to put in a lot of work, and that will give the early aggressors a big advantage. OGE, however, will want to control the race, in an effort to bring about a sprint and one final chance for Michael Matthews to pick up another win in this Vuelta a España. If the morning move is reeled in, the Australian squad will have probably played a major role in making the catch. The final climb is hard, but Matthews has amazing climbing legs right now, and if it is indeed the main bunch that is contesting this stage victory, he’ll be the top favorite for what will likely be a reduced sprint finish. Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb might have a chance of holding on in that scenario but it will be a lot to ask. Fast-finishing Alejandro Valverde and Wilco Kelderman may be more likely challengers for stage honors if the breakaway is swallowed up before the end of the day. Joaquim Rodriguez, Daniel Moreno, Dan Martin, Samuel Sanchez, and Fabio Aru are others likely to be riding in (what’s left of) the main peloton who have the strength to survive the final climb and then get involved in a reduced sprint.
Philippe Gilbert is one of several versatile, punchy riders who could be looking to get into a long-distance move on Stage 19. If Gilbert sees an opportunity to break free from the pack early, he’ll be very dangerous in this sort of finale. Then again, he’ll be dangerous if he decides to stay with the pack as well. The ability to win in either scenario makes him a strong contender here.
Luis Leon Sanchez, who, unless he abandons the race for some reason, will win the Vuelta’s King of the Mountains classification, is another rider who could find success from afar here. He’s ridden well in the hunt for the KOM jersey so far, and he’d love to add a stage win to go with that achievement. Strong in a solo move or in a sprint, he’s well-suited to this profile.
So is Ryder Hesjedal, who already has a breakaway stage win in this Vuelta. Should he get into the day’s move, he’ll be a top contender with this very steep late challenge and with the great form he has shown in the past few days.
Katusha’s Alexandr Kolobnev has been out front in this race before, and, riding for a team that really should have won something in this race already, he’ll be motivated to put it on the line as opportunities for victories are running out. He’s very dangerous in a reduced sprint.
Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi, Lampre-Merida’s Filippo Pozzato and Damiano Cunego, Astana’s Alexey Lutsenko and Mikel Landa, OGE’s Adam Yates, Trek’s Fabio Felline and Jasper Stuyven, OPQS’s Wout Poels, Lotto Belisol’s Adam Hansen, and Europcar’s Romain Sicard are others who could be in the mix should the morning breakaway go the distance on Stage 19.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Michael Matthews | 2. Philippe Gilbert | 3. Luis Leon Sanchez
