Tag: 2014

Giacomo Nizzolo “Really, Really, Really Motivated” for Plouay’s GP Ouest-France after Runner-up Performance at Vattenfall Cyclassics

Fresh off of a 2nd-place finish at the Vattenfall Cyclassics in Hamburg, Giacomo Nizzolo of Trek Factory Racing is looking forward to having another shot at a big win in the upcoming GP Ouest-France, where he was 2nd in 2013. Nizzolo’s 2014 campaign has had its gratifying moments and its frustrating ones, and plenty of moments that have been a bit of both, and he took a few minutes out of his midweek preparation to talk to VH about his season so far and his expectations for Sunday’s race in Plouay.

Nizzolo started off the year strong with a victory in the Tour de San Luis, but soon after, he suffered a broken collarbone as a result of a training crash. The painful injury would be just the first in a series of difficult health issues that have hampered him on and off throughout the year. Nizzolo described the persistent challenge of being slowed by injury and illness this season when his form has otherwise been very strong as “one of the hardest” of his career.

“I had great training camps in the winter and I was in really good shape at the beginning of the season and then unluckily I broke my collarbone. I think that the first part of the season could have been really successful for me, but then with the crash everything was gone,” he explained to VeloHuman. “And then, mentally and physically, it was really hard to get my shape back for the Giro.

“I came to the Dauphiné to try to get a victory after the Giro because I knew I was in great shape and normally after a big tour I’m good. So I went there, and then on the only stage for the sprinters, with sixty kilometers to go, I crashed and I broke a bone in my shoulder. I only discovered the fracture twenty days later. I thought it was something with the tendon and I planned some therapy to try to treat the tendon, but I kept moving the shoulder and it was definitely not [feeling] the right way.

“Then, I stopped, I took a break, and then tried to work hard for the second part of the season. I went to altitude again, I came down, I went to Wallonie and got the stage victory. But still I felt that something was wrong, and I got this virus. I was feeling it actually until the Eneco Tour last week. Even last week I was not feeling so good.”

He finally started to feel better in time for Hamburg’s Vattenfall Cyclassics, where he put in a strong ride to finish 2nd behind Alexander Kristoff in a sprint. His sixth 2nd-place performance on the year (he notched four of them in the Giro d’Italia), it was certainly something to be proud of, but at the same time, a frustrating result. Nizzolo acknowledged that it is hard to feel satisfied when he finishes a race as runner-up.

“I’m disappointed. Sometimes, third is much better than second because when you’re second you’re so close to victory and you’re missing really only a few things to win,” he explained. “When you’re third you can say, ‘Well there was one guy stronger than me even if the winner was not there.’ So I am a little bit frustrated. But on the other side, when I think about it days later, I say, ‘Okay, in the end, what can I say? I did my best.’ . . . Sometimes I make mistakes, but for example in Hamburg, this was the best I could bring home, especially when you think that I was coming from a week that was not the best. On one side, you’re disappointed, but on the other you can be proud to be there.”

Frustrating though they may be, the near misses don’t stop Nizzolo from working hard to find areas of improvement. In the Giro, for example, he tried to fine tune his timing with each finish.

“In the Giro I tried different ways to win the stage. One time I waited, but he [Nacer Bouhanni] started [his sprint]. Other times, I tried to anticipate the sprint and start before him. You look at the videos and you look at what maybe you did wrong and what you can make better and, for sure, you can learn something. . . . When you lose you can always learn something. Even when you win. When I win, I say sometimes, ‘This could be better.’ Every time, you have to learn something.”

He now has his sights set on the upcoming GP Ouest-France in Plouay, a major objective for the remainder of his 2014 racing calendar. Hillier than the Vattenfall Cyclassics, the GP Ouest-France came down to a sprint last year, but it’s a tough event that does encourage riders to attempt longer-range moves.

“Plouay was one of my targets from the top of the season,” Nizzolo said. “Hamburg and Plouay are some of my favorite races. Sunday in Plouay is harder than Hamburg, but it’s a race that I like (like Hamburg) so I will go there really, really, really motivated and I will have the maximum support from the team, as I had in Hamburg. In Hamburg I had the support from the team even when I was not in the best shape. So in Plouay I will have everybody helping me and we will go for it.”

The race is still a few days away, but he already has a sense of who his main rivals might be.

“I think, more or less, it will be the same competitors as Hamburg, though it’s harder and the climb is closer to the finish, so guys like Van Avermaet, Trentin, Albasini, Gerrans . . . they could make some action at the end so that for us as sprinters it will be harder to get results,” he said.

After the GP Ouest-France, Nizzolo expects to take on the Brussels Cycling Classic and the Tour de l’Eurométropole, among other races. With the World Championship Road Race not far off, Nizzolo acknowledges that selection to the Italian team is something he thinks about, but he isn’t sure how well the parcours suits him.

“I checked the circuit a few months ago and it’s hard. The climbs are hard but there is not much recovery between them . . . and there are more than 4000 meters of altitude, so it will be hard. For a guy like me, I would need to be in the best shape to be there. So honestly at the moment I will go for Plouay and then we will make a check and discuss,” he said.

Looking beyond the 2014 season, Nizzolo is signed with Trek through 2016 after renewing with the team in the middle of this year. The team isn’t laying any specific goals for these next few seasons at his feet, but Nizzolo has targets in mind.

“I don’t think we have particular goals, but I see and they see probably that I improve every year a little bit. So we will try to go for stages in the big tours and then a semi-classic like Hamburg or Plouay,” he said.

On strong form and, at least for the moment, unhampered by illness or injury, Nizzolo will have an opportunity at meeting one of those goals in four days at the GP Ouest-France in Plouay. Narrowly missing out on a win there last year, and likely to face some of the same rivals that contested the recent Vattenfall Cyclassics, Nizzolo will have that little bit of extra familiarity with the situation on the road as the day nears its conclusion, which will certainly be a useful asset in his attempt to reach the next step on the podium this time around.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Jérémy Jännick.

August 27, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 5 Preview

Stage 5: Priego de Córdoba › Ronda – 180 km

After a Stage 4 won convincingly in a bunch sprint by John Degenkolb, Stage 5 of the Vuelta a España looks likely to be another one for the bunch gallopers. The pack will set out from Priego de Córdoba and then take on 150 kilometers without a single categorized climb before reaching the bottom of a lone Category 3. It’s a long uphill ride at 12.5 kilometers, but the average gradient is only a bit over 3%. From the top, it’s about 15 kilometers, mostly on a gentle downhill and without too many twists or turns, to the town of Ronda. The finishing straight is a little over half a kilometer in length, and very subtly uphill.

With a mountain stage looming, the sprinters will hope for one more chance at glory on Stage 5 before things start to get too difficult on the road. Their teams shouldn’t have too much trouble keeping things under control on this profile, and the day’s solitary categorized challenge isn’t particularly steep; it will be hard for anyone to get enough separation on the climb to hold out over a long flat run to the line. That said, it’s likely that some of the heavier sprinters could but put under a bit of pressure if the pace is high going over the Cat. 3; it’s not a legbreaker but riding on an incline for over 10 kilometers in this heat is not a comfortable trip for anyone.

Given the likelihood of a bunch finish, Stage 5 should come down to a high-speed showdown between Nacer Bouhanni and John Degenkolb. With a slight gradient in the final few hundred meters and fewer technical challenges in the run-in than were present on Stage 2 (challenges that might give the tenacious Bouhanni the positioning advantage), this looks like a good opportunity for Degenkolb to challenge the young Frenchman. Degenkolb will need every ounce of power he has, but he blew away the field on Stage 4, showing just how strong he is right now.

Michael Matthews is a fast finisher in any scenario and the very slight incline in the finale could give him an edge here. Astana’s Andrea Guardini had a great run-up to this Vuelta and in a sprinters’ battle royale, he’s a contender. Belkin’s Moreno Hofland is still gaining experience in the positioning game, but he beat both Degenkolb and Bouhanni in this year’s Paris-Nice and he looks strong right now, and Stage 5’s finish should suit him.

Lampre-Merida’s Roberto Ferrari is not one of the more versatile quick men in the pack, but if he can make it over the Cat. 3 without too much trouble, he should be in the mix as well for stage honors. In Maximiliano Richeze and Filippo Pozzato, Lampre does have an impressive squad of supporters or possible alternatives. IAM Cycling has a pair of nice options in Matteo Pelucchi and Stage 4 2nd place finisher Vicente Reynes. The list of other outside contenders for what is likely to be a sprint finish also includes Tom Boonen, Gerald Ciolek, Yauheni Hutarovich, Jasper Stuyven, Jens Debusschere, and Lloyd Mondory.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. John Degenkolb | 2. Nacer Bouhanni | 3. Michael Matthews

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 5, so stay tuned.

-Dane Cash

August 26, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 4 Preview

Stage 4: Mairena del Alcor › Córdoba – 164.7 km

The third stage of the Vuelta a España saw Michael Matthews outsprinting some real GC talents (among them, Dan Martin and Joaquim Rodriguez) to take a victory and the red jersey. Stage 4 is another in which the presence of some late uphill challenges could make things interesting. The stage starts out very flat, and continues that way for over a hundred kilometers. The first notable topograhic feature of the day, a Category 3 climb, will be crested at around kilometer 110. Then it’s another flat section before a Cat. 2 of about 8 km at an average gradient a little under 5% that kicks off at approximately kilometer 130. From the top there are only about 25 kilometers left on the stage, which will involve a flat section after the climb, a high-speed descent, and then a flat run-in to Córdoba and a very slightly uphill finishing drag.

As was the case on the third stage, there are several versatile fast-finishers here whose teams will be interested in keeping the day’s break in check for a sprint. The Category 2 climb won’t make it easy to control the race, but a concerted effort at organization will have a good chance at keeping any long-range hopefuls from getting too far ahead, especially with a few kilometers of flat before the finish. A group finish seems like a strong possibility, though the field may be reduced by the time the pack passes under the flamme rouge.

Nacer Bouhanni put in a very impressive ride on Stage 3 to finish 8th, ahead of several climbing powerhouses. His performance on the late incline shows considerable improvement in the climbing department, and while it won’t be an easy task to hold on over the Category 2 test on Stage 4, it would be unwise to count Bouhanni out the way he’s riding right now. If he makes it over the top with the pack, or at least close enough behind them to latch back on before the finish, he’ll be the odds-on favorite for the sprint.

While Bouhanni delivered a surprise performance on the third stage, John Degenkolb of Giant-Shimano struggled on the final slope. Bad days are a reality in this sport, though, and the challenges on the menu for Stage 4 look to be of the sort that Degenkolb can typically handle. If he holds on, and if this comes down to a sprint, he has few rivals in this race in terms of top speed.

Red jersey wearer Michael Matthews will hope the injection of uphill pace on the Cat. 2 will drop the purer sprinters. He’s obviously on top form now, and if the group is whittled down even a little, he’ll be a favorite in a reduced bunch.

Peter Sagan would be an obvious candidate for victory, but he does not appear to be interested in contesting stage wins in this race. Oscar Gatto seems to be the Cannondale’s designated rider, and this is a good profile for him.

Belkin’s Moreno Hofland is well-suited to sprints that follow hillier days. Teammate Paul Martens looked strong on Stage 3 as well. Lloyd Mondory is another versatile quick finisher who put in a good result (7th) on the third stage. Tom Boonen, Gerald Ciolek, Daniele Bennati, Jasper Stuyven, Filippo Pozzato, Philippe Gilbert, and Nathan Haas are others with nice finishing kicks who prefer the more difficult days, while Jens Debusschere, Andrea Guardini, Roberto Ferrari, Yauheni Hutarovich, and Matteo Pelucchi will all be among the top contenders if they can survive the bumpy journey to the line.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nacer Bouhanni | 2. John Degenkolb | 3. Michael Matthews

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 4, so stay tuned.

-Dane Cash

August 25, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 3 Preview

Stage 3: Cádiz › Arcos de la Frontera – 197.8 km

After a very flat second stage won, somewhat predictably, by Nacer Bouhanni, the peloton will take on a moderately bumpy Stage 3. The riders will enjoy approximately 80 kilometers of flat roads after they set out from the start (on an aircraft carrier, no less) in Cádiz before taking on a few hills in the middle of the stage. Following the journey up and over a series of Cat. 3 climbs, the riders will begin a long descent. After things flatten out, a short, uncategorized bump must be overcome with roughly 10 km to go, followed by a flat stretch that will last until a little bit after the peloton reaches the 2-km-to-go mark. Then things get interesting. The road kicks upward for most of the remainder of the journey to the line, only flattening out in the last few hundred meters. It’s not a categorized climb, but it’s enough of an incline to give the lighter riders a significant advantage. When the pack hits the slope, those who specialize in these sorts of ascents will drive a furious pace to put pressure on their heavier rivals. Some riders could try to launch their bid for glory early while the gradient is high, while the less able climbers will hope to hold on until things flatten out.

The parcours of Stage 3 should favor the more versatile fast finishers, the riders who are at their best sprinting for victory up a bit of an incline and at the end of a harder day in the saddle. An intermediate profile like this might look breakaway-friendly, but there are plenty of well-rounded quick men on this startlist who will find this stage well-suited to their talents, and their motivation to keep this together for a group finish will be high. A long, late flat section will help with a chase. The first uncategorized bump in the final 20 km might see a few attacks, but it’s not a difficult enough challenge to be a great launchpad, and it will be hard to stay away with another flat stretch to follow. The likeliest outcome here seems to be a group reaching the last uphill drag mostly intact to fight it out over the final two kilometers.

It’s hard to draw up a better profile for Peter Sagan than this. The climbs in the middle of Stage 3 will not be a problem for him, but some of his rivals for a sprint could suffer. Likely arriving relatively fresh at the finish line, he’ll appreciate the last uphill kick at the end of the day; he’s always fast, but his talents should be especially apparent in the fight for position that will occur in the last kilometer when the road is at a bit of a gradient. The Slovakian star doesn’t come without question marks though. He has said that he’s in this Vuelta a España to prepare for the World Championships, and he did a rare turn as a leadout man in Stage 2 rather than chasing victory himself. Stage 3 looks like a golden opportunity but his motivation is uncertain. Oscar Gatto is a decent alternative in place of Sagan should Cannondale decide to go in that direction.

John Degenkolb is another rider with a particular knack for this sort of profile. His top speed rivals Sagan’s, and unlike many other big-name sprinters of that caliber, he doesn’t lose his edge when the road tilts upward. If things hold together for a sprint at the end of Stage 3, Degenkolb will have a great chance at victory, and even if some of the punchier types try to create separation on the late incline, he’s shown before that he is strong enough to latch onto the right wheel to avoid being left behind when the road tilts upward.

Michael Matthews will love this parcours. His only complaint might be that Stage 3 isn’t bumpy enough in the middle of the day to cause more problems for other fast finishers, but either way, he’ll be a top favorite with an uphill stretch just before the line. His climbing legs have been amazing this year.

The final hundred meters may be flat, but the battle to be in front on the last uphill section will be critical for anyone hoping to take this stage, and nobody can charge uphill quite like BMC’s Philippe Gilbert. He will go full gas on the incline section and hope to get enough of an advantage to hold on for the win when things flatten out.

Alejandro Valverde of Movistar is another rider who can rely on his explosiveness to put space between himself and some of the heavier sprinters on the late climb. Katusha’s Daniel Moreno is on strong form for this Vuelta and could try the same, as might his teammates Joaquim Rodriguez and Alexandr Kolobnev.

Trek’s Fabian Cancellara is typically strong in a finish like this, but don’t count out his very impressive 22-year-old teammate Jasper Stuyven, 4th on Stage 2 and capable of handling a few hills. Fabio Felline crashed in the second stage, but normally this finish would suit him too. Filippo Pozzato, Daniel Martin, Moreno Hofland, Anthony Roux, Nathan Haas, Gerald Ciolek, Luis Leon Sanchez, Tom Boonen, and even Cadel Evans are others who could find Stage 3 to their liking. The profile may be a bit bumpy for Nacer Bouhanni, but his team did a great job taking care of him in the finale of the second stage and it’s not out of the question that he makes it to this finish in a good place.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. John Degenkolb | 2. Peter Sagan | 3. Michael Matthews

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 3, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall race preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

August 24, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 2 Preview

Stage 2: Algeciras › San Fernando – 174.4 km

With the opening TTT (won by Movistar) now in the rear mirror, the Vuelta a España gets into road racing proper in its second stage. After an early Cat. 3, Stage 2 offers over 160 kilometers of racing without a single categorized climb. It’s hard to see anything other than a sprint decided this stage, though a few factors could add some excitement to the day. For one, this route runs along coastal roads susceptible to high winds. The first road stage of a Grand Tour is always nervous enough as it is, and things will be all the more stressful if the winds pick up.

What’s more, the finale is a tricky one, with a succession of hard turns (right, left, right, and right again into the finishing straight) inside the last kilometer and a half. A technical sprint run-in on the first mass start day of the race could be a recipe for crashes, and the GC men will have their fingers crossed that they can simply make it to the Stage 2 finish line unscathed.

The fastest of the fast men will be the favorites here. Giro Points Classification winner Nacer Bouhanni has elite top-end speed and would be dangerous enough in a drag race on a long straightaway, but he really shines in a hectic finale like this. His ability to position himself perfectly even without a great leadout, combined with some amazing acceleration, puts him at the top of the list of contenders.

Cannondale’s Peter Sagan is another rider who is quite capable in a technical finish. His versatility shouldn’t take away from the fact that he’s one of the best sprinters in the field. Coming into the race, form and motivation were both question marks; it’s unclear what he is hoping to get out of this Vuelta, which he is using to prepare for the World Championships. However, after Cannondale’s strong TTT, a top result on Stage 2 could put him into the leader’s jersey, and that should drive him to go for this. He has the ability to win this stage.

Giant-Shimano’s John Degenkolb shouldn’t lack for motivation to hunt a victory here. He has looked sharp in sprint finishes this year, but was unable to pick up a victory in the Tour de France. With a top-notch leadout to guide him through the last few kilometers, he should be in the mix.

Michael Matthews of Orica-GreenEdge had a terrific Vuelta in 2013, taking two stage victories. Known for his versatile skillset, he is also just plain fast, and even on a flat course he’s a contender.

Astana’s Andrea Guardini has been on fire this month, winning twice in Denmark and then picking up a WorldTour victory in the Eneco Tour. He will have another opportunity here on Stage 2 of the Vuelta. Lampre can choose between the speedy Maximiliano Richeze and Roberto Ferrari. OPQS has Tom Boonen, who becomes even more dangerous on a windy day when his team’s classics prowess can be put to good use. The longlist of others who should be in the mix includes AG2R’s Yauheni Hutarovich, Belkin’s Moreno Hofland, Garmin-Sharp’s Nathan Haas, IAM Cycling’s Matteo Pelucchi, Lotto Belisol’s Jens Debusschere, MTN Qhubeka’s Gerald Ciolek, and even BMC’s Philippe Gilbert.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Nacer Bouhanni | 2. John Degenkolb | 3. Peter Sagan

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 2, so stay tuned. In case you missed it, the overall race preview can be found here.

-Dane Cash

August 23, 2014
Vattenfall Cyclassics 2014 Preview

While some of the pro peloton is in Spain taking on the year’s final Grand Tour, a number of other riders will be in Hamburg to take on the Vattenfall Cyclassics. The first of several late summer circuit races on the WorldTour calendar, the event offers the sprinting heavyweights a rare opportunity to take a one-day victory at the highest level. It’s a lengthy race at 247.2 kilometers, and there are a few bumps along the way, but it almost invariably ends with a bunch gallop.

The Route

The race starts and finishes in Hamburg, with a route that will take the peloton in several loops through the city and its outskirts. The terrain is not particularly undulating throughout, but it does become a bit more challenging as the race wears on. After a long and mostly flat first half, the riders face four climbs of the Waseberg, the only real uphill test that must be overcome before the finish. It’s not even a full kilometer to the top, but after a long day, repeated trips up the steep climb will wear down some of the heavier riders. Generally, the Waseberg is the site of attacks, and though in recent editions they’ve all been closed down before the line (which comes roughly 15 km after the last ascent), the potential for a late game of cat and mouse does make for a hectic finale.

Weather has played a role in this race in the past, and it may again in the 2014 edition of the Vattenfall Cyclassics. There is a possibility of rain and a likelihood of high winds in the forecast, which could make this journey from start to finish a bit more stressful.

The Contenders

With a sprint as the most probable outcome, a fast finish will be the most important asset for anyone to be considered a main contender here. Endurance to survive a long day in the saddle and arrive at the finale fresh will help. The big-name sprinters, especially those who are comfortable sprinting after 240 kilometers, will be the top favorites. Last year’s winner John Degenkolb fit the bill perfectly, but he is in Spain for the Vuelta. However, there are plenty of other top quick men on this startlist (the field is probably even stronger than it was last year) to battle it out for the win.

Katusha’s Alexander Kristoff was 3rd in the 2013 edition of the race, and given his impeccable form right now, he will have an excellent opportunity to improve on that this year. The Milano-Sanremo winner is at his best after a lengthy race, he doesn’t mind a few bumps on the way to the line, and his top speed has reached new heights this season, making him among the most likely winners of the race. Bad weather will only increase his chances. The very quick Alexey Tsatevich makes for a powerful teammate.

Andre Greipel took 2nd place for the second consecutive time in 2013 and he’ll again be a strong contender in 2014. He is one of the fastest sprinters in the world, and he has made it through this parcours to the seemingly inevitable bunch finish in the past. However, he’s been a bit of a mystery over the past two months, at times showing off the blazing top speed for which he is well-known, and at other times widely missing the mark in races that seemed to suit him. He’ll need to put it all together to come away with the win here, and he hasn’t had a perfect run-up to race after withdrawing from the Eneco Tour due to illness. The possibility of rain won’t help either. Still, if he is feeling good and positions himself well, he’ll be hard to beat.

Marcel Kittel is the best pure sprinter on this startlist, with the Tour success to prove it. In a straight contest of speed, he is very rarely beaten, especially with the help of the Giant-Shimano leadout. However, as impressive as Kittel is as a sprinter, he doesn’t have the same versatility as teammate and 2013 winner John Degenkolb; he struggles with even minor challenges in a profile, and after 245 kilometers, he may be a different rider entirely from the speed machine that won the sprint down the Champs-Elysees. He’s certainly a contender, but he needs to prove that he can handle long days with a few bumps along the way before he is favored to win a race like this. The team may rely on Luka Mezgec as a capable alternative. Mezgec has taken his game to a new level in 2014, collecting win after win in the spring and showing good form lately in the Tour de Pologne and the Eneco Tour. He is a bit more capable than Kittel on the tougher parcours. Simon Geschke is another nice alternative; should this race be more selective than it usually is, he’s a dangerous rider in a reduced sprint.

OPQS brings a team loaded with firepower, with sprinting star Mark Cavendish leading the way. He’ll be eager to reassert himself in a bunch gallop after his early exit from the Tour de France, and he’s obviously among the very best sprinters here, with only Kittel and Greipel as potential rivals for pure speed. Still, while he’s a bit more likely to make it to the line than the aforementioned Kittel, there is a difference between surviving and arriving to the finale with fresh legs, as this year’s Milano-Sanremo (where several riders outmatched him even in a sprint) showed. Gianni Meersman is a terrific alternative if necessary, having shown brilliant form at the recent Tour de Wallonie, and Tour de l’Ain. The versatile Meersman should have no problem at all with the profile or the length of the race, and he may have more left in the tank than others by the end of the day. The same is true for Matteo Trentin, who will be yet another option for OPQS. Mark Renshaw, who showed in the Tour de France that he still has a lot of speed, deserves a mention too.

FDJ’s Arnaud Demare took the biggest win of his career here in 2012, and he has the skillset to fight for the overall victory again this year. Apart from a forgettable, illness-marred Tour de France campaign, he’s had a strong season so far, and he’ll be motivated to show that he’s back to his best in this race. 2nd in Gent-Wevelgmen in March, Demare is especially strong after a long day in the saddle, making him a top favorite for victory.

Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo was 3rd in the 2012 Vattenfall Cyclassics. He’s had an odd year, with quite a collection of nice sprinting performances but only two victories (in the Tour de San Luis and the recent Tour de Wallonie). Timing has been a bit of an issue on a number of occasions, and this race’s often chaotic finale won’t help with that, but the route and profile suit him perfectly, and Trek has a fast group of riders in attendance to strengthen his chances. Given the possibility that the likes of Kittel, Cavendish, and Greipel may not make it all the way to the line with the lead group, Nizzolo could contend for the win.

Lampre-Merida’s Sacha Modolo has shown flashes of brilliance in 2014, but he’s missed out on several races that looked to be good opportunities as well. Crashes haven’t helped. If he can hang on here, he’s extremely fast and should be in the mix for the victory. Europcar’s Bryan Coquard has won some smaller races this season and will hope to put his strong finish on display on a bigger stage in Hamburg. Sky’s Ben Swift would probably prefer a few more hills on the profile, but he’s a good sprinter in any scenario, and the length of the race alone could give him an advantage (like it did in Milano-Sanremo this year, where he was 3rd); much the same could be said for his teammate Edvald Boasson Hagen, who, though he has had a year to forget, did win this very race back in 2011. NetApp-Endura’s Sam Bennett is another very quick rider who becomes more dangerous when the route to the finish line has a few challenges along the way. Movistar’s JJ Lobato, BMC’s Thor Hushovd, Garmin-Sharp’s Tyler Farrar (winner of both the 2009 and 2010 edition), Orica-GreenEdge’s Matt Goss, Tinkoff-Saxo’s Matti Breschel, and AG2R’s Davide Appollonio are others who could contend in a sprint.

Despite a historical precedent of bunch finishes deciding this race, a few teams have brought some talented riders, several of them familiar classics specialists, who will try to make things interesting by applying pressure as the long day nears its finish. BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet, OGE’s Simon Gerrans, Michael Albasini, and Jens Keukeleire, Astana’s Enrico Gasparotto, and Belkin’s Sep Vanmarcke and Lars Boom look to be the likeliest protagonists for a late move or success in a sprint from a small group.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Alexander Kristoff
Podium: Arnaud Demare, Giacomo Nizzolo
Other Top Contenders: Andre Greipel, Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, Gianni Meersman, Luka Mezgec, Sacha Modolo, Ben Swift

-Dane Cash

Photo by youkeys.

August 23, 2014