Tag: 2015

Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 17 Preview

Stage 17: Tirano › Lugano – 134km

The fact that a climber (like stage winner Mikel Landa) would win Stage 16 was obvious from the profile alone, but the Stage 17 profile could be deceiving. It’s a mostly flat stage, with only a single categorized climb on offer (a very early Cat. 3) and just 134km of racing from start to finish (in Lugano, Switzerland). At first glance, it looks like a great day for the sprinters.

But we’re now into the Giro’s final week, and there will be some tired sprinters in the bunch. What’s more, the peloton just took on a brutal day of climbing, and there are more brutal days of climbing ahead. Combine those facts with the fact that the Giro peloton has already displayed an inability to control the breakaway on what appear to be clear sprinters’ days and you have a recipe for another potential opportunity to for the aggressors to steal one from the quick men.

I see it is a 50-50 proposition on this stage. So many sprinters have left the race that it will be harder for those remaining to do the job of keeping the breakaway controlled, but at the same time, this profile is one that should allow them to do so if they manage to stay organized. In any case, at least in terms of naming favorites, the three top sprinters left in this race are certainly stronger individual favorites than any one rider who trying his luck in the crapshoot that is getting into a breakaway on a stage like this. If it does come down to a sprint, a challenging finale with a few late corners will make this an exciting, if somewhat dangerous, stage finish.

Giacomo Nizzolo nearly came away with the elusive victory he has so long sought in the Giro d’Italia on Stage 13, but Sacha Modolo closed the door on him in the final 100 meters with a strong kick and a not-altogether-noble swerve toward the barriers. Still, Nizzolo looked quite strong there despite a complete lack of leadout support in the final 2km, and he’s shown several times in his career an ability to position himself well in a technical finale, even if he doesn’t always time his subsequent sprint kick successfully. This stage suits him, and he’s strong right now; if the breakers are caught, he has a great chance to finally get that win. Sacha Modolo meanwhile, with the powerful Lampre-Merida leadout to guide him to the line, has his own great chance here, a chance to double up on Giro victories. His teammates did a brilliant job to put him in position to win Stage 13, and they’ll be eager to do so again here. He’s looking strong right now too.

Elia Viviani obviously looked great on Stage 2, but since then he hasn’t been quite as impressive. Still, he should be right up there in terms of top speed with the remaining sprinters left in the race and therefore will be among the favorites in a potential sprint here on Stage 17.

Luka Mezgec has shown flashes of that sort of speed in the past but he’s been a bit lackluster in the sprints in this Giro. Giant-Alpecin is nearing the finish of a Grand Tour in which they’ve achieved very little, however, which could motivate them to perform here before the race goes back into the high mountains where they will have little opportunity to impact the events. Alessandro Petacchi, JJ Lobato, Moreno Hofland, and Davide Appollonio are other options for a potential sprint finish.

If a breakaway goes clear, strong engines Sylvain Chavanel (of Swiss team IAM Cycling) and Silvan Diller (of Switzerland) will be among the top riders to keep an eye on. Philippe Gilbert, Fabio Felline, Giovanni Visconti, and Patrick Gretsch are others on the list of riders who might have the energy to get up the road after a hard day in the mountains, though the list of riders with a chance here if Stage 17 does go to the breakaway is almost endless.

VeloHuman Stage 17 Favorites

1. Giacomo Nizzolo | 2. Sacha Modolo | 3. Elia Viviani

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 17 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 26, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 16 Preview

Stage 16: Pinzolo › Aprica – 177km

The Giro peloton took a rest day after a challenging Stage 15 won by Mikel Landa, but things will get hectic again immediately on Stage 16. The riders will take on the first of five categorized climbs right from the startline. There is practically not a single meter of flat on this stage. After the opening Cat. 2, the riders will take on a fast descent and then another Cat. 2, and then a very long descent into a Cat. 3, roughly the midpoint of the stage. From there it’s another descent into the foot of the brutal Cat. 1 Passo del Mortirolo climb. 11.8 km at a 10.9% average gradient, it’s an extremely steep road to the top, one that will likely see the stronger riders putting on the pressure and blowing the peloton to pieces.

Over the top of the Mortirolo, the riders will take on another long descent into the foot of a Cat. 3 climb to the finish line. It’s long at 14km but not particularly steep with a 3.5% average gradient.

Five categorized ascents on the parcours will make Stage 16 a major target for the Giro’s blue jersey hopefuls. The fact that the climbing starts right away will benefit the uphill specialists trying to get up the road. With the constant up and down likely to hinder any organized chase efforts, this will be a great opportunity for the breakaway riders, though regardless of who is in the lead group, it should provide an opportunity for the GC riders to battle it out as well.

The Mortirolo will offer opportunities to attack but it’s still a very long way to go from the top. With the low gradient on the final climb, a small group could come to the line together, whether it’s a small group of breakaway riders or a small group of survivors from the pack. Carlos Betancur has plenty of incentive to get into the breakaway on this stage in pursuit of KOM Points, and he’s shown an ability to get up the road so far in this race. He has a very fast finish, and if he’s in the lead group at the end of the day, he’ll be very dangerous on this stage.

Beñat Intxausti will of course be looking to get into the breakaway in defense of his KOM jersey. He’s not as fast at the line as others, but he’s got a powerful engine and might be able to ride others off his wheel in pursuit of this stage win. Movistar teammate Giovanni Visconti, on the other hand, does have a bit of pop for a fast finish, and could be in the mix if he’s allowed up the road (nearly 10 minutes down on GC), as might Igor Anton and Ion Izagirre.

Ryder Hesjedal should like the look of the profile and his chances from the breakaway. If he can get up the road, he’ll have a nice chance at victory in Stage 16.

Stefano Pirazzi, Steven Kruijswijk, Esteban Chaves, Ilnur Zakarin, Franco Pellizotti, Sebastien Reichenbach, Mikel Nieve, Vasil Kiryienka, Darwin Atapuma, Jan Polanc, and Damiano Cunego are others on the list of strong candidates for long-range success here.

If this comes down to a select group of GC favorites instead of the long-range attackers, this could come down to the fastest finishers still surviving among the all-rounders. Damiano Caruso packs a bit of punch, as does Fabio Aru, who would probably like to pick up more stage wins in the race even if he can’t beat Alberto Contador for the pink jersey. Caruso will have the added benefit of probably getting some leeway to go up the road late in the race if he sees an opportunity, as he’s far enough out of GC contention to not threaten Contador’s pink jersey. Speaking of Contador, he obviously can’t be counted out on a stage with a climb as challenging as the Mortirolo, even if it does come so far from the finish.

VeloHuman Stage 16 Favorites

1. Carlos Betancur | 2. Giovanni Visconti | 3. Fabio Aru

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 16 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 25, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: Giro d’Italia 2015 Show, Part III

Episode 14: Giro d’Italia 2015 Show, Part III
With the 2015 Giro d’Italia nearing its conclusion, the Recon Ride delivers its third and final Giro-oriented episode.

[powerpress]

Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm and Dane Cash of VeloHuman cover the latest action at the Giro d’Italia, and look ahead to what’s next in the final week of racing.

Photo by ENGIE Italia (CC).

May 25, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 14 Preview

Stage 14: Treviso › Valdobbiadene – 59.4kkm

Sacha Modolo’s victory on Stage 13 was not too surprising, but the carnage near the finish that dropped Alberto Contador (slightly) and Richie Porte (significantly) down the GC leaderboard was. Two weeks into the Giro d’Italia, there have been several days with major GC consequences that didn’t seem likely to have much of an effect on the overall race at first. Nevertheless, Stage 14 could shake things up more than any of those days have so far.

At nearly 60km, this is one long race against the clock. The profile could be split into two halves. The first 30km of the stage are quite flat, and will favor the larger engines in the peloton. The second half of the stage is a bit hillier. Things start off with a roughly 5km climb at an approximately 4% average gradient. Then comes a descent and another flat stretch, before another ascent into a rolling final few kilometers.

The sheer length of this parcours, and the lack of any serious climbs (especially in the first 30km) will put the ITT powerhouses in their element.

The Giro GC conversation happens to have several top all-rounders with elite time trialing skills who should thrive even on the flats, and in the absence of chrono specialists at the level of a Tony Martin or a Tom Domoulin, this stage is likely to come down to the pink jersey hunters.

Richie Porte is certainly among the favorites, given his excellent time trialing skills. Two days ago, I would have named him the heavy favorite here. However, both his morale and his body (his knee, in particular) appeared to be affected by the Stage 13 crash. 60km is a long time to be in a very specific position, and if Porte isn’t feeling great, or isn’t feeling particularly motivated now that he’s so far off track in the GC conversation, he could easily falter. It’s very hard to tell just how he’ll do. If he’s at or near his best in spite of his recent troubles, he should win.

Rigoberto Urán won last year’s Giro time trial, and he’s developed into an impressive chrono talent over the last few years. However, his form has not been at quite the level he probably hoped for in this race, and he recently crashed. Just as is the case with Porte, it’s hard to say how that will affect his chances, but judging from the riding he’s done since going down on Stage 12, I don’t think his fall had that much of an effect on him, and I do think that he’s been completely focused on this opportunity since the start of the race, so I’d imagine he’ll do pretty well here in Stage 14.

Alberto Contador has been a strong time trialist for a while, but he’s been stellar in the ITTs over the past 12 months or so. It’s an area of his game that may have been overlooked. In multiple recent face-offs that he’s had with Chris Froome in which most expected the Briton to put time into the Spaniard, Contador has come out on top. Unfortunately from a prognostication standpoint, Contador has taken a physical beating in this Giro, crashing multiple times. If he can’t position himself comfortably on the bike for the long period of time required in this ITT, he could suffer. Contador’s a fighter, though, and he can ride through pain better than most, so I think we can expect a strong ride.

Fabio Aru will probably lose time to a few of his rivals here, but his teammate Dario Cataldo almost certainly will not, and could challenge for the Stage 14 win, as might Tanel Kangert. Richie Porte’s Sky teammates Leopold König and Vasil Kiryienka, Alberto Contador’s Tinkoff-Saxo teammate Michael Rogers, Movistar’s Andrey Amador, Ion Izagirre, and Giovanni Visconti, Kristoff Vandewalle, Luke Durbridge, Patrick Gretsch, Sylvain Chavanel, and Ilnur Zakarin are other riders to watch in this very long race against the clock.

VeloHuman Stage 14 Favorites

1. Richie Porte | 2. Rigoberto Urán | 3. Alberto Contador

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 14 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 23, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 13 Preview

Stage 13: Montecchio Maggiore › Jesolo – 147km

The bunch finally got its act together and reeled in the breakaway riders on Stage 12 to give Philippe Gilbert a win. Anything other than a second straight bunch finish on Stage 13 would be an embarrassment for the sprinters’ teams.

The stage has nothing remotely resemble a climb on it. In fact, the road goes slightly downhill from start to finish. After letting the early break get clear on a similarly sprinter-oriented Stage 10, the quick men should be able to get organized here and ensure that this stage ends in a bunch kick.

The finish is a bit technical. There are several roundabouts in the final few kilometers, and a right-hand turn with around 500 meters to go, after which comes a straightaway to the line. Positioning and a skilled, dedicated leadout will be critical. The potential for bad weather could throw this finale into chaos.

André Greipel is, at his best, the strongest sprinter on the startlist. That makes him an obvious favorite on the stage. Still, he’s prone to have off days, and Stage 13, with a few tricky challenges to navigate in the finale and the potential for rain, is a fair candidate to be an off day.

Perennial runner-up Giacomo Nizzolo might need some things to go his way to finally take that elusive Giro win, but there are more than a few factors weighing in his favor on Stage 13. Nizzolo has terrific top speed for a 500m straightaway and also has strong bike-handling skills and a dedicated squad of support riders to lead him into this finish. This will be as good a stage as any for Nizzolo, who has looked quick at the intermediate sprints and in the Stage 10 finish behind the breakaway.

Sacha Modolo has the top speed to win against anyone, if he can come into the finale in good position. He’s a top contender in any sprint.

Elia Viviani, like Giacomo Nizzolo, has looked strong at the intermediate sprints in this past few days. He’s also one of the two riders to have won a sprint stage in this Giro. He should be in the mix.

Luka Mezgec, Moreno Hofland, and Juan José Lobato could challenge the top favorites. Tom Boonen, Michael Matthews, Davide Appollonio, and Alessandro Petacchi are other quick men to keep an eye on.

VeloHuman Stage 13 Favorites

1. Giacomo Nizzolo | 2. André Greipel | 3. Sacha Modolo

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 13 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 22, 2015
Giro d’Italia 2015: Stage 12 Preview

Stage 12: Imola › Vicenza (Monte Berico) – 190km

Though it doesn’t have as many hills from start to finish as Stage 11 (a day tailormade for a breakaway that was won by a breakaway rider, Ilnur Zakarin), Stage 12 does have a very hilly finale that should put the puncheurs on alert again for the chance of a stage win.

The first 125 kilometers are pan flat, with both intermediate sprints occurring before the road kicks up. The first climb on the menu is the Cat. 4 Castelnuovo. It’s followed by a few smaller ups and downs and then another flat stretch into the foot of the Cat. 3 Crosara climb, a short (3.7km) but very steep (9.1% average gradient) ascent with particularly vicious lower slopes. After coming back down from the Crosara, the peloton will hit a short but not-insignificant uncategorzied climb to Perarolo, one more descent, and then a short but very steep uphill finish that is rated as a Category 4 climb. The last kilomter has an average gradient of 7.1%, with slopes topping out at 11% in the very last stretch to the line.

The bumpy finale will make this yet another day of Giro d’Italia racing that could favor a breakaway, and with the peloton showing itself completely incapable of doing the necessary work to close down moves up the road, it’s hard to overstate the chances of breakaway attempts in this race. In any case, many of the punchier riders who will be favorites for success on this stage are the types who could get into a long-range move anyway. Whatever the lead group on the road looks like in the last few kilometers, expect to see a few attacks on the final climbs before the finish, which are steep enough to be great launching pads for aggressive riders.

Diego Ulissi has won a stage in this Giro already on a finish that wasn’t even as steep as this. With an 11% gradient at the end of this climb, the stage is perfectly designed for the punchy Italian, who can charge uphill like few others. Ulissi is also capable of getting into a breakaway, or getting involved in a move over one of the climbs that come before the finish.

Philippe Gilbert missed out on a golden opportunity on Stage 11 when his team was unable to cooperate with Orica-GreenEdge to reel in the breakaway move. He tried to solo clear of the bunch but it was far too late to make a difference. This finale suits him perfectly though, so he’ll get another chance, assuming he’s in the lead group on the road at the business end of Stage 12.

Orica-GreenEdge has multiple options here. I’m going to go out on a limb (against what the bookmakers’ might suggest) and say that this might be too steep for Michael Matthews. I think he’d prefer this to flatten out in the final few hundred meters, when instead it only kicks up even more. He’s still a top contender, but Simon Gerrans may be the better rider here. Regardless, it’s hard to say whether GreenEdge will see it that way, and they may throw their weight behind Matthews, which alone would make him dangerous, not even taking his obvious talents into account. Simon Clarke could be another card to play, perhaps best sent up the road earlier in the stage.

Juan José Lobato, like Matthews, will have his eye on besting some of the top climbers on this stage. It’s hard to say how well he’ll handle the gradient. He’s had a nice run so far this year on tougher finishes but nothing this steep. Giovanni Visconti could do very well here too—in fact, the way Movistar has been riding, I’d expect to see multiple riders in dark blue finish highly on this stage. Beñat Intxausti and Andrey Amador have looked strong so far in this Giro d’Italia too.

Fabio Felline is another rider whose performance is a bit hard to predict given the lack of data—he’s only been a main featured rider for Trek for a little while now, and while he’s had great success in similar finales, this is pretty steep. In any case, he should be in the mix.

Fabio Aru and Mikel Landa could certainly be up there as well—this isn’t a very long ascent to the line but coming after a few bumps in the road it will be a bit more difficult. The same is true for Alberto Contador—and don’t be surprised if one of them tries to get clear on one of the earlier climbs.

Stefano Pirazzi, Enrico Battaglin, Tom-Jelte Slagter, Carlos Betancur, Damiano Caruso, and Damiano Cunego are others who could get involved in the action on Stage 12.

VeloHuman Stage 12 Favorites

1. Diego Ulissi | 2. Philippe Gilbert | 3. Juan José Lobato

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and check back after the conclusion of Stage 12 for the preview of the next stage. Also, don’t miss the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast!

-Dane Cash

May 20, 2015