Tag: 2015

E3 Harelbeke 2015 Preview

After weeks and weeks of EuropeTour-level one-day races in Belgium, the final weekend in March ushers in the WorldTour stretch of Classics, opening with E3 Harelbeke. It’s typically a thriller, a race that takes advantage of the cobbled climbs in Flanders and balances them nicely with a long enough finishing straight to make the aggressors work extra hard to escape the pack. In short, an excellent way to kick off the next few weeks of marquee one-day events (the great appeal of this weekend’s racing was one topic covered in the Recon Ride podcast’s E3 + Gent-Wevelgem pre-race show, which is absolutely worth a listen).

The Route

E3 Harelbeke unsurprisingly starts and finishes in the town of Harelbeke, weaving through Flanders along a meandering and often cobbled 218-kilometer route that often crosses over itself. The profile contains 17 official climbs. The first half of the race contains only three of those climbs; the remaining fourteen come in rapid succession inside the second half of the day, finishing with around 22 km to go.

Among those many short but steep climbs are several familiar Tour of Flanders battlegrounds, including the quick (700 meters in full) but vicious (12% average gradient) Paterberg at around kilometer 175 and the longer Oude Kwaremont that follows almost immediately after and is crested around kilometer 180. Even the climbs that don’t seem particularly imposing are made all the more so because of the fact that they’ll be conquered with barely a moment’s rest in between—that, and the constant bone-rattling that will accompany many of them.

Things flatten out and ease up considerably, however, after the Tiegemberg with around 20 kilometer left in the race. From there it’s a less complicated (topographically, at least; this is Belgium after all, where the roads are never easy to race on) ride as the road loops into Harelbeke for the finish.

The Contenders

Though the length of the race doesn’t bring with it quite as much of an intimidation factor as that of Flanders or Paris-Roubaix, the cobbled, uphill challenges absolutely make this a favoring the Classics hard men, which makes it unsurprising that E3 Harelbeke has mostly come down to a late attacker surviving to the in several of the past few years. Still, Tom Boonen’s 2012 victory is an important reminder that this race can come down to a sprint. With so much ground left to cover after the Tiegemberg, it will only be a very strong attack that is capable of surviving a chasing pack in this race. Even in that scenario, a decent sprint could come in handy, if a small group crosses the line together (that’s what happened in 2014, when Peter Sagan outsprinted Geraint Thomas, Niki Terpstra, and Stijn Vandenbergh to win the day).

Fortunately for anyone who likes to watch aggressive racing, several of the Classics season’s strongest aggressors are looking in sharp form right now, making powerful attacks a likelihood for E3 Harelbeke.

34-year-old Fabian Cancellara, who looked good in a Milano-Sanremo that did not particularly suit his less-than elite field sprinting, has won E3 Harelbeke a whopping three times in his career. He won’t exact be able to fly under the radar, but he’s so strong it might not matter. On the other hand, Cancellara is facing a retirement relatively soon, and having won in the past, he may elect to ease off the gas just a tad in the upcoming Monuments. Classics veteran Stijn Devolder is a rider who could get involved as well for Trek.

Peter Sagan, last year’s winner, is certainly in the hunt for Monument victories in 2015. It’s unclear how motivated he is to give it his all in this race after his win here last season failed to quiet critics of his inability to win “the big one.” Still, his combination of Classics-soloing prowess and a deadly sprint make him an obvious favorite once again.

Unlike the aforementioned Cancellara and Sagan, Sep Vanmarcke combines a skillset well-tailored for E3 with a lack of any WorldTour results on his palmares as of yet in his career. Lately his climbing skills and his sprint have both been showing themselves nicely, and they complement his cobblestone-riding strength quite well in this eve. His team support is a bit less strong than it was in year’s past now that Lars Boom is off the team, but Vanmarcke is the total package for the Belgian Classics, and it would be a big surprise to see him doing anything other than attacking last in this race. Form, motivation, and an excellent combination of abilities make him a strong pick to finally win a race at the top level.

Greg Van Avermaet is another rider who brings an excellent combination of form and motivation into E3. Van Avermaet is one of the peloton’s best late attackers who showed top-notch soloing form with a 3rd place in the opening time trial at Tirreno-Adriatico (not typically a discipline that sees him doing particularly well). And if he does launch a trademark attack but is unable to drop everyone else in the finale, his quickness to the line in a reduced sprint could make the difference here. His teammate Daniel Oss has been having a strong season and will be a rider to keep an eye on as well.

Etixx-Quickstep and Team Sky both sport multiple-pronged attacks to light up this race as the cobbled and uphill sections start coming fast and furious. Zdenek Stybar, Niki Terpstra, and Stijn Vandenbergh head up a powerful EQS, with Stybar looking like the most fit for this race (his climbing legs and his finishing kick stand out among his teammates), especially after his Strade Bianche victory. Meanwhile, Geraint Thomas, who is such a good climber it’d be disingenuous to pigeonhole him as a “Classics specialist,” may be the strongest option on a strong Sky squad, though Ian Stannard is a major danger as well.

After his Milano-Sanremo victory, John Degenkolb looks to be the class of the group of riders coming into this race hoping for a reduced sprint. His climbing ability will be particularly useful here in E3. Alexander Kristoff is another obvious name to watch in the sprint department; he doesn’t have Degenkolb’s uphill ability but he’s strong enough that he might be able to close gaps if he loses ground on the climbs; teammate Luca Paolini is an ideal supporter and deadly second.

Lars Boom, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Sylvain Chavanel and Heinrich Haussler, Filippo Pozzato, Sebastian Langeveld, and Jurgen Roelandts are other top riders to watch for this race.

VeloHuman Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Sep Vanmarcke
Podium: Greg Van Avermaet, Peter Sagan
Other Top Contenders: Fabian Cancellara, Stijn Vandenbergh, Geraint Thomas, Zdenek Stybar, Ian Stannard, Niki Terpstra, John Degenkolb

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis from the roadside in Flanders!

-Dane Cash

March 26, 2015
Volta a Catalunya 2015: Stage 5 Preview

Stage 5: Alp › Valls – 195.4 km

After a few days of mountain climbs, punctuated by Tejay van Garderen’s emphatic stage win at the La Molina ski resort on Stage 4, the Volta a Catalunya heads back towards sea level on Stage 5. The first half of the day comprises mostly downhill roads. A long, low-gradient, uncategorized climb to Belltall awaits after kilometer 140, followed by another descent that lasts until just after kilometer 180, where the peloton will hit the day’s only categorized climb, the Alt de Lilla, 4.1 kilometers at a 4.8% average gradient. From there it’s a steep downhill almost all the way to the finish line.

The lack of space after the final descent will make this an enticing target for the punchier, aggressive types, but last year’s Valls stage went to Luka Mezgec ahead of Julian Alaphilippe and Samuel Dumoulin in a sprint. Still, with things so close on the General Classification, and bonus seconds on the line that could change the outcome of the overall, expect to see some attacks flying here. In short, this stage could come down to a bunch sprint, it could come down to a reduced sprint, or it could go to a bold attacker off the front; I would characterize each potential outcome as about equally likely, making this a tough stage to call in a race that has already been full of surprises so far.

JJ Rojas is versatile enough to survive some selection on the climbs and he is in great sprinting shape at the moment. With Valverde a bit out of the frame in the GC picture, Rojas might be able to hunt for results without looking over his shoulder as frequently to see if the team leader is nearby and hunting for bonus seconds. This is a nice opportunity for him.

Julian Alaphilippe also has decent climbing legs and a great finishing kick. If this comes down to a sprint, he should be in the mix.

Luka Mezgec knows how to win here and he’ll look to stay near the front of the pack towards the stage to battle it out in a potential bunch sprint. Bryan Coquard came into the Volta looking strong and this is a good profile for him, as he is extremely fast but also capable of surviving a climb, but it hasn’t been a great race for him so far. Still he could turn it around in this finale.

As has already been said in VH’s race previews, look for Alejandro Valverde, Dan Martin, Wilco Kelderman, and Rigoberto Urán (roughly in order of sprinting prowess, though Valverde is undoubtedly scraping the bottom of the barrel for energy at this point after coming here directly from Milano-Sanremo) to fight it out for stage honors if action on the last climb sheds the sprinters from the peloton. In fact, any of those riders could also be the instigators of said action. Enrico Gasparotto, Cyril Gautier, and Martin Elmiger are among the punchier riders who might be able to stick with aggressive GC riders or who could even launch attacks of their own.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. JJ Rojas | 2. Luka Mezgec | 3. Dan Martin

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more Volta a Catalunya analysis.

-Dane Cash

March 26, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: E3 Harelbeke + Gent-Wevelgem 2015 Pre-race Show

Episode 6: E3 Harelbeke + Gent-Wevelgem 2015 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride takes on both of the weekend’s WorldTour one-day events in a double pre-race show of E3 Harelbeke and Gent-Wevelgem.
[powerpress]

Sharing a weekend, many of the same riders, and similar Belgian terrain, E3 Harelbeke and Gent-Wevelgem make for a great pair of races. VeloHuman and Cyclocosm explore the routes, the startlists, and the narratives, with a bit of help from AG2R-La Mondiale’s Hugo Houle.

Photo by shirokazan.

March 26, 2015
Volta a Catalunya 2015: Stage 4 Preview

Stage 4: Tona › La Molina – 188.4 km

The Volta saw it’s first serious climbing battle on Stage 3, with Domenico Pozzovivo taking the day after jumping from a small lead group that included Richie Porte and Alberto Contador, among others, with Alejandro Valverde (who had taken a small spill along the technical route) and Chris Froome a bit behind. Stage 4 will likely be even more decisive, opening with a pair of Cat. 1s and then finishing with the one-two punch of an extra-long Special-Category Alt de la Crueta (21 kilometers at a 4.5% average gradient) and then the Cat. 1 La Molina summit finish (5.6 kilometers with a 5.8% average gradient).

Such an up-and-down day is likely to see consistent attacks. It won’t be easy to control this stage, making a breakaway stage victor possible; at the same time, there are all-important bonus seconds at the line, and several powerful teams hoping to take the top step of the Volta a Catalunya podium, meaning that the peloton will likely work hard to reel in anyone up the road.

As tough as this day will be, the final few kilometers are not terribly steep. It’s feasible that a small group reaches the top of La Molina together, which would give the advantage to the climbers with strong finishing kicks. Alejandro Valverde again comes to mind, though after racing Milano-Sanremo and heading straight to Spain to start in this race, it seems likely that at some point, Valverde might start to feel a bit of fatigue. He’s still a top favorite, but there is that question of whether or not he can keep chugging along at such a high level.

The Chris Froome vs. Alberto Contador battle may have given way to a Richie Porte vs. Alberto Contador battle, and Stage 4 will certain offer another battleground for the confrtontation. Porte has the stronger team, with almost all of Sky’s top climbers. With the number of options Sky has brought to this race, their odds of coming away with a result are pretty good. Then again, Alberto Contador at his best would be the best climber here (with the only rider who might rival him, Froome, still lacking just a bit of form after his illness at the beginning of the month). Contador is a shrewd tactician. The question is whether he can come up with the right strategy to beat this juggernaut Sky team.

Rigoberto Urán and Dan Martin may get another opportunity after they lost out to Domenico Pozzovivo on Stage 3. If they can stick with the lead group at the end of the day, they both have great finishing kicks to go for the victory at the line. The same is true for Wilco Kelderman, though it seems a bit less likely that Kelderman will survive this tough stage with the top favorites.

Pozzovivo will be another contender here, given the form he showed on Stage 3. He lacks the top speed to win a potential reduced sprint, meaning that he’ll need to jump from whatever group he is in to do win this stage, but he’s had a lot of success in doing just that. Fabio Aru, Andrew Talansky, and Esteban Chaves are other strong climbers who could be looking to go on the offensive.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Riche Porte | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Alberto Contador

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more Volta a Catalunya analysis!

March 25, 2015
Volta a Catalunya 2015: Stage 3 Preview

Stage 3: Girona › Girona – 156.6 km

A breakaway surprised the peloton on the opening stage of the Volta and threw the General Classification battle into chaos, and the GC-related surprises continued on Stage 2 when Alejandro Valverde outclassed several sprinters to take a win and valuable bonus seconds. A GC battle on Stage 3 of the Volta a Catalunya, however, would not come as a big surprise: with two Cat. 1 ascents inside the final half of the day, out of five total categorized climbs, this will be a stage that the climbers have marked in the roadbook. The Alt dels Ángels (Category 1, 6 kilometers at a 5.5% average gradient) is the uphill challenge to know here. The riders will crest it for the first time about halfway through the stage, then they’ll hit a Cat. 2, and then they’ll return to the Alt del Ángels once more for a second helping. From the top of that ascent it’s 13 km to the finish, and it’s downhill until there are less than 3 kilometers to go. Attacks launched on the Alt del Ángels could stick. The day’s climbing is not steep enough to be particularly intimidating to the marquee overall contenders, but the race situation after two stages could see the uphill specialists trying to make things happen on the slopes regardless.

With five categorized climbs punctuating the stage, a breakaway is possible here, though the GC teams are extra wary of ignoring the breakers after Stage 1. What’s more, bonus seconds are on the line in this Volta. With several of the top GC contenders sporting fast finishing kicks, the motivation in the peloton to reel in anyone off the front will be high.

One GC contender boasting a particularly speedy finishing kick is the rider who took stage 2. Alejandro Valverde is perfectly suited for this stage. He’s explosive enough on the climbs to try to break free, but a flat finish will make it likely that a small group of aggressors will cross the line here together, and Valverde is deadly sprinting out of a small group. As much of an advantage as the breakaway riders from Stage 1 have here in Catalunya, Vavlerde won’t go down without a fight.

Rigoberto Urán, Giampaolo Caruso, and Wilco Kelderman, all of them also sporting strong sprinting abilities to go with their climbing legs, will all be riders to watch in this scenario as well.

For many of the Cannondale-Garmin riders, these are home roads. This is an excellent profile for Dan Martin, who could be looking to launch an attack on the final ascent. His team knows how to make things interesting on days packed with climbs, and they have the firepower to do so—they might look to put on a show here similar to the one they put on in the 2013 Tour de France when Dan Martin won a mountainous Stage 9 after his team had been on the attack all day.

It’s not out of the question that Alberto Contador or Chris Froome try to make something happen on these climbs, but they aren’t quite steep enough or long enough to favor either of the former Tour de France winners. It won’t be easy for them to get clear here. In Froome’s case, a teammate may be better suited for this stage: Wout Poels tends to thrive on days with repeated not-inhumane climbs.

JJ Rojas, Enrico Gasparotto, and Julian Alaphilippe are among the sprintier types who at least have a shot of surviving. Meanwhile, breakaway-loving Thomas De Gendt probably has this parcours in mind as a perfect opportunity to try to take a long-range victory. He’s way down on GC and not a threat to the overall. Allowing him to make it to the line would not have the same implications for the peloton that their mistake on Stage 1 had. Amets Txurruka and the already-out-of-GC-contention Carlos Betancur are others to watch in a breakaway scenario.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Rigoberto Urán | 3. Dan Martin

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis during the race!

-Dane Cash

March 24, 2015
Volta a Catalunya 2015: Stage 2 Preview

Stage 2: Mataró › Olot – 191.8 km

The 2015 Volta a Catalunya opened with quite a surprising first stage. Maciej Paterski, Pierre Rolland, and Bart De Clercq broke away from the peloton early in the day and never looked back, holding the advantage all the way to the line. Paterski won the stage. The peloton crossed the line 2:40 behind. Pre-race outsider Pierre Rolland now has the inside track to overall victory; nearly three minutes of an advantage will be hard for the other riders to overcome on this parcours.

Still, a bad day in the mountains can ruin even the strongest of GC positions, and there is plenty of racing to be done yet. Stage 2 is a 191.8-kilometer journey from Mataró to Olot. After a small early climb, there aren’t many topographic challenges, other than a pair of low-gradient rollers in the middle of the day, until near the finish line. The Alt de Montagut (2.1 kilometers, 4.5% average gradient) will be topped with less than 15 km to go, and it’s followed by an uncategorized uphill stretch that only flattens out inside the final 10 km.

The stage is not particularly difficult, but the last few climbs could complicate things for the heavier sprinters. The most likely scenario would seem to be a reduced sprint among the more versatile riders in the peloton, but there is always the possibility of a successful attack on one of the late steep sections.

As a rider who also sports a very fast finish, Julian Alaphilippe can climb quite well. He has had success in some very hilly races in the past, even occasionally get involved in late moves from time to time (he was 5th in the GP Ouest-France last year). That versatility makes him a prime pick here.

Bryan Coquard could improve as a strategist in the sprints, but there is no denying his blazing top speed, and he also has decent climbing legs. There’s not guarantee he’ll make it to the finish, but if he can, he’ll be difficult to beat.

JJ Rojas may not have the same top speed of the purer sprinters but he can handle difficult climbs. He’s a strong candidate for a good result, though victories are always hard to come by for Rojas.

Luka Mezgec isn’t quite as versatile but he’s a very capable sprinter, and if he doesn’t lose ground on the climb, he’ll have a great chance.

It’s possible that the GC riders try to mix it up at the end of this stage to claw back time from Rolland. Look for Dan Martin, Alejandro Valverde, and Rigoberto Urán if the overall race contenders manage to shed the sprinters.

If they don’t, the list of other quick men who make for decent contenders here includes: Matteo Pelucchi, Caleb Ewan, Julien Simon, Roberto Ferrari, Jasper Stuyven, and Greg Henderson. Punchy types like Enrico Gasparatto could also be in the mix.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Bryan Coquard | 2. Julian Alaphilippe | 3. JJ Rojas

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for plenty more analysis during the race!

-Dane Cash

March 23, 2015