Tag: 2015

Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 20 Preview

San Lorenzo de El Escorial › Cercedilla – 175.8km

Stage 20 will almost certainly be the final stage of the Vuelta with GC implications, and fortunately for anyone hoping for a close fight, the profile should set up a thriller.

The road from start in San Lorenzo de El Escorial to the finish in Cercedilla won’t be easy, with four Cat. 1s along the way. The road goes upward right from the start, gradually rising into the foot of the Puerto de Navacerrada, 9.4km at 6.6%. Then comes a flat section and then descent to the foot of the Puero de la Morcuera, 11.5km at 5.4%. It’s a grand chance to get acclimated to the climb: from the top, the riders will descend down to a flat stretch before circling back around and going right back up again, albeit on a partially different route for 10.4 total kilometers of climbing at 6.6%. One more downhill leads into the last official climb of the 2015 Vuelta.

11km at 5.3%, the Puerto de Cotos is challenging by itself but it’s really the incessant nature of the climbing on Stage 20 that will do the most damage. The gradients on the final climb aren’t that steep.

After the KOM summit, there’s a 7km flat section before a descent to the finish, where the road kicks up again in the final moment for 200 meters at almost 10%.

As the last mountain stage in the Vuelta, Stage 20 will be a critical opportunity for the GC riders to change their fortunes before Madrid. Even without a summit finish, the motivation should be there for the top riders in the race to make this a challenging day. The up-and-down profile does make for an appealing route for the breakaway, though, and the riders up the road early will at least have some chance at success if the GC favorites hold off on any serious hostilities until late in the day.

If the GC men are the ones vying for the stage, Alejandro Valverde is the prime pick for the stage victory. His skillset is perfect for Stage 20, where the climbs might not be hard enough to blow up the group of overall favorites before the finish. Valverde is also highly motivated to nab a result now that he’s feeling good again after a few off days.

Joaquím Rodríguez is an obvious candidate as well with this finish, though Daniel Moreno is also looking strong. Moreno may be an even stronger candidate for victory right now, and Katusha does not appear to be afraid to let Purito’s loyal lieutenant strike out on his own every once in a while.

Fabio Aru will certainly try to distance Tom Dumoulin on this stage, and while I was under the belief a few days ago that he’d be successful, I’m not so sure after Aru’s crash on Stage 19. He looks to be a bit worse for the wear. What’s more, Tom Dumoulin has a lot of pop and could shine in this finish if he can make it over all the climbs with the leaders. He can’t be counted out for the stage victory.

Esteban Chaves, Rafal Majka, and Nairo Quintana are all showing strong enough form, and are all far enough behind Dumoulin, that it wouldn’t be all that surprising if any of them launched a stage-winning attack on the final categorized climb.

For riders who will be candidates for breakaway success, look to the strongest of the riders who have been consistently involved in the battle to make it into the early move. Romain Sicard, Nicolas Roche, Rodolfo Torres, Alessandro De Marchi, Darwin Atapuma, Rubén Plaza, and Giovanni Visconti are all on the long list of potential winners from afar.

VeloHuman Stage 20 Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Daniel Moreno | 3. Joaquím Rodríguez

Don’t miss the Recon Ride’s third and final Vuelta podcast, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. The preview of the next stage will be up after the conclusion of Stage 20.

September 12, 2015
Grand Prix Cycliste de Québec 2015 Preview

As the Vuelta rages on, another contingent of the WorldTour peloton is in North America for the Grands Prix Cyclistes of Québec and Montréal. The startlists in the Canadian GPs are always excellent, but the rosters are particularly impressive this year thanks to the presence of Worlds in Richmond, Virginia, which is far closer to Canada than it is to Europe (the Worlds prep storyline is just one of many covered in the latest Recon Ride, which is absolutely worth a listen). Friday’s GP Québec is the first race on the docket—and VH will be at the event in-person, so stay tuned here and on Twitter @VeloHuman.

The Route

The profile of the GP Québec always sets up an exciting race. The climbs aren’t too difficult by themselves, but repeated ascents, and the placement of steep gradients in the run-up to the line makes it a selective race.

The final few kilometers of the GP Québec typically make for a hectic finale.

The GP Québec is a circuit race of 16 laps of 12.6km each. The first 4 kilometers of the circuit are mostly flat. Then comes a steep descent down to the St. Lawrence River waterfront. After 4 flat kilometers by the river, things get challenging, as the road winds its way up one climb after another, gradually making its way back up to the start finish line. The final 3.5 km trend upward, but it’s an irregular ascent comprising several individual steeper sections with a few downhill and flat stretches in between. There are four official climbs: the Côte de la Montaigne (375m at 10%), the Côte de la Potasse (420m at 9%), the Montée de la Fabrique (190m at 7%), and then the run-up to the finish, which starts on the Montée du Fort and ends on the Grand Allée (1km at 4%).

By themselves, the late climbs may not look like much, but taken in short succession so many times, they tend to whittle down the peloton before the final lap, when they serve as a springboard for countless attacks.

The Contenders

The GP Québec is a well-balanced circuit that can either come down to a selective sprint or a late attack. In either scenario, climbing legs are important. Strongmen tend to thrive even when a group kick decides the race, as the peloton is always lined out for the final few hectic kilometers, and it’s impossible for the traditional sprinters to stay as well-protected as they might on a flat Grand Tour stage.

The 2014 winner, Simon Gerrans, is not here to defend his title. Combined with an excellent startlist, that makes for a wide open race. Almost every team in the race has a rider who could conceivably win, and some teams have two or even three riders who are legitimate threats. This race is always unpredictable (Robert Gesink won the 2013 edition in an uphill sprint ahead of Peter Sagan, for instance) but it’s even more difficult to predict how things will turn out this year.

In any case, it’s probably safe to bet on BMC to put in a good ride. Philippe Gilbert won the race in 2011, and Greg Van Avermaet has been in the Top 10 every year since. Both riders are here for the 2015 edition. Van Avermaet loves the Canadian GPs and has come very close to winning both, and he looks to be on excellent form right now. The GP Québec suits him very well, with late climbs that appeal to the aggressive riders and a finish that could allow him to use his killer uphill sprint if a small group comes to the line. In the absence of Gerrans, Van Avermaet will be a strong contender for the win. So will Gilbert, of course, who has looked good all year. He won the sprint for 2nd in San Sebastián out of an impressive group, and showed good form in the Eneco Tour as well. BMC could send one of their leaders up the road in the finale, and allow the other to vie for the win in a small group kick, and given the versatility of both Belgians, either rider could play either role.

Orica-GreenEdge may be without the defending champion, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have a race favorite in Canada. In fact, they have more than one. Michael Matthews could do the job of defending the title for the team if his squad can reel in all the inevitable late attacks. This will be a challenging finish for Matthews, who will have the battle to stay at the front of a lined-out pack, but if he can hold on until the end of the climb he will be a major threat. If not, OGE will still have other options. Michael Albasini is always deadly in an uphill sprint, and Adam and Simon Yates are both potential attackers.

Etixx-QuickStep can rely on the 1-2 punch of Michal Kwiatkowski and Julian Alaphilippe, who both bring similar skillsets to the table. With Kwiatkowski on unknown form, Alaphilippe may be the better option. He has the speed to win a selective sprint on these gradients.

Between Bauke Mollema, Fabio Felline, and Julián Arredondo, Trek should be able to come up with at least one top finisher. Lampre-Merida’s duo of Rui Costa and Diego Ulissi may be a bit better-suited to the somewhat harder Montréal race, but the extremely impressive startlist could make this race more selective than usual, and that could favor the pair. Costa always does well in Canada and will be hungry to get a late-season result after a disappointing summer. Ramunas Navardauskas was 3rd here last year and could be a threat again, but Cannondale-Garmin teammate Tom-Jelte Slagter may be the better option coming off of two Tour of Alberta stage wins and 3rd overall on GC. He hasn’t been on the best form for much of the season, but when he’s at his best, he’s terrific on just this sort of profile.

Tony Gallopin will likely be the best option for Lotto-Soudal thanks to his skillset that combines a fast finish with excellent climbing legs, but Tim Wellens, Jurgen Roelandts, and Tiesj Benoot could also threaten. LottoNL-Jumbo is yet another team with multiple options: former winner Robert Gesink can’t be counted out, and Sep Vanmarcke is on great form and could nab a result if he can leave the bunch behind in the finale.

Lars Petter Nordhaug, Alexey Lutsenko, Michael Valgren, Tommy Voeckler, Matti Breschel, and the AG2R trio of Jan Bakelants, Alexis Vuillermoz, and Romain Bardet are others who could shine in a selective finale—if the faster finishers all look at each other in the last few kilometers, it’s a real possibility that this race could go to a lone surprise attacker or a small group of them taking advantage of the hesitation of the bigger favorites.

There are always sprinters making the trip to Québec who probably won’t have much of a shot at winning the race, but given the level of talent assembled they are at least worth mentioning. Alexander Kristoff, in excellent shape with Worlds around the corner, and Bryan Coquard, light enough to be a potential contender on the climbs, are probably the best candidates out of the bunch. Sam Bennett, Heinrich Haussler, Wouter Wippert, and Arnaud Démare are others in attendance.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Greg Van Avermaet
Podium: Michael Matthews, Julian Alaphilippe
Other Top Contenders: Tony Gallopin, Fabio Felline, Rui Costa, Philippe Gilbert, Sep Vanmarcke, Michael Albasini, Tom-Jelte Slagter

Don’t miss the Recon Ride’s GP Québec (and Montréal) pre-race podcast, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for plenty more analysis during the race.

September 11, 2015
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 18 Preview

Stage 18: Roa › Riaza 204km

There are just four stages left in the 2015 Vuelta a España, and only three of them have climbs to speak of: anyone who isn’t satisfied with their GC position thus far has to put it all on the line in the next few days. That should make for an exciting finale.

Stage 18 is a lumpy one, and while it may lack a summit finish, don’t underestimate the potential for action. The stage opens with a long false flat, a few rollers, and then a very long false flat (about 30km at a 1% gradient or so) that runs into the first of the stage’s three categorized climbs, the Cat. 3 Alto Santibáñez de Ayllón. After a downhill stretch comes another Cat. 3, and then the next 80 kilometers are a constant succession of short ups and downs that, while uncategorized, will likely inject some fatigue into the legs.

At kilometer 181, the riders will hit the final climb of the day, the cat. 1 Puerto de la Quesera. 10km at 5.2%, it starts out relatively easy before getting a bit more difficult after 4km. From the top, it’s only 13km to the finish, downhill all the way to the line.

In terms of the stage win, this one looks tailormade for the breakaway. The GC favorites put everything on the line on Stage 17 and might be bringing a bit of fatigue into the day, and without a summit finish, there might be bit less pace in the peloton late in the afternoon.

Alessandro De Marchi already has one breakaway stage victory in this Vuelta and a few of the days ahead will offer more opportunities for De Marchi’s aggressive brand of racing. He’s not a sprinter, nor is he an elite climber compared to the jersey hopefuls, but he’s excellent on rolling terrain.

Giovanni Visconti has the multi-fateced skillset to win. And a nice finishing kick to place highly at the line. Movistar politics are the big unknown here. but if he’s in the lead group near the end of the day, he’s a rider to watch.

Europcar has landed riders in break over and over agains in this Vuelta and this stage should continue that trend. Cyril Gautier has a strong track record on small climbs like this and Romain Sicard is having a great run so far.

Lampre-Merida’s Rubén Plaza took a Tour de France stage victory in July bolstered by his ability to put in a good performance on lumpy terrain. Caja Rural’s José Goncalves is well-suited to the parcours, though the team has so many options it’s hard to pick just one. Adam Hansen, Julien Simon, Stephen Cummings, and Niki Terpstra are others could be looking to win the early battle to get into the break.

Alejandro Valverde has to be to the top favorite if the red jersey hopefuls are fighting it out for the stage victory. With a sprint that is so much better than that of his rivals, he’s looking strong again, so the climbs shouldn’t trouble him.

Joaquím Rodriguez is also well-suited to success on the parcours. He needs to make something happen as soon as possible to still hold on to his slim chance at the red jersey. It shouldn’t come as a surprise if he tries something on the final climb.

VeloHuman Stage 18 Favorites

1. Alessandro De Marchi | 2. Giovanni Visconti | 3. José Goncalves

Don’t miss the latest Recon Ride podcast episode, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. The preview of the next stage will be up after the conclusion of Stage 18.

September 10, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: GP Québec + GP Montréal 2015 Pre-race Show

Episode 27: GP Québec + GP Montréal 2015 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride delivers a double dose of analysis, the with a pre-race show that takes on the GP Québec and its sister race, the GP Montréal. A few of the top names in attendance offer the insider’s take on North America’s only WorldTour races.
[powerpress]

For one weekend every year, WorldTour cycling crosses to the other side of the Atlantic for the Grande Prix Cycliste de Québec and Grand Prix Cycliste de Montréal. The courses tend to produce exciting racing, and thanks to Canada’s proximity to the Richmond world championships, the always-excellent startlists are even more impressive this year. Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm preview both events in one Recon Race pre-race show—with a little help from the three of biggest stars who have made the trip: Greg Van Avermaet, Michal Kwiatkowksi, and Romain Bardet.

September 9, 2015
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 17 Preview

Stage 17: Burgos › Burgos – 38.7km (ITT)

For the powerful engines in the Vuelta peloton who have been struggling in the mountains, the Stage 17 time trial, likely to play a pivotal role in deciding the overall winner of the race, is just what the doctor ordered.

38.7 kilometers in full, it’s a time trial that suits the specialists—though perhaps a bit less than a quick glance at the profile would suggest. The first 10km trends generally uphill, with a few steeper stretches. Then it’s a quick downhill, a short roller, and a descent onto a long section of flat.

Around kilometer 30 there is another bump in the road, followed by a climb of about a kilometer at over 6%. Then comes a descent down into a flattish (slightly uphill finish).

While the parcours is far from a high-mountain time trial, it does have a few ups and downs and some technical stretches. We can expect the time trialing heavyweights to go really well, but I do see a few areas that will give the climbers at least something to be happy about.

Tom Dumoulin, currently 4th overall, is the best time trialist in the race by a significant margin, and he has everything on the line, as he is just 2 minutes away from the race lead. At his best, he would dominate this course, which suits him very well. However, an ITT after two weeks of hard racing and hanging with the GC favorites is uncharted territory for Dumoulin. I still see him as the favorite, and I expect him to do very well, but he might not perform quite to his peak ability after such a tough Vuelta.

Vasil Kiryienka will likely be his biggest challenger for the stage. Kiryienka has been excellent this year, and he has already taken a big Grand Tour time trial victory this season in the Giro. Unlike Dumoulin, he has not needed to go quite as deep in the Vuelta. He’s got strong climbing legs and won’t be troubled by the rollers on the course. In short, I think he will give Dumoulin a run for his money for Stage 17.

Luis León Sánchez was just 12 seconds behind Kiryienka in the that Giro TT. He’s on great form right now and will have a rare chance to do his own thing here. Like the aforementioned pair, he’s also handy on rolling climbs and should go very well on the parcours.

Nelson Oliveira is on great form right now and is strong in the discipline. He could contend for the stage win. Jurgen Van Den Broeck has turned himself into a TT specialist at this point in his career and has put up several nice results recently. Stephen Cummings, Maciej Bodnar, Niki Terpstra, Sylvain Chavanel, and Jerome Coppel are others to watch for on Stage 17.

I think Joaquím Rodríguez will do a bit better than most people seem to expect—despite his reputation for losing big in the ITTs, he’s become a respectable rider against the clock over the past few years. Unfortunately for Purito, I also think we will see Fabio Aru putting up a strong ride. Astana knows how important the time trials are and even though Aru is far from a chrono specialist, he’s got a strong engine and will be fresher than most riders after several tough days in the mountains. In the same vein, I see Rafal Majka doing particularly well on Stage 17. He’s shown ability against the clock even on flatter TTs in the past, and he’s got a great chance at podium in this Vuelta if he can put it all together here.

VeloHuman Stage 17 Favorites

1. Tom Dumoulin | 2. Vasil Kiryienka | 3. Luis León Sánchez

Don’t miss the latest Recon Ride podcast episode, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. The preview of the next stage will be up after the conclusion of Stage 17.

September 9, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: Vuelta a España 2015 Show, Part III

Episode 26: Vuelta a España 2015 Show, Part III
The Vuelta a España remains a hotly contested race even into its third week, which gives the Recon Ride plenty to talk about in this third and final Vuelta show.

[powerpress]

Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm take a look at where things stand at the Vuelta after 16 stages, and what’s on tap as the year’s final Grand Tour comes down the home stretch, with a bit of help from veteran cycling journalist Andrew Hood.

Photo by bego paterna (CC).

September 8, 2015