Tag: 2015

Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 15 Preview

Stage 15: Comillas › Sotres – 175.8km

The climbing continues in the Vuelta’s 15th stage. The 175.8km journey from Comillas to Sotres resembles Stage 14 in that it opens with a long stretch without many serious challenges before ramping up to a tough finishing climb.

The first 70 kilometers of Stage 15 consist mostly of small rolling hills. An uncategorized ascent then signals the start of the more difficult terrain. It’s followed by an intriguing Alto del Torno climb, a Cat. 2 of 10.1km at an average gradient of 3.2% that will likely be far more challenging than the metric indicate, thanks to its irregular nature. The road ascends in three successive steep sections broken up by a pair of quick downhills, which will make for a constantly changing pace that isn’t going to be particularly comfortable.

From the top it’s a fast descent into a flat section around 20km before an uncategorized bump, and then a final downhill into the finishing climb, the Alto de Sotres.

The double-digit gradients that close out Stage 15 will undoubtedly see gaps open up among the GC contenders.

A Cat. 1 of 12.7km at 7.9%, it’s one of the most difficult climbs in the race, an irregular ascent with a challenging opening third, an easier midsection, and a vicious final 3km that ascend into the double digits, with a stretch of 13% just before the finish line.

The last 70km of Stage 15 will make for an exhausting finale. The very steep final few kilometers will make this stage a critical day for the GC favorites, especially those who fear the time trial to come. In terms of the battle for stage honors, however, I think the breakaway specialists will have an excellent opportunity today. With the most difficult part of the stage at the very end of the final climb, it wouldn’t be particularly surprising to see the GC favorites hold off on major hostilities until the very end of the day.

The breakaway riders will likely open up a big advantage on the flat kilometers at the start of the stage where the GC teams will be less interested in driving the pace, and the rolling, irregular terrain that follows will make for a day that is difficult to control.

As such, I don’t see any one rider as the top favorite, but I see several potential long-range candidates with a great shot at success, and with the top-flight GC names as obvious favorites if everything comes back together.

Several potential breakaway candidates kept missed (or intentionally stayed away from) the Stage 14 break, which should make for a hotly contested fight to make the break on Stage 15.

Team Colombia has put riders in breakaways throughout this Vuelta a España, as expected, but the team has little to show for it so far. It would help if they could get either one of their two best climbers up the road. Rodolfo Torres got off to a slow start in the Vuelta, but he has looked good climbing with the overall GC favorites in the past few mountain stages. A breakaway stage win should be doable. Getting up the road may be his biggest challenge—Torres doesn’t have nearly as much experience making it into breakaway moves at this level as some of his teammates, who have made careers out of going off the front in Grand Tours. Fabio Duarte is certainly one of those riders, and near the end of a quiet season he’s finally starting to show some ability.

BMC will be in a great position to double up after Alessandro De Marchi’s Stage 14 win if Darwin Atapuma can get into the early move. A stage without much in the way of challenging descents should suit Atapuma, who is better at going up than going down.

Europcar’s Romain Sicard is looking very good right now and he has doggedly chased down breakaway attempts so far in the race and could get up the road again here, but now sitting within 4 minutes of the overall lead, he could find it hard to stick in the move. Cyril Gautier, Pierre Rolland, and Jérôme Cousin may be better options for the team.

Sky has several cards to play in the hunt for stage wins in the mountains: Vasil Kiryienka, Sergio Henao, Ian Boswell, and Nicolas Roche are all viable options, and all four will have a chance if they make the break.

Giovanni Visconti and Andrey Amador give Movistar two terrific candidates for breakaway success, but it’s hard to say how interested Movistar will be in the stagehunting game now that they appear to be back in the GC battle.

If Mikel Landa is in the early move, he’s an obvious candidate for long-range success, though it’s hard to say what’s on his mind now that he’s got one Vuelta stage win in the bag. Rubén Plaza, Bart De Clercq, Kenny Elissonde, Bert-Jan Lindeman, David Arroyo, José Goncalves, and Frank Schleck are others who could have success from afar.

Despite losing some ground to a few of his rivals, Fabio Aru looked strong on Stage 14, probably giving up time more as a function of attacking too early than anything else. He will again be among the favorites out of the group of GC contenders. He’s not afraid to go on the attack to build his advantage, either. Still, Nairo Quintana looks much-improved after a rough patch, and will be a formidable opponent on the steep stuff. I’m still not sure that he’s up to beating Aru on these vicious gradients, but it won’t be much of a surprise to see him leave the Italian behind either.

Joaquím Rodríguez should look like the look of the finale, and the slightly shorter final climb of Stage 15 should suit him better than the climb that closed out Stage 14. Purito has not been as aggressive as expected thus far in the Vuelta, but he has to know he is running out of opportunities to make a difference in this race.

Esteban Chaves continues to show his talents, and he could enjoy a longer leash now that he’s over a minute down on GC. Rafal Majka looked good, if not worldbeating, on Stage 14, and he might get some breathing room to launch an attack on Stage 15 as well.

VeloHuman Stage 15 Favorites

1. Rodolfo Torres | 2. Darwin Atapuma | 3. Sergio Henao

Don’t miss the latest Recon Ride podcast episode, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more Vuelta a España analysis. The preview of the next stage will be up after the conclusion of Stage 15.

September 5, 2015
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 14 Preview

Stage 14: Vitoria › Alto Campoo – 215km

After two comparatively easy days, the Vuelta a España peloton returns to the mountains for Stage 14.

It’s a long one at 215 total kilometers, and though it opens with 80km without categorized climbs, things get pretty tricky after that.

At around kilometer 80 the road angles upward gently for 27 long kilometers into the foot of the first categorized climb of the stage, the Cat. 3 Puerto Estacas de Trueba. Officially the climb is only 11km at 2.9%, but taken with the uphill stretch prior to the categorized section it’s nearly 40km of climbing. The average gradient across that entire span may be less than 2% but that is still a very long time to be going upward.

The Cat. 3 summit is followed by a fast descent into the foot of a Cat. 1, the 11.5km Puerto del Escudo. The average gradient of 6.4% doesn’t really tell the whole story—the first 4km are not very steep but then the road kicks into the double digits for several prolonged stretches.

From the top of the Cat. 1 the riders will take a very brief downhill and then a long flat stretch before starting the final climb, the special-category 18km Alto Campoo, which has an average gradient of 5.5%. Again, the early slopes are relatively easy but the climb gets harder as it goes on.

Stage 14 is very long, and the three categorized climbs will be tough enough to put plenty of hurt into the legs. The profile, as with any mountainous profile, will give the breakaway a chance, especially if the GC riders are less inclined to ride a hard tempo with two more mountain stages ahead. On the other hand, the pace in the pack is likely to pick up on that long late flat section in preparation for a long final climb, which could doom a move up the road. With a few stages that could appeal more to the breakaway coming up, some long-range specialists could opt to keep the powder dry.

Among the GC riders in the race, Fabio Aru looks the strongest right now, and his team packs serious punch. If Aru wants to gain time on his rivals, he should be able to pull it off, as he’s just looked that good so far. However, with the overall victory very much in his reach, Aru could be focused entirely on the two riders within a minute of his lead, and that could open the door for others.

Rafal Majka has looked strong on every summit finish of the Vuelta so far. He’s currently sitting 4th overall, and while his deficit to Aru is not so great that Astana will just let him get up the road without a thought, he may be able to land an attack if there is any hesitation while Aru watches those closer to his lead. This is a great finishing climb for Majka, who might be just a bit behind some of the top GC men on the extreme gradients, but who is excellent in a sustained attack from a few kilometers out.

Joaquím Rodríguez needs to get moving if he wants to have a chance at winning the overall Vuelta title. Currently 2nd overall, this may be the best chance he’s going to get at a Grand Tour victory for the rest of his career. He has looked strong so far, though not dominant. He’s the most explosive rider within striking distance of the overall title, though, and if he can team up with Daniel Moreno to launch a move on this final climb, he’s got a shot at stage success.

Esteban Chaves, a bit further down on GC now, should have plenty of freedom to go hunting for another stage win. Alejandro Valverde has not looked at his best in the past few stages, but if he can recover some strength, he’s an obvious candidate for stage success now that he, too, is less of a GC threat. Movistar will want to do everything possible to get another stage win out of the Vuelta with sickness laying Nairo Quintana low.

Mikel Nieve is Sky’s best hope of coming away from the Vuelta with a result and he should get some breathing room. This climb suits him well.

It’s going to take a strong climber to win this stage from a breakaway, but there are a few good candidates for a successful long-range attack on Stage 14. Rodolfo Torres, Fabio Duarte, Giovanni Visconti, Andrey Amador, Vasil Kiryienka, and Darwin Atapuma are among the riders who could have a chance in that scenario.

VeloHuman Stage 14 Favorites

1. Rafal Majka | 2. Fabio Aru | 3. Joaquím Rodríguez

Don’t miss the latest Recon Ride podcast episode, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. The preview of the next stage will be up after the conclusion of Stage 14.

September 4, 2015
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 13 Preview

Stage 13: Calatayud › Tarazona – 178km

As the Vuelta gets lumpier and lumpier, we can probably start to expect more and more breakaway victories. Stage 13 is a great place for the long-range hopefuls to get on track for the week ahead.

Things open with a bit of up-and-down before an uphill run-in into a Cat. 3. Officially the climb is only 8.2km but by the time the riders reach the top they will have been ascending for over 18km at a low gradient. After a quick downhill comes a relatively easy Cat. 1, 10.9km at a bit under 5%. From there the road heads downward again for nearly 50km before things flatten out for a short stretch.

The final categorized climb, a Cat. 3 of 8.5km at 4.5%, officially peaks at a little over 30km before the finish. The road still angles upward slightly for a few more kilometers, but then it’s a long downhill run that only evens out inside the final 10km.

There is another small bump that starts with a little under 2.5km left in the stage, but the road flattens out near the flamme rouge for a relatively straightforward finale.

None of the climbs on Stage 13 are particularly difficult, but it’s hard to see the peloton reeling in the early move: the up-and-down profile will make things hard to control, and the stage is too easy to entice the GC teams to contribute to pushing the pace. The sprinters will have a chance on Stage 13, but it seems much more likely that this one will go down to the breakaway specialists.

As such, there are no real “favorites” for the stage, only riders who seem like good candidates for a win from afar.

Europcar is usually pretty adept at getting riders into breakaways, and they have multiple options in the Vuelta. The challenge will be turning opportunities into success, which they haven’t achieved much of this year. On ability, Cyril Gautier should be their top choice on this profile. He’s got good climbing legs and packs some punch for a late escape or a reduced sprint. Still, it’s difficult to predict whether he’ll even try to get in the move at all. Romain Sicard and Jerome Cousin have been very active for Europcar in this Vuelta and they may get the nod to go up the road instead.

Niki Terpstra has tried his luck with a few escape attempts so far in the Vuelta, and this profile should him more than many of the those that remain. He’s not the world’s greatest climber but he’s got plenty of pop and excellent soloing ability. Young Spaniard Carlos Verona is another option for Etixx-QuickStep.

After a rough outing on Stage 11, Movistar is probably looking to get more active in the breakaway game. Giovanni Visconti is an excellent option for this stage, with just the right skillset for the profile, and he’ll be among the favorites if he can get into the breakaway.

Adam Hansen has been a little bit quieter than expected in the breakaway game up to this point in the race, but Stage 13 suits him well. He’d probably prefer a more techincal run-in though.

Alessandro De Marchi has been quiet all season, but he has finally started to show some interest in getting active. He could be BMC’s best option, as these climbs may not be challenging enough to appeal to Darwin Atapuma or Samuel Sánchez.

Caja Rural will almost certainly send someone up the road, but it’s hard to say who it will be. Omar Fraile has been very active off the front sweeping up KOM points but now that he has a big lead in that classification, the team may be more interested in a stage win. Pello Bilbao and José Goncalves, both of whom have looked particularly good this year, are their best options to pull that off.

Miguel Angel Rubio was Colombia’s breakaway man on Stage 12, which could mean someone else makes the attempt on Stage 13. Carlos Quintero has been active so far. Rubén Plaza, who has been riding well since June, and Kristijan Durasek, who does have a bit of speed for a fast finish, give Lampre-Merida a pair of strong options. Stephen Cummings, AG2R’s Rinaldo Nocentini and Blel Kadri, Cannondale-Garmin’s Alex Howes and Ben King, and Sylvain Chavanel are other riders on the list of potential long-range candidates for Stage 13 success.

In the (unlikely) event that this does come down to a sprint, John Degenkolb is the favorite, despite his lack of wins so far, while Tosh Van der Sande, José Joaquín Rojas, Danny Van Poppel, and Kristian Sbaragli will also probably be in the mix.

VeloHuman Stage 13 Favorites

1. Cyril Gautier | 2. Niki Terpstra | 3. José Goncalves

Don’t miss the latest Recon Ride podcast episode, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. The preview of the next stage will be up after the conclusion of Stage 13.

September 3, 2015
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 12 Preview

Stage 12: Escaldes-Engordany › Lleida – 173km

After a brutal day in the mountains, the Vuelta will show mercy to the peloton with a less vicious Stage 12.

The first 35km of the stage are downhill. Then comes the only categorized climb of the day, the Cat. 2 Coll de Bóixols, 15.8km at a little over 5%. It’s not an easy climb but coming as early in the stage as it does, it probably won’t inflict too much damage on the bunch. From the top the stage is downhill or flat for almost the rest of the day. The final half-kilometer does angle upwards somewhat, but at a gradient of less than 4%.

The profile shouldn’t be too much of a challenge for the sprinters still in the peloton, and with so few opportunities for bunch finishes in this Vuelta, we can expect the sprinters’ teams to put in a lot of effort keeping the early breakaway on a tight leash. Plus, Stage 13 is a perfect stage for the breakaway, and that could see some of the top long-range protagonists keeping their powder dry for a day.

In the likely sprint scenario, John Degenkolb is the clear favorite in terms of peak ability, and despite having not yet won a stage in the Vuelta a España, he does look pretty good in the form department, if not at 100%. He nearly won Stage 10 despite having horrible positioning in the final 500 meters, and now that Giant-Alpecin will be less focused on Tom Dumoulin (who no longer holds the red jersey), Degenkolb should get a better leadout for the sprint. Barring a crash, it’s hard to see anyone beating Degenkolb here.

Kristian Sbaragli will certainly try, and will come into this stage bolstered by the fact that he’s already bested Degenkolb once in the race. It would be a pretty big surprise if he can double up, as Degenkolb is significantly quicker in a headsup battle, and there are others who can probably match Sbaragli as well if they can position themselves a bit better this time around.

One of those riders is José Joaquín Rojas. He couldn’t best Sbaragli on Stage 10, but the Italian veered in his direction in the finale of that sprint, making it much harder for the Spaniard to come around—so I’m not sure how great of a marker that performance was. I expect Rojas to place very highly here, and the slight gradient at the finish should suit him.

Tosh Van der Sande has looked strong so far in the race, and managed to come in 4th on Stage 10 after opening his sprint far too early. He could challenge again here. Jean-Pierre Drucker should be in the mix as well.

Danny Van Poppel is lacking in the versatility department and has not featured yet in the sprints at the Vuelta, but he should be able to hang on to contest the sprint here, and will have a nice shot at a stage win against this field.

José Goncalvez, Carlos Barbero, Maximiliano Richeze, Daniele Bennati are others with a chance at Stage 12 success.

VeloHuman Stage 12 Favorites

1. John Degenkolb | 2. Kristian Sbaragli | 3. José Joaquín Rojas

Don’t miss the latest Recon Ride podcast episode, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. The preview of the next stage will be up after the conclusion of Stage 12.

September 2, 2015
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 11 Preview

Stage 11: Andorra la Valle › Cortals d’Encamp – 138km

The Vuelta a España visits Andorra for Stage 11, and some are calling it the hardest Vuelta stage ever. I haven’t reviewed every Vuelta stage since 1935 to really get a clear, definitive sense of whether that’s true, but it’s certainly going to be really, really hard.

It’s actually a very short stage at just 138km, and none of the climbs are longer than 12km. It’s the steepness and unceasing nature of the climbs that makes this stage such a challenge: from the moment they leave the start line until they cross the finish line, the riders will be ascending vicious uphill gradients or flying down harrowing descents.

The first half of the stage is composed of a trio of Cat. 1s, all of them followed by technical, steep downhills. Then comes the special-category Collada de la Gallina, 11.7km at 8.5%, after which the pack will descend on a gradient about as steep as the one they just climbed.

That quartet of brutal tests would be enough for most mountain stages, but the Vuelta’s 11th stage concludes with a leg-breaking one-two punch. First it’s the Cat. 2 Alto de la Comella, 4km at a whopping 9.5%, and after a quick descent it’s an uncategorized uphill run into the Cat. 1 finishing climb.

Stage 11 finally comes to an end atop the Alto Els Cortals d’Encamp, 8.7km at a 9.1% average gradient.

The Alto Els Cortals d’Encamp is a pretty regular climb—but it’s 8.7km at an average of 9.1%. Taking on two climbs of over 9% in such quick succession after such a tough day will probably see several big names see their GC campaigns go up in flames—there is just no way that everyone makes it up super-steep gradients unscathed.

On such a short stage, the pace is going to be high. In terms of trying to predict who will come out on top on this brutal day in Andorra, it’s already hard enough drawing conclusions from the earlier climbing stages in the race (which really can’t compare to this one), but the fact that this profile is pretty breakaway-friendly will further complicate things. However, this early queen stage will be a good opportunity for anyone who is feeling strong to make a huge statement in the GC fight, so we could see the top favorites testing each other early, and that will make it tough for a breakaway (as will the brutal finishing climb). That being the case, I see the top GC riders as better stage candidates than any individual breakaway candidates, especially since none of the long-range specialists have really established themselves just yet in this Vuelta.

Fabio Aru was the strongest rider on Stage 7 and among the strongest on Stage 9. I’d like his chances better if Vincenzo Nibali were still in the race, and if Mikel Landa were still a GC threat that could potentially go up the road and force others to chase, but Aru should still be a great pick for Stage 11. The final climb suits him well, brutally steep and long enough that he’ll really have a chance to launch a move from a little ways out as is his custom. I wouldn’t be surprised if some of his rivals were watching each other instead of him, giving him a chance to get up the road. The aforementioned Mikel Landa could have a chance as well if the team decides to let him go stagehunting.

Chris Froome did not look good on Stage 7 but came roaring back on Stage 9, suggesting that he’s starting to come around. This isn’t the sort of stage that screams Sky Train, but I think it’s sort of a misconception that Froome can only handle long, low-gradient climbs. He’s among the best in the world on the steep stuff, too, and he’s got more punch than people realize. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him tapping out his own pace early on the final climb only to leave his rivals behind in the finale. Nicolas Roche and Mikel Nieve have looked strong as well, and Sky, a squad that seems to understanding how little benefit there is to be gained from riding in a group on this gradients, will probably green light attacks if either is feeling good.

36-years-old or no, Joaquím Rodríguez has looked unflappable thus far in the Vuelta. He’s played things far more conservatively than expected, but he has also managed to stay right up there on all the important stages in the race. This stage might be a little too hard for the Spanish veteran, but if he can survive until the finale he’ll have a great place to go on the move. He’s a public proponent of Andorran cycling, and will be highly motivated to get something out of this one.

Nairo Quintana suffered a bit in the heat in the first week, but the Vuelta a España is entering cooler territory—and Quintana appears to be heating up. He’ll appreciate the consistently high gradients. Meanwhile, teammate Alejandro Valverde did not look quite as strong on Stage 9 as he had earlier in the week, so it could be Quintana’s time to make a statement.

Rafal Majka finished 5th on Stage 9 and probably has some intention of getting active here on Stage 11. While this profile will be a challenge, he should be fresher than many of the top climbers in the race, having ridden the Tour as a domestique and stagehunter instead of as a GC contender.

As amazing as Tom Dumoulin has been, I have a hard time seeing him staying in touch with the big climbing favorites on Stage 11. He can’t be ruled out, as he has defied expectation so far, but it would be a huge surprise. Esteban Chaves, on the other hand, should actually be pretty well-suited to the finishing climb, if he can recover from a bad day on Stage 9. Domenico Pozzovivo hasn’t been stellar in the Vuelta just yet, but if he can work his way into shape he should be able to get into the mix on this stage.

If the favorites are hesitant to put each other under pressure on this brutal stage, it wouldn’t be too much of a surprise to see someone sneak clear and win this stage from a breakaway. Stage 11 will have huge implications for the King of the Mountains Classification, so anyone with long-term KOM aspirations would do well to jump into the move.

We don’t have much to go on yet in terms of clear markers of climbing form from the long-ranges specialists, but Samuel Sánchez, Cyril Gautier, Jerome Cousin, Omar Fraile, José Goncalvez, Fabio Duarte, Rodolfo Torres, Daniel Navarro, Bart De Clercq, Gianluca Brambilla, Pierre Rolland, and Jurgen Van Den Broeck are all on the long list of riders with potential to play a role from afar on Stage 11.

VeloHuman Stage 11 Favorites

1. Fabio Aru | 2. Joaquím Rodríguez | 3. Nairo Quintana

Don’t miss the latest Recon Ride podcast episode, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis. The preview of the next stage will be up after the conclusion of Stage 11.

September 1, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: Vuelta a España 2015 Show, Part II

Episode 25: Vuelta a España 2015 Show, Part II
The 2015 Vuelta has finally reached its first rest day, giving the riders a chance to catch their breath, and the Recon Ride a chance to take stock of the race so far.

[powerpress]

Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm and Dane Cash of VeloHuman try to make sense of the craziness of the Vuelta a España, and look ahead to what should be a thrilling next six stages in Spain.

Photo by Alcalaina (CC).

September 1, 2015