Tag: 2015

GP Ouest-France 2015 Preview

The WorldTour heads to the Brittany region this weekend for the GP Ouest France. The hilly circuit race is often known by its former name, the GP Plouay, or simply as “Plouay,” the small Breton town where the race starts and finishes (the most recent Recon Ride episode covers this topic, among many others, in depth). Though the event may garner a bit less attention than the concurrently-running Vuelta, it is almost always an exciting race that draws a very impressive startlist, in no small part thanks to its appeal as a stepping stone to Worlds.

The Route

The 229.1km GP Ouest-France takes on the same terrain many times over, via eight laps on a 26.9km circuit and then a single lap on a reduced circuit of 13.9 kilometers.

Each of the long laps opens with a climb of the Côte du Lezot, a little over a kilometer in length and with much of that distance at a gradient in the realm of 6%. From the top, it’s a descent followed by a long gentle ascent up to the Chapelle Sainte-Anne des Bois. After a flat section and then a quick downhill run, the pack will take on the Côte de Ty Marrec, only about a kilometer in length but with a long stretch in the middle nearing 10%.

The final lap of the GP Ouest-France hits both of the major climbs of the longer circuit, with less ground to cover between the two challenges.

The shortened final lap will still look quite familiar, but with much less distance between the two harder climbs. The less challenging trip to the the Chapelle Sainte-Anne des Bois will not be a part of the last lap, which cuts out almost half the distance of the full lap, thereby bringing the ascents of the Côte du Lezot and the Côte de Ty Marrec closer together. From the top of the Ty Marrec it’s a gentle downhill run of about 3km to the finish line.

The Contenders

The GP Ouest-France parcours is deftly balanced in such a way that it’s never quite clear until the final moments of the race whether a late attacker or the sprinters will reign supreme. The course isn’t so hard as to automatically drop the fast finishers from contention, but the Côte de Ty Marrec comes late enough (in a day that is long and challenging enough as it is) to give the aggressive riders a chance at jumping clear of the pack and holding out for victory. In any case, thanks to the flatter finish, a strong sprint is a pretty helpful asset—whether the race comes down to a bunch kick or a small group, anyone hoping to win this race would do well to have some speed.

Greg Van Avermaet has the endurance to come into the finale fresh, the climbing legs and explosiveness to make or join or late move, and the finishing kick to win a reduced sprint. This is a wide open race, but he’s got to be among the top favorites for his versatility. His top-end speed, in particular, has improved over the past few years, to the point where he’s capable of winning a sprint even against specialists on a good day. He’s also got excellent form, having landed 2nd overall in the Eneco Tour. BMC has plenty of other cards to play in this race as well, with talents aplenty to potentially launch constant attacks every time the opportunities present themselves. Philippe Gilbert looks strong right now and is an obvious candidate to go on the move on the climbs, Ben Hermans is on the form of his life and was 7th in this race last year, and Dylan Teuns and Silvan Dillier are even further options for the Belgian squad.

Should a larger group make it to the finish, two riders stand out above the rest as favorites. The first is the rider who won the bunch sprint behind the winning move in last year’s race. Alexander Kristoff can handle a tough course, he’s among the fastest riders on the startlist, and looks to be in good form right now. Giacomo Nizzolo, who was next in line behind Kristoff last year, hasn’t had much luck beating the Norwegian in the past, but this race is a major target for Nizzolo (something he talked about in more detail in the latest Recon Ride) and the potentially messy sprint finale suits him very well. He was runner-up in 2013 to Filippo Pozzato, and has improved his kick since then. Fabio Felline gives Trek a nice alternative.

Etixx-QuickStep, as might be expected for a one-day race, brings a squad full of contenders. Julian Alaphilippe made the Top 10 in 2014 and seems best suited, with strong climbing legs and a fast finish in a reduced kick. Tom Boonen will be the sprinter of choice if this comes down to a bunch gallop, not a bad option to fall back on seeing as he’s on blazing form right now. Tony Martin and Stijn Vandenbergh are others with a shot.

Not to be outdone in the Belgian WorldTour team department, Lotto-Soudal also has options. Tim Wellens, fresh over a convincing Eneco Tour win, may be the most obvious candidate. He certainly has the skillset to thrive here. However, his biggest career successes have come when he has been able to rely on the element of surprise—he’s won the Eneco Tour twice in a row now after showing little in the way of form coming into that race. Whether he can still thrive when all eyes are on him is another matter. If not, Jurgen Roelandts may be the best option: he has actually made the Top 10 in this race three years in a row, and has shown great form this season. Tony Gallopin is another card to play. Jens Debuscherre and Tiesj Benoot are others to watch.

LottoNL-Jumbo doesn’t have quite the team firepower as the aforementioned squads but Sep Vanmarcke is on blazing form and just the sort of rider who might be able to nab a win after a long day of up and down in Plouay. He’s not bad in a sprint, and he’s highly motivated to get something out of a 2015 that has been somewhat disappointing. Moreno Hofland is the main option for the team if the race comes down to a big bunch kick.

Rui Costa was runner-up in 2012 and certainly has the aggressive style to take a win in this race, though he might not be back to 100% after a difficult Tour de France. Diego Ulissi and Davide Cimolai make fine alternatives for Lampre-Merida.

Marcel Kittel certainly deserves a mention as the fastest pure sprinter on the startlist, but it will be extremely difficult for him to make it all the way to the line given his general inability to handle uphill gradients. Sky’s duo of Elia Viviani and Ben Swift, FDJ’s Arnaud Démare, OGE’s Michael Albasini, Movistar’s JJ Lobato, Astana’s Borut Bozic, Europcar’s Bryan Coquard, and IAM Cycling’s Heinrich Haussler will be among the other fast finishers who will hope to hold out for a bunch kick.

Given the parcours and the race history, the list of outsiders who could have a chance with a late attack could encompass the entire roster of riders making the start, but to name just a few: Simon Yates, Ramunas Navardauskas, a strong AG2R tandem of Romain Bardet and Alexis Vuillermoz, Andrea Fedi, Tommy Voeckler, and Arthur Vichot are among the many riders who might be worth keeping an eye on when the peloton approaches the final climb of the Côte de Ty Marrec.

Lastly, VeloHuman’s Under-the-radar contender for the GP Ouest-France: Rasmus Guldhammer of Cult Energy. Guldhammer was 10th in the Vattenfall Cyclassics, showing off his sprinting ability against far more familiar quick men, but he’s also got the climbing chops to survive this parcours. In a reduced field, the former U23 Liège-Bastogne-Liège winner could put up a serious fight for the victory in Plouay.

VeloHuman Top 10 Race Favorites

Winner: Greg Van Avermaet
Podium: Alexander Kristoff, Giacomo Nizzolo
Other Top Contenders: Philippe Gilbert, Julian Alaphilippe, Tom Boonen, Jurgen Roelandts, Tim Wellens, Sep Vanmarcke, Arnaud Démare

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more race analysis, and don’t forget to check out the Recon Ride’s GP Ouest-France pre-rance show!

August 29, 2015
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 8 Preview

Stage 8: Puebla de Don Fadrique › Murcia – 182.5km

The Vuelta’s eighth stage involves far more downhill kilometers than uphill kilometers, but a twice-ascended climb in the latter half of the day will still likely have an impact.

The first 110 kilometers of Stage 8 are almost all downhill as the Vuelta a España descends toward Murcia and the coast. Then comes a flatter stretch of about 30km before the peloton hits the Alto de la Cresta del Gallo, a tough Cat. 3 climb of 4.2 kilometers at a 7.5% average grade. From the top it’s a steep descent down to flatter roads, which wind right back to the foot of the Cresta del Gallo for a second trip up. Then comes another trip back down to the coast. From the point when things even out again at the town of Algezares, it’s just 13km to the finish line.

On the whole, Stage 8 does not involve all that much climbing, but the placement of the climbs makes them hard to overlook. They’ll whittle down the pack significantly, and could also serve as a launching pad for a late attack. If the peloton comes into the finale in a compact group, the sprint will still be among a reduced field.

An in-form Peter Sagan would be a clear-cut favorite for this stage, but since he’s not completely at 100%, it’s a bit of a question mark as to whether he can survive the climbs and fight it out in a sprint. I still see him as the likeliest candidate for success, but it wouldn’t be all that surprising to see him dropped on the first or second trip up the Alto de la Cresta del Gallo. The big GC guns have been extremely conservative in this Vuelta so far, however, and a continued lack of action could help Sagan stay in touch.

John Degenkolb seems a little less likely to make it up and over the final climb, and even if he does he might be too gassed to fight for the win, though he can’t be counted out. Degenkolb is lacking in the form department right now but it would make sense for him to be working his way up to a peak with Worlds approaching, and at his best, Degenkolb would be a top favorite for this stage. Nacer Bouhanni and Caleb Ewan will both have to work very, very hard to hang on over the final climb, though both riders can count on being contenders if they make it to the finish in the lead group.

Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde shouldn’t have any trouble hanging on, and will likely feature in a potential reduced sprint, as he is among the fastest of the GC men. Teammate JJ Rojas is an excellent alternative, but team politics will be the biggest obstacle for him to overcome: he doesn’t get many chances to ride for himself. He may be faster than Valverde in a sprint, but multiple stages in the Volta a Catalunya showed that Movistar isn’t afraid to ask Rojas to brake and let Valverde cross the line first if necessary.

Katusha’s Joaquim Rodríguez would be a great candidate for success with a late attack on the climb if he were showing any interest whatsoever in being active in this Vuelta, but he’s been disappointingly quiet so far in the race. Daniel Moreno may be the stronger stage favorite, as he’s handy in a reduced sprint.

Daniel Martin has the punch to launch a late attack and the fast finish to contend in a sprint. The same is true for Tom Dumoulin, who has looked incredible in the first week of the Vuelta. Jelle Vanendert, Samuel Sánchez, Luis Leon Sanchez, Carlos Barbero, Jose Goncalvez, Jean-Pierre Drucker, Jasper Stuyven, Simon Gerrans, Julien Simon, and Tosh Van Der Sande are others with potential in this finish.

With a finale that isn’t all that well-tailored to the pure sprinters, the breakaway will have its chance at making it all the way on Stage 8. Sylvain Chavanel, Niki Terpstra, Adam Hansen, Cyril Gautier, and Alessandro De Marchi are among the many riders who could thrive from a long-range move.

VeloHuman Stage 8 Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. John Degenkolb

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 8. The VeloHuman overall Vuelta a España race preview is available here. Also, don’t miss the latest Recon Ride, which covers all the big storylines ahead of Sunday GP Ouest-France.

August 28, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: GP Ouest-France 2015 Pre-race Show

Episode 24: GP Ouest-France 2015 Pre-race Show
The Recon Ride takes on the GP Ouest-France, the always-exciting circuit race that starts and finishes in the small Breton town of Plouay, with some help from Giacomo Nizzolo.
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One of the more underrated events on the WorldTour calendar, Plouay’s GP Ouest-France usually offers plenty of thrills, with a parcours that makes it hard to predict whether the race will come down to a sprint or a late attack. Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm take a closer look at the route, the favorites, and the storylines ahead of the race, with a bit of extra insight from Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo, runner-up in Plouay in 2013.

Photo by Renault Sport (CC).

August 28, 2015
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 7 Preview

Stage 7: Jódar › La Alpujarra – 191.1km

The first Cat. 1 summit finish of the 2015 Vuelta awaits on Stage 7. Like Thursday’s stage to Cazorla, Friday’s stage will put the peloton through another long day of rolling hills, but the finishing climb on Stage 7 is considerably more challenging.

For the first 170 kilometers of the day, the road takes on successive stretches of gradual climbs and gradual descents, with a single 9km Cat. 3 the most challenging of the many minor climb along the route. The final 20 kilometers of the stage, however, will offer a real test of uphill strength.

At around kilometer 170, the route angles upwards towards the official start of the Cat. 1 summit finish, the 18.7km Alto Capileira. The climb has an average gradient of 5%, but that doesn’t really tell the full story. The first 6 kilometers are a bit steeper than that average, and then the road flattens out for about 4km, and then it kicks up again for the rest of the way to the line. The final 9km angle upward at closer to 7%, with a particularly steep section near the finish of about 14%.

The Alto de Capileira will be hard enough to put the GC favorites to the test, with the irregular nature of the climb adding to the difficulty. Whether or not the red jersey hopefuls will be doing battle for the stage win as well as for positions on the overall leaderboard is another matter—the profile will be an appealing one for the breakaway. However, it will take a talented group to stay clear on such a tough day, and most of the top climbers in the Vuelta are still in relatively close GC contention, limiting the number of legitimate candidates for long-range success. I like the chances of the GC riders this early in the race.

Movistar’s two-pronged attack won’t be easy for anyone to counter. Alejandro Valverde has not been particularly aggressive so far in this race, relying on his fast finish to take his stage victory, but he has nevertheless looked strong. He knows the area, he is very motivated to build on his early advantage in the GC battle, and he can win with an attack or in a reduced sprint at the top of the climb if there is no separation at the line. Nairo Quintana may be more of a foil than anything right now. Obviously the two-time Tour de France runner-up is a major threat to win any stage with this sort of finish, but he has looked slightly less than 100% at this point in the race, and in the heat of southern Spain. He’s a danger, but more than anything his presence may boost Valverde’s chances.

A week ago I saw Fabio Aru as the favorite for Stage 7, but now I’m not sure how to judge his chances. He should be fresher than the rest of the top GC contenders in the Vuelta who are coming off the Tour de France, he showed nice form in the Tour of Poland, and this stage suits him perfectly, with a nice late launching pad that looks tailored to his skillset. However, he hasn’t looked quite as strong as expected so far in this race, so I can’t quite name him the outright favorite. Still, he’s an obvious candidate for success and it wouldn’t be any surprise if he attacked for the win. Mikel Landa could do damage as well on this climb.

Joaquim Rodríguez is another rider whose form is hard to judge right now—he has missed out on several opportunities so far in this Vuelta, letting others making successful attacks on stages that have seemed to suit him. But that may simply be because Rodríguez is focused entirely on the overall title, unwilling to risk his GC position in the hunt for stage wins. This stage certainly suits him. Daniel Moreno is another option for Katusha.

Chris Froome has quietly ridden very well in the early goings at the Vuelta. For whatever reason, many observers underrate Froome’s peak climbing ability, and I think some are underestimating him here. He’s not at his peak, of course, but if he’s even close to it he’s capable of leaving the entire peloton in the dust. Froome loves to make an early statement, and this is a prime opportunity to do just that on a long climb that suits him well. Nicolas Roche and Sergio Henao are other strong options for Sky.

Esteban Chaves has been brilliant so far in this Vuelta, and while both of his stage victories have involved an element of tactical boneheadedness from the likes of Katusha and Co., they wouldn’t have happened if Chaves weren’t on blazing form. This is a very long climb for the young Colombian to undertake but the likes of Valverde and Rodríguez have shown little interest in chasing him so far and that could be to his advantage yet again if he can survive the long road to the top and make a late strike.

Domenico Pozzovivo, Tejay van Garderen, Dan Martin, and Rafal Majka are others who could be in the mix for Stage 7.

As suggested for Stage 6, keep an eye on Caja Rural and Team Colombia for the likely breakaway contenders on Stage 7. It will be a tall order to hold off the pack on the Alto Capileira, but Pello Bilbao and Fabio Duarte are among those with a shot. Pierre Rolland, Joe Dombrowski, and Samuel Sánchez are other riders who could have success with a long-range strike.

VeloHuman Stage 7 Favorites

1. Alejandro Valverde | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Fabio Aru

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 7. The VeloHuman overall Vuelta a España race preview is available here.

August 27, 2015
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 6 Preview

Stage 6: Córdoba › Sierra de Cazorla – 200.3km

The Vuelta peloton will be tested with another uphill finish on Stage 6, and it should be a real challenge despite there being just two Cat. 3 climbs the menu. It’s not a short stage at 200 kilometers and the finale will be a difficult one.

After 130 kilometers of rolling hills comes the first categorized climb of 12km at an average gradient of a little under 4%. It’s not much but it will put some fatigue into the legs. Following a few more rollers and a descent comes the long climb to the finish line, which will last a lot longer than the official categorized finale. Apart from a few moments where the road evens out, it’s uphill from a little more than 20km out all the way to the line, at an average gradient close to 2% for the entirety of the long uphill stretch, which gets more difficult at the end.

The categorized finale itself starts at around 3km to go, and the climb has an average gradient of well over 6%, with a double digit stretch about a kilometer in that could serve as a nice launching pad for an enterprising climber. The road winds left and right a few times up toward the finish, where the gradient is closer to 7%.

The breakaway has a chance at success on this profile but this early in the race there are plenty of potential contenders still in the GC hunt who should be able to reel in any long-range hopefuls on the lengthy climb toward the finish. Expect the red jersey favorites to go toe to toe in the finale, even if it is only a Cat. 3 ascent.

The length of the stage and the fact that the last 20km are almost all uphill should whittle down the peloton and leave only the specialists in contention. Katusha has two. Joaquim Rodríguez has missed out on more than one excellent opportunity already in this race, but he has looked strong enough from a form standpoint and this will be another chance for him to shine. He needs to be aggressive, but he’ll be heard to catch if he does launch an attack in the finale. Daniel Moreno is a strong alternative, especially if the pack is still together near the top of the climb.

Alejandro Valverde already has one stage win in the Vuelta and has a nice opportunity to take a second (and the accompanying bonus seconds) on Stage 6. He can follow attacks rather than making them because he has so a strong sprint, and that makes him dangerous. Nairo Quintana could be interested in going on the move as well.

Dan Martin isn’t always the best at positioning himself for a timely strike, but if he can work that out he’s got the chops to make a move in this finale. Like Purito, he hasn’t quite delivered on the two stages that have seemed to suit him so far in the Vuelta a España, but form doesn’t appear to be an issue.

Fabio Aru has not been the strongest yet in this race but he has the team to set him up for a late strike and explosiveness to execute, if he’s feeling strong. The same is true for teammate Mikel Landa.

Nicolas Roche has been Sky’s strongest performer so far and could get active again, though don’t count out Chris Froome. He’s quietly looking pretty strong in this race, and he always likes an early opportunity to make a show of authority in a Grand Tour. Sergio Henao is another strong option for the black and blue squad.

Rafal Majka, Esteban Chaves, Samuel Sánchez, Bart de Clercq, and Domenico Pozzovivo are other riders to keep an eye on for Stage 6. Tom Dumoulin will have his work cut out for him defending his red jersey on the steep inclines of the final few kilometers.

If the big GC favorites and their support riders spend too much time looking at each other, the opportunists will have a chance at long-range success, either from the early break or with a late move once the initial break has been swept up. The list of potential candidates for the victory in that scenario includes practically every rider on Team Colombia and Caja Rural. Pello Bilbao and Rodolfo Torres stand out as particularly strong options.

VeloHuman Stage 6 Favorites

1. Joaquim Rodríguez | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Dan Martin

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 6. The VeloHuman overall Vuelta a España race preview is available here.

August 26, 2015
Vuelta a España 2015: Stage 5 Preview

Stage 5: Rota › Alcalá de Guadaíra – 167.3km

The Vuelta’s fifth stage is another day of mostly flat roads leading to an uphill finish. There is not a single categorized climb on the menu. This one should come down to the very end of the stage, where the only really challenges of the day await—after 166 straightforward kilometers with very little in the way of climbing, the peloton will snake through a few corners and roundabouts before hitting an uphill drag of over 5% for the last 500 meters of the day.

The finishing climb is not categorized and it’s not difficult enough to favor an attacker or cause much separation. It will, however, give a slight advantage to the more well-rounded of the fast finishers in the Vuelta peloton.

Peter Sagan will be a favored contender for a third straight day. This finish suits him better than any yet in the Vuelta. It’s not so steep as to give the climbing specialists an edge, but it will definitely put the heavier pure sprinters at a disadvantage. Stage 5 is tailormade for Sagan, and what’s more, he has shown that he’s in sharp form and very interested in getting as much as he can out of this Vuelta. He nearly took a second stage win in as many days on a Stage 4 that finished on a climb that was probably just a hair harder than he would have preferred. Stage 5, with its technical final kilometer, gives him a chance to use all of his manifold skills on the bike to his advantage.

John Degenkolb should be best placed to challenge Sagan at this finish. Sagan has the edge on the steeper gradients but Degenkolb is very handy in a finish like this. Still, he has his work cut out for him. Degenkolb couldn’t keep Sagan from coming around him on a Stage 3 that suited him better. It will be a challenge outgunning Sagan here.

Nacer Bouhanni will have a chance at this stage as well—although he’d prefer a flatter finish, he’s shown an ability to handle more challenging gradients near the line in the past. The question mark for Bouhanni is whether he’s at 100% after multiple crashes.

Jean-Pierre Drucker has a knack for success in messier finishes and this is likely to be a hectic finale. He can’t be ignored as a contender for Stage 5 even against the likes of favorites Sagan and Degenkolb.

Carlos Barbero was not as much of a factor on Stages 3 or 4 as I’d expected, but this stage, with a finish that is tougher than the former but easier than the latter, should suit him best. He’s still a long shot against the big talents he’ll be up against, but this is a profile he’ll appreciate.

JJ Rojas, Alejandro Valverde, Caleb Ewan, Daniel Moreno, Jasper Stuyven, Danny Van Poppel, Vicente Reynes, Simon Gerrans, Tom Dumoulin, and Kristian Sbaragli are others to watch in the uphill sprint that is likely to decide Stage 5 of the Vuelta.

VeloHuman Stage 5 Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. John Degenkolb | 3. Nacer Bouhanni

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 5. The VeloHuman overall Vuelta a España race preview is available here.

August 25, 2015