Episode 20: Clásica de San Sebastián 2015 Pre-race Show Many of the pro peloton’s top climbers and one-day specialists are headed to Spain this weekend to take on the Clásica de San Sebastián. The Recon Ride previews the action, with some help from cycling journo Dave Everett and race contender Bauke Mollema.
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In the latest episode of the Recon Ride podcast, Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm dive into the storylines and discuss the route and the potential favorites of the always exciting Clásica de San Sebastián. Dave Everett provides local insight, while 2014 runner-up Bauke Mollema gives his thoughts on how things might play out this year.
Chris Froome may have effectively sealed his 2015 Tour de France win, but the race reaches its official conclusion in Paris on Stage 21. Only 109.5km in total, the pack starts in Sèvres and then rides about 40km into Paris, where they begin ten laps of an urban circuit, finishing on the Champs-Élysées. The first third or so of the stage is essentially a procession to celebrate the race and Froome’s all-but-sewn-up overall victory. Once the peloton enters the Paris, riders will start to attempt to break clear of the pack for one last shot at glory in the world’s biggest bike race, and then the sprint teams will gradually wind up the pace. Things get very fast in the final few laps.
The final kilometer of the circuit has a large s-curve that veers left and then right again with around 500 meters to go, but after that it’s a straight run to the line where we can expect a high-speed sprint finale.
With a bit of rain in the forecast for the afternoon, there is a slight chance of wet roads at the finish.
Though the Tour’s final stage always starts out with relative calm, the stage victory in Paris is the most valuable stage win in the sport for the sprinters. There will be plenty of attempts to get clear on the urban roads, but don’t expect any attackers to get too much room. The Champs-Élysées is all about the quick men and a big bunch kick.
On results, one sprinter has been head and shoulders above crowd in this Tour: André Greipel. In a mass sprint, Mark Cavendish, the only rider who has beaten Greipel in a previous bunch kick in the 2015 Tour, looks to be the only one with a real chance of taking him on again on Stage 21.
Greipel definitely has the edge on win record so far in the 2015 Tour—Greipel has a three-to-one win advantage in that department. He’s been on terrific form so far in this race. However, both of Greipel’s first two stage wins came against a poorly-led-out Mark Cavendish, and Greipel’s third win was against a field that did not include Cavendish, who had been dropped from the pack much earlier in the day. Prior to this Tour, the younger Cav has typically had the better of Greipel. In short, there are reasons to like Cavendish’s chances despite his relative lack of success so far.
Both riders are without their main leadout men going into Stage 21, with Lotto-Soudal’s Greg Henderson and Etixx-QuickStep’s Mark Renshaw both having abandoned the race. I see this as almost a dead heat, but based on peak ability and past performances on the Champs-Élysées, I give a very, very slight edge to Mark Cavendish, who has won on this stage plenty of times before.
Behind the two top-tier sprinters in this Tour are plenty of hopeful quick men hoping to steal the day—but it’s hard to like anyone’s chances in this high-speed finale other than the two fastest riders in the race. Peter Sagan has come close in the bunch sprints, in the Top 4 of each of the race’s four bunch kicks so far with two close runner-up rides among those results. For all the talk you’ll hear from observers about him “not being a pure sprinter,” Sagan has an impressive turn of speed and can never be counted out, especially after a few days in the mountains that might have softened the legs of his rivals.
The same is true of John Degeknolb, who ran 2nd behind Greipel on Stage 15. He’s gotten better as the race has gone on, and, as he’s among the toughest sprinters in the peloton, he will probably be less depleted from the Tour’s visit to the Alps than most. Alexander Kristoff has not been as strong in this Tour as he was last year, but he came close to a Champs-Élysées win behind Marcel Kittel in last year’s Tour and also has endurance in spades.
Arnaud Démare, Bryan Coquard, Tyler Farrar, Michael Matthews, and Edvald Boasson Hagen are others who will have a chance at success in the bunch gallop that will likely close out the 2015 Tour de France.
VeloHuman Stage 21 Favorites
1. Mark Cavendish | 2. André Greipel | 3. Peter Sagan
As Stage 21 is the final stage of the race, this is the last VeloHuman preview of the 2015 Tour de France. I’ve had a blast previewing every day of the Tour, and I have particularly enjoyed hearing from those of you who have reached out to talk racing, to ask for an opinion on your favorite long shot, or just to say hello! I hope you’ll continue to stay connected by following @VeloHuman on Twitter and by checking out the VeloHuman Facebook page.
While the Tour may be reaching its conclusion, VeloHuman is nowhere near done for the year! There are still previews and podcasts to come and plenty of favorites and outsiders to be named for big races like the Vuelta a España, Il Lombardia, and the World Championship Road Race, so even after the last rider crosses the finish line on the Champs-Élysées, stay tuned for a whole lot more in 2015. The race preview and the pre-race podcast for the always exciting Clásica de San Sebastián are only a few days away!
Stage 20 is the Tour’s final mountain stage, and the only stage in the race to feature two HC-rated climbs. Those two uphill tests are the only categorized climbs on the day, but they’re plenty challenging by themselves.
It’s a very short stage at just 110.5 kilometers, so expect a high pace all day. After a downhill run of 25km from the start the road angles upward in the form of the now-familiar Col de la Croix de Fer, though this time they approach the summit a different way.
The peloton may have gained some familiarity with the Col de la Croix de Fer after Stage 19, but that won’t offer much comfort during the 29km ride to the top.
The trip upward will span 29km at 5.2%, with a few steeper sections early on and then near the top.
After the riders crest the climb, they’ll head downhill for about 30 kilometers into a short stretch of flat road, which leads into the foot of the final mountain climb of the 2015 Tour de France: Alpe d’Huez.
The legendary Alpine test is 13.8km in length with an 8.1% average gradient. It is at its steepest at the beginning of the climb and then with around 3 kilometers to go. Things even out a bit near the top for a final kilometer at just over 5%.
The Alpe d’Huez is the final opportunity for the climbers to leave their mark on the 2015 Tour de France.
The profile isn’t a terrible one for the early breakaway, and if a strong group gets up the road they will have a chance, but most of the big favorites from afar have spent a lot of time in the breakaways in the past two stages, and that could leave them low on fuel. The GC men, especially if they wind it up early to put pressure on each other, have a good chance of fighting it out for the final mountain stage in the Tour.
Nairo Quintana put some time into Chris Froome on Stage 19 and will look to do so again on Stage 20. For Froome, the goal is simply to not lose 2 and a half minutes on the stage. Froome didn’t look totally cooked on Stage 19 and was probably playing things conservatively, limiting the damage reasonably well—but the young Colombian is nevertheless closer to yellow than he was before. That could have Froome planning to take Stage 20 as safely as possible.
If he decides to attack Quintana, Froome’s an obvious danger for stage win, but with the Tour de France on the line, that seems like a risky proposition. What’s more, Quintana, benefiting a great deal from having Alejandro Valverde as a foil, might just be stronger now anyway. If this does come down to the GC favorites, it’s hard to see anyone challenging Quintana for Stage 20.
Alberto Contador will likely give it a shot. He’s way too far down on Froome to be a threat, but the podium is not completely out of reach, and a stage win would be something of a consolation prize for Contador, whose Tour has fallen very short of his expectations. He’s not strong enough to beat Froome and Quintana head-to-head but there’s a chance he’s given enough of space that that won’t matter too much.
Stage 19 winner Vincenzo Nibali could obviously have aspirations of breaking clear of the GC group once again, and he’s certainly looked stronger in the past few days than he did at the start of the race. But he’s not likely to get nearly as much breathing room as before now that he’s in contention for the podium, and he’s bound to pay somewhat for his efforts on Stage 19.
Robert Gesink sits nearly 9 minutes behind Froome on GC, and he has nearly 4 minutes of cushion to the next rider on the leaderboard. If he feels strong on the final climb, don’t be surprised if he tries to leave the GC men behind to go in pursuit of a stage win. Even if his bid fails spectacularly, he’s got plenty of time to lose to drop even one spot inside the Top 10.
Romain Bardet has enjoyed two great stages in a row, with a win on Stage 18 and a top 5 placing (and plenty of KOM points racked up) on Stage 19. He’s certainly strong right now, and he’s far enough behind on GC that he’ll be given some space if he wants to go for a long one. It’s hard to predict how he’ll play the stage—in his quest for the KOM title, the points on the Croix de Fer won’t actually be all that important if Froome ends up placing highly on the final climb. Bardet can’t afford to wear himself down too much and not be in contention for a decent placing at the finish. As such, his strategic decisions should be more focused simply on whether he thinks he has a better chance at a high stage placing (and the accompanying KOM points) from the pack, or in the break. Sticking with the peloton until the final ascent and then launching a move could be the best tactic. In any case, after two days of exhausting himself, Bardet is likely to be bringing a bit of fatigue into Stage 20, so it will be a big challenge for him to take a victory, especially with stronger GC favorites and fresher potential breakaway candidates having their eyes on the same prize.
Joaquim Rodríguez is in a similar boat, but he has not looked the best in the past two stages. The veteran racer could still recover, however, and unlike Bardet he conserved energy after the breakaway was reeled in on Stage 19, so don’t be surprised if he gives a long-range attack another go on Stage 20.
Pierre Rolland has plenty of form in this Tour de France but two days in a row of exhausting solo efforts won’t have left him with much energy to try for another on Stage 20. Then again, everyone will likely be tired and Rolland isn’t a threat to the overall, so he may find success if he saves energy by riding in the pack until the final climb, and then goes for a long one on the early slopes.
Thibaut Pinot stayed with the GC men for the entirety of Stage 20, which, first, suggests that he is feeling strong right now, and second, will likely leave him a bit fresher than Bardet, Rodríguez, and a number of other likely breakaway contenders. That could serve him well for a long-range move, though he hasn’t quite had the strength to turn in a victory so far.
Jakob Fuglsang was one of the few big-name potential breakaway favorites to completely save his energy on Stage 19, dropping out of the GC group early, and he’s looked strong enough in this Tour that he may have a chance with a long one on Stage 20. The question for Fuglsang will be whether he gives it a shot at all. Now that Nibali is fighting for the podium, Astana may call for all hands on deck in support of the Italian GC contender, which could leave Fuglsang playing domestique. If he goes on the attack, he’s a dangerous rider.
Rigoberto Urán, Rafal Majka, Ryder Hesjedal, Andrew Talansky, Cyril Gautier, Adam Yates, Serge Pauwels, Samuel Sánchez, Warren Barguil, Mathias Frank, and Rafael Valls are other names to watch for a long-range strike on Stage 20.
VeloHuman Stage 20 Favorites
1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Alberto Contador
Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the final stage of the 2015 Tour after the conclusion of Stage 20.
Episode 19: Tour de France 2015 Show, Part III With only five stages left in the Tour de France, this one’s for all the marbles. The Recon Ride looks back at the last week of racing, and previews the Alpine stages and the Paris finale of the 2015 Tour.
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The biggest race of the year is just five stages from completion. Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm analyze the current race situation and the GC picture, and talk favorites and outsiders for the final five stages of the 2015 Tour. CyclingTips news editor Shane Stokes, on the ground at the race, joins the show to offer an insider perspective on cycling’s main event.
Greg Van Avermaet snagged a hilltop victory in the Tour’s 13th stage, and more hills await on Stage 14. The day opens with 44 kilometers of roads that slope gently upward, with a short Cat. 4 climb along the way. Then comes a fast descent into a very long (about 80 kilometers) stretch of flat roads, which could see the peloton taking a relatively leisurely approach after several tough days on the bike. With about 40km to go in the stage, things get bumpy again. First comes the Cat. 2 Côte de Sauveterre, 9km at 6%. After the downhill and then a short flat section comes the Cat. 4 Côte de Chabrits, followed by another downhill into the final climb. The Cat. 2 Côte de la Croix Neuve, 3km at 10.1%, is short but extremely challenging test.
Before the riders reach the Stage 14 finish line in Mende, they’ll have to overcome the steep Côte de la Croix Neuve. Anyone feeling a bit below 100% will be found out quickly on the double-digit gradient.
It’s steep throughout, especially near the midway point. From the top of the climb it’s about 1.5km of flat to the finish, with a sharp right-hander and then a hard left on the way to the line.
Stage 14 will be yet another breakaway-friendly stage—an up-and-down finale and a late climb that is far too hard for the sprinters are typically good ingredients for a successful long-range move. Still, this final climb might even be hard enough to inspire the GC teams to set up a high pace to set up a late battle. If the pack fights it out for the win, only the strongest climbers will be able to survive the Côte de la Croix Neuve to be in the mix for a stage win via either a move on the steep stuff or a very reduced sprint. The last time the Tour finished here, Joaquim Rodríguez, Alberto Contador, and Alexandre Vinokourov were the first three riders across the line. The potential breakaway scenario (which looks to be about a 50/50 proposition) will give the less Alpine-inclined riders a better shot at stage success, but strong climbing legs will still be very important on a final climb with an average gradient over 10%.
Joaquim Rodríguez will be among the top favorites in this explosive finale if he’s in the lead group, and the fact that he’s well behind on GC and now potentially in the hunt for breakaway wins makes him all the more dangerous. The profile of the majority of the stage (the relatively easy first 140 kilometers, that is) isn’t one that stands out as a likely jumping off point for a Purito breakaway, however, so it’s not a given that he’ll get up the road. He’s a favorite, but there are so many other factors at play on this stage besides the puncheur-friendly finish that make it impossible to name anyone a no-doubt contender.
Given his performances so far, Alexis Vuillermoz will be a rider to watch closely on Stage 14. The extreme gradient of the final climb suits him very well, and he’s especially dangerous given his ability to get up the road, as he’s not a GC threat. Teammates Romain Bardet and Jan Bakelants might be hoping to get involved too.
Dan Martin did not perform as well as expected on Stage 13 but he could bounce back for a bid at Stage 14 success. The finale is probably a bit hard for him against the top GC favorites but he’ll have a shot from the break. Teammate Ryder Hesjedal will likely be on the lookout for opportunities to get into the breakaway mix as well.
Pierre Rolland tends to target stages with bumpier profiles throughout for his long-range moves, but a finale with plenty of launching pads for a classic Rolland attack make him impossible to count out. Compatriot and Europcar teammate Thomas Voeckler will also have a shot if he can get into the day’s breakaway.
Michal Kwiatkowski, Adam Yates, Rafael Valls, Jakob Fuglsang, Rafal Majka, and Julián Arredondo are other strong long-range candidates for Stage 14.
Of the riders whose stage hopes rest within the pack, Alejandro Valverde is certainly among the favorites—the steep late climb will drop all the non-elite ascenders from contention, and the flat finish will give Valverde a chance to use his top-notch sprint. His biggest obstacle will be reining in the inevitable attacks from his rivals. This may be only a Cat. 2, but it’s steep enough that it could spur Chris Froome into action—he was very strong on the Mur de Huy and this longer trip up suits him even more. Despite his firm hold on the yellow jersey, Froome has not seemed particularly interested in allowing the other riders at the top of the GC leaderboard opportunities to shorten the gap. Valverde’s teammate Nairo Quintana and the always dangerous Alberto Contador will also be in the mix if this comes down a GC battle.
Geraint Thomas, Robert Gesink, Bauke Mollema, Tony Gallopin, and Greg Van Avermaet (who is climbing better than ever) will be hoping to hold on on the steep stuff for a potential reduced sprint on the short section of flat that precedes the finish line. The Côte de Sauveterre is probably too hard for Peter Sagan, but don’t count him out entirely—despite his inability to win a stage so far in the Tour, he’s on great form at the moment.
Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 14.
Joaquim Rodríguez’s Stage 12 win closed out three straight days with late HC-rated climbs, and now the Tour de France transitions to a stretch of slightly less mountainous stages—but that doesn’t mean things will get all that much easier. Stage 13 is a relatively long, hilly day with three categorized climbs (a Cat. 3, a Cat. 4, and a Cat. 4) in the last 70 kilometers. The final official climb comes 30km from the line, but it’s followed by a short uncategorized bump and then a longer one to La Primaube, just 10km from the finish. From there it’s downhill until the final 2.5km, where the road flattens out until 570 meters from the line. Then things kick sharply upward at a 9.6% gradient to the finish. The final drag to the line is not categorized, but it’s the sort of challenge that will serve to dramatically reduce the speed of heavier sprinter-types in the final moments of the stage.
A bumpy parcours late on in the stage and a finale that isn’t all that sprinter-friendly both favor the chances of the early breakaway. A tired peloton, limping along after three brutal days in the Pyrenees, could bid good riddance to the riders up the road. Then again, there aren’t a whole lot of stages for the fast finishers in this race, and that could inspire those teams with more versatile quick men to try to keep this one under control for the uphill sprint at the end of the day. Stage 13 looks to be yet another day where the outcome of the breakaway vs. peloton battle will be extremely tough to predict. In any case, the favorites for success will be punchy finishers with the endurance to still have something in the tank after a long day of racing, with those capable of winning from afar holding an extra advantage over those who will need to stay in the pack to have a shot.
Peter Sagan seems as likely as anyone to win Stage 13, though the nature of the profile makes it hard to call him a “favorite.” The finale is steeper than he’d prefer but the high-gradient stretch is short enough that his impressive finishing kick should outweigh (figuratively) the fact that he’s heavier than the more specialized puncheurs in the race. Sagan is on terrific form at the moment and this stage presents a fine opportunity for him to pick up a victory. He also can’t be ruled out as a possible long-range contender.
This should be an excellent day for Tony Gallopin: hilly with a sting in the tail, but not so mountainous as to bring the GC favorites sailing past on the high gradients. Ignoring other race circumstances, punchy, aggressive Gallopin would look the perfect candidate for a stage win. However, Lotto Soudal may decide that André Greipel has a chance in a potential sprint, even with this gradient (which I think is too steep for him), which could leave Gallopin riding a support role. Moreover, Gallopin’s decent GC position could keep him from getting involved in a potentially stage-winning breakaway. He will still be among the most dangerous riders to watch on Stage 13, but there are factors that may be a bit beyond his control that could hold him back.
Greg Van Avermaet has been in the mix on several stages so far in the 2015 Tour, and has climbed admirably to high placings on days with short steep finishes. This certainly qualifies. With the number of hilly days on tap, Van Avermaet has a great chance of coming away with a victory soon—if he sees this as a good opportunity, he could try to get into an early break, and that makes him especially dangerous.
Edvald Boasson Hagen has also put in several good rides so far, and this bumpy parcours suits him very well. He doesn’t quite have the finishing kick he used to, but he’s got a sharp eye for opportunities to escape the pack, and this is a good profile for such a talent.
Dan Martin will be a top favorite either from a breakaway (and he showed on Stage 11 that he’s not afraid to get up the road) or from the bunch in an uphill sprint. This finale is tailormade to his talents. He’s come close to success several times so far in this race—if he can manage to position himself better on Stage 13 than he has on previous stages, Martin has the explosiveness to take a win. Teammate Ryder Hesjedal could have a shot as well. He’s got more punch than many realize, and has a knack for getting into breakaways at this point in his career.
EQS has several very strong options for the stage. It’s probably too steep for Mark Cavendish, but Zdenek Stybar should thrive on the final climb. Matteo Trentin and even Rigoberto Urán could be in the mix as well. Michal Kwiatkowski, at his best, would love this stage, but after a brutal day in the breakaway, and not on top form, it seems unlikely that Kwiatkowski will be able to mount that much of a challenge for stage honors.
Katusha’s, Joaquim Rodríguez might also be a bit too tired after his Stage 12 win to try another day in the breakaway, but the steep kick to the line does suit the punchy Spaniard.
The Tommy Voeckler of 2015 is a far cry from the Tommy Voeckler of 2012, but the Stage 13 profile suits him nevertheless. Compatriot Sylvain Chavanel has been actively battling to get into the breakaway so far in the 2015 Tour, and could look to get aggressive on here. This intermediate stage looks good for his skillset. Another Frenchman, the explosive Alexis Vuillermoz, is deadly on the high gradients and capable of getting into a move if he sees the opportunity. He’d probably prefer a longer drag to the line, but will still be one to watch on Stage 13.
John Degenkolb has flashed impressive ability even on the very steep stuff during his career, but this will be a bigger challenge than he’d prefer, and for him to have any chance at winning, the stage will have to come down to a sprint, which isn’t even close to a given. He’s still got to be among the favorites in that scenario, but it’s going to be a tough ask for the versatile German. Bryan Coquard, Michael Matthews, Davide Cimolai, and Alexander Kristoff are other versatile fast finishers whose chances will rely on this stage coming down to a sprint from the peloton, though should that happen, they’ll also have to fight with a number of aforementioned puncheurs and the more explosive GC types, with Alejandro Valverde far and away the biggest name in that department. In an uphill bunch kick, expect the Flèche Wallonne winner to shine. Few riders on this startlist are as well-suited to a finish like this.
VeloHuman Stage 13 Favorites
1. Peter Sagan | 2. Greg Van Avermaet | 3. Tony Gallopin
Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 13.
