Tag: 2015

Tour de France 2015: Stage 12 Preview

Stage 12: Lannemezan › Plateau de Beille – 195km

With Rafal Majka’s stage victory in Cauterets, the Tour de France is two thirds of the way through a hard stretch of climbing days in the Pyrenees. Stage 12 should provide a thrilling Pyrenean finale. After 40 easy kilometers to start, it’s up and down all the way to the line. First up is the steep Col de Portet-d’Aspet, 4.3 kilometers at a vicious 9.7%. For a Cat. 2, it will be an unpleasant way to kick off what is set to be a very difficult day. From the top it’s about 20km of downhill to the foot of the Cat. 1 Col de la Core, 14.1km at 5.7%. It’s a climb that starts out relatively easy, but the final 8 kilometers are a bit more difficult, steadily above 6%. The descent from the summit runs to the town of Oust, where the road kicks up gently again on the way to the official start of the Cat. 1 Port de Lers climb, 12.9km at a 6% average gradient.

A very long descent follows before things flatten out for a short stretch before the road angles upward sharply—the Plateau de Beille finishing climb is one of the hardest challenges the riders will face in the Tour de France. 15.8 kilometers at 7.9%, it’s a long, steep trip up. It’s a mostly steady climb at least, but that won’t provide much comfort seeing as the gradient is high the entire way up, except at the very top where things flatten out in the final run to the line.

It may not have the name recognition of Stage 11’s Tourmalet, but Stage 12’s Plateau de Beille climb is an extremely difficult mountain test.

With so many vertical meters to overcome on the day and a finishing climb like the Plateau de Beille, Stage 12 is one for the pure climbing talents. There have already been plenty of testing days so far in this Tour de France of course, but there really isn’t any margin for weakness on Stage 12, which will find out those lacking fitness early, and make them pay all the way to the finish.

The profile should offer the breakaway a chance at success, and many of the likely escape candidates kept their powder dry on Stage 11; a strong enough group of aggressors has a chance at success here. However, this is the final day of high mountain racing for a little while, which will likely inspire hostilities among the GC types. What’s more, the final climb will require a significant gap for the breakaway to outlast any determined chasers. A breakaway of less-than-elite climbers isn’t likely to have much of a chance, and even one made up of top talents is going to have a hard time staying clear.

Chris Froome is far and away the strongest climber in the race right now, and he happens to enjoy the support of the strongest team as well. If he wants this stage, it’s hard to see anyone stopping him. The question is whether he’ll put in the effort with nearly 3 minutes of an advantage over his nearest rivals. He didn’t shy away from padding his GC lead in the 2013 Tour even after a dominant Stage 8 win, but there is no guarantee he’ll stick to that strategy here. Sky could also give Richie Porte or Geraint Thomas a chance to ride for a stage victory if Froome’s top lieutenants are still with him near the summit finish.

Nairo Quintana looked better on Stage 10 than he has all race, notching a 3rd-place finish on the stage, and he should continue to improve after an early bout with illness. At his best, he is probably one of the few riders capable of matching Froome on a finish like this. He will benefit from having a teammate high up on GC: Movistar’s one-two punch is a deadly weapon in this Tour, and the riders in dark blue will need to play all their cards if they want any hope at the Tour GC title now that Froome is already so far ahead—watch out for Alejandro Valverde here too.

Robert Gesink was surprisingly the 4th best finisher on Stage 10. If he can hold on with the top GC riders all the way up to the top of the finishing climb, he’s not bad in a reduced uphill sprint (his surprise win in the GP Québec in 2013 can attest to that). Compatriot Bauke Mollema made a nice jump from the pack to pick up a few seconds on Stage 11—he too has a nice finishing move and could get in the mix on Stage 12.

Alberto Contador is clearly not at his strongest in this Tour on the heels of his Giro win, but he can’t be counted out on an HC-rated summit finish. Tejay van Garderen was not really in with a chance at the stage victory on Stage 10’s climb to the line, but he rode well and could put in a good performance on Stage 12 if the pace is kept relatively steady in the finale.

Pierre Rolland finished ahead of Contador and van Garderen both on Stage 10, and he was right with the GC men on Stage 11. Unlike the aforementioned riders, high on the General Classification, Rolland is over 13 minutes down on Chris Froome on the overall leaderboard. If he wants to go for this from afar, he should be given a chance. He kept his breakaway powder dry on Stage 11, and while it’s always a challenge predicting who will get into the long-range moves, if Rolland can get some space on Stage 12 he’ll be a top favorite.

Rafal Majka didn’t keep any powder dry on Stage 11, riding all the way to a stage victory, but he looks to be on sharp form right now and could go for another long one here.

Joaquim Rodríguez lost a big chunk of time on Stage 11 and is not even on the fringes of the GC conversation anymore. It’s hard to say what that means for his form. If he’s only a little off of 100%, he could just be saving up for a big mountain push, so don’t count him out on this stage which would seem to suit his skillset.

Adam Yates, Jakob Fuglsang, Rafael Valls, Thibaut Pinot, Ryder Hesjedal, Dan Martin, Alexis Vuillermoz, Louis Meintjes, and Romain Bardet are others on the very long list of riders whose stage victory chances are boosted by the fact that they’ll probably be given some breathing room to go on the attack from far out on Stage 12.

VeloHuman Stage 12 Favorites

1. Chris Froome | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Pierre Rolland

Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 12.

-Dane Cash

July 15, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 11 Preview

Stage 11: Pau › Cauterets – 188km

Stage 10, the Tour’s first mountain stage, provided the first real glimpse into the climbing form of the GC names in this race, with Chris Froome making the biggest statement of them all on the slopes of the final ascent (as Whit Yost predicted he would in the most recent episode of the Recon Ride podcast). Stage 11 will provide the uphill specialists with another opportunity to put their skills on display.

The first half of the stage will see the riders heading gradually skyward, taking on three not-that-difficult climbs on the way, before things get extremely difficult after the midway point of the day. First comes the 12km, 6.5% Col d’Aspin. From the top, the riders will fly down a descent and right into the foot of the HC-rated Col du Tourmalet, 17.1km at 7.3%. The legendary Tourmalet starts out at lower gradients, but things really kick up after the first third of the climb, with the gradients starting to hit double digits about halfway up.

The stage does not end at the Tourmalet summit, however. After crossing the line at the KOM, the pack will head downhill for over 30 kilometers, before reaching the Cat. 3 Côte de Cauterets, 6.4km at 5%. The finish awaits a little over 3km after the that climb.

There are plenty of places on Stage 11 for the climbers to go on the move, and it will be extremely difficult to control the race with so much up and down. After a brutal Stage 10 and with another challenging Stage 12 on tap, with plenty of now-former GC hopefuls significantly down on the General Classification, and with a boatload of KOM points on offer long before the line here, this will be a great opportunity for breakaway success, either from the main early move, or from a later strike on the slopes. Sky is probably not going to be interested in keeping the breakaway on a short leash, meaning that only a concerted effort by the teams further down on the GC leaderboard will keep this in check. As usual on days that offer the long-range attackers such a strong chance at success, Stage 11 will be very hard to predict, with aggressive climbers looking to be the best bets for victory.

If the peloton takes a reserved approach to the Tourmalet, the more enterprising riders will have a prime opportunity to get clear and hold out for the win on Stage 11. One of the sport’s foremost breakaway conneisseurs, Pierre Rolland, finished among the Top 10 on Stage 10, ahead of both Tejay van Garderen and Alberto Contador, among others. Over 10 minutes behind on the General Classification, Rolland won’t threaten Sky, and he shouldn’t not threaten those vying for podium spots either. Stage 11 has a great profile for Rolland, one of cycling’s best when it comes to constant ups and downs.

Tony Gallopin finished just behind Rolland on Stage 10, an incredible performance for the versatile Frenchman. The Tourmalet is a brutal climb, but the way Gallopin has been riding, he could survive the challenge the contend for the win at a finish that suits him perfectly—the big question for Gallopin will be whether the other GC hopefuls in the Top 10 will give him any breathing room to go on teh move; it seems crazy that Gallopin could be considered a threat into the Pyrenees, but the held onto a great position so far, and anyone looking to secure a Top 5 finish in this race could see him as a danger. If he’s in the lead group before the final climb (whether that’s a breakaway group or the pack), Gallopin should be a top favorite for a stage victory.

Stage 11 also looks great for Joaquim Rodríguez, who could use the late climb as a launching pad or alternatively, hold out for a sprint if he’s at the head of the race at the end of the day—but Rodríguez did not look good on Stage 10. The Grand Tour veteran is a decent bounce-back candidate though, and now that he’s well out of GC contention, he could be given some breathing room to go on the move.

Rafael Valls appeared to take over team leadership from Rui Costa of Lampre-Merida on Stage 10, and he put in a bold long-range attack early on during the final climb to the line. Valls is something of an unknown quantity, only just starting to ride at this level this season, but if he can muster his impressive talents to get into a breakaway, I think he has a great chance of pulling off a big surprise here; and don’t count out Costa, who does tend to thrive on a parcuors like this.

A glance at the Stage 10 results doesn’t tell the whole picture about Warren Barguil’s form right now—he finished over 3 minutes behind Froome on the day, but that’s after coming back from a late crash that cost him serious time. The climbing legs look to be there in spades right now, and at over 6 minutes back on the GC, Barguil may get some freedom to attack. His two-stage-win 2013 Vuelta was a master class in mountain breakaway riding, and he could be in the hunt for a long-range strike here.

A now-down-on-GC Vincenzo Nibali, Dan Martin, Julian Arredondo, Michal Kwiatkowski, Thibaut Pinot, Romain Bardet, Bauke Mollema, Laurens Ten Dam, Alexis Vuillermoz, both Simon and Adam Yates, and potentially even Peter Sagan are just a few more of the many riders on the list of potential stage-winners well-positioned to make something happen either from the bunch or in a long-range move now that big gaps have opened up on the GC leaderboard.

If this comes down to a pack finish, Alejandro Valverde will be among the top favorites with a potential reduced sprint on tap. He came close to stage victory on the Mûr-de-Bretagne climb, he’s looked better these past few days than he did at the start of the race, and the collective firepower of Movistar makes him very dangerous. Robert Gesink, who finished an impressive 4th on Stage 10, has both the form and a nice finishing kick to be a danger here as well.

It will be interesting to see whether the big GC hopefuls decide to be active on the Tourmalet, so far from the finish. If so, Chris Froome and Nairo Quintana will be obvious favorites to resume hostilities, with Froome looking to have the edge after the first round of mountain dueling. Alternatively, Alberto Contador and Tejay van Garderen could look to regain some time here with a late strike, though it own’t be easy escaping the dominant Sky train right now.

VeloHuman Stage 11 Favorites

1. Pierre Rolland | 2. Tony Gallopin | 3. Alejandro Valverde

Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 11.

-Dane Cash

July 14, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 10 Preview

Stage 10: Tarbes › La Pierre-Saint-Martin – 167km

The Tour’s first rest day gave the peloton an opportunity to get some much-needed time off (and it gave the Recon Ride time to record the second of three Tour de France podcast episodes, which includes plenty of race analysis worth listening to!), but the mountains of Stage 10, the first real climbs of the race, will be a rude awakening for the bunch.

The trip from Tarbes to La Pierre-Saint-Martin in the Pyrenees will be a relatively short one at 167 total kilometers. The first 140 of those kilometers won’t offer much in the way of challenging topography—three Cat. 4 climbs dot the profile along the way from the start of the stage to the foot of the final climb.

That final climb will be the hardest uphill test so far in this Tour de France. La Pierre-Saint-Martin is a 15.3-kilometer ascent at an average gradient of 7.4%. The most difficult section comes about half-way through, a 4km stretch at over 9%. Then things ease off a bit, before another quick steep section near the summit, where things even out again close to the line.

The La Pierre-Saint-Martin finale of Stage 10 will likely be the first real GC showdown of the 2015 Tour.

With two more tough mountain days to follow, Stage 10 could have some riders planning to take things easy. Expect the early breakaway to open up a big advantage over the first hundred kilometers. Plus, July 14th is Bastille Day—the many French riders in the peloton will be more motivated than ever to get some TV time at the head of the race, and it could be a crowded fight to be in the day’s big move. On the other hand, the bunch will probably amp up the pace on the flat stretch that leads into the foot of the last climb, and then the challenging finale will likely see any riders up the road losing a lot of time to a chasing pack. In short, the breakaway has a shot here, but it will be a challenge holding off the peloton.

The difficulty of this climb to the finish will likely bring out the top climbers in the race. Chris Froome, enjoying the GC lead at the moment, certainly fits that description. Froome built his 2013 victory on a dominant early-stage performance, and could be looking to do the same here. His impressive team should put him into a good position to strike in the finale, if he is so inclined—he does already have the yellow jersey though, and that could inspire him to be a bit more conservative, allowing the others to do the attacking.

Nairo Quintana has not been at his best so far in the Tour, but he should be starting to come good at this point in the race, especially after a rest day. Almost 2 minutes down on GC, Quintana may be given a bit of breathing room by the other favorites if he gets up the road—and even if his GC rivals aren’t inclined to let him up the road, it may not make much of a difference to one of the world’s best climbers. Quintana’s teammate Alejandro Valverde is also an obvious candidate to make something happen on Stage 10.

Alberto Contador’s ability to hang with the top climbers in his race after a tough Giro has been a major question mark so far. After Stage 10, we’ll have some answers. Based on what he’s shown up to this point, I’m expecting Contador to be able be in the mix, but would be surprised if he’s among the very top finishers on the stage. This is even truer for Vincenzo Nibali who struggled on Stage 8.

Joaquim Rodríguez is in excellent form at the moment. He might be looking to launch a move on the steeper sections of the final climb. Alternatively, if he’s able to stay at the front of the race, he’ll be a favorite in a potential sprint to the line at the top of the climb.

Tejay van Garderen was one of the few riders in Chris Froome’s stratosphere in the Dauphiné. He’s climbing better than ever this season, and has a strong support squad around him. If this comes down to a GC battle on the slopes of the final climb, expect van Garderen to be in the mix. Unfortunately for van Garderen, Froome is eyeing him closely given his current position on GC, and that will make it hard for him to get clear in the finale.

Thibaut Pinot will be a rider to watch on France’s National Holiday. He’s no longer much of a GC threat, but the form has certainly been there this year—that makes him a dangerous rider who could try to go for a long one. Compatriots Romain Bardet and Warren Barguil could also look for opportunities to get clear as well.

Alexis Vuillermoz has put in some big rides on tough mountain stages recently and could be in the mix either with an early attack or a late one. Pierre Rolland has not looked his usual self so far in the Tour, but he could bounce back in a breakaway here. Ryder Hesjedal, Julian Arredondo, Adam Yates, Louis Meintjes, and Rafal Majka are other riders to keep an eye on in a potential long-range move scenario.

VeloHuman Stage 10 Favorites

1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Thibaut Pinot

Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 10.

-Dane Cash

July 13, 2015
The Recon Ride Podcast: Tour de France 2015 Show, Part II

Episode 18: Tour de France 2015 Show, Part II
In the second of three Tour de France podcast episodes, the Recon Ride dives into the action of cycling’s biggest race.
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Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm take a look at the Tour de France narrative so far, and preview the challenging days of racing just around the corner.

Photo by Victor van Werkhooven (CC).

July 12, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 7 Preview

Stage 7: Livarot › Fougères – 190.5km

Zdenek Stybar made the most of a small gap earned on a late climb to come away with a stage victory on Stage 6, denying a charging pack of chasers on his tail. Many of those same chasers, along with a number of the heavier quick men they left behind on the final ascent, will be hopeful for another chance at glory on Stage 7. The 190.5-kilometer road from Livarot to Fougères includes just one categorized climb, a Cat. 4 in the first 15 kilometers. After that, it’s gentle rollers and stretches of flat all the way to the finish.

There are a few twists and turns and roundabouts inside the last 10 kilometers, which lead into a finishing straight that angles slightly uphill in the final few hundred meters. With several GC-oriented days (in the form of a few climber-friendly stages with a team time trial squeezed in among them) just around the corner at the Tour de France, Stage 7 will be a prime opportunity for the sprinters to fight for a victory before their aspirations take a backseat for a while to the hopes of the yellow jersey contenders.

Coming into the Tour, Mark Cavendish looked to be the strongest sprinter in the race, but he’s been beaten twice now by André Greipel, making the pecking order of fast-finishing elite in this race a bit less clear. In both of Greipel’s wins, though, the leadout did not go according to plan for Cavendish, leaving the Manx sprinter in the wind for far too long—that makes it difficult to draw concrete conclusions about this matchup in terms of pure speed. On the other hand, Greipel’s acceleration on Stage 5 was quite an impressive sight by any measurement, and the way he blew past Cavendish in the final few hundred meters makes it hard to ignore just how strong he is right now.

In short, I see this as pretty close to a dead heat. If I had to deem one the favorite, I’d still name Cavendish the rider to beat. QuickStep has, amazingly, won two stages and taken the yellow jersey in the first week of the Tour de France all without a Cavendish victory. If they can finally muster all their talents toward setting their sprinter up for a high-speed finish, he’ll be hard to beat. If not, Greipel has shown that he’s quite capable of taking advantage of the opportunity.

In terms of racking up near misses at stages that seem to suit him perfectly, Peter Sagan has picked up in this Tour de France right where he left off in the 2014 edition of the race. He’ll have another chance here, and in fact, I think he has a better shot that the profile might suggest. With a slight incline at the very end of the day, a few late roundabouts that favor his strong positioning skills, and the terrific form he’s shown in the sprints these past few days, he should be in the mix for the win even against the likes of Cavendish and Greipel.

John Degenkolb would probably prefer a more challenging approach to the line but he brings a lot of speed to the table in any scenario and should be able to fight for the win. Like Sagan, he’s had multiple near-victories, and is extremely motivated to finally take that elusive victory. Alexander Kristoff has been a bit slow to start in this Tour but he was in the mix on Stage 5 and this stage suits him well. Arnaud Démare, Greg Van Avermaet, Sam Bennett, Bryan Coquard, Davide Cimolai, and Edvald Boasson Hagen are others who should have a shot here.

VeloHuman Stage 7 Favorites

1. Mark Cavendish | 2. André Greipel | 3. Peter Sagan

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 7. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.

-Dane Cash

July 9, 2015
Tour de France 2015: Stage 6 Preview

Stage 6: Abbeville › Le Havre – 191.5km

With André Greipel’s second 2015 Tour win now in the books, the peloton is set to take on a 191.5-kilometer journey along the coast from Abbeville to Le Havre on Stage 6. The profile should set up an interesting contest.

There are only three categorized climbs on the road from start to finish, all of them Cat. 4s, and none of them inside the final 25km—but this is a rolling parcours throughout that could make things difficult to control. The finish is the most intriguing part of the stage. Inside the final two kilometers the road kicks upward on the Côte d’Ingouville, 850 meters at 7%, before mostly flattening out for the final half-kilometer or so. It’s not a categorized challenge, but it’s steep enough to put the heavier sprinters at a big positioning disadvantage before the last few hundred meters, and that’s assuming a large group comes to the finish in the first place.

A strong breakaway could have a chance on this profile, especially given the fact that some of the punchier favorites who could thrive in the finale ride for teams with GC interests, teams that might be less interested in wasting energy giving chase to a group up the road. However, with bonus seconds on offer at the line and a relative dearth of stages with opportunities for the less Alpine-inclined in this Tour de France, there should be decent motivation within the pack to keep this together at least into the final few kilometers, from which point it will be anyone’s game.

If he’s well-positioned coming into the final few kilometers, Peter Sagan should be able to handle the late climb and thrive in a somewhat reduced kick. He’s nearly won two sprint stages against the very fastest riders in this Tour de France already; with a bit of help from gravity on the uphill drag near the line on Stage 6, he’ll be very hard to beat. His biggest challenge, as it often is, will probably be other aggressive types trying to steal a march from the peloton a bit further out than the finishing straight—with Contador’s GC aspirations as Tinkoff-Saxo’s primary focus in the race, the team may not be inclined to put in the effort to control the race in the finale. Sagan will need to be alert here.

Lotto Soudal has had a great Tour so far and will have another opportunity for success on Stage 6. André Greipel is obviously on blazing form, having already nabbed two victories in this race. But with the late climb, Tony Gallopin may be the team’s best option here. Having landed an impressive 5th place on the Stage 3 Mur de Huy finish, ahead of some very strong climbers, he has the right mix of uphill ability and explosiveness to be in the mix, especially if there is action in the last few kilometers. This finale suits him very well.

Greg Van Avermaet should appreciate this opportunity to pick up an elusive Tour stage victory. The climb should be just hard enough to jettison some of the heavier types while still allowing Van Avermaet to survive and potentially jump clear. The Belgian is on excellent form right now.

John Degenkolb tends to put in good performances on stages with slightly uphill finishes, but I’m not sure how well he will handle the 7% gradient. That’s a bit steeper than he might like, and with so many strong puncheurs on the startlist, he will have his work cut out for him holding on if some of the better climbers put the pressure on. If he can hold a strong position in the finale, he’ll be deadly, but it won’t be easy.

Alejandro Valverde, on the other hand, would probably prefer a slightly more difficult finale, but he’s a danger regardless. He’s been particularly effective this season in reduced sprints this season, and the bonus seconds on offer on this stage should be great motivation to put in some effort here, though his form is a bit of a question mark after an underwhelming visit to the Mur de Huy on Stage 3. A stronger performance there might have me more confident in his chances here.

An in-form Edvald Boasson Hagen should like the look of this stage. It’s been a long time since he took a big victory but a good result should be well within his reach—he outgunned the likes of Degenkolb and several other strong sprinting favorites on Stage 5 and Stage 6 suits him even better. Michal Kwiatkowski has been a bit underwhelming so far in this Tour de France, but the Amstel Gold Race winner is always a danger on this sort of profile and will be a rider to keep an eye on—he knows how to get clear of a bunch when the opportunity presents itself, and he’s also got a great turn of speed if things stay relatively compact over the final climb. His EQS teammates Matteo Trentin and the surprisingly fast Rigoberto Urán may be dangerous in the finale as well. Mark Cavendish may find the late climb too steep, but if the peloton plays it conservatively, he might have a shot of holding on. Trek teammates Julian Arredondo and Bauke Mollema both rate as strong outsiders for me—they’re known for their climbing prowess but both pack a punch in a finishing kick like this. Sep Vanmarcke, Zdenek Stybar, Bryan Coquard, Joaquim Rodríguez, the Cannondale duo of Dan Martin and Ramunas Navardauskas, and the Lampre-Merida duo of Davide Cimolai and Rui Costa are others to watch.

VeloHuman Stage 6 Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Tony Gallopin | 3. Greg Van Avermaet

Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race. Check back for the preview of the next stage after the conclusion of Stage 6. The VeloHuman overall Tour de France race preview is available here.

-Dane Cash

July 8, 2015