Episode 60: 2016 Offseason Show
With the 2016 WorldTour in the books, the Recon Ride preps for a few months without top-level racing, and looks ahead to the coming season as well.
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Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm close out the 2016 podcasting campaign with a show focused on the offseason and also the year of racing to come.
Photo by ian_woodhead1 (CC).
After several worlds road races made for the puncheurs, climbers, and classics specialists, the 2016 world championship should come down to a bunch sprint. The Doha parcours does not much in the way of challenging topography, but if you’re a fan of mass gallops, this is a rainbow jersey battle you won’t want to miss.
Barring a race shortening for extreme heat, the men’s peloton will ride 257.5 kilometers Sunday in Qatar. The first 150 kilometers of the race will take the riders through the desert before they enter a twisting circuit on the manmade Pearl island in Doha. Though there are no climbs to speak of along the route, seven laps of 15.2km with plenty of hairpins and corners could certainly see some hectic racing.
The final 2km of the circuit are not without handling challenges, meaning that the expected sprint will require finesse in addition to speed—there is a right hairpin leading into the final kilometer, which then swings gently to the right on the run-in to the line. Positioning will be key in the waning moments of the race.
I see four riders as being the most worthy of favorite status in Doha: the top three fastest sprinters of the last few years – Mark Cavendish, André Greipel, and Marcel Kittel – and the reigning world champ, Peter Sagan.
To me, Cavendish seems best-positioned for the rainbow jersey given the excellent season he’s had and a course that puts handling and acceleration at a premium. The way he dominated the Tour’s sprints, it’s hard not to like his chances in Qatar.
German teammates Greipel and Kittel are worth watching too, of course, though each comes with question marks. Greipel can disappear in tricky finishes and hasn’t had quite the season in 2016 that he had in 2015, while Kittel, despite his incredible speed in peak form, just hasn’t looked at his best this year. Both are dangerous regardless, as is German John Degenkolb.
Sagan is the wildcard. He’s not quite as speedy in a pure sprint after a shorter Grand Tour stage, but anything goes after 250km and in a hectic finale. I expect Sagan to perform very well given his knack for placing highly in this sort of race, even if the win seems like a lot to ask.
Beyond those big names are several second-tier speedsters hoping to steal the show. Fernando Gaviria of Colombia and France’s Nacer Bouhanni are the two biggest names for me. Both showed by reaching the final kilometer of Milano-Sanremo this year that they can handle distance (though Gaviria crashed out of that race) and both have terrific acceleration. At the end of a long season, things could get unpredictable, and they seem most likely to take advantage if the likes of Cav and Greipel miss a beat. Arnaud Démare and Bryan Coquard are great alternatives for France should Bouhanni find himself lacking on the day.
Alexander Kristoff has not had a perfect year but few riders have his power in a fast finish after a long day. Giacomo Nizzolo and Elia Viviani give Italy a nice combination. Caleb Ewan and Michael Matthews are a terrific dynamic duo for Australia. Dylan Groenewegen and Danny van Poppel look strong for the Netherlands, while Belgium has Tom Boonen and Jens Debuscherre for a sprint.
Meanwhile, Greg Van Avermaet will be looking to surprise the sprinters with a late attack. Also watch out for the likes of Niki Terpstra, Zdenek Stybar, Edvald Boasson Hagen, and Magnus Cort Nielsen if an opportunity for an escape arises late in the afternoon.
Winner: Mark Cavendish
Podium: André Greipel, Peter Sagan
Other Top Contenders: Fernando Gaviria, Marcel Kittel, Nacer Bouhanni, Caleb Ewan, Alexander Kristoff, Michael Matthews, Arnaud Démare
Episode 59: World Championship Road Race 2016 Pre-race Show
Has it really been a year (more, even) since Peter Sagan won his rainbow jersey in Richmond? The world title is up for grabs again in Doha, Qatar, and the Recon Ride is here to preview the course and the favorites.
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The sprinters get their shot at the rainbow jersey Sunday in Qatar. Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm take a closer look at the route, the startlist, and the storylines, with some help from veteran cycling journo Andy Hood…
Saturday’s long race from Como to Bergamo is the last chance for the climbers to nab a big result this season. Always a scenic event and typically quite entertaining, Il Lombardia should be especially interesting this year as the race looks wide open for the taking.
The 2016 edition of Il Lombardia looks harder than ever, with climbs aplenty dotting the 241-kilometer route. After 100 rolling kilometers comes the Valcava climb, hard enough to force a selection in a grand tour, and then four short but steep ascents in rapid succession. Then comes a long descent to the final kick, the Bergamo Alta, just over a kilometer at nearly 8%. From the top, it’s less then 4km to the finish, most of that downhill.
Serious climbing ability and descending skills alike will be critical for anyone hoping to win this race. Bad-weather bike handling ability could come in handy as well, with a potential for rain in the forecast, and a fast finish may be necessary should things end in a reduced sprint on the short stretch of flat road that closes out the day. In other words, this is a race for a true all-rounder.
2015 champ Vicenzo Nibali isn’t racing this year, opening things up a bit. Alejandro Valverde, normally a good place to start the favorites conversation, is apparently coming into the race after having been sick. His form is questionable. Daniel Moreno, second last year, may be a better option for Movistar—though his form is a bit of an unknown as well.
Two-time former champion Joaquím Rodríguez is another name with plenty of career success in this race—but he too comes into Il Lombardia with question marks. Returning to racing from months of “retirement,” Purito can hardly be expected to be in top shape. He’s worth watching, but others seem to be stronger contenders.
For me, 2014 winner Dan Martin is as worthy a top favorite as any. He has looked to be in great shape this year, but at the same time, he has yet to take any really big victories all season, so the motivation should be high. The course may be a bit too climber-friendly, but he has plenty of punch for the finale. Julian Alaphilippe is a terrific option for EQS as well. His performance at the European Championships would suggest the form is there, while Gianluca Brambilla is yet another card to play.
Astana may be without Nibali, but Fabio Aru gives them a top favorite in his stead. Aru isn’t the most explosive rider and his one-day résumé is not particularly inspiring, but it’s hard to count him out for a mountainous race in Italy, especially with talented teammates Diego Rosa and Miguel Ángel López at his side.
Rigoberto Urán has gotten away from his early career successes in the one-days, but he’s had a nice year and appears to be enthusiastic about seeking results in the Classics now. This is a great race for him.
Esteban Chaves is another top pick for a number of prognosticators, though I’m not sure I am as sold on his chances. He’s obviously a great climber but he has never focused on one-day racing and this is not just any one-day event, either. Simon Yates is another option for Orica.
Rui Costa and Diego Ulissi give Lampre a nice one-two punch. Ditto for Tim Wellens and Tony Gallopin at Lotto-Soudal. Sky is loaded with options in Wout Poels, Mikel Landa, and Michal Kwiatkowski. Robert Gesink, Wilco Kelderman, Tom Dumoulin, Romain Bardet, Bauke Mollema, Fabio Felline, Rafal Majka, Philippe Gilbert, and Greg Van Avermaet are others to watch.
Winner: Dan Martin
Podium: Alejandro Valverde, Fabio Aru
Other Top Contenders: Rigoberto Urán, Julian Alaphilippe, Joaquím Rodríguez, Rui Costa, Diego Ulissi, Esteban Chaves, Wout Poels
Photo by corto.maltese (CC).
Episode 58: Il Lombardia 2016 Pre-race Show
The final Monument Classic of 2016 is upon us! The Recon Ride previews the usually exciting and always scenic “race of the falling leaves.”
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Dane Cash of VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm take a closer look at Il Lombardia, the last WorldTour event of the year, with some help from Ciclismo Internacional’s Pablo Martín Palermo.
The final WorldTour stage race of 2016 is here. The Eneco Tour is a one-weeker for the one-day specialists, with cobbles, crosswinds, and punchy climbs aplenty. With a very strong startlist lining up in the Low Countries this week, this year’s edition of the race should provide plenty of entertainment.
The Eneco Tour doesn’t have any high mountains, but it makes up for the lack of serious climbs with a diverse array of stage types. Things kick off with a flat stage before the Eneco Tour peloton dives into an individual time trial of just under 10km. Then it’s two more flat stages before the stage 5, which has the potential to have a huge impact on the race at over 20km.
The final two stages will likely be the deciders. Stage 6 takes the riders through Belgian Limburg and the Ardennes on very hilly roads, while Stage 7 closes out the race with a classic day on classic Classics roads. The finale finishes halfway up the inconic Mur.
This is a pretty wide-open event with several teams bringing two or even three more than viable candidates. 2015 winner Tim Wellens seems like a fine place to start, though defending his jersey will be a real challenge. He’s got the tactical know-how and the climbing chops to be competitive, but the time trials will be tough.
The TTs should be a major boon, however, for BMC. Greg Van Avermaet has come close to winning the overall in the past and given his form right now and the likelihood of a great TTT from BMC, he’s got a nice chance this year. Rohan Dennis and Taylor Phinney are quality alternatives for the red and black squad.
EQS also has plenty of options. Tony Martin, Zdenek Stybar, Bob Jungels, and Niki Terpstra are all candidates for the overall who can rely on a strong TTT setup and either proven classics talent or big engines that translate well to this kind of racing.
It’s hard to judge Peter Sagan‘s chances, given his questionable motivation at a race like this, but he’s riding and he’s got the talent for a GC bid. Tom Dumoulin, Geraint Thomas, Michal Kwiatkowski, Wilco Kelderman, Fabio Felline, Tony Gallopin, Michael Matthews, Edvald Boasson Hagen, and Ion Izagirre are others to watch out for in the GC battle.
The list of sprinters in attendance this week in the Low Countries may be the most imprrssive for any stage race all year. Mark Cavendish, André Greipel, and Marcel Kittel headline the field, with Giacomo Nizzolo, Arnaud Démare, Elia Viviani, Caleb Ewan, Nacer Bouhanni, and Alexander Kristoff all likely in the mix on the flatter days too.
Winner: Greg Van Avermaet
Podium: Tom Dumoulin, Zdenek Stybar
Other Top Contenders: Rohan Dennis, Tim Wellens, Tony Martin, Bob Jungels, Michal Kwiatkowski, Geraint Thomas, Niki Terpstra