Tag: 2016

Stage 9: Cistierna › Oviedo – 164.5km

Sunday’s stage is a tricky one to predict, with an up-and-down parcours that favors aggressive riding. The two Cat. 2s and three Cat. 3s are enough to favor the stronger climbers, though it’s hard to say whether it’ll be the GC men or the stagehunters leading the way at the line.

The final ascent of the Alto del Naranco, 5.7km at 6.1%, will likely draw some GC action, but none of the climbs are long or steep enough to motivate a serious chase in the peloton.

I think the breakers have a nice chance to take the victory, though it’s hard to name any one potential long-range protagonist who seems as likely to win as the one or two standout names who have a shot in the bunch.

Luis León Sánchez has been very active so far in this Vuelta en route to a pair of top 5 finishes, and this stage suits his talents well. Astana should be all in for stage wins, which means Sánchez should be looking for opportunities to either get into the early, or a late move on the final climbs.

José Goncalves has been active as well. I think it’s only a matter of time before he makes it into the right escape. He’s got a nice punchy finish that will come in handy if he’s near the front at the end of the day.

Simon Clarke has made his presence known early on in the race and I expect him to continue to fight for any results he can—Cannondale needs them as the season is nearing its close. Jan Bakelants, Thomas De Gendt, Alexandre Geniez, Fabio Felline, and Philippe Gilbert are others to watch from afar.

Gianluca Brambilla is a strong candidate for stage success who falls somewhere near the dividing line between the GC men and the stagehunters. He’s too close on GC to be ignored in an early breakaway, but he has the potential to get into a long-range move if one gets clear within the last 50km or so.

Alejandro Valverde is the obvious favorite for a GC-oriented battle. The climb isn’t hard enough to blow the red jersey group apart, and Valverde’s sprint makes him deadly. His teammate Daniel Moreno and countryman Samuel Sánchez also have potential in a punchy finish, as does Simon Yates. Nairo Quintana, Chris Froome, and Esteban Chaves are all worth keeping an eye on as well, of course, but I’d be surprised to see any of them taking the stage victory on this final climb.

VeloHuman Stage 9 Favorites

1. Luis León Sánchez | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Gianluca Brambilla

Stage 8: Villalpando › La Camperona – 181.5km

Finally, the Vuelta serves up a real mountain stage. Unfortunately, the first 170 kilometers are featureless, with the Cat. 1 finale the only climb on the menu.

In other words, don’t expect much action until the final half hour of the day. At least the Alto de la Camperona is an interesting climb. Overall, it’s 8.5km at 7.4%, but the difficulty really ratchets up after 3.5km. There’s a 25% section leading into the fourth kilometer of the ascent, followed by a brief flat stretch, and then it’s about 3.5km of mostly double digit gradients all the way to the top, with several sections over 20%.

Stage 8 will be a crucial GC day for sure, though whether the stage win comes down the red jersey hopefuls or the breakers is harder to say. All things considered I’d give the GC men a slight advantage on the first real GC day of the race, but it’ll be close.

If it is the overall contenders leading the way at the finish, there are four names I see as worthy of favorite status: Chris Froome, Alejandro Valverde, Esteban Chaves, and Nairo Quintana—in that order.

Froome has a tendency to look for opportunities to get ahead early, and this certainly is one. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him fall out of the GC group somewhere midway up the climb and then storm back to the lead near the top. In peak form, he’s head and shoulders above the competition, and even in Vuelta form he’s dangerous.

So is Alejandro Valverde, who has been winning the early stages of the battle among the top contenders so far in the race. This stage will be a real test of form, but he’s shown plenty up to this point, enough that I favor him over Quintana among the Movistar riders. Quintana has the talent, but he has been quiet thus far in the Vuelta. Esteban Chaves has been the more impressive Colombian through the first week.

Alberto Contador is obviously one to watch as well, but the nasty fall he took in Stage 7 makes him a bit less likely as a favorite in my eyes. Darwin Atapuma, Andrew Talansky, Samuel Sánchez, Leopold König, and Simon Yates are all candidates for success as well, though it’d be a surprise if they can outmuscle the likes of Froome and Valverde.

Among the potential long-range protagonists, José Goncalves, Thomas De Gendt, Alexandre Geniez, Rubén Fernández, and Igor Anton all stand out, though it’s anyone’s guess who actually makes it up the road on a stage like this.

VeloHuman Stage 8 Favorites

1. Chris Froome | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Esteban Chaves

Stage 7: Maceda › Puebla de Sanabria – 158.5km

Another day at the Vuelta, another hilly-but-not-too-hilly profile. Stage 7, just like the last several days, could very easily go to the early break or a late move. It could also go to one of the several fast finishers on the start list with decent climbing legs.

The late Cat. 3 isn’t particularly intimidating, but it is followed by a long descent. That will give any attackers (either from an early break or in a late move) a nice shot to stay clear as the sprint teams take time getting organized.

Still, there are a few teams with versatile speedsters on the roster, enough to motivate the bunch to chase—as such, it’s probably worth starting with the likes of Gianni Meersman.

He’s proven to be the rider to beat in the sprints in this Vuelta, and he’s got a great skillset for this sort of stage. It’s up to team cooperation to make this a sprint, but he’s deserving of favorite status in that scenario.

Fabio Felline is another rider capable of surviving the parcours and getting into the mix in a sprint. Trek also has Niccolo Bonifazio, giving the team two great options.

Kristian Sbaragli, Tosh Van der Sande, Magnus Cort Nielsen, and Nikias Arndt are other candidates for a sprint.

Philippe Gilbert is one to watch on that last climb. Punchy as he is, this a great profile for him, and he’s got the speed to win a reduced sprint.

The same could be said for Alejandro Valverde. He’s looked very strong in this race. He’s not a candidate from the early break like Gilbert might be, but he’ll be deadly if there aren’t many riders left by the time the bunch pulls into the final 25km.

José Goncalves, Luis León Sánchez, Simon Clarke, and Zdenek Stybar are others to keep an eye on in an attacking scenario.

VeloHuman Stage 7 Favorites

1. Gianni Meersman | 2. Fabio Felline | 3. Philippe Gilbert

Stage 6: Monforte de Lemos › Luintra – 163.2km

Before the Vuelta began, I expected Stage 6 to be the first breakaway day in the race. Now it’s set to be the third.

The profile is perfectly suited for the long-range attackers, with no super-hard climbs but plenty of up and down. There’s only one categorized climb, a Cat. 2 that begins at kilometer 105, but it’s followed by two more uncategorized lumps likely to make it tough for the sprinters to stay involved. That, coupled with a finish that shouldn’t have much of a GC impact, should reduce the impetus of the peloton to chase.

The hardest thing about previewing this stage is trying to predict who will be in the break. Several names come to mind as likely long-range hopefuls, and a few others come to mind as strong contenders who at least have the potential of getting into the move.

Philippe Gilbert seems as good a place as any to start. He showed both form and motivation attacking the peloton at the end of Stage 5, and this stage profile suits him well. He can win a reduced sprint if he’s in the lead group at the right time.

So can Fabio Felline. This is a great profile for the Italian. It also suits his Trek teammate Kiel Reijnen.

I’m expecting Caja Rural to be very active in Stage 6. They have multiple options, with Jose Goncalves and Pello Bilbao standing out the most to me. It’s never easy to predict which Caja Rural rider will be in a break, but you can be assured they’ll try to get someone up the road.

The long list of possible candidates who might win this stage from afar (or from the peloton, for that matter) also includes: Zdenek Stybar, Luis León Sánchez, Thomas De Gendt, Simon Gerrans, Simon Clarke, Jan Bakelants, and Enrico Battaglin.

Should this come down to the bunch after all, beware the versatile Gianni Meersman, who is on fire in this race. If he’s not there at the finish though, Alejandro Valverde and Michal Kwiatkowski are riders who might be in the mix.

VeloHuman Stage 6 Favorites

1. Philippe Gilbert | 2. Fabio Felline | 3. Jose Goncalves