Tag: 2016

Tour de France 2016: Stage 19 Preview

Stage 19: Albertville › Saint-Gervais Mont Blanc – 146km

A breakaway is never a sure thing, but Friday’s stage looks great for the early escape, coming on the heels of a tough TT, with a profile that should make the racing hard to control, and a mountain stage still on the horizon to temper the pace among the GC riders.

Though there are strangely no KOM points on offer at the summit, the uncategorized opening climb could day’s move could jump clear. From there the riders will have to deal with four categorized ascents en route to the finish line atop the final challenge. The last two climbs are the most important of the stage. The HC rated Montée de Bisanne probably comes too far from the line to spring a winning move, but at 8.2% for 12.4km, it will definitely whittle down both the break and the GC men.

The finishing climb, 9.8km at 8%, will likely see any organized groups shatter into ones and twos. It’s not that long, but I expect it to favor the real climbing specialists.

Rafal Majka is a great candidate for success in Stage 19. I’ve said before that I see him as the best climber out of the obvious breakaway types right now, and that makes him a strong contender here.

The same is true for Ilnur Zakarin, who looked brilliant in Stage 17. He’s really shown himself to be a top-notch climber of the course of the last year and a half.

I have a hard time rating Jarlinson Pantano’s chances, but he’s certainly a rider to watch. Three weeks ago I might have said this stage was a bit challenging for Pantano to be a top favorite but he’s looked so good in this Tour that the sky is really the limit right now.

Vincenzo Nibali, Pierre Rolland, Dani Navarro, Rui Costa, Warren Barguil, and Tom Dumoulin are others who stand out as clear long-range candidates, while Tejay van Garderen, now 17 minutes down on GC, might be a rider to watch from the breakaway at this point as well.

Should this come down to the GC men, Chris Froome is an obvious favorite, though if he follows the approach of past Tours de France he may be content to play things relatively conservatively now. That makes Richie Porte especially dangerous, given how strong he’s looked the past few days. Fabio Aru, Romain Bardet, and, of course, Nairo Quintana are others who could find themselves in the hunt for the stage win.

VeloHuman Stage 19 Favorites

1. Rafal Majka | 2. Ilnur Zakarin | 3. Chris Froome

July 22, 2016
The Recon Ride Podcast: Tour de France 2016, Part III

Episode 49: Tour de France 2016 Show, Part III

The Recon Ride breaks down the last five stages of the 2016 Tour de France, which should provide plenty of action to close out the year’s biggest race.

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Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano take an in-depth look at where we stand after two weeks of Tour racing, and make a few predictions about how things will play out in the final few stages.

Photo by Ian Grandjean (CC).

July 19, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 13 Preview

Stage 13: Bourg-Saint-Andéol › La Caverne du Pont-d’Arc – 37.5km (ITT)

After a bizarre Mont Ventoux thriller, I’m expecting something a bit more straightforward Friday in this Tour’s first of two time trial stages.

The 37.5km route is not overly difficult. The two main challenges come at the start and at the end of the day. The road angles upward from the get-go in the range of 5% for 7km. Then things are quite flat before a high-speed, not-that-technical downhill at around 24km. After that, it’s another flat stretch and then a final ascent to the line that starts off steep for a brief moment before easing up.

I see this as a stage for the big engines, and there are plenty in attendance—though for the first time in a long time, there is no clear-cut favorite for a traditional time trial at the Tour.

For me there are as many as six riders who could potentially win the chrono. I’ll start with my (very) prohibitive favorite, Tony Martin. He hasn’t been the dominant TT specialist of old recently, but he also hasn’t had many opportunities to time trial over 20km this season, except in the German nationals, which he won. On this big stage I do expect him to shine. The course suits him well.

Tom Dumoulin is the other rider I put atop my group of six potential winners. Like Martin, he excels in long time trials, and he doesn’t mind a few hills thrown in. He’s obviously on terrific form (his Stage 9 win proved that) so another victory would be no surprise.

Rohan Dennis and Fabian Cancellara should be in the mix as well. It’s been a bit of a quiet Tour for both riders thus far, but they both have the talent to win.

Chris Froome and Richie Porte have not had quiet Tours. Both could be tired from climbing Ventoux at full speed Thursday, but I still think the stage win is a possibility. Froome is being tipped by many for the stage—I personally think Porte is even better in the TT these days, as it’s been a very long time since Froome did much against the clock in a big race, but it’s impossible to know just how Porte is feeling after the crash in Stage 12. He didn’t look great at the finish. If he’s not too hindered by lingering injuries, Porte could win the TT.

Outsiders for the stage win include Vasil Kiryienka, Ion Izagirre, Tejay van Garderen, and Thibaut Pinot.

VeloHuman Stage 13 Favorites

1. Tony Martin | 2. Tom Dumoulin | 3. Chris Froome

July 15, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 12 Preview

Stage 12: Montpellier › Mont Ventoux – 178km

Thursday’s stage was supposed to be the day the GC contenders really clashed for the first time in this Tour, but windy weather in France has forced the organizers to shorten the stage—what was originally set to be a finish atop Mont Ventoux is now a finish 6km earlier at the Chalet Reynard. Given Ventoux’s odd geographic situation, far from any other serious climbs and therefore the only really hard ascent on the profile, that reduces the impact the stage will probably have.

Stage 12 will be still be a big challenge, however, as the now 14km finishing climb is still plenty steep. Plus, I think the racers will be starting to feel a need to pressure Chris Froome, who seems to pick up time every day. And by “the racers,” I mostly mean Nairo Quintana. There’s a chance this stage comes down to long-range attacker, but I think the Froome vs. Quintana showdown will be the main even Thursday.

I’m going to give Froome the slight edge. He’s beaten Quintana here before, and I’ve seen little so far this race to suggest he can’t do it again, though it certainly wouldn’t be a big surprise if Quintana were to nab the day.

I do expect attacks from the likes of Richie Porte and Romain Bardet to garner the attention of their rivals, which could make it hard to get away, but they’ll have a shot. Fabio Aru and Joaquím Rodríguez might get a bit of breathing room, making them dangerous. Personally, I’ll be watching to Dan Martin and Adam Yates to see if they can really hack it on a climb like this. Yellow is a real possibility for either of them if Froome is too focused on Quintana to chase.

There’s also a decent chance of a breakaway winner in Stage 12. Rafal Majka would be my top favorite there, with Thibaut Pinot, Rui Costa, Vincenzo Nibali, Steve Cummings, and Thomas De Gendt as other options.

VeloHuman Stage 12 Favorites

1. Chris Froome | 2. Nairo Quintana | 3. Rafal Majka

July 14, 2016
Tour de France 2016: Stage 10 Preview

Stage 10: Escaldes-Engordany › Revel – 197km

Tuesday’s stage is a tough one to forecast thanks to a small climb late in the day, though the rest of the stage will probably be relatively mundane. The Port d’Envalira is one heck of a climb but it comes so early in the action it’s not going to have much of an impact on the racing other than probably setting up the early break.

Then it’s a long descent and about 130km of mostly flat roads before the Côte de Saint-Ferréol, 1.8km at 6.6%, crested 7km from the finish. The road only really flattens out for the final 3km.

This stage could go any number of ways. It’s possible the break takes it, in case the sprinters’ teams aren’t all that interested in keeping the escapees under control with a testy finish on offer. It’s possible the bunch gets to the finish together, though slightly reduced from the late climb. It’s possible someone attacks out of the peloton on the climb. And it’s possible that the stage ends in a sprint. That’s a lot of options.

I like Peter Sagan to win the stage because he could triumph in any one of those four scenarios. He’s looked great even in the pure bunch sprints so far in the race, not to mention his skills as a solo artist and puncheur. He can be in the mix no matter what happens in Stage 10.

I think there’s a decent probability of a bunch sprint, too, so Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, and André Greipel could all be in play. Alexander Kristoff, Michael Matthews, and in particular, Bryan Coquard are especially dangerous given the profile.

I see Tony Gallopin as a nice option to attack for the win. He’ll love the finale. Greg Van Avermaet, Julian Alaphilippe, Edvald Boasson Hagen, Fabian Cancellara, and Steve Cummings could get involved with a long-range strike as well.

VeloHuman Stage 10 Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Bryan Coquard | 3. Tony Gallopin

July 12, 2016
The Recon Ride Podcast: Tour de France 2016, Part II

Episode 48: Tour de France 2016 Show, Part II

The Recon Ride reviews the Tour’s first nine stages and looks ahead at what’s to come over the next week.

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The Tour de France is in full swing. Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano discuss the state of affairs in the Tour so far and dig into the next few days of racing, which include some big mountains and a crucial time trial.

Photo by Chaumurky (CC).

July 11, 2016