Tag: 2016

Stage 8: Pau › Bagnères-de-Luchon – 184km

With four serious climbs on the menu, Stage 8 has the potential to really shake up the General Classification. Though the day won’t finish on an ascent, the challenging climbs could split up the even the big overall favorites. I expect some action from the yellow jersey hopefuls on the Col de Peyresourde (7.1km at 7.8%), though maybe not before.

If Chris Froome follows the formula that has already won him two Tours de France, he’ll play this stage aggressively. And if Chris Froome is in form, I expect him to be the strongest climber in the race, as he has so often proven to be early on in past Tours. The question is whether he’ll repeat the strategy. It’s likely enough that I see him as the favorite here.

Nairo Quintana is of course another top favorite for any crucial mountain stage. He should be in shape here. I do wonder, however, whether Alejandro Valverde might get the green light to go for the stage win if the opportunity is there. The finish suits him quite well.

Fringe contenders like Rui Costa, Romain Bardet, Rafal Majka, Pierre Rolland, Dan Martin, and Joaquím Rodríguez are good candidates here, as the GC men might allow them to ride off the front. The Astana duo of Fabio Aru and Vincenzo Nibali could also make something happen, as could the BMC duo of Tejay van Garderen and Richie Porte—but it’ll take a lot of effort for them to escape the pack.

And should a break take the stage, watch out for the likes of Rubén Plaza, Ilnur Zakarin, and Thomas De Gendt. I like the chances of the GC types on Stage 8, but the escapees will have a very real shot as well.

VeloHuman Stage 8 Favorites

1. Chris Froome | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Nairo Quintana

Stage 7: L’Isle-Jourdain › Lac de Payolle – 162.5km

The first real climber’s stage of the Tour is here! Stage 7 is pretty straightforward: it’s all about the Cat. 1 Col d’Aspin (12km at 6.5%) and the ensuing descent to a slightly uphill finish.

The stage will certainly bring the climbers to the fore, but since the climb isn’t that challenging, I see the strong descenders and punchy finishers as having the best shot at winning the day.

Dan Martin certainly fits the bill. He’s looked good so far in the race and with his fast finish I think he can be a real threat here. His teammate Julian Alaphilippe is a danger man as well.

And while we’re on the subject of Ardennes-type riders, it’s certainly worth naming Alejandro Valverde, who would be my favorite here if he weren’t playing second fiddle to Nairo Quintana on GC. As it is, I still see Valverde with a good chance.

The same is true for Joaquím Rodríguez. This is a nice finish for him, and the stage in general could present a nice opportunity to try for a long-range attack.

The same goes for Vincenzo Nibali. I initially had him pegged as a top favorite for the stage before his first few days on Tour. He hasn’t been particularly impressive so far but this is still a profile that suits him.

Romain Bardet, Steve Cummings, Rui Costa, Rafal Majka, Tony Gallopin, Ilnur Zakarin, and, of course, any one of Quintana, Chris Froome, or Fabio Aru could deliver here as well.

VeloHuman Stage 7 Favorites

1. Dan Martin | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Joaquím Rodríguez

Stage 6: Arpajon-sur-Cère › Montauban – 190.5km

One last flat-ish day before the climber’s get their chance to shine, stage 6 is almost certainly one for the sprinters, who won’t want to miss this opportunity before the mountains.

The three categorized climbs all come relatively early and the stage is neither short nor overly long. In other words, it’s hard to find too much to say about this profile that will keep the sprinters from contesting the finish.

Three sprint stages into the Tour, I can’t really say with much confidence that any one sprinter is head and shoulders above the rest. I still see Mark Cavendish, Marcel Kittel, and André Greipel as being pretty closely matched. I’ll go with Kittel as a slight favorite here. With a good leadout I still think he’s the fastest guy in the race, though Cav looks like a close second and Greipel a close third.

In Peter Sagan, Bryan Coquard, Dylan Groenewegen, Alexander Kristoff, and Sam Bennett, the Tour peloton has plenty of potential spoilers as well. Also keep an eye on young Edward Theuns, who has looked really good so far in this race.

VeloHuman Stage 6 Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. André Greipel

Stage 2: Saint-Lô › Cherbourg-en-Cotentin – 183km

The Tour’s second stage will be another day for the stagehunters, but it should be the punchy types contesting the win in the finale instead of the sprinters. The parcours is not particularly challenging, but the placement of two uphill stretches late in the stage will thin the pack and potentially spring attacks.

Just over a kilometer from the finish, the bunch will crest a 1.9km, 6.5% Cat. 3 climb. Then, after a short flat stretch, the riders will take on a 700m section of 5.7% running in to the line. Again, nothing all that challenging, but steep enough to bring the lighter speedsters to the fore ahead of the pure sprinters.

Peter Sagan should enjoy the profile. He looked very strong in a finish made more for the likes of Mark Cavendish Saturday, and he’ll be the rider to beat on these gradients.

Michael Matthews is probably his top challenger. We haven’t seen much from the Australian this season, but there’s not really any reason to believe he won’t be up for this stage, which should suit him well. Simon Gerrans and Michael Albasini are both fine alternatives for Orica-BikeExchange.

Greg Van Avermaet bested Sagan in an uphill Tour stage finish last year and I like his chances here. Edvald Boasson Hagen crashed in Stage 1 but if he’s feeling okay he’s another potential contender.

Dan Martin and Julian Alaphilippe could get involved as well—it’s hard to say whether the finish is steep enough, but the pairing of climbs could help whittle things down enough to bring either one of them into the equation.

Tony Gallopin, Alejandro Valverde, Alexis Vuillermoz, and Joaquím Rodríguez are other riders who could be in the mix.

VeloHuman Stage 2 Favorites

1. Peter Sagan | 2. Michael Matthews | 3. Greg Van Avermaet

Stage 1: Mont-Saint-Michel › Utah Beach Sainte-Marie-du-Mont – 188km

The Tour’s opening stage should be one for the sprinter’s, with coastal crosswinds looking like the only potential obstacle standing in the way of the speedsters. The profile itself is quite flat, tailormade for a bunch kick, but windy conditions could force splits in the pack. Even if that does happen, however, I still expect a sprint to close out this stage, with the wind mostly serving to thin the list of contenders.

Marcel Kittel stands atop that list. He may have had a rough 2015 Tour, but he’s been terrific this season, leading me to believe he’s back to the level that saw him dominate the sprints the two years prior. He also rides for Etixx now, and if there’s one team likely to make something happen in the wind, it’s the Belgian super-squad.

Kittel’s top challengers should be, of course, André Greipel and Mark Cavendish. I’d probably rank Cavendish slightly ahead of Greipel because I see the Manxman as having better pure speed in peak form—but he hasn’t shown it off in high-level races yet this season. As such, it wouldn’t be all that surprising to me if he were a bit off the mark.

Behind those big three, expect Peter Sagan, Alexander Kristoff, Michael Matthews, John Degenkolb, and Bryan Coquard to be fighting for the surprise win. But unless there a big split in the crosswinds, I have a hard time seeing any of them taking the day.

VeloHuman Stage 1 Favorites

1. Marcel Kittel | 2. Mark Cavendish | 3. André Greipel