Episode 35: Volta a Catalunya 2016 Pre-race Show
The podcast previews the 2016 Volta a Catalunya, which boasts one of the strongest startlists in recent memory.
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The Classics may be in full swing now that Milano-Sanremo is in the bag, but some of cycling’s biggest GC stars will be busy doing what they do best this week in eastern Spain. Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano discuss the Volta a Catalunya, among the oldest stage races in the sport.
Photo by Dane Cash.
The 74th edition of Paris-Nice gets underway Saturday, which means that WorldTour racing has arrived in Europe. The startlist may have taken a slight hit in the last few years, but the race still draws plenty of talent—the sprinting field is particularly strong this year, and several top GC names are also in attendance to battle for the overall title in the “Race to the Sun.”
Paris-Nice runs for eight days, starting with a short, flat prologue in the Paris suburbs. The organizers have mixed things up with the inclusion of a few dirt road sections in the ensuing Stage 1. That could make for an interesting day of racing.
Stage 2 looks to be one for the sprinters, with Stage 3 injecting the first serious climbs into the race. A Cat. 2 finale is likely to break things up a bit on the overall leaderboard.
The sprinters will have another chance on Stage 4 before an intriguing Stage 5 that includes a partial trip up Mont Ventoux—though the visit to the iconic climb comes earlier on in the stage. The three Cat. 2 climbs that follow Ventoux could break things up further, but a flat run-in to the finish will likely keep the stage from being too decisive.
The GC is likely to be decided on Stage 6, which includes seven categorized climbs, all of them Cat. 2s or harder, with a Cat. 1 climb to the finish line.
If that hasn’t settled things, the race concludes with a lumpy stage 7, whose up-and-down profile involves six more categorized climbs, the last of which is Paris-Nice favorite Col d’Éze.
In general, it’s a route with plenty of challenges, but one that lacks either a long time trial or any particularly massive or viciously steep finishing climbs. Bonus seconds could play an important role in deciding the overall winner.
Richie Porte won the race last year (and in 2013) and he will look defend the title this year, riding for new team BMC. The route, however, is less Porte’s style, without a tough time trial to give him the advantage over his rivals. Furthermore, Porte might not be terribly focused on defending his Paris-Nice crown with later-season objectives on his mind—Porte was incredible in the one-week races last year, and yet all the buzz around his season focused on his inability to pull of a Grand Tour win. The Tour is likely occupying all of his focus right now.
Alberto Contador is another two-time winner of the race in attendance. He too might have preferred some changes to the route, but he’s dangerous on practically any terrain and will have plenty of opportunities to put in a characteristic Contador attack if he’s feeling up for it in March.
Romain Bardet looked strong last month in Oman, and should be on-point in Paris-Nice. He has a nice uphill kick, which should help him in the bonus seconds game, and riding on French rides his motivation should be high.
Sky’s Geraint Thomas will hope to follow up a strong 2015 performance wither another this year, and the profile should favor his riding style. Teammate Sergio Henao is another strong bet.
Rui Costa has come close here in the past and should love this year’s route. He thrives on profiles that present opportunities for escape attempts, and Paris-Nice 2016 has plenty of those. He also looks to be in good shape right about now. Louis Meintjes gives Lampre-Merida another good option.
Underrated on the short, steep stuff, Tom Dumoulin should do well on this parcours if he is motivated to fight for a result.
The same goes for Wilco Kelderman and Luis León Sánchez.
Lotto-Soudal’s Tony Gallopin and Tim Wellens, Simon Yates, Rafal Majka, Ion Izagirre, Alexis Vuilermoz, Cannondale’s duo of Andrew Talansky and Pierre Rolland, and the Katusha trio of Ilnur Zakarin, Rein Taaramäe, and Simon Spilak are others who could get involved in the GC battle.
A bevy of strong sprinters should provide action on the flatter early stages. Marcel Kittel, off to a strong start this season, will be hard to beat now that he appears to be back up to speed after a down year in 2015. Alexander Kristoff, also very strong right now, will hope to best Kittel in the bunch kicks, as will André Greipel, 33 but still showing plenty of ability in the sprints.
Michael Matthews, Wouter Wippert, Arnaud Démare, Nacer Bouhanni, Juan José Lobato, and Ben Swift are others to watch in the sprint finishes.
GC Winner: Romain Bardet
Podium: Alberto Contador, Rui Costa
Other Top Contenders: Richie Porte, Geraint Thomas, Tony Gallopin, Simon Yates, Tom Dumoulin, Pierre Rolland
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis and commentary during the race!
-Dane Cash
Photo by Kat Rietberg (CC).
Episode 32: Paris-Nice 2016 Pre-race Show
The 2016 WorldTour has arrived in Europe—Paris-Nice is upon us! The podcast previews the eight-day “Race to the Sun.”
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Road racing is getting back into full swing, and so is the Recon Ride. Dane Cash and Cosmo Catalano take a closer look at Paris-Nice.
Photo by Conseil départemental des Yvelines (CC).
Stage 20 is the Tour’s final mountain stage, and the only stage in the race to feature two HC-rated climbs. Those two uphill tests are the only categorized climbs on the day, but they’re plenty challenging by themselves.
It’s a very short stage at just 110.5 kilometers, so expect a high pace all day. After a downhill run of 25km from the start the road angles upward in the form of the now-familiar Col de la Croix de Fer, though this time they approach the summit a different way.
The trip upward will span 29km at 5.2%, with a few steeper sections early on and then near the top.
After the riders crest the climb, they’ll head downhill for about 30 kilometers into a short stretch of flat road, which leads into the foot of the final mountain climb of the 2015 Tour de France: Alpe d’Huez.
The legendary Alpine test is 13.8km in length with an 8.1% average gradient. It is at its steepest at the beginning of the climb and then with around 3 kilometers to go. Things even out a bit near the top for a final kilometer at just over 5%.
The profile isn’t a terrible one for the early breakaway, and if a strong group gets up the road they will have a chance, but most of the big favorites from afar have spent a lot of time in the breakaways in the past two stages, and that could leave them low on fuel. The GC men, especially if they wind it up early to put pressure on each other, have a good chance of fighting it out for the final mountain stage in the Tour.
Nairo Quintana put some time into Chris Froome on Stage 19 and will look to do so again on Stage 20. For Froome, the goal is simply to not lose 2 and a half minutes on the stage. Froome didn’t look totally cooked on Stage 19 and was probably playing things conservatively, limiting the damage reasonably well—but the young Colombian is nevertheless closer to yellow than he was before. That could have Froome planning to take Stage 20 as safely as possible.
If he decides to attack Quintana, Froome’s an obvious danger for stage win, but with the Tour de France on the line, that seems like a risky proposition. What’s more, Quintana, benefiting a great deal from having Alejandro Valverde as a foil, might just be stronger now anyway. If this does come down to the GC favorites, it’s hard to see anyone challenging Quintana for Stage 20.
Alberto Contador will likely give it a shot. He’s way too far down on Froome to be a threat, but the podium is not completely out of reach, and a stage win would be something of a consolation prize for Contador, whose Tour has fallen very short of his expectations. He’s not strong enough to beat Froome and Quintana head-to-head but there’s a chance he’s given enough of space that that won’t matter too much.
Stage 19 winner Vincenzo Nibali could obviously have aspirations of breaking clear of the GC group once again, and he’s certainly looked stronger in the past few days than he did at the start of the race. But he’s not likely to get nearly as much breathing room as before now that he’s in contention for the podium, and he’s bound to pay somewhat for his efforts on Stage 19.
Robert Gesink sits nearly 9 minutes behind Froome on GC, and he has nearly 4 minutes of cushion to the next rider on the leaderboard. If he feels strong on the final climb, don’t be surprised if he tries to leave the GC men behind to go in pursuit of a stage win. Even if his bid fails spectacularly, he’s got plenty of time to lose to drop even one spot inside the Top 10.
Romain Bardet has enjoyed two great stages in a row, with a win on Stage 18 and a top 5 placing (and plenty of KOM points racked up) on Stage 19. He’s certainly strong right now, and he’s far enough behind on GC that he’ll be given some space if he wants to go for a long one. It’s hard to predict how he’ll play the stage—in his quest for the KOM title, the points on the Croix de Fer won’t actually be all that important if Froome ends up placing highly on the final climb. Bardet can’t afford to wear himself down too much and not be in contention for a decent placing at the finish. As such, his strategic decisions should be more focused simply on whether he thinks he has a better chance at a high stage placing (and the accompanying KOM points) from the pack, or in the break. Sticking with the peloton until the final ascent and then launching a move could be the best tactic. In any case, after two days of exhausting himself, Bardet is likely to be bringing a bit of fatigue into Stage 20, so it will be a big challenge for him to take a victory, especially with stronger GC favorites and fresher potential breakaway candidates having their eyes on the same prize.
Joaquim Rodríguez is in a similar boat, but he has not looked the best in the past two stages. The veteran racer could still recover, however, and unlike Bardet he conserved energy after the breakaway was reeled in on Stage 19, so don’t be surprised if he gives a long-range attack another go on Stage 20.
Pierre Rolland has plenty of form in this Tour de France but two days in a row of exhausting solo efforts won’t have left him with much energy to try for another on Stage 20. Then again, everyone will likely be tired and Rolland isn’t a threat to the overall, so he may find success if he saves energy by riding in the pack until the final climb, and then goes for a long one on the early slopes.
Thibaut Pinot stayed with the GC men for the entirety of Stage 20, which, first, suggests that he is feeling strong right now, and second, will likely leave him a bit fresher than Bardet, Rodríguez, and a number of other likely breakaway contenders. That could serve him well for a long-range move, though he hasn’t quite had the strength to turn in a victory so far.
Jakob Fuglsang was one of the few big-name potential breakaway favorites to completely save his energy on Stage 19, dropping out of the GC group early, and he’s looked strong enough in this Tour that he may have a chance with a long one on Stage 20. The question for Fuglsang will be whether he gives it a shot at all. Now that Nibali is fighting for the podium, Astana may call for all hands on deck in support of the Italian GC contender, which could leave Fuglsang playing domestique. If he goes on the attack, he’s a dangerous rider.
Rigoberto Urán, Rafal Majka, Ryder Hesjedal, Andrew Talansky, Cyril Gautier, Adam Yates, Serge Pauwels, Samuel Sánchez, Warren Barguil, Mathias Frank, and Rafael Valls are other names to watch for a long-range strike on Stage 20.
1. Nairo Quintana | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Alberto Contador
Don’t forget: you can find plenty more Tour de France analysis in the most recent Recon Ride podcast episode. Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more commentary during the race, and check back for the preview of the final stage of the 2015 Tour after the conclusion of Stage 20.
The 2015 Tour de France is about to get underway, with the peloton set for a Dutch Grand Départ in the Netherlands this weekend. A quick time trial and then a few days of Classics-style racing will give way to several days for the sprinters and more versatile stagehunters before a team time trial and then some very challenging mountain stages to really spark competition among the overall favorites. With a route built to encourage uphill battles and multiple riders looking to have legitimate chances of coming away with the overall win, this year’s edition of the sport’s biggest event is set to be an excellent showdown, and with all the action just around the corner, it’s time for VeloHuman’s overall Tour de France preview.
The Tour kicks off with a short, flat ITT in the Netherlands (in the university town of Utrecht, to be exact). Then comes another day on Dutch soil, a flat road stage, followed by a trip to Belgium’s challenging Mur de Huy on Stage 3. Stage 4 will stick with the Classics theme, challenging the peloton with several stretches of cobbles in between start and finish.
Things get a bit more traditional after that. Stages 5 through 8 look friendly for the fast finishers or those riders fortunate and skilled enough to stick long breakaways. Stage 9 is a medium-length team time trial that will open up a few time gaps on the General Classification, and it’s followed by three high mountain stages certain to see plenty more GC action.
The bumpy profiles of Stages 13 through 16 will keep the GC riders on their toes and, at least in terms of stage honors, will likely favor the more well-rounded fast finishers and aggressive types. Then come the serious mountain tests likely to decide the Tour de France: a very difficult Stage 17, a tough Stage 18, and an extremely challenging one-two punch of mountaintop finishes on Stages 19 and 20.
The Alpe d’Huez finale of Stage 20 will make for a great final GC battleground in the 2015 Tour de France, especially at the end of a day packed with climbing. The race will conclude in its usual style with a sprinter-friendly Stage 21 in Paris.
All told, it’s a climber-friendly route, with far fewer total kilometers of individual time trialing than recent years have seen. Versatility will still be important, however, as cobblestones, Low Country weather, plenty of short steep climbs, and technical descents will challenge the yellow jersey hopefuls to survive and thrive on more than just the long Alpine uphill slogs.
This year’s GC battle is all about cycling’s “Big Four” GC riders: Chris Froome, Alberto Contador, Vincenzo Nibali, and Nairo Quintana. Only Quintana is without at least one Tour de France victory on his record, but his runner-up performance in 2013 and his Giro win in 2014 shine brightly all the same. With all four seemingly on form and healthy, it should be quite a showdown. Each rider has factors weighing for and against favorite status.
At least in VeloHuman’s perspective, Chris Froome, recently victorious in the Critérium du Dauphiné, looks to be the slight favorite. The last time he stayed healthy throughout the Tour de France, he dominated the field. His 2015 campaign has not been as steady as that incredible 2013, but he looked very strong last month in the Dauphiné, and he has an unbelievable supporting cast with the likes of Richie Porte, Leopold König, Wout Poels, and Nicolas Roche, among others. Sky can put the pressure on early with so many weapons, and Froome’s machine-like endurance should keep his legs powering along late in the race. For Froome, a parcours light on time trials might seem like a less ideal scenario, but the 30-year-old stage racer has actually been underwhelming against the clock lately, meanwhile putting in some very strong climbing rides so far this year. To win, however, he’ll need to overcome the fierce competition of his rivals, whom he has not been able to put away as easily in recent months as he did back when he last won the Tour.
Alberto Contador certainly has the talent at peak ability to take on Froome in this race, as his terrific 2014 Vuelta victory suggested. But his Giro participation, excellent though his winning performance was, will almost certainly have taken something out of him. The Giro-Tour double is an extremely hard feat to accomplish. Contador may have a better chance of pulling it off than anyone in the sport, but that still might not be enough. A TT-light route won’t help him—he’s certainly better against the clock than Quintana and Nibali, but that won’t be of use here. Instead, he’ll need to rely on his ability to get up the vicious climbs in the final week to win this race, and that might be a lot to ask after a prior GT win already on the season. In any case, strong supporters like Rafal Majka and Roman Kreuziger will be valuable to Contador’s attempt to beat the odds and the other favorites.
Nairo Quintana should be coming in fresh, and this is the perfect route for him. He’s not a great time trialist, but that won’t hold him back with less than 15km against the clock solo—what’s more, Movistar typically fields a strong TTT squad, making the TTT a place where the young Colombian might actually be able to pick up time on his rivals. After that he’ll have plenty of opportunities to put his terrific climbing skills on display. The last time Quintana and Froome went up against each other in a full Grand Tour, Froome emerged victorious, but Quintana has gotten older and stronger since then, and should be a very strong contender for the overall. Alejandro Valverde offers Movistar a powerful card to play as well—and don’t be surprised if he has his own GC ambitions in this race too.
Despite winning last year’s Tour de France, Vincenzo Nibali will face an uphill battle for a repeat victory. His Tour win was impressive, for sure, but with neither Froome nor Contador surviving into the final week (and Quintana opting to race elsewhere that year), it’s hard to judge Nibali against the gold standard of his top rivals. He was far stronger than everyone else still in the race by the final mountain stages of the 2014 Tour, but that wasn’t really all that unexpected. Still, this is a good route for him, and he has a very complete team around him (which includes stalwart lieutenant Jakob Fuglsang) to help him pursue his second Tour win.
Outside of that quartet of top favorites, it’s hard to see anyone else really challenging for the overall win, but there are a few strong outsiders. Fresh off his Dauphiné win, Tejay van Garderen looks better than ever on the climbs, and he’ll have BMC’s worlds-winning TTT squad to put him into a good position early on in the race. Thibaut Pinot won high mountain stages in both the Tour de Romandie and the Tour de Suisse, and the lack of ITT mileage favors his skillset. Rui Costa has had a strong year, and has been an elite one-week racer for some time, despite never really putting it together across three weeks to land a big Grand Tour result—this could be his year to finally string together several good days. Joaquim Rodríguez has run a bit hot and cold in 2015, but he was untouchable in País Vasco; this parcours suits his abilities quite well and that could help him battle it out for a big result. Bauke Mollema should also like the overall route (and the Dutch start), and he has shown flashes of impressive form this year.
AG2R’s one-two punch of Jean-Christophe Peraud and Romain Bardet, and Cannondale-Garmin’s one-two-three punch of Andrew Talansky, Ryder Hesjedal, and Dan Martin could make things interesting. The EQS duo of Michal Kwiatkowski and Rigoberto Urán, IAM’s Mathias Frank, Europcar’s Pierre Rolland, LottoNL’s Wilco Kelderman, and Giant-Alpecin’s Warren Barguil are among those who will hope to battle for big results from the fringes of the GC conversation.
With Marcel Kittel out of the Tour de France this year, Mark Cavendish looks to be the class of the field in the pure speed department in this race, but there are plenty of strong riders behind him who will hope to nab stage wins as well, especially on some of the bumpier stages where Cav might struggle. André Greipel, at his best, should be able to mix it up with Cavendish on the pure flats. The likes of Alexander Kristoff, John Degenkolb, Nacer Bouhanni, Arnaud Demaré, Michael Matthews, and, of course, Peter Sagan, will also try to be in the conversation, with the tougher days potentially providing opportunities for some of them to battle it out without Cavendish in the conversation. John Degenkolb, in particular, could surprise—as versatile as he is, he’s also just plain fast in a sprint. With Giant-Alpecin’s full support thanks to the absence of Marcel Kittel, Degenkolb could rack up the results and maybe even a strong green jersey bid. Sam Bennett, Bryan Coquard, and MTN-Qhubeka’s speedy pair of Tyler Farrar and an in-form Edvald Boasson Hagen are others to watch in the sprints.
A generous helping of intermediate stages will likely see the peloton’s punchy climbers and long-range specialists hunting for multiple stage victories. Watch out for the likes of OGE’s Simon Gerrans and Michael Albasini, BMC’s Philippe Gilbert and Greg Van Avermaet, Trek’s Julian Arredondo, and Lotto-Soudal’s Tony Gallopin (among many others) to keep things interesting on the bumpier days. Lastly, a note about the very strong field of TT specialists in attendance: there may be only one (short) ITT in the Tour, but a chance to wear yellow is on the line and the impressive time trialing quartet of Tony Martin, Fabian Cancellara, Tom Dumoulin, and Adriano Malori should be in the mix with a few of the aforementioned GC contenders for the honor of a stint in the yellow jersey early on in the year.
GC Winner: Chris Froome
Podium: Nairo Quintana, Alberto Contador
Other Top Contenders: Vincenzo Nibali, Tejay van Garderen, Thibaut Pinot, Joaquim Rodríguez, Rui Costa, Romain Bardet, Alejandro Valverde
Be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for plenty more analysis, and check back soon for the preview of the first stage of the race—VeloHuman will be previewing every individual stage of the 2015 Tour. The preview of Stage 1 is already online! Also, don’t miss the Recon Ride’s three Tour de France podcasts. The first episode is available here!
-Dane Cash
Photo by Epping Forest District Council (CC).
Episode 17: Tour de France 2015 Show, Part I
Cycling’s main event is almost here. The Recon Ride takes a look at the route, the favorites, and the big storylines of the 2015 Tour de France.
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With the biggest race of the year around the corner, Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm and Dane Cash of VeloHuman join forces to present the first of three Recon Ride Tour de France episodes.
Photo by Greenwich Photography (CC).