The Volta saw it’s first serious climbing battle on Stage 3, with Domenico Pozzovivo taking the day after jumping from a small lead group that included Richie Porte and Alberto Contador, among others, with Alejandro Valverde (who had taken a small spill along the technical route) and Chris Froome a bit behind. Stage 4 will likely be even more decisive, opening with a pair of Cat. 1s and then finishing with the one-two punch of an extra-long Special-Category Alt de la Crueta (21 kilometers at a 4.5% average gradient) and then the Cat. 1 La Molina summit finish (5.6 kilometers with a 5.8% average gradient).
Such an up-and-down day is likely to see consistent attacks. It won’t be easy to control this stage, making a breakaway stage victor possible; at the same time, there are all-important bonus seconds at the line, and several powerful teams hoping to take the top step of the Volta a Catalunya podium, meaning that the peloton will likely work hard to reel in anyone up the road.
As tough as this day will be, the final few kilometers are not terribly steep. It’s feasible that a small group reaches the top of La Molina together, which would give the advantage to the climbers with strong finishing kicks. Alejandro Valverde again comes to mind, though after racing Milano-Sanremo and heading straight to Spain to start in this race, it seems likely that at some point, Valverde might start to feel a bit of fatigue. He’s still a top favorite, but there is that question of whether or not he can keep chugging along at such a high level.
The Chris Froome vs. Alberto Contador battle may have given way to a Richie Porte vs. Alberto Contador battle, and Stage 4 will certain offer another battleground for the confrtontation. Porte has the stronger team, with almost all of Sky’s top climbers. With the number of options Sky has brought to this race, their odds of coming away with a result are pretty good. Then again, Alberto Contador at his best would be the best climber here (with the only rider who might rival him, Froome, still lacking just a bit of form after his illness at the beginning of the month). Contador is a shrewd tactician. The question is whether he can come up with the right strategy to beat this juggernaut Sky team.
Rigoberto Urán and Dan Martin may get another opportunity after they lost out to Domenico Pozzovivo on Stage 3. If they can stick with the lead group at the end of the day, they both have great finishing kicks to go for the victory at the line. The same is true for Wilco Kelderman, though it seems a bit less likely that Kelderman will survive this tough stage with the top favorites.
Pozzovivo will be another contender here, given the form he showed on Stage 3. He lacks the top speed to win a potential reduced sprint, meaning that he’ll need to jump from whatever group he is in to do win this stage, but he’s had a lot of success in doing just that. Fabio Aru, Andrew Talansky, and Esteban Chaves are other strong climbers who could be looking to go on the offensive.
VeloHuman Stage Favorites
1. Riche Porte | 2. Alejandro Valverde | 3. Alberto Contador
While the Classics specialists are recovering from Milano-Sanremo and then heading to Belgium for E3 and Gent-Wevelgem, plenty of other big names, including several of the top stage racers in the sport, will make the journey to Spain to take on the Volta a Catalunya. With no time trials and tough climbs throughout the race, it’s a great event for those who enjoy riding uphill. This year’s edition boasts a startlist filled with stars certain to make things interesting. VH is on-site and will provide plenty of race coverage, including individual stage previews.
The Route
The Volta a Catalunya is a seven-day race that travels through Spain’s Catalonia region, starting in the beach town of Calella and then traveling along the coast and through the Pyrenees before finally coming to a conclusion in Barcelona, the capital of the autonomous community. There are climbs on every stage of the race, and they are categorized 3-2-1-Esp., though the climbs classified as “Cat. 1” here might be classified differently in other stage races. For example, the first Cat. 1 of the race is the Alt del Coll Formic, 7.8 kilometers at a 5.2% average gradient, which is probably not difficult enough for it to be classified as a Category 1 climb in, for instance, the Tour de France.
The first stage does have some tough climbs in the middle of the day and a small bump near the finish, but last year’s Calella stage ended in a bunch sprint and it seems likely that that scenario will repeat itself this year. Stage 2 is one that could go to the more versatile quick men who can stay at the head of the race on a late Cat. 3 climb.
The GC battle will heat up on Stage 3, which starts and finishes in Girona, with two Cat. 3s, a Cat. 2, and two visits to the same Cat. 1 climb along the way. After the peloton makes its second visit to said climb, the Alt dels Ángels (6 km at a 5.5% average grade), there will only be 13 kilometers remaining in the stage; in other words, attacks made on the climb may survive to the line.
Stage 4: Tona › La Molina (188 km) – There won’t be many opportunities for tired legs to rest on the climb-filled fourth stage of the Volta a Catalunya.
Stage 4 will certainly see GC action. The riders will take on a series of climbs on the way to a summit finish at La Molina ski resort, with the seemingly interminable special-category Alt de Creueta (21 km at 4.5%) along the way.
None of the climbs on the stage are individually all that imposing compared to some of the mountains these riders will face in the Giro or the Tour, but taking on so many uphill challenges in rapid succession will certainly wear on the peloton.
Stage 5 will throw a late climb at the riders but the 2014 edition saw a sprit in the same location. Stage 6 is almost certainly for the sprinters. Stage 7, with its eight climbs of Barcelona’s Montjuïc, will almost inevitably see attacks, but whether they will have a GC impact is not so certain.
Several of these stages could end in bunch sprints, despite the climbs and their categorizations in the roadbook. Still, the multitude of vertical challenges guarantees plenty of attacks by the climbers, and the opportunity to put in those uphill digs has drawn a terrific startlist to this year’s race.
The General Classification Contenders
Last year’s winner Joaquim Rodríguez was a late scratch after coming down with an illness, but Tour de France winners Chris Froome and Alberto Contador are among the many elite GC names who will set out from Calella. Froome missed Tirreno-Adriatico with a chest infection, but he was not off the bike for long. Assuming he has maintained the strong form he showed in the Ruta del Sol, Froome will be hard to beat in this race, especially given the incredible team support Sky is bringing. Richie Porte will be another of the top favorites, with Leopold König, Nicolas Roche, and Wout Poels all enjoying contender status as well. Some may point to the lack of time trials in this race as a reason to doubt the chances of Froome (and Sky alternative Porte, for that matter), but at his best, Froome can match the world’s top climbers on the slopes. The overlong climbs on Stage 4 suit Froome and his team perfectly.
Alberto Contador is certainly among those top climbers. His 5th in Tirreno was a bit underwhelming given his status entering the race as the top favorite, but he has another opportunity here in a race in which he has shined in the past. He was 2nd last year behind Purito. Contador is a fiery competitor and he won’t back down from this chance to take on Froome. It won’t be easy against such opposition, but expect a powerful counterpunch from a rider who knows how to race here after Froome defeated him in their first meeting of the year at the Ruta del Sol. Though Contador’s team doesn’t have quite the firepower of Sky, Rafal Majka, Michael Rogers, and Robert Kiserlovksi should be a strong supporting cast as well, especially if Majka can get back to the Top 5-level form he showed in the Tour of Oman after a lackluster Tirreno.
2013 winner Daniel Martin typically performs very well in this race; in addition to his one victory he has also been runner-up twice. For the most part, these climbs suit him very well, and the Irish uphill specialist now lives in the area, meaning that he’ll get a chance to ride on home roads this week. Though he did not have a great Tirreno-Adriatico, Martin has tended to develop his form gradually at the start of the season. He should be among the top contenders here, with a nice finishing kick to help him nab bonus seconds. Andrew Talansky and Ryder Hesjedal make for excellent support riders or potential alternatives for Cannondale-Garmin.
Alejandro Valverde won the Volta back in 2009. He has looked good in almost every race he’s taken on so far this year, and just as it suits fellow hilly classics star Dan Martin, the parcours in this race suits Valverde too. His Spanish squad will look for a top result here, and with the Ardennes rapidly approaching, Valverde will probably be in top shape. His sprinting ability makes him a strong player in the bonus seconds game. He should contend for the podium, though he’ll need to be more aggressive than has been his style lately if he wants to fight for the win. Rubén Fernández is a strong ally.
Rigoberto Urán is in great shape right now and should be capable of fighting for the win. BMC’s Tejay van Garderen took his first WorldTour victory here in a mountaintop stage last year and finished 3rd overall. If he can bounce back from a less-than-successful Paris-Nice, he could notch more success this year. Spain’s Samu Sánchez makes for a nice alternative for BMC. Romain Bardet was just behind van Garderen in the aforementioned mountain stage in last year’s edition. He too struggled in Paris-Nice, but this ITT-less race suits his pure climber’s skillset. Domenico Pozzovivo and Carlos Betancur are other options for AG2R. Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman was another who underwhelmed in Paris-Nice, but he can find his form he should do well here. With practically every team in the race bringing a GC name to Catalonia, the list of outside contenders beyond the many GC riders already mentioned is very long. Some of those that have to be in the conversation are: Astana’s Fabio Aru (whose climbing legs were decent in Paris-Nice despite his poor overall result), Katusha’s Giampaolo Caruso, Lampre-Merida’s Rafal Valls, Giant-Alpecin’s Warren Barguil, Colombia’s Rodolfo Torres, IAM Cycling’s Jarlinson Pantano, Lotto Soudal’s Jurgen Van Den Broeck, Europcar’s Pierre Rolland, Cofidis’s Daniel Navarro, and OGE’s Esteban Chaves.
The Stagehunters
Despite the many hills along the road to Barcelona, the Volta does often involve several sprint stages. This year’s route should see a few. Giant-Alpecin’s Luka Mezgec won thrice here in 2014 and is again among the fastest names on the startlist. Bryan Coquard has had trouble turning Top 10s into results at the WorldTour level but he’ll have opportunities here. IAM Cycling’s Matteo Pelucchi started the year in fine form and should be able to contend for more results in this race. OGE’s Caleb Ewan, EQS’s Julian Alaphilippe, Trek’s Jasper Stuyven, Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari, and Movistar’s JJ Rojas are on the list of other quick men in Catalunya.
Meanwhile watch out for the likes of Amets Txurruka (Caja Rural), Cyril Gautier (Europcar), and Thomas De Gendt (Lotto Soudal) to try to find breakaway success among the many rollings hills in the race.
VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites
Winner: Chris Froome Podium: Alberto Contador, Alejandro Valverde Other Top Contenders: Dan Martin, Romain Bardet, Rigoberto Urán, Richie Porte, Tejay van Garderen, Samuel Sánchez, Fabio Aru
VeloHuman is on-site at the race and will have plenty more insight from Catalunya (keep an eye out for daily stage previews), so stay tuned here and on Twitter @VeloHuman! Also be sure to check out the Recon Ride for more pre-race commentary.
Episode 5: Volta a Catalunya 2015 Pre-race Show The Volta a Catalunya kicks off right after Milano-Sanremo, which means the Recon Ride is back with another pre-race show.
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VeloHuman and Cyclocosm have teamed up again to present another episode of the Recon Ride, covering the Volta a Catalunya. With big GC names on almost every team making the trek to Spain, and climbs throughout the seven-day journey through Catalonia, the race should provide a healthy dose of uphill action. The Recon Ride takes a closer look.
The 50th running of Tirreno-Adriatico offers the cycling world a double dose of WorldTour racing for a few days in March as it overlaps with Paris-Nice in France. The Italian stage race boasts a startlist that includes three of the top four Tour de France favorites (Chris Froome was on the startlist but has withdrawn with a chest infection), elite sprinters, and a bevy of Classics stars tuning up for the one-day races around the corner. Recent history would suggest that this race is an important test for those stars hoping to stand at cycling’s center stage. After winning here last season, Alberto Contador went on to nab quite a collection of results over the course of the rest of his year. In fact, the last six editions in a row have been won by riders who either already had or would go on to add Grand Tour victories to their palmares. No other one-week stage race can boast such a consistent correlation between its winners and the winners of the sport’s biggest events.
The Route
With chrono mileage, sprint stages, bumpier days, and a brutal summit finish all along the route, Tirreno-Adriatico has all the makings of a mini-Grand Tour. Stage 1 is a flat, 5.7-kilometer individual time trial that replaced a TTT at the last moment. Something this short isn’t likely to shake up the GC all that much but it can’t be overlooked either. Meanwhile, some of the more powerful sprinters on the startlist will appreciate the chance to get a rare chrono victory. They will have another chance to shine on the short and flat Stage 2, which will almost certainly end in a bunch gallop.
Things get a bit more interesting on Stage 3, where the peloton will overcome cobbles and some short climbs in the second half of the day likely to favor the punchier riders. Stage 4 poses several challenges, with climbs of the Poggio San Romualdo and Monte San Vicino followed by back-back ascents of the short but steep Crispiero climb, almost certain to launch late attacks.
Stage 5 of Tirreno-Adriatico will put the peloton to the test with a summit finish on the Terminillo climb. 16.1 kilometers at 7.3%, it’s a long slog to the top that will put serious pain into the legs of anyone coming into this race out of shape.
Stage 5: Esanatoglia › Terminillo (197 km) – The long Terminillo climb on the fifth stage of Tirreno Adriatico will be a difficult test of uphill power.
Bauke Mollema told the Recon Ride that this was going to be a climb for the “strong guys” where long-term wattage would be key, and it’s easy to see why.
Stage 6 brings the riders back down towards sea level and should end in a bunch sprint. The seventh and final stage is a flat, 10 kilometer ITT, one final chance for GC action on the last day of the race. From start to finish, it is a balanced route that will require a complete skillset to win. Bonus seconds of 10-6-4 at finishes (and 3-2-1 at intermediate sprints) will benefit those with some punch.
General Classification Contenders
For weeks this was set up to be a clash of cycling’s “Big Four,” the four top favorites for the Tour de France, but Chris Froome withdrew from the startlist with a chest infection, leaving only three of those Grand Tour stars to battle it out with the rest of the contenders. It should still be quite a show.
Defending champion Alberto Contador will enter the race as the top favorite, with his combination of strong time trialing and elite climbing legs, and having shown great form in the Ruta del Sol, where only Froome could beat him. He dominated this race last year and it given his abilities it’s easy to see him head and shoulders above the competition again. Roman Kreuziger, who seems to be in excellent shape right now, will make for a strong support rider or a deadly alternative.
The alteration of Stage 1 from a TTT to an ITT helps Contador even more: his biggest rival looks to be last year’s runner-up Nairo Quintana, who rides for a Movistar team that would have likely put in an excellent performance in the group chrono; now, Quintana must go against the clock by himself, twice. That said, Quintana will have his opportunities to strike for glory on the challenging slopes that await in Tirreno-Adriatico, and he did show some form in January at the Tour de San Luis, where he was 3rd and even put in a decent ride in a mostly flat ITT. Quintana gets better every year (he just turned 25 in February), and he will relish the opportunity to climb one step higher on the podium than he did in the 2014 edition of the race.
Vincenzo Nibali has won here twice, and in top shape he would merit more consideration as the top overall favorite, but has not shown a great deal of form so far this season. He may be following a pattern similar to the one he followed last year, slowly building to his Tour de France peak; it certainly worked out for him in 2014. Furthermore, the route isn’t ideal for him, with its double helping of ITT days. Still, Nibali has gone from showing little form to riding at an elite level very quickly in the past. If that is what he has in mind for Tirreno-Adriatico, watch for him to try to take an early advantage on Stage 3, where short steep climbs will provide launching pads and late descents could help Nibali, a brilliant descender, escape from the peloton if he makes the attempt. A powerful team that includes Dario Cataldo, Michele Scarponi, and Lieuwe Westra will give Astana options.
The form of Joaquim Rodríguez, who typically merits inclusion among the top favorites in a stage race, is a major unknown after quiet starts in Dubai and Oman. The course doesn’t suit him particularly well either, though Purito can never be counted out. Daniel Moreno is here for Katusha as well. Unlike Rodríguez, Moreno has put in decent rides in San Luis and Oman already this season.
New Colombian ITT champ Rigoberto Urán flashed some form in Strade Bianche, where he was 7th, and this is an excellent parcours for him. Tirreno-Adriatico has difficult climbs, but nothing of the incredibly steep variety that might put him into difficulty against the likes of Contador. For Urán, the time trials and potential for bonus seconds (his finishing kick is impressive) on a few stages will be a golden opportunity to challenge the defending champion, as well as the only two riders who have finished the Giro ahead of him the past two season, Nibali and Quintana.
Bauke Mollema will lead the charge for Trek Factory Racing, and he says that he’s feeling good after an offseason with his new team, which a string of good results in early season races seems to confirm. Julián Arredondo gives Trek another dangerous option on the climbs.
Despite the absence of Chris Froome, Sky will still have a strong presence in Tirreno-Adriatico. Leopold König sports a strong time trial and can climb with the best on a good day and Mikel Nieve was 4th in the Ruta del Sol in February. Both riders should be motivated to take advantage of the opportunity to ride for their own results.
AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo would probably prefer more mountains, but he can’t be ignored here. He was 6th last year, and is coming off a nice ride in the Tour Down Under. Teammate Carlos Betancur is a bit of a wildcard, brilliant at his best but not having shown any form since this time last year. Cannondale-Garmin will have the weapons to make for an interesting race with Ryder Hesjedal, Davide Formolo, and Daniel Martin. FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot would prefer less chrono mileage but he has improved in that discipline over the past few seasons and will hope to make up any time he loses in the ITTs on the climbs in the middle of the race. New teammate Steve Morabito is VeloHuman’s Under-the-radar rider for Tirreno-Adriatico. After several years at BMC working as a reliable support rider, Morabito joined FDJ over the offseason. He’s a great climber and decent in the time trials, but he did not get many opportunities to ride for himself at BMC. It should be clear pretty early on in this race whether he is being given a chance to get his own results; if he is, he should surprise some people. Jurgen Van Den Broeck, Pierre Rolland, and Louis Meintjes are other outsiders with a shot.
Stagehunters
Much like Froome among the GC contenders, a sick Marcel Kittel withdrew from the race and the sprinters conversation, leaving Mark Cavendish looking like the top rider for the sprints. He will still have competition, however, especially as he and leadout man Mark Renshaw are both overcoming illness. Sky’s new acquisition Elia Viviani has beaten Cavendish more than once in the past and will hope to do so here. IAM’s Matteo Pelucchi is in great shape right now and should be in the mix. Bora-Argon 18’s Sam Bennett won a hotly contested sprint stage in Qatar and will be dangerous in the fast finishes. Peter Sagan will likely be involved in the bunch sprints as well, and will be especially dangerous on Stage 3, which finishes in Arezzo, where he won last year. Lampre’s Sacha Modolo, Giant’s Luka Mezgec, and Tyler Farrar and Matt Goss of MTN-Qhubeka are other fast men to watch out for.
With two chrono stages, the time trial talents merit a mention as well: Adriano Malori, Fabian Cancellara, Ian Stannard, and Niki Terpstra should all appreciate the pair of opportunities to pick up WorldTour stage wins against the clock at the open and close of the race.
VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites
Winner: Alberto Contador Podium: Nairo Quintana, Rigoberto Urán Other Top Contenders: Vincenzo Nibali, Bauke Mollema, Domenico Pozzovivo, Roman Kreuziger, Thibaut Pinot, Joaquim Rodríguez, Leopold König
For daily stage predictions and more Tirreno-Adriatico commentary, be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter. And of course, don’t miss the Recon Ride for Tirreno-Adriatico 2015, which covers all the big storylines of the race and even includes a bit of insider insight from GC contender Bauke Mollema.
Episode 3: Tirreno-Adriatico 2015 Pre-race Show The Recon Ride talks route, favorites, and more for the Race of the Two Seas, with a guest appearance by Trek’s Bauke Mollema.
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While some of the peloton’s big names are in France for Paris-Nice, Grand Tour favorites and top sprinters and classics riders alike will take on Tirreno-Adriatico this week. VeloHuman and Cosmo Catalano of Cyclocosm.com delve into the roadbook, discuss the riders to watch, and even talk to GC contender Bauke Mollema of Trek Factory Racing about what to expect in Italy.
Update: this show was recorded and published before a flurry of late changes to the race narrative, among them the withdrawals of Chris Froome and Marcel Kittel, and the modification of Stage 1 from a team time trial into an individual time trial. However, the Recon Ride covers so many aspects of this race that there should still be plenty here to get you prepared for Tirreno-Adriatico.
Last week, VeloHuman published an article focused on the breakout stars of the 2014 season, continuing a tradition begun in 2013. Just as was the case last year, much of that analysis came out of a data-driven approach: VH charted rider performance differentials from last season to this one by looking at the points riders accumulated in that timeframe according to both Cycling Quotient and WorldTour Rankings and comparing the difference from one year to the next. Such an analysis makes it easy to see the most dramatic shifts in performance across the professional peloton. Providing a bit of data visualization and also the raw data itself proved a popular decision last year, allowing readers to draw their own conclusions about the ups and downs of the season, so VH decided to provide those tools again this year! Without further ado, the 50 biggest CQ points swings (for riders who were active this season—Mauro Santambrogio, suspended for the year, was left out of the graphic) between 2013 and 2014:
Just a few of the highlights that jump out from the graphic: injuries obviously played a huge role in 2014. Back problems, heart problems, broken wrists, broken collarbones, and broken ribs accounted for much of the red in the Top 50. For some riders, however, the dropoff in performance could not readily be attributed to a fracture or other ailment. Peter Sagan stood on two Monument podiums and won a Tour de France stage in 2013; he didn’t make a single Monument Top 3 and he went winless in the Tour this year. He still finished 2014 ranked 9th overall in CQ Points, but instead of progressing, as may have been expected of the still young star, Sagan seemed to stagnate. Alberto Contador, on the other hand, overcame injury to soar this season. He may have missed out on Tour results but he dominated the one-weekers of the early season, taking victory in Tirreno-Adriatico and Pais Vasco and 2nd in Catalunya and the Dauphine, and then came back with a vengeance in the Vuelta.
The red bar to the left of Vincenzo Nibali’s name may come as a surprise, but it shouldn’t; these are season-long rankings that take into account performances across the racing calendar. Nibali probably wouldn’t give up his season for the world, and a victory in the Tour de France makes it easy to ignore the entire rest of the year, but the Italian stage racing star plainly underwhelmed in the contests leading into the 2014 Tour, and did not put in many race days after Paris.
Heralded rising stars like Michal Kwiatkowski, Tom Van Asbroeck, Fabio Aru, and Tom Dumoulin soared up the various popular rider ranking systems this season and that is reflected here, but a few of the breakout performances you may have missed are shown as well: Pete Kennaugh made statements in several Continental Tour races, and with the powerful support of Team Sky he should continue to develop. Jerome Baugnies of Wanty – Groupe Gobert has been a consistent performer in lower level races across the past few months. Niccolo Bonifazio, who just turned 21 last month, has taken big results at home in Italy and abroad; he just won three stages and the Points Classification, as well as taking 2nd overall, in the Tour of Hainan, a fine way to close out his first full season as a pro.
The data visualization above offers some highlights from this season’s year-over-year rider ranking data but there is plenty more information to be gleaned from the raw numbers. If you are handy with data manipulation, you can draw conclusions of your own: click here to download the 2013–2014 data for the Top 500 riders of the season (on the CQ Ranking scale). Inside, you’ll find identifying biographical data (name, team, country, and birthdate) and CQ Ranking and WorldTour data from 2013 and 2014 along with the differentials across both seasons, so that you can filter and sort to your heart’s content as you make your own analysis. Keep in mind that Cycling Quotient’s ranking system and the WorldTour ranking system are different and favor different things—the CQ Ranking values Continental level results, for instance, while the WorldTour rankings do not. In fact, non-WorldTour riders do not score WT points at all even if they get results in WT races, which is why WorldTour ranking data doesn’t exist for plenty of names on the list. Both systems have their advantages, and ultimately, the sport’s biggest names score highly on both scales anyway.
