Tag: Alberto Contador

Vuelta a España 2014 Post-race Impressions: Takeaways from the Star-studded Final Grand Tour of the Year

The Vuelta is always an important opportunity for riders who have missed out on results in the early part of the season to take one final shot at Grand Tour success, but a particularly crash-heavy 2014 made this year’s Vuelta startlist one of the strongest in years. The late-season showdown, with many of the sport’s top talents in the mix, was a nice platform for several riders to make strong statements to close out the Grand Tour calendar.

Big Names Deliver in GC Battle

Alberto Contador has now ridden in the Vuelta three times in his career, and he’s won the overall victory each time. That is a stunning achievement in and of itself; this year’s victory is an especially impressive feat given the powerhouse startlist. Contador was untouchable in the mountains, and he was very good in the time trial as well. He also rode a tactically brilliant race; he had the weakest team of any of the top GC contenders, and it didn’t seem to matter at all. He followed the attacks he needed to follow, and didn’t waste energy with others. He was robbed of a chance to prove his strength at the 2014 Tour de France, but this ride at the 2014 Vuelta will be a warning to his rivals that he’ll be very hard to beat in the 2015 Tour.

Had Chris Froome continued throughout the race in the same shape that saw him lose a chunk of time to even Alejandro Valverde in a long, mostly flat time trial, it might have been cause for concern, but he ended the race very, very strong. It’s a shame it took him some time to get back to his best (it would have made for a better, more competitive race if he were able to put in the sort of time trial we know he’s capable of) but his main goal in starting this race was to ride well in a Grand Tour before the season’s end, and he absolutely did that. He may not have been able to touch Contador after falling behind early, but he should still come out of the race with confidence for 2015.

Nairo Quintana‘s abandonment following a bad crash took some excitement out of the race. Hopefully he will recover quickly for 2015; the strength he showed early this season will make him a top favorite in the Tour next year. Teammate Alejandro Valverde wasn’t able to threaten for the Vuelta overall once Contador took control, but that can’t take away from the amazing year he’s had. Among his many huge successes so far are victories in La Fleche Wallonne and San Sebastian, a Vuelta stage win, and Top 5s in the Amstel Gold Race, Liege-Bastogne-Liege, the Tour de France, and the Vuelta overall. His big ride in Spain came after a difficult Tour, to boot; it’s not easy to land a podium in the Vuelta on the heels of a three-week race finished less than a month before the start.

Joaquim Rodriguez, in 4th, never managed to contend, and he didn’t win a stage despite the presence of a very strong team. It was a disappointing ride given the expectations going in. His inability to match rival Valverde will be most frustrating for him. After dropping out of the Giro, Purito rode the Tour as a means of preparing for this race; it was an odd choice, and I’m not sure it was the right one.

Fabio Aru, on the other hand, should be thrilled with a 5th place result. He’s only 24, and he has now landed two Grand Tour Top 5s and three Grand Tour stage wins in the same year! It’s not easy to perform so well across two three-week races in one season, especially not as his young age. He made his “arrival” at the Giro, but I find his Vuelta a España, against so much top-tier talent and coming with plenty of race mileage in his legs already this year, just as impressive.

I’m not sure what Dan Martin‘s Grand Tour racing future holds because he clearly prefers the shorter events, but I’ve been saying for a while now that the has the talent to put in a Top 10 in a three-week event, if he could only avoid crashing or getting sick. It was good to see him finally deliver (7th overall), and against an elite startlist too. Warren Barguil, in 8th, also took a big career step. We knew he could climb, but could he perform at a high level across three weeks? It seems the answer is yes. He’s only 22.

Damiano Caruso was one of the biggest surprises of the race. He had never had a Top 10 in the General Classification of a WorldTour stage race coming into the Vuelta a España, and he picked up his first in a Grand Tour. BMC got a good one for next year.

Belkin will wish they’d gotten a bigger GC result out of this Vuelta, but they should be pleased with the performance of Robert Gesink, who was on track to land well inside the GC Top 10 before leaving the race for personal reasons. After a very tough start to the year and a long break spent recovering from a heart problem, that’s a very encouraging sign for Gesink.

A Few Thoughts on the Stagehunters

John Degenkolb dominated the sprints of the 2012 Vuelta, and his 2014 return to the race was a triumphant one. His four stage wins were impressive, especially the victory on Stage 5 over the very speedy Nacer Bouhanni. Degenkolb’s Points Classification victory may be even more impressive: it’s not easy for a sprinter to win the points jersey in the Vuelta, especially when versatile Alejandro Valverde is on the startlist, but Degenkolb was not to be denied once it became clear that green was within his reach. He missed out on a few opportunities at this year’s Tour due to an early injury in that race, but with the sort of speed he showed in Spain, he should be on track for plenty more success in the very near future, with the upcoming World Championships as a major target and the 2015 classics season and Tour beyond.

Alessandro De Marchi was another stagehunter who found success, picking up his first Grand Tour stage win after coming close several times in the past. He is emerging as one of the top breakaway talents in the peloton, showing a lot of strength when riding uphill on his own. He was King of the Mountains at the Dauphine in June, and riding off the front like he has been this year, a Grand Tour KOM jersey could be in his future.

Jasper Stuyven, who finished with six stage Top 10s, may not have come particularly close to any victories, but his consistent presence near the front on a variety of profiles bodes well for the future: he’s only 22. Yet another rising young talent for Belgium, who just announced a Worlds squad loaded with firepower.

Speaking of Worlds, it’s right around the corner! Stay tuned for VeloHuman previews of the team time trial, the individual time trial, and the road race, and be sure to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Ramón Peña.

September 16, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 20 Preview

Stage 20: Santo Estevo de Ribas de Sil › Puerto de Ancares – 185.7 km

Following an Adam Hansen victory on a day without many GC implications, Stage 20, the final mountain stage of the 2014 Vuelta a Espana, is here. The parcours should make for quite a showdown. There are four categorized climbs on the profile, and a few more uncategorized challenges, and the constant barrage of ascents will be an uncomfortable experience for a peloton that has been racing for three weeks. The final 32 kilometers are particularly difficult. The Alto de Folgueiras de Aigas is 9.7 kilometers long at an average of 6.7%; just the sort of test to wear out the legs before the vicious final climb of the 2014 Vuelta. The Puerto de Ancares is a monstrous challenge, 12.7 km at 8.7%. Several stretches are significantly steeper (one such stretch, at 12%, comes in the last 2 km), and there aren’t many easy sections to offer respite. The last mountain stage of the last Grand Tour of the year would likely see aggressive riding regardless, but this final climb practically guarantees that the attacks will fly.

The up-and-down second half will make it hard for the peloton to control the race, but as this is the last opportunity for the uphill specialists to shake up the General Classification, the GC men aren’t likely to hold back when the road goes up, which will make it hard for anyone up the road to stay clear. One thing is for certain: it will take an elite pair of climbing legs to win on this stage.

Several very steep sections on the final climb will favor the ultra-lightweight climber types, and few of them are as in-shape right now as race leader Alberto Contador. He’ll be able to follow the attacks, rather than make them, and he’s already shown how dangerous that makes him. His rivals will certainly throw everything they have at him, but when it’s mattered most in this race, Contador has not shown much weakness on the climbs.

Chris Froome has gotten much stronger over the course of this Vuelta, and he’s not going to let this chance to move up the leaderboard get away without a fight. The profile may look to suit some of his rivals a bit better, but Froome has looked strong enough these past few days that it may not matter. Expect to see him attempt a big attack on Stage 20 to try to open up a sizable gap to the rest of the GC contenders.

Joaquim Rodriguez should appreciate the steep finish. He’s been just a bit less strong on the climbs than he might have hoped coming into the Vuelta, but he’ll still have an opportunity to pick up the stage win here. He’s far enough back on the General Classification now that he may get a little bit of breathing room for Contador and Froome if he tries something.

Alejandro Valverde probably won’t get any space to attempt a move, but he’s still a danger. He seems content to hold wheels and hope for sprints even on the climbs that suit him, and that aversion to major risks, while it has kept him from ever picking up any huge gaps to his GC rivals, does make him a constant danger for stage success.

Fabio Aru will have a great opportunity to add to his tally of stage wins with this steep finale; Contador and Co. have shown on multiple occasions that they won’t chase down his attacks, and that gives him even more of an edge than he already has thanks to his awesome uphill ability. Repeating what’s been said in most of the other mountain stage previews so far, Dan Martin, Samuel Sanchez, Daniel Navarro, and Warren Barguil are others who look strong right now and who will probably have freedom to put in moves from the pack.

It’s always hard to predict potential breakaway protagonists, but at least this profile whittles down the list of realistic long-distance contenders to those with immense uphill talent. Ryder Hesjedal has been on excellent form in the Vuelta so far and this long day of climbing suits his one-time-Grand-Tour-winning skillset perfectly. Przemyslaw Niemiec is another rider with GC-style ability who should have a chance if he goes from afar; Damiano Cunego will be a strong card for Lampre-Merida to play as well. Alessandro De Marchi will love the constant up and down. Louis Meintjes has gotten stronger as this race has progressed, and he’ll have a nice opportunity if he can get into a move here on Stage 20. Romain Sicard, Mikel Landa, Wout Poels, Adam Yates and Esteban Chaves, Laurens Ten Dam, David Arroyo, Cadel Evans, and Mikel Nieve are others who might find success in a long-distance strike.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Alberto Contador | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Joaquim Rodriguez

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The final preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 20, so stay tuned. Also, don’t miss VH’s coverage the GPs Quebec and Montreal! The Quebec post-race is already up, and the Montreal preview is coming soon!

-Dane Cash

September 12, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 16 Preview

Stage 16: San Martín del Rey Aurelio › La Farrapona. Lagos de Somiedo – 160.5 km

After another tough day won by Przemyslaw Niemiec, Stage 16 closes out a trio of critical mountain stages in style, with no fewer than four Category 1 climbs (and a Cat. 2 thrown in for good measure), and the challenging profile won’t wait until the end of the day to test the peloton. The stage starts with 10 kilometers of slight incline before the first Cat. 1 is reached, the Alto de Colladona. After a tricky descent off the climb the riders will continue to go slightly downhill for another thirty kilometers or so, during which they will try to save as much energy as possible: after kilometer 60, it’s steep climbs or white-knuckle descents pretty much all the way to the finish line. First comes the Cat. 2 Alto del Cordal, followed by a descent right to the foot of the vicious Alto de la Cobertoria climb, a Cat. 1 of 10 kilometers at 8.8% (and it comes only halfway through the stage). From the top, the riders will take on a very technical downhill journey to Barzana, where the negative gradient will become gentler, but it won’t even out completely. When it does, after another 10 kilometers or so, the road kicks up again almost immediately, heading uphill in an uncategorized trip to the bottom of the categorized Puerto de San Lorenzo, another steep slope of 10.1 km at 8.5%. From the top it’s one more tricky descent the leads to one more uncategorized uphill trip to the foot of one more Cat. 1 climb: La Farrapona. It’s a long journey to the summit finish, 16.5 kilometers in total, and though the average gradient may seem manageable at 6.2%, the final 4 kilometers ratchet up the difficulty, with several stretches pushing over 10%.

While the Vuelta’s sixteenth stage is followed by a rest day and is one of the last opportunities the GC contenders will have to put each other under pressure in the mountains (two factors that could spur the red jersey hunters to a fast pace and a more likely catch of the morning break), the profile itself looks perfect for any aggressive riders who manage to get up the road. Early climbs will give the uphill specialists a good chance of getting into the day’s move, and the constant up-and-down will make it very difficult for anyone to control the race. This breakaway vs. GC bunch battle looks to be another tossup, which will again make it difficult to name anyone the clear favorite to take stage honors.

This very steep final climb should be yet another opportunity for Joaquim Rodriguez to get some separation from his rivals on the General Classification. He was unable to get clear of the rest of the red jersey hunters early on the last climb of Stage 15, and then spent most of the rest of the ascent letting Alberto Contador drive the pace, only sailing past in the final few hundred meters to steal a few seconds at the line. However, he won’t have many chances to get ahead after Stage 16, and the slope suits his style nicely. With time running out in this Vuelta, it’s hard to imagine that Katusha won’t look for stage honors and bonus seconds here. Daniel Moreno, as usual, will be a dependable second on these gradients.

Alberto Contador may have lost a bit of time to Rodriguez and Valverde on Stage 15, but only after pulling both of them up the mountain for quite some time. He continues to show impressive strength in this race, and a stage like this, with so many vertical meters on the day, will allow him to put his otherworldly uphill endurance on display.

Chris Froome again landed a good result after riding his own pace up a tough final climb on Stage 15. On peak form, he has the endurance to thrive on a hard stage like this; it will be interesting to see how he does despite not necesarilly being at his best. Alejandro Valverde took 2nd on Stage 15, but his nice result there didn’t necessarily show a whole lot more strength than we’ve seen just yet, as it came with a late jump around Alberto Contador (whom he’d been following for the last several kilometers) in the final few hundred meters. Stage 16 is one of the last chances for the climbers to create some space on the leaderboard, which should lead to more attacks on the final climb, and that will require more from Valverde. If he’s in a lead group in the last hundred meters, his sprint obviously makes him a top favorite, but that scenario will only occur if a lot of things go right for the 2008 winner of this race.

Dan Martin showed immense ability on Stage 15, finishing 11 seconds behind Chris Froome despite spending several kilometers just before the final climb chasing the pack after crashing. He’s far enough behind on GC that he should have a bit of freedom to put in a late dig. Fabio Aru, in a similar position, remains a nice candidate for stage honors with this steep finish if it is, in fact, the GC men who are vying for the day. Robert Gesink, Daniel Navarro, and Samuel Sanchez are others on the fringes of the GC battle who have shown strength in the past few mountain days and who are also good candidates to get clear of the rest of the GC types on the final ascent.

Several potential long-distance protagonists kept their powder dry and stayed in the pack on Stage 15. Ryder Hesjedal was one of them, but he did expend a lot of energy dragging Dan Martin back to the GC group after Martin’s crash. He’ll still be among the favorites if he gets into the day’s move, but it would be an impressive ride indeed if he were to succeed here after two tough days on the bike. David Arroyo was 8th on the stage that Hesjedal won from the break, and this will be another great opportunity for the pure climber to try for a long-range strike. Teammate Amets Txurruka is a good candidate to give it a go as well. Esteban Chaves has fallen out of GC contention in this Vuelta, and he could be hoping to get into the break on Stage 16, which has a steep finale that suits him; teammate Adam Yates is another likely long-distance hopeful. Astana’s Mikel Landa, Stage 15 winner Przemyslaw Niemiec of Lampre-Merida (if he still has anything left in the tank after two days in the break), his teammate Damiano Cunego, Belkin’s Laurens Ten Dam, OPQS’s Gianluca Brambilla and Wouter Poels, MTN-Qhubeka’s Sergio Pardilla and Louis Meintjes, Lotto Belisol’s Bart de Clercq, and Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi are other good candidates for breakaway success.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Joaquim Rodriguez | 2. Alberto Contador | 3. Daniel Martin

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! With a rest day on tap after Stage 16, the next preview will be up on Tuesday, so stay tuned for more.

-Dane Cash

September 7, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 15 Preview

Stage 15: Oviedo › Lagos de Covadonga – 152.2 km

The Vuelta’s fifteenth stage is the second in a trio of intense mountain days (the first went to Ryder Hesjedal from the breakaway). Stage 15 is the shortest non-TT stage in the race at 152.2 kilometers, but the uphill challenges will make this a long day for everyone involved. Small, uncategorized hills are interspersed throughout the first 100 kilometers. Then comes the first categorized test of the day, the Puerto del Torno, a Cat. 2 of 7.2 kilometers at an 8.2% average gradient. The slopes are irregular, with several very steep sections on the way up; in other words, it’s harder than it looks. A tricky descent comes next, followed by a brief respite before the final climb: the iconic Lagos de Covadonga. 12.2 kilometers in length at an average grade of 7.2%, it’s another irregular ascent with several stretches (in the first half of the journey and then again at the very end) that push over 10%. It may rain, which would make this an even more difficult trip skyward.

It’s tough to say one way or the other whether the pack will let the break stay clear here. Coming after one hard day and with yet another to follow, the GC riders could take the first half of the day at a less than furious pace, hoping to save a little energy for all the climbing yet to come. That would give the break a good chance on a profile that is already breakaway-friendly. However, both Chris Froome and Joaquim Rodriguez took a bit of time from Alberto Contador on Stage 14, suggesting that maybe he’s not as invincible as he has seemed so far in the race, and that may give Katusha and Sky the confidence and the motivation to put up more of a fight then they have so far and hunt down the valuable bonus seconds that await at the finish line.

That uncertainty means that no single rider stands out as the indisputable favorite, but there are a few likely top protagonists for each scenario. Should this all come back together for a GC showdown for stage honors, I see Alberto Contador as the day’s most likely winner. He may have lost a bit of time on Stage 14, but he did spend more energy than he probably should have trying to chase down Alejandro Valverde. Ultimately, Valverde lost time, and Contador has to know that Rodriguez and Froome are the most dangerous rivals now. The Lagos de Covadonga climb suits Contador quite well, and he’ll want to do what he can here to close the door of opportunity that may have cracked open just a bit on Stage 14.

Chris Froome‘s Vuelta a España has been enigmatic, to say the least. Who would have expected him to lose time to Alejandro Valverde in the time trial, only to outshine even Purito just days later on a climb with stretches of 20% gradients in the finale? This climb, less explosive except in the last hundred meters or so at the very top, should suit him a bit better, and if he can get away before the final two kilometers he’ll be hard to track down.

Joaquim Rodriguez couldn’t escape from Chris Froome on Stage 14, but he did show strength in putting some daylight between himself and Contador. He’ll have another shot at stage honors on Stage 15, if the GC men are battling for the day and if he can hold on until the very steep final run to the line that will give him a chance to put his elite uphill kick on display.

This is another good opportunity for Astana’s Fabio Aru to take a stage win. He crossed the line on Stage 14 just after Alberto Contador, and, still over two minutes down on GC, he will probably be given some breathing room if he tries to go on the move on Stage 15. Robert Gesink, Daniel Martin, Daniel Navarro, Daniel Moreno, and Mikel Nieve (if Team Sky is inclined to send him up the road) could face the same reaction if attempt to get clear of the GC bunch on the final slopes. Alejandro Valverde, on the other hand, still 2nd overall though losing ground to Froome and Rodriguez, will have plenty of eyes on him and a lot of pressure to bounce back here. That’s not out of the question, and this stage, which eases in the final few kilometers and then hits a steep wall at the very end, does suit him, but he’ll need to find an extra gear fast if he wants to keep his place on GC secure.

No one potential breakaway protagonist could be called a top favorite for Stage 15, but there are several riders who will be well-positioned for glory if they can get out front of the peloton in a long-distance move. More than ten minutes behind on GC, Esteban Chaves is far enough off the radar of the top GC contenders that he should have some freedom to go up the road, and while he hasn’t yet put in a spectacular performance on one of the mountain stages in this Vuelta, he’s still been reasonably strong even when battling among the fringe GC contenders. Teammate Adam Yates might to try give this a go as well. Astana’s Mikel Landa, Trek’s Julian Arredondo, Lampre-Merida’s Damiano Cunego, OPQS’s Gianluca Brambilla, Belkin’s Laurens Ten Dam, MTN-Qhubeka’s Sergio Pardilla, and Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi are other top-notch climbers who could shine in a long-range attack. Ryder Hesjedal, Davide Arroyo, Romain Sicard, and Louis Meintjes will likely be feeling the effects of spending Stage 14 out front when they set out on Stage 15, but depending on each rider’s ability to recover quickly, any one of them could feature again soon

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Alberto Contador | 2. Chris Froome | 3. Fabio Aru

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 15, so stay tuned.

-Dane Cash

September 6, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 14 Preview

Santander › La Camperona. Valle de Sabero – 200.8 km

Stage 13, won by Dani Navarro, saw a skirmish among the GC riders in its final few kilometers, but the impending fourteenth stage of the Vuelta will likely be an intense battle among the top overall contenders of this race. The uphill challenges on Stage 14 are daunting. Things get started with 70 kilometers of mostly gentle roads before the Cat. 2 Collada de la Hoz kicks off the day’s categorized climbing. After cresting that ascent and then riding a tricky downhill, the peloton will take on approximately twenty kilometers of false flat at a slight incline before reaching the bottom of the Puerto de San Glorio, 20.9 kilometers long at a 5.8% average grade. There are sure to be some tired legs in the pack once they reach the top after over forty kilometers going uphill, but there will still be challenges yet to come on the day. Following a fast descent comes a long stretch of mostly flat roads before the final test. After 192.5 kilometers in the saddle, the peloton will reach the foot of La Camperona, a vicious 8.3 kilometer climb whose average gradient of 7.5% doesn’t really tell the whole story. Things start out relatively easy, but with around 2 kilometers to go, the road kicks up sharply, and it stays in the 15% range, touching well over 20% at points, until the final hundred meters or so, where things ease off to be only a little under 9% in the run to the line.

A profile like this will be absolutely brutal for all but the most lightweight climbing specialists. The GC contenders will be locked in on the final ascent, knowing that a bad day could lead to serious losses on such a steep climb (especially after some hard uphill riding earlier in the day). Stage 14 is likely to end in a major showdown for the red jersey hunters. Whether or not they are riding for stage honors will depend on how they play the run-in to La Camperona; if the pace is kept high over the flat section that precedes the final climb, with riders jostling for position as the slopes approach, the morning break will be doomed. However, there are some tough mountain days to come in the days ahead, which could lead to enough hesitation in the pack that if a truly top-notch climber is up the road, he might have a chance.

The top favorite to shine on this profile is Katusha’s Joaquim Rodriguez, the peloton’s premier uphill charger. He has put in attacks here and there in this race, but nothing has really stuck so far. This time, the parcours is perfect, and he needs to land a blow soon or he’ll have run out of opportunities to claw back time from those ahead of him on the leaderboard. He has the also explosive Daniel Moreno as an elite second.

Race leader Alberto Contador has been up to every challenge thrown his way in this race so far, and he should continue to shine here. His biggest weakness is his lack of team support, but he may be strong enough for that not to matter. He’s not the type to rest on his laurels (or his current race lead), and if he sees an opportunity to pick up more time on his rivals, he will.

Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde is very dangerous on the extreme gradients, and he’s within striking distance of the overall lead. A strong ride seems likely on Stage 14, but he needs to get more aggressive in this race if he wants to move up to that coveted first spot in the General Classification.

Astana’s Fabio Aru took the eleventh stage of the race with a perfectly timed attack as the finish line approached, and he is still far enough back on GC that the riders at the very top of the leaderboard might give him some leeway if he tries to go on the move again. He has the skillset to achieve more success here. Garmin-Sharp’s Daniel Martin is in a similar boat, and he’s shown with repeated attempts to get away on the steep stuff that he’s highly motivated to get results on these climbs.

Robert Gesink, who looked strong in an ultimately unsuccessful attempt to get clear of the GC bunch on Stage 11, Samuel Sanchez, Stage 13 winner Daniel Navarro, and Warren Barguil are other riders in the GC conversation who could enjoy a bit of freedom and potentially success if they attempt to get clear on the last climb. Chris Froome, who has at times looked very strong, and at times looked to be lacking something in this race, will be put to the test on this gradient; at his best he’d be a top candidate for success, but there won’t be anywhere to hide if he’s not feeling in peak condition when the road shoots skyward on Stage 14. Teammate Mikel Nieve could look to get something of his own if Sky decides to set him loose.

If the pack does put in the effort to keep the breakaway on a tight leash early in the day, it will be very hard for anyone up the road to stay clear all the way to the top of the final climb, but should the GC contenders spend the stage looking at each other instead of worrying about the break, it’s possible that a strong uphill talent could hold out for victory here. Trek’s Julian Arredondo, Garmin-Sharp’s Ryder Hesjedal, Astana’s Mikel Landa, OGE’s Esteban Chaves and Adam Yates, Lampre’s Przemyslaw Niemiec, Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi, and Belkin’s Laurens Ten Dam are on the list of strong-climbing riders who might be able to succeed from the morning breakaway; alternatively, some of the aforementioned group could look to put in a dig a bit closer to the finish line, still benefitting from being far enough out of GC contention that they might be given some breathing room.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Joaquim Rodriguez | 2. Fabio Aru | 3. Alberto Contador

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 14, so stay tuned.

-Dane Cash

September 5, 2014
Vuelta a España 2014: Stage 11 Preview

Stage 11: Pamplona › Santuario de San Miguel de Aralar – 153.4 km

Even after a tough time trial (won by Tony Martin) that saw Alberto Contador take the red jersey and Nairo Quintana and Chris Froome lose a lot of time, dramatically shaking up the General Classification of this race, the peloton won’t have a chance to rest on Stage 11. Another summit finish is on tap. The first two thirds of the stage are relatively tame, without any categorized climbs, but things get a bit more difficult with around 50 kilometers to go, when the road rises at the Puerto de Lizarraga, a Cat. 3 of 18.3 long kilometers with an average grade of 2.6%. It’s an uneven climb with a steep stretch at the top, so it is harder than the low gradient indicates. From the top it’s a tricky descent of about 9 kilometers, and then a stretch of flat before the final climb, a 9.9 kilometer Category 1 with an average gradient of 7.5%. It’s a fairly steady climb, except for a short 14% section at around 2.5 km from the top. The summit finish marks 153.4 kilometers in the saddle, making Stage 10 the second shortest non-TT day in the race: this is likely going to be a fast-paced affair.

The breakaway will have its chance of taking this stage, but if the GC contenders decide to keep the early aggressors on a tight leash, it will be hard for anyone up the road to stay away with a late flat section (likely to see an injection of pace as the GC men jostle for position) and then a tough final climb. Katusha is among the teams who will hope that the battle for stage honors will come down to the GC contenders. Joaquim Rodriguez put in a respectable time trial on Stage 10 to stay within striking distance of the GC title, and he has already shown that he’s on the offensive in this race. The steep section near the finish should be a perfect place for him to strike out for a gap and for bonus seconds. Daniel Moreno makes for a dangerous ally. Katusha’s elite uphill talents will be very hard to keep under control in the last few kilometers of the race.

Alberto Contador no longer has to gain ground on anyone, as the race leader, but without a strong team helping him, sitting tight and waiting for the attacks may not be the best idea. He’s obviously on excellent form, far more so than he was willing to admit publicly at the start of the race, and he’s not the type to rest on his laurels with a great opportunity for more success right in front of him.

Nairo Quintana may have gone down hard on Stage 10 but Movistar isn’t out of this race yet. If the young Colombian wants to get back into this Vuelta a España, he’ll need to attack early and often. Alternatively, if he shifts his attention to helping Alejandro Valverde, attacking early and often (and forcing the other GC riders to chase) would still be a good strategy. Quintana’s form is an unknown after his fall, but if he’s feeling strong enough to attack, he probably will. That would give Valverde the opportunity to latch onto any wheels that go chasing after, and should this come down a sprint (things are a bit easier at the very top), Valverde would of course be the heavy favorite among the top GC contenders. Even if Quintana isn’t at his best, Valverde will still likely be in the mix on Stage 11 on his own. He has looked sharp in this Vuelta and he’s running out of opportunities to add another Grand Tour to his palmares.

Chris Froome, on the other hand, showed in the Stage 10 ITT that he’s just not at his best in this race, giving up nearly a minute to Alberto Contador on a parcours that looked to suit him quite well. He’s still one of the top climbers in the Vuelta, though, with Mikel Nieve as a valuable second, so it would be unwise to overlook Team Sky on this final climb.

Rigoberto Uran put in a great chrono and is now sitting in 3rd overall. He struggled to hold the pace on the first climbing stage of the Vuelta, but since then he’s looked stronger every day. He’s got a nice sprint and if he can hold onto the lead group to the line he’ll have a shot. Fabio Aru has been flying a bit under the radar in this Vuelta but he has looked to be in excellent shape thus far. More than two minutes behind on GC, he might be allowed some room if he puts in an attack, and this final climb suits him very well. Daniel Martin is another rider who could get aggressive. He tried an attack on Stage 9 but was reeled in; he’ll be on the lookout for another opportunity here. Esteban Chaves, who had a very rough day in the ITT, will at least now be less of a marked man should he try to put in a dig on his favored terrain. If he can pick himself up after his disappointing chrono, he could be in the mix (he might even try to his luck in the break). Winner Anacona, unlike compatriot Chaves, had a very impressive ride against the clock on Stage 10 after a very impressive breakaway victory on Stage 9, and those performances have put him into the GC conversation. That will make it harder to successfully attack the pack on the climb, but with the form he’s shown, he still has a shot at a good result on Stage 11 even from the pack and with the top GC contenders watching him more closely.

Should the GC riders allow an early move to stay up the road all day, the long list of potential protagonists for stage honors from afar would include OGE’s Adam Yates, FDJ’s Thibaut Pinot and Kenny Elissonde, Garmin’s Ryder Hesjedal and Andrew Talansky, Lampre’s Jose Serpa and Przemyslaw Niemiec, Trek’s Julian Arredondo, BMC’s Cadel Evans, Astana’s Mikel Landa, Cannondale’s Alessandro De Marchi, Caja Rural’s David Arroyo and Amets Txurruka, Belkin’s Laurens Ten Dam, Europcar’s Romain Sicard, and Sky’s Dario Cataldo, among others.

VeloHuman Stage Favorites

1. Joaquim Rodriguez | 2. Alberto Contador | 3. Alejandro Valverde

Be sure follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for live commentary of this and every stage of the 2014 Vuelta a España! The next preview will be up after the conclusion of Stage 11, so stay tuned.

-Dane Cash

September 2, 2014