Tag: Alberto Contador

Criterium du Dauphine 2014 Preview

As one Grand Tour ends, the run-up to another begins. The Critérium du Dauphiné (I’m hereafter dropping the accents for various Internet-friendly reasons) is one of the most important stage races of the year. It is one of two major tuneup events for July’s Tour de France (the other being the Tour de Suisse). The balanced route of the Dauphine, which includes a time trial, flat stages, hilly stages, and some difficult mountains, offers excellent preparation for the Tour. Many of the likely stars of La Grande Boucle make the start to face off against their major rivals. Bradley Wiggins won in 2012 and Chris Froome was winner in 2013; both went on to win the Tour. With such an elite field and over sixty years of history, the Dauphine is a major event in its own right.

A quick note before I dive in: I’m not previewing individual stages, but I’ll be tweeting stage picks and live analysis, so remember to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter.

The Route

The 2014 edition of the Criterium du Dauphine wastes no time in kicking off the GC competition, beginning with a 10.4 kilometer individual time trial. It’s a short test but it includes a Category 4 climb (800 meters at 5.5%). It’s also somewhat technical, its route meandering through winding roads along the banks of the Saône. The distance won’t open up any massive gaps, but it will establish a small early advantage for some GC riders.

Stage 2: Tarare › Pays d’Olliergues-Col du Béal (156 km) – Things turn mountainous quickly with an HC-rated climb to close out the second stage.

Stage 2 guarantees that none of those riders who got out to an early lead on Day 1 can rest on their laurels: the 156 kilometer journey sets out from Tarare and crests five categorized climbs before one final ascent to the finish atop the Hors Categorie Col du Beal. 13.6 km at 6.6%, it’s not the hardest climb in the world but it’s certain to weed out pretenders before the race even enters its third day.

Stages 3 has some bumps, but with a long flat run in to the finish, it is unlikely to shake up the General Classification. Stage 4 rides on many of the same roads as Stage 16 of last year’s Tour de France (won from the break by Rui Costa). There is a challenging climb crested a little over 10km from the finish that might see GC attacks go clear.

Stage 5 is another hilly affair with a pair of Category 2 ascents in the final 50 km. Stage 6 is mostly flat, but it gets bumpy towards the end of the day, with a vicious little climb in the final few kilometers that could prove challenging for the sprinters.

Stage 7: Ville-la-Grand › Finhaut-Emosson (160 km) – There is nowhere to hide on the final climb of the seventh stage, which has sections above 10%.

Stage 7 will pack quite a punch, challenging the riders with the Hors Categorie Col de la Forclaz (12.6 km at an 8.2% average) crested with 18 km to go, and then, after a short descent, another HC-rated climb to finish the day, 10.2 km at an 8% average, with a few extremely steep sections.

Things do not get much easier for Stage 8, which tosses in a pair of Cat. 1s to close out the day, and the Dauphine as a whole. The difficult conclusion ensures that nothing will be decided on GC until the very end of the race.

The overall route does not include any truly grueling ascents, but it is quite hilly, and the many days of ups and downs will certainly wear on the peloton, putting the climbers in the spotlight. Bonus seconds of 10-6-4 at the line will benefit the faster finishers. This year’s race includes far fewer time trial kilometers than recent editions have, which is likely to open things up a bit after recent domination from the chrono-loving Team Sky.

The General Classification Contenders

The startlist is stacked with talent (and it is important to note that it isn’t completely settled as of this writing), but there are two clear favorites for the overall victory. The first is Sky’s Chris Froome. Even with reduced time trial mileage, Froome is likely to excel in this race, as it is a very important part of his and his team’s program. After injury derailed the first few European races of his season, Froome got back on track in a major way at the Tour de Romandie, where he outclimbed almost everyone else and then won the time trial and with it, the General Classification.

Chris Froome looks to be back in top shape after struggling with injury early in 2014.

The importance of this race to Froome’s 2014 campaign is obvious given the talent his team is sending to back his efforts: constant lieutenant Richie Porte, runner-up in last year’s race, will make the start, an elite talent at all levels who makes a viable second should his team leader suffer misfortune. Porte has had a difficult year as well, but on talent alone he has to be considered a secondary contender for the overall. Geraint Thomas is another all-round talent likely to contribute in a big way (also, watch out for him in the opening ITT). David Lopez and Mikel Nieve are two of Sky’s top mountain domestiques. The British squad is fully committed to winning the Dauphine for the fourth straight time as part of a strong statement in the run-up to Froome’s Tour defense, and with the star finally back from his ailments, it’s hard to see past Sky here.

Alberto Contador of Tinkoff-Saxo is the rider most likely to challenge the Sky juggernaut. Contador has put in some of the finest racing of his life in 2014, winning Tirreno-Adriatico and Pais Vasco and coming in 2nd in Catalunya, climbing at an otherworldly level in every mountain stage. He will have several opportunities to attack on this climber-centric parcours. Few will be able to match him if he has maintained the form he showed at the beginning of the year, though he has not raced for two months, making that a bit of a question mark. Further, in the past, Contador has not focused on this race as heavily as Sky has, and that may be the case again this year; the squad Tinkoff-Saxo sends to support him is not nearly as strong as Chris Froome’s. Chief lieutenant Roman Kreuziger, for instance, will be absent, taking on the Tour de Suisse instead. At Contador’s best and most focused, that might not matter (especially with the very steep Stage 7 on the program), but there are enough concerns that Contador is the second of my two favorites rather than the first.

Astana’s Vincenzo Nibali is third favorite with the bookmakers in this race (just as he is in the upcoming Tour de France), but he enters the Dauphine with a number of question marks. Obviously the aggressive winner of the 2013 Giro (and runner-up of the 2013 Vuelta) is a top climber who will love the profile. He also has an excellent supporting cast. However, he has not had the 2014 that he would have hoped for, starting out very slowly and only really showing flashes of his form in the Tour de Romandie, where he still settled for 5th despite being one of the major favorites. If he has managed to build on his form and has reached that top level he is capable of, he will challenge for the victory, but that is not a given. Astana has the excellent all-rounder Jakob Fuglsang to help in the mountains or to act as an alternative if necessary. He has a knack for finding himself Top 10s even when riding for Nibali.

Katusha’s Simon Spilak has had a very impressive 2014. Always a strong climber, the 27-year-old is coming into his own as a featured rider for his team, soaring to new heights on the slopes but also sporting an improved time trial. He will be the guy for Katusha at the Tour de France, making this an important opportunity for him to make a statement. With the form that won him a stage and 2nd overall in Romandie, Spilak (something of a specialist in these one-week races) is primed to challenge for the victory against the very biggest names in the sport. He’ll also have last year’s 3rd place finisher Daniel Moreno on his side. Though Moreno has just finished a grueling Grand Tour, he can’t be counted out either: Katusha needs to find some results after Purito’s rough exit from the Giro.

Tejay van Garderen was having a very strong 2014 (with a 2nd in the Tour of Oman behind Chris Froome and a stage victory and 3rd overall in Catalunya among his results) before abandoning the Tour de Romandie following a crash. He returned to the USA to recover and is now back in Europe prepping for the Tour, where he will be BMC’s sole leader for the first time. The TvG of years past may have been more of a time trial specialist, which would at first glance make this a less favorable Dauphine than he’s used to, but he was climbing at an elite level early in the year, suggesting a refocused approach. If he’s recovered completely from his crash, he should contend here, especially given recent statements that suggest he is taking this race very seriously.

Fellow American Andrew Talansky has had an okay 2014. He landed in the Top 10 in Catalunya and looked good in Romandie until a dropped chain on a tough climb ruined his chances for a strong result. Like van Garderen, Talansky seems to have focused on improving his climbing this year (possibly even at the expense of his top-notch time trial) which will be crucial in this Dauphine. He tends to perform well in short stage races, even against top talent, and he’ll have recent Giro Top 10 finisher Ryder Hesjedal for support.

AG2R sends a powerful 1-2 punch with Jean-Christophe Peraud and Romain Bardet. Peraud was excellent in the spring, landing a string of great results capped off by a Criterium International victory. He cooled off at Romandie but with some time to return to form he should be able to play a role here. Teammate Romain Bardet is a sharp climbing with an aggressive streak. He’s looked good this year and, unlike many of the other contenders, he won’t be coming in cold, as he has just completed the Bayern Rundfahrt. The strong AG2R duo should be able to land at least one rider in the Top 10.

OPQS wunderkind Michal Kwiatkowski returns to racing after some time off. As usual, it’s hard to know what to expect. He is one of the most versatile riders in the sport and he does not have an off-switch, so it seems likely that he’ll be going 100% on every stage, but the mountains will be a challenge. He will be one of the top contenders for the opening ITT, and bonus seconds favor his fast finish, so he will at least be in the conversation. Jan Bakelants is another all-round talent who could decide to make a bid for the overall.

Movistar’s Beñat Intxausti gets a rare opportunity to ride for his own ambitions, as Tour leader Alejandro Valverde is riding the Route de Sud instead. When given these chances, Intxausti does not usually disappoint, and he was one of the strongest on the slopes in the Tour de Romandie. Igor Anton and John Gadret will offer more options on the climbs. NetApp-Endura’s Leopold Konig has struggled with a knee injury in 2014, but he returned to racing at Bayern Rundfahrt and looked strong there. At his best, he’s a top climber who shouldn’t be underestimated. Maintaining a high level of form for so long is a lot to ask of Belkin’s Wilco Kelderman but he has been nothing if not surprising in 2014, and bonus seconds favor his very fast finish. Lampre’s Damiano Cunego also has some Giro mileage in his legs, but like Kelderman, he’ll enjoy the chance to fight for bonus seconds. OGE’s young Adam Yates will hope to continue his excellent year against this top competition. Europcar’s Tommy Voeckler has not produced the sort of results he tends to aim for, but it’s a good route for him. Lotto Belisol’s Jurgen Van Den Broeck finally returns to racing. It’s been a very rough year for the Belgian, who has been bothered by a knee injury, but this is a very important race for him to prove that he belongs in Lotto’s Tour squad. Cofidis’s Daniel Navarro and Rein Taaramae and Trek’s duo of veteran Haimar Zubeldia and up-and-comer Bob Jungels are other outsiders.

The Stagehunters

While the Tour’s biggest GC names are making the Dauphine start in preparation for July’s big race, many of the top sprinters are conspicuously absent. The parcours may have something to do with it, as there aren’t a lot of sprinting opportunities here. Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo, coming off his strong Giro, and FDJ’s Arnaud Demare, who has racked up quite a collection of wins this year, headline the list. Both excel on similar terrain, so it will be an interesting battle between the two in the flat finishes. OPQS’s Gianni Meersman, BMC’s Thor Hushovd, OGE’s Leigh Howard, and Giant-Shimano’s Reinardt Janse van Rensburg will hope to challenge them.

The list of versatile, quick finisher types who thrive on the hilly profiles is impressive. OGE’s Simon Gerrans and Daryl Impey, FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, Lampre’s Filippo Pozzato, Lotto’s Tony Gallopin, Europcar’s Cyril Gautier, BMC’s Greg Van Avermaet, and OPQS’s Zdenek Stybar could battle with some of the fast-finishing GC riders (Michael Kwiatkowski especially) for the intermediate days, though they’ll have to keep an eye on solo artists like Trek’s Jens Voigt, Astana’s Lieuwe Westra, Belkin’s Lars Boom, IAM’s Sylvain Chavanel, and Garmin’s Ramunas Navardauskas.

VeloHuman Top 10 GC Favorites

Winner: Chris Froome
Podium: Alberto Contador, Simon Spilak
Other Top Contenders: Vincenzo Nibali, Tejay van Garderen, Andrew Talansky, Beñat Intxausti, Romain Bardet, Richie Porte, Jakob Fuglsang

I won’t be previewing individual stages, but as usual I’ll have plenty of picks and analysis at the still relatively new @VeloHuman on Twitter! Also, be sure to come back soon, as there are plenty of big things coming at VeloHuman: previews of the Tour de Suisse and every stage of the Tour de France, as well as interviews with some fast-rising young pros! Stay tuned.

-Dane Cash

Photos by Georges Menager.

June 6, 2014
Vuelta Ciclista al Pais Vasco 2014 Preview

GC Stars Take on The Tour of the Basque Country

Fabian Cancellara has just won a thrilling Tour of Flanders sticking a late move with Greg Van Avermaet, Sep Vanmarcke, and Stijn Vandenbergh and outgunning all three Belgians at the line. Check back soon for a post-race impressions on De Ronde, and remember to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter for more. The cobbled experts remain in Northern Europe through the week waiting for the Hell of the North to kick off. Meanwhile, many of the pro peloton’s top GC riders are on again in Spain, lining up for the Tour of the Basque Country. The often rainy, rarely flat journey through the region, a spectacle notable enough to be mentioned in Hemingway’s The Sun Also Rises, draws an impressive start list to match its always-exciting parcours. In fact, every winner since 2007 also has at least one Grand Tour win or 2nd place in a Grand Tour on his palmares. Last year’s victor, Nairo Quintana, went on to take 2nd overall in the 2013 Tour de France. He is not returning to defend his title, but Alberto Contador, Quintana’s Grand Tour winning teammate Alejandro Valverde, and many other heavy hitters will line up to take on the ups and downs of Pais Vasco.

Stages 4 and 6 will be crucial GC battlegrounds at the 2014 Tour of the Basque Country

Though a stage or two might go to a sprinter, none of the stages in the Tour of the Basque country could be considered “flat.” The very 1st stage might create time gaps if a punchy climber launches on one of the many sharp Category 2 ascents on the day, including a one starting within 10 kilometers of the finish. The 4th and 6th stages could be most decisive: Stage 4 finishes with a climb of Arrate (though it ends on a short downhill), where Nairo Quintana climbed to the stage victory in 2013. Anyone with ambitions of winning this race, however, will have to keep it together through the 6th and final stage, a 25.9 kilometer time trial with a pair of serious climbs along the way. And throughout the week, you can expect rainy weather to force all the contenders to adapt.

All-Rounder Roundup

After his dominant victory at Tirreno-Adriatico and strong showing for 2nd place at Catalunya, the GC conversation at Pais Vasco has to start with two-time winner of this race, Alberto Contador. Tinkoff-Saxo’s star is back with a vengeance in 2014, and this is an event in which he has a great history of success. While the race lacks an interminable uphill slog to a summit finish that one might see in a Grand Tour, there are plenty of climbing miles for Alberto to wear down lesser challengers. Moreover, the stage 6 time trial will favor Contador’s high endurance game over the purer climbers who struggle against the clock. Tinkoff-Saxo does not send their top rider to Pais Vasco alone, however; Roman Kreuziger joins Contador for this race as he joined him at Tirreno-Adriatico, where he finished on the podium. As an Ardennes-winner with the ability to jump ahead on the short steep climbs (of which there are many in this race), Roman Kreuziger is a danger man. He also has a great time trial. Tinkoff-Saxo’s one-two punch will put other teams under a ton of pressure.

Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde has not raced the Basque Country often in recent years, but he had a great deal of success earlier in his career, coming in 2nd in 2006 and nabbing several stage wins across multiple editions. A two time Liege-Bastogne-Liege winner, and also a winner of the Basque Country’s most famous one day race, the Clasica de San Sebastian, Valverde has some experience finding the perfect launching pad among a succession of climbs. He can also hold his own against the clock, especially in the mountains. Most importantly, he’s on fire in 2014, having already won a slew of lower level victories. As usual, Movistar sends plenty of support. Basque Country native Benat Intxausti was 8th here in 2013 and 2nd in 2010. He packs both excellent climbing ability and a strong time trial. Young Jon Izagirre, another rider from El Pais Vasco and a former Euskaltel squad member to boot, will also look to use his combined climbing and trialing ability to make a showing in this race. With several strong options, Movistar will likely be very active this week.

World Champion Rui Costa is an excellent all-rounder who will love the stage profiles; only a few singularly grueling climbs, many small but difficult ascents thrown in, and a hilly time trial to finish (Costa is strong against the clock when there is climbing involved). Costa will look for every opportunity to jump off the front when the rest of the peloton grinds to a halt going uphill, not only because every second will count in this race (though there are no bonus seconds at the line), but also because he’s still looking for his first win in the rainbow jersey in 2014. Teammate Damiano Cunego has had many strong results in Pais Vasco, with numerous top 10s in the past few years.

BMC’s Tejay van Garderen is coming off an excellent trip to Catalunya, where he climbed his way to his first WorldTour victory on stage 4, and 3rd place overall. He must be ecstatic to have landed such fine results in a race without a time trial. In Pais Vasco, the American all-rounder will be salivating at the final day’s test against the clock, which will suit his engine. In addition, his Catalunya victory seems to show an improved ability to explode uphill, which will help van Garderen in the days prior to the final chrono. BMC will be backing him up with quite a supporting cast. Cadel Evans makes the trip to prepare for the Giro. Samuel Sanchez, who has a great history of success in this race, winning in 2012, will look to put together a result for his new team. He was still a bit off his game in Catalunya but the Tour of the Basque Country suits him and I believe he will be motivated to step up.

Paris-Nice winner Carlos Betancur heads up the suddenly world-beating AG2R team. Minor injury put his participation in question until the last minute, but he seems set to start. He was 7th last year, and on stellar form in 2014, he’s a great bet to pick up time charging ahead on the early stages of this race; the biggest challenge for Betancur will be the final stage, as he generally struggles against the clock. Teammate Jean-Christophe Peraud may actually be the better overall bet, coming off basically the first big victory of his very long career in the Criterium International last week. He is good against the clock, especially in this kind of ITT, and with his 4th place at Tirreno-Adriatico he showed an impressive ability to contend with the top GC guys right now. Versatile Christophe Riblon is yet another option for AG2R.

Early season star Michal Kwiatkowski had a very disappointing Tirreno-Adriatico, and his only race since was a DNF at Milano-Sanremo. He was on blazing form in February and March, but it is unclear if he has still kept that top-shelf shape into April. If so, he is very dangerous here, with so many short climbs that suit him much better than the grueling T-A stage that sunk his hopes in that race. If he can limit his losses uphill, especially on Stage 4, he will be a strong contender to win the final time trial outright, making him a good bet for the overall at Pais Vasco 2014.

Belkin’s dynamic duo of Bauke Mollema and Robert Gesink (3rd here in 2011) will hope that Pais Vasco goes better for them than Tirreno-Adriatico did (Mollema was well of the pace and Gesink abandoned T-A with a health issue). Both have looked good in other races this season, and I think the Pais Vasco parcours will be good for them. Simon Spilak leads the Katusha charge; 4th in 2013, he’s looked alright so far in 2014 with results that include a Top 10 in Paris-Nice. He can do a decent time trial when there are hills involved. FDJ sends Thibaut Pinot, who looked to be rounding into form at Catalunya after struggling to get his season started. Garmin-Sharp’s Ryder Hesjedal also looked to be getting back into shape at Catalunya after not participating in many races so far in 2014. He was 6th at the Gran Premio Miguel Indurain this week, so he seems to be continuing to improve. Andy and Frank Schleck headline Trek Factory Racing. Frank has looked decent so far this year, but teammate Robert Kiserlovski might be their most on-form rider here after his 7th in Tirreno-Adriatico and 10th in Catalunya.

Orica-GreenEdge’s Pieter Weening showed in last year’s Tour de Pologne that a hilly time trial suits him; he was 6th in Pais Vasco in 2013. Adam and Simon Yates are also along for OGE; keep an eye out for the highly touted young duo. Giant-Shimano’s pair of Warren Barguil and Tom Dumoulin could make waves here. Barguil will love the constant opportunities to jump up the road on a climb, and Dumoulin is a serious time trialing talent. Astana sends Mikel Landa, Janez Brajkovic, and Tanel Kangert (who is great against the clock). Lotto’s Jurgen Van Den Broeck will hope that this is the race that puts him on track in 2014. Caja Rural’s David Arroyo abandoned Catalunya in the final day but had been climbing at a high level before then; teammate Luis Leon Sanchez is a time trialing talent who has had plenty of success racing bikes in El Pais Vasco. Pierre Rolland has not gotten it going yet in 2014, but the two-time Tour de France Top 10er at least deserves a mention. And lastly: in a rare occurrence, Sky does not really have a top contender in this race, with their various stars racing, training, or recovering elsewhere; Mikel Nieve and Peter Kennaugh are their best bets here.

Stagehunters

The dearth of flat stages has kept the start list light on sprinting talent. Orica-GreenEdge’s Michael Matthews and Sky’s Ben Swift will be happy to pick up whatever sprint finishes they can. Barring any late additions to the startlist Michael Morkov and Daniele Ratto comprise basically the rest of the list of riders to watch in a bunch gallop.

As with many races with this kind of parcours, most stages will see the GC contenders on their toes and alert for opportunities to strike; some of them, riders like Valverde, Costa, and Kwiatkowski will be looking to pick up multiple stage wins as well as fight for the General Classification. Holding off these big names will be a challenge for the stagehunters here, but the list of punchy fast-finishers among them is an impressive one: Orica Green-Edge’s Simon Gerrans (who won a stage last year), and BMC’s Philippe Gilbert headline the group. A number of the stars of Paris-Nice make the start as well. Garmin’s Tom-Jelte Slagter will love his chances to pick up more stage victories here. The same could be said for FDJ’s Arthur Vichot. Europcar’s Cyril Gautier will look for his first WorldTour win after a fine start to 2014. Jan Bakelants and Pieter Serry of OPQS also like to jump on the late bumps in the road and both have fast finishes. Astana’s Maxim Iglinskiy and Enrico Gasparotto could be active as well.

Amets Txurruka deserves a mention all to himself: he will almost certainly be up the road going for the long breakaway victory on multiple days of this race. He was King of the Mountains last year.

VeloHuman Favorites

Winner: Alberto Contador
Podium: Tejay van Garderen, Alejandro Valverde
Top 10: Rui Costa, Michal Kwiatkowksi, Roman Kreuziger, Jean-Christophe Peraud, Robert Gesink, Bauke Mollema, Carlos Betancur

Be sure to follow me @VeloHuman on Twitter for more live analysis during the race, and come back soon for more classics coverage: the Paris-Roubaix preview is up next!

-Dane Cash

Photo by brassynn.

April 6, 2014
Volta Ciclista a Catalunya 2014 Preview

The Scenario: A Climber’s Dream Course in Catalunya

Just one day after the first sprinter-friendly Milano-Sanremo in years, the Volta a Catalunya, a climber’s dream course, begins about an hour north of Barcelona in Calella, Spain. 2014’s Volta a Catalunya, like past editions of the race, offers a parcours rife with uphill action, including a third stage dominated by Alt de la Creueta, a climb that caps a larger section of over 30 kilometers at an over 3% on average grade. That brutal stage finishes atop the Category 1 summit of La Molina, but the riders will have little time to rest before embarking on the fourth stage, where they will be welcomed by three Category 1 climbs and a summit finish at the Vallter 2000 ski resort. Stage 6 looks like the only day that the GC contenders will try to take comfortably, with almost 60 downhill or flat kilometers into the finish. While not as demanding as the two aforementioned high mountain days, stages 1, 2, 5, and 7 will require the overall contenders to be on their toes, with late climbs likely to inspire attacks. In short, this is not a race for the faint of heart, or the heavy of frame. The parcours has drawn quite a startlist, one that will pit some of the top GC climbers against one another in a contest of early season form.

Before I dive in, the important notes: follow the still-practically-brand-new Twitter account @VeloHuman for plenty of live analysis during the race (and check it out soon for live Milano-Sanremo updates and analysis)! MSR post-race thoughts will be up not long after today’s contest, and the next preview on the docket is the 28th’s E3 Harelbeke, so you might as well just keep this window open for a few days to come!

All-rounder Roundup

Chris Froome dropped out of Tirreno-Adriatico with back pain, but he’ll be lining up for the Volta a Catalunya at the head of Sky’s finest to make a bid for victory. He reminded the peloton of his supremacy atop Green Mountain in the Tour of Oman in late February, but he hasn’t raced since, making the form, and the general health, something of an unknown. He’ll need all his ability against the field. Fortunately, trusted lieutenant Richie Porte will be there to play second. Porte was forced to abandon Tirreno-Adriatico for health reasons himself, but he looked sharp there before he left. Together with climbing talents Mikel Nieve and David Lopez, Sky’s top GC riders will look to pick up results at the WorldTour level. It is hard to predict how they will do, given health concerns, but if nagging issues are resolved by the time the race begins, obviously they’re quite the one-two punch, even without a time trial in the race.

A revitalized Alberto Contador (who “won” this race in 2011, but was stripped of the title as part of his doping penlaties) took Tirreno-Adriatico by storm, and he’ll attend Catalunya looking to further prove his improved form against those riders who were not in attendance during his spectacular Stage 5 performance in Italy, ie. Froome, Porte, and Joaquim Rodriguez. Contador’s team will not include his chief lieutenant Roman Kreuziger or Nicolas Roche, and Rafal Majka was a late scratch, leaving him a bit understaffed with lieutenants. The big question for Contador is whether he can maintain the otherworldly level he was on last week into this week’s contest.

Joaquim Rodriguez leads Katusha’s charge alongside Daniel Moreno. Purito was 2nd here last year and won in 2010, and he looked on fine form in Oman. Moreno was very strong last week in Tirreno-Adriatico, among the best climbers in the race. With no troublesome time trials to put them behind the likes of Froome and Porte, Catalunya will likely see the usual uphill fireworks from these two, with plenty of potential stage wins in play. Moreno and Rodriguez are both known for explosiveness and fast finishes, but they’ve also gotten better and better on the long haul climbs, and they’ll need to be at their best with a few ascents that seem to go on forever in this race.

4th in last year’s edition was Movistar’s Nairo Quintana, who is coming off a sharp 2nd place in Tirreno-Adriatico. He was not able to match Alberto Contador’s uphill ability there, but he also had not taken part in a stage race in almost two months. I think he will be a bit more acclimated to the grind now. The unrelenting climbing will suit his skillset perfectly.
Update: there are reports that Quintana is taking antibiotics to get over a cold, which will obviously make things harder for him here.

Last year’s winner (and prior to that, two time runner-up) Daniel Martin, was made for this race and its parcours. The pure climber sealed his victory in 2013 with a fearless uphill attack on the 4th stage that left Purito and Quintana in its wake. His past results here might make him a bigger favorite in this race if his form weren’t such a question mark. With his eyes on a defense of Monument classic Liege-Bastogne-Liege and then a Giro starting in his home country of Ireland, Martin’s goals may have shifted somehwat this year. He’s still a strong contender, but Ryder Hesjedal (form also a question mark), late addition Andrew Talansky, and Tom Danielson are other cards for Garmin to play should Martin not be at peak form just yet.

AG2R sends a fearsome trio to Catalunya, led by Paris-Nice winner Carlos Betancur. Questions about his shape and form were more than answered by his dominance in P-N, and Catalunya is another opportunity for him to make a statement, this time against better GC-style competition. Domenico Pozzovivo had a fine Tirreno-Adriatico, notching a 6th place. Romain Bardet‘s chances at Paris-Nice were derailed by an early crash, but he’ll be yet another uphill option for AG2R in Spain this week.

Omega Pharma’s Rigoberto Uran seemed 100% committed to the cause of teammate Michal Kwiatkowski last week in Tirreno-Adriatico, and did not challenge for GC himself. Still, I believe he is in good form, and probably looking for a chance to prove it; against many the top climbers in the sport, he’ll have a good chance this week. New teammate Thomas de Gendt took his last pro victory in the final stage of this race in 2013. Perhaps he’ll look to 2014 as an opportunity to get back on track. BMC’s Tejay van Garderen looked very strong in Oman, second on the decisive climb to Chris Froome, but had to abandon Paris-Nice early due to illness. If he still has the kind of form that he showed in Oman, he has a fine opportunity here, with a chance to put his uphill diesel engine to work on these long climbs. Teammate Samuel Sanchez has had a great deal of success in this race over the years, winning stages and landing several strong GC showings, though it’s hard to guess his form right now.

Chris Horner abandoned Tirreno-Adriatico with tendinitis, but he looked sharp before then; teammate Przemyslaw Niemiec made last year’s top 10. Wilco Kelderman leads a strong Belkin team, and he’ll hope Cataluyna will provide the chance for glory than an untimely mechanical stole from him in Paris-Nice; he looked strong in that race. Laurens Ten Dam and Steven Kruisjwijk are good support options. Ivan Basso struggled in Tirreno-Adriatico, but he’ll look to rebound for Cannondale here. Warren Barguil leads Giant-Shimano up the Spanish climbs. Various ailments have kept Thibaut Pinot out of races early this year, but he took 8th place here last year and obviously the profile suits him if he’s healthy; Alexandre Geniez, Arnold Jeanneason and Kenny Elissonde are all strong support riders or backup options if need be for FDJ. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland and Thomas Voeckler will try to bring that team some success on up-down terrain that seems to suit them. Julian Arredondo made one of the biggest impressions of last week’s Tirreno-Adriatico, and the Colombian climbing talent will love this time trial-less, route; meanwhile, teammate Robert Kiserlovski made it two in the top 10 for Trek at T-A, giving a team in sore need of GC contenders a surprising pair of them here. Lotto’s Jurgen van den Broeck will look to get on track after a series of disappointments this year. Astana sends Janez Brajkovic, Mikel Landa, and young Fabio Aru. Cofidis sends 2013 Tour top 10 finisher Daniel Navarro, who looked good in Andalucia. Caja Rural sends David Arroyo and Luis Leon Sanchez, who also looked good in Andalucia. The Pro Continental squads will have their work cut out for them against so many top climbers leading top climbing squads here.
Update: Top-notch climber Jakob Fuglsang is a late addition to the Astana squad and therefore joins the realm of outside contenders.

Stagehunters

With so many stages for the GC style climbers, staggeringly few sprinters are even bothering to make the trip (no time trials means there aren’t any chrono men seeking ITT wins either). Stage 6 is likely to be contested by a pretty select list of riders in a mass gallop. AG2R’s Sam Dumoulin (who has excelled in this race, taking three stages in the past) Giant-Shimano’s Luka Mezgec, Trek’s Giacomo Nizzolo (coming off a broken collarbone), Lampre’s Roberto Ferrari, Lotto’s Gregory Henderson, and OGE’s Leigh Howard look to be the most capable fast men on the start list. The first three also happen to be fairly versatile riders, for whom some of the hillier stages are not out of the realm of possibility. Anthony Roux is the sort of rider who might take advantage of some of the lumpier days. It seems inevitable that Caja Rural’s Amets Txurruka and Trek’s Jens Voigt will spend some time up the road looking for long-range victories. At least with so few riders making the start who aren’t focused on their own or their teammates’ GC aspirations, the stagehunters will have less competition for their one-day goals!

VeloHuman GC Top 10 Favorites

Winner: Chris Froome
Podium: Alberto Contador, Nairo Quintana
Challengers: Carlos Betancur, Rigoberto Uran, Domenico Pozzovivo, Tejay van Garderen, Joaquim Rodriguez, Daniel Moreno, Daniel Martin

Don’t forget to follow @VeloHuman on Twitter, and check back soon for the E3 Harelbeke preview!

-Dane Cash

Photo by -Eric.

March 23, 2014
Paris-Nice 2014 and Tirreno-Adriatico 2014 Post-Race Impressions: Making Statements in March

Youth is Served at Paris-Nice

Paris-Nice was a race full of coming out parties. The youth movement was on full display on the undulating course, where every stage winner was aged 25 or younger. Young but already established sprinters Nacer Bouhanni and John Degenkolb further padded their resumes at the top level, both picking up victories (and Degenkolb’s multiple strong showings on the way to the points jersey suggest a high level of form heading into Milano-Sanremo this weekend). Moreno Hofland made good on his excellent Kuurne Bruxelles-Kuurne by taking a stage victory over both of Degenkolb and Bouhanni. He’s just 22 and an exciting addition for a Belkin team that has been lacking in sprint power recently.

Once the road went up, AG2R’s Carlos Betancur put on a show, picking up two stage wins en route to the overall victory. Betancur, just 24, showed a powerful finishing kick in back to back stages. His explosiveness was already a well-known trait, but before this week, he had yet to pick up a WorldTour level victory. Now, he has three. With his performances in Paris-Nice, he has to be viewed as a top contender to nab a victory in the Ardennes.

Tom-Jelte Slagter won the Tour Down Under in 2013, but that is a race that has a history of producing results that aren’t repeated elsewhere on the pro calendar. Garmin’s new acquisition confirmed his talents with a very successful Paris-Nice, winning two stages, once with a late attack, and another in a reduced bunch sprint. His shot at the overall classification was ruined by an untimely late mechanical, but he showed he could contend for GC in this kind of race before that misfortune. Slagter’s brand of riding is the sort that wins late summer circuit races, so watch out for him in the GPs of Ouest Plouay, Montreal, and Quebec, where he seems set to improve on a number of top 10s already on his resume. Speaking of those late summer circuit races, last year’s runner up in the Grand Prix Cycliste de Quebec, FDJ’s Arthur Vichot, outgunned more well-known sprinter/all-rounder JJ Rojas in the final stage of Paris-Nice on his way to a podium spot. Like most of the top riders in this race, the French champion will take on the Ardennes Classics in April.

For many of the aforementioned riders, Paris-Nice was a chance to make good on previous flashes of talent. Europcar’s Cyril Gautier, 6th overall at Paris-Nice, was a bit more of a surprise, having only found some success at lower levels so far. He was in the mix at nearly all the stage finishes that mattered in P-N. Stefan Denifl was mixing it up as well on his way to 7th overall for IAM Cycling.

Simon Spilak and Jakob Fuglsang (who stepped in for Astana with Nibali not at his best) both showed fine form, but this was always going to be a difficult race for them to break into podium positions: neither is well-known for his sprint, and with so many bonus seconds on the line, Top 10s are respectable results to start the season.

The number of riders derailed by sudden misfortune was staggering. Many big contenders hit untimely mechanicals or were put out of contention by crashes, or just plain got sick. Geraint Thomas looked set for a podium position before a nasty late crash. Still, he showed serious all-round talent throughout the race, climbing at a surprising level, and Sky’s trust in his ability will grow after several strong days at P-N.

Rui Costa gets the final mention. He’ll be frustrated beyond belief with 2nd places on two stages and in GC, but he’s obviously on sharp form and has plenty of big races coming up, including Pais Vasco, which looks full of stages to suit his talents.

Contador Dominant in Italy

Tirreno-Adriatico offers one takeaway that stands out above all others: Alberto Contador is back. The 31 year old Spaniard was untouchable on the two mountainous stages of T-A, and the sheer size of the gap he created on Stage 5, after already giving his best to win Stage 4, put him a level well above anyone else in the race. It’s early in the year, but he should carry this form into Catalunya, where he’ll face more of the peloton’s best. His teammate Roman Kreuziger landed yet another result suggesting that he should be considered alongside the very best GC riders in the peloton, fighting it out with the top climbers in the race behind Contador on Stages 4 and 5. There are few things that the winner of last year’s Amstel Gold Race can’t do, and he looks well-situated right now to bring those talents in full force to the spring stage races and Ardennes Classics.

Nairo Quintana was not able to hang with Contador at Tirreno-Adriatico, but he still looked quite good, finishing as runner-up. He has had comparatively few days of racing so far this season, so a 2nd place at T-A bodes well. The biggest takeaway for Quintana may have been a rapidly improving ability to take on the clock: his ITT, usually a weak part of his game, was faster than the ITTs of both Kreuziger and Contador.

Trek’s Julian Arredondo made one of the biggest entrances in T-A. The 25 year old Colombian came into T-A hot after a 2nd overall in San Luis and two stage wins, and he hung with all the best climbers in this race (minus Contador) on stages 4 and 5 to take 5th overall. He and teammate Robert Kiserlovski, 8th overall, will look to keep landing strong performances in the early season.

AG2R, having just won Paris-Nice, put together a great showing at Tirreno-Adriatico, with Jean-Christophe Peraud nabbing 4th overall and Domenico Pozzovivo 6th. It’s quite a turnaround for a squad that, not long ago, was generally towards the bottom of the WorldTour standings.

Michal Kwiatkowski’s week, characterized by an early lead and sudden fall back to Earth, was a big storyline in Tirreno-Adriatico. After giving his all and hanging with the best of the climbers in the race on the 4th stage, he simply couldn’t hang on the pace for the next day. He’ll be extremely disappointed with the missed chance at his first WorldTour victory, but he should take solace in the fact that OPQS was willing to put everything they had (including last year’s Giro runner-up Rigoberto Uran) behind his chances at winning the race. Pais Vasco looks to suit his talents, so watch out for him again there.

Halfway through the race, Richie Porte joined Chris Froome on Sky’s sicklist, an unfortunate turn of events that kept us from the opportuntity to see much of Porte’s form right now, though he looked in fine shape on the 4th stage. Robert Gesink and Chris Horner pulled out for health reasons as well. Cadel Evans also dropped out of the race, well off form. He has work to do if he wants to contend in the big races of the spring.

For various reasons, neither stage 2 nor stage 6 offered the expected showdown between the sport’s top three sprinters, Greipel, Kittel, and Cavendish. Cav won Stage 6 in commanding fashion, with a leadout so strong that his teammate Alessandro Petacchi took 2nd on the day, but Kittel and Greipel were not positioned to contest him there. Meanwhile, Matteo Pelucchi, with a beautiful kick and an uncanny sense of timing, jumped at just the right moment to take Stage 2 for IAM Cycling. Peter Sagan won the 3rd stage handily and took the Points Classification, lest there was any question about his form in the early season. He looks sharp for the upcoming classics.

Adriano Malori finally nabbed his big win. He took the final ITT handily, and he did it against the biggest three names in time trialing and a slew of other big chrono riders. He was part of Movistar’s very strong TTT in this race, a group that set up Nairo Quintana for his 2nd place. I think we’ll see Malori and his fellow Movistar time trialing heavyweights on display again soon, perhaps in the Giro.

What’s Next?

Three WorldTour stage races are already in the books in 2014, both of them full of takeaways for the early season. If Paris-Nice and Tirreno-Adriatico didn’t get you excited enough, the first Monument of the season, Milano-Sanremo, is up next. VeloHuman will, of course, be previewing the race, so check back soon, and follow the new @VeloHuman on Twitter for more analysis every day!

-Dane Cash

Photo by Mike Slone.

March 18, 2014
Tirreno-Adriatico 2014 Preview

Top Talent Everywhere at Tirreno-Adriatico

Being able to watch two WorldTour stage races at the same time is almost too good to be true. Paris-Nice has kicked off already, and it’s been a thrilling ride so far, with three different sprinters winning the opening three stages; Bouhanni and Degenkolb were well above the competition in stages 1 and 3, respectively, and Moreno Hofland (VH did tell you he looked great this season!) made a brilliant WorldTour entrance on stage 2. There is even more action on the way tomorrow with the beginning of the “Race of the Two Seas,” boasting a start list packed with talent from all angles and specialties. While Paris-Nice took an unconventional approach to stage planning this year, drawing up a course with no mountaintop finishes and no time trials, Tirreno-Adriatico looks to be an archetypical stage race, opening with a team time trial, offering a few flat sprinters’ days and a few days in the mountains for the climbers, and then closing with an individual time trial. This race was made for a true blue GC rider at the head of a strong team.

Before I dive in: don’t forget to follow the just-launched @VeloHuman on Twitter for more news and views during the race! And as usual, if you just want to cut straight to the GC Top 10 predictions, they’re at the bottom of this post.

All-Rounder Roundup

True blue GC riders leading strong teams are all over the startlist. First on the docket is a rider who wasn’t scheduled to ride this race until just this weekend, when Plan A, Chris Froome (who was 2nd last year to Vincenzo Nibali, currently at Paris-Nice), withdrew from Tirreno-Adriatico with back pain. Richie Porte steps into his place. The Australian was set to defend his Paris-Nice title, but he may have lucked out; with his combination of TT ability and long haul climbing, T-A seems to suit him much better than P-N. He’ll also have the benefit of a great chrono team on the opening stage, as Sky brings Bradley Wiggins, Kanstantsin Siutsou, Dario Cataldo, and Ian Stannard as well. Wiggins was another late addition, and after he announced a plan to also ride the Volta a Catalunya, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Sir Bradley with his own GC ambitions.

Tinkoff Saxo’s Alberto Contador nabbed 3rd place and the Points Classification of last year’s edition. He’s off to a hot start, winning a stage and taking 2nd in the Volta ao Algarve. He’ll bring quite a team to the 2014 race, with elite climbers Nicolas Roche and Roman Kreuziger (also looking sharp) to serve as impressive seconds. Tinkoff-Saxo will be a very difficult team to beat.

Nairo Quintana and his Movistar squad will also bring serious firepower, with a squad well selected for this race: Quintana will love the uphill mileage but he’ll struggle on the final day’s time trial; good thing for him that Movistar is likely to set him up nicely from the first stage with some top men against the clock, including Alex Dowsett, Jonathan Castroviejo and Adriano Malori. Benat Intxausti, Igor Anton, Eros Capecchi, and Andrey Amador (surprisingly 8th here last year), will provide quite a buffer of talent on the hills as well. With the kind of form he showed in the Tour de San Luis, Quintana could put serious time on anyone not climbing at an elite level right now. I think it’s likely he will.

BMC’s Cadel Evans has looked good in the early goings, and he’s won here in the past. With his all-round abilities, he can be a strong player in the GC game at this race. Other than Philippe Gilbert, he won’t have the name recognition supporting him that the other big GC guys will have, but Darwin Atapuma will make a strong ally on the slopes.

OPQS is bringing a pairing of potential team leaders, making it difficult for opponents to plan accordingly. One of the hottest riders in the peloton right now is Poland’s Michal Kwiatkowski, and he’ll roll into T-A as a great candidate for the overall, especially with the stalwart support of the team’s world-beating time trial skills giving him an advantage right out of the gate. He’s also a good pick to have the best final day chrono of any GC contender, as he excels in that discipline, especially over short distances. Meanwhile, OPQS is also sending top climber Rigoberto Uran, who will be a favorite on both mountain stages, and who will also be helped by the TTT. He was one of the strongest riders in the Tour of Oman, where he finished on the podium.

I think the top of the leaderboard will be very tight among these top favorites. All of them are big names with big support and proven Grand Tour style talent, with the exception of Kwiatkowksi, who makes up for what he lacks in experience with on fire form. But this is one of the most impressive startlists you’ll see for a one week stage race this year, and that doesn’t simply apply to the top favorites.

A number of challenger squads are taking a 1-2 punch approach: Belkin’s pairing of Robert Gesink (looking sharp so far) and Bauke Mollema will make them very difficult to plan against; both riders are very well-rounded, which will be helpful in this race. Garmin-Sharp brings their own top duo of Andrew Talansky and Daniel Martin, and there’s something for both of them here: Andrew Talansky has the big tank necessary for the long haul climb of stage 4 (and the finishing time trial), while Martin is just the type of rider to explode up the sloping finish of stage 5, and his style won’t be too hampered by the time trial, which will be short enough that he can probably cope; however, the form of both Garmin riders is an unknown. AG2R’s Domenico Pozzovivo and Jean-Christophe Peraud, both excellent uphill sloggers and both off to strong starts this year, will make a formidable mini-train when the road goes skyward. Lampre-Merida could go with the hot hand of Italian wunderkind Diego Ulissi, a force in the bonus seconds game and a strong presence at the Tour Down Under, or with newly acquired vet Chris Horner, who, despite being teamless for most of the offseason, looked like he hadn’t lost much form when he took to the slopes at the Volta ao Algarve. Astana sends former winner Michele Scarponi, looking alright so far this year, and Tanel Kangert, who gets better at climbing every day.

Dani Moreno gets to race on his own in a rare occurrence, and he tends to do well enough as it is when he’s second to Purito; watch out for him here with bonus seconds in play and an ITT short enough not to disadvantage him too heavily. Thibaut Pinot pulled out of Oman, making his form an unknown, but he’s a contender if he’s in shape, though FDJ’s weak TTT squad won’t help his cause; Alexandre Geniez is another option. Europcar’s Pierre Rolland is in a similar boat. Jurgen van den Broeck hasn’t showed much this year, but he’ll head up Lotto’s GC ambitions. Ivan Basso is yet another bringing unknown form but obvious talent. Robert Kiserlovski is probably Trek’s go to GC man, and he’ll at least have a decent start thanks to Cancellara and Co. in the opening stage.

Stagehunters

The list of riders here to chase stages is perhaps even more impressive. The four biggest names in sprinting will be in attendance, namely, Andre Greipel, Marcel Kittel, Mark Cavendish, and Peter Sagan. Greipel looks amazing right now and Kittel took several wins in Dubai. Mark Cavendish got started a bit later than Greipel and Kittel, but he took a stage win against very talented sprinters in the Volta ao Algarve. Sagan is his usual self, probably just a hair behind the big three pure sprinters but always lurking, and he’ll be gunning for the slightly uphill third stage finish. FDJ’s Arnaud Demare (who can probably handle stage 3 as well), Lampre’s very hot Sacha Modolo, MTN-Qhubeka’s Gerald Ciolek, and Tinkoff-Saxo’s Daniele Bennati and Michael Morkov will try to nab a sprint victory from the bigger names. Philippe Gilbert could also feature on the third stage. I’d love to see a guy like Sam Bennett take a stage win here but with such a talented field, it’s hard to see guys on the fringe with much of a shot.

Not to be outdone by the caliber of sprinting talent in attendance, the three biggest names in time-trialing will set out from Donoratico as well: Tony Martin, Bradley Wiggins, and Fabian Cancellara. The final stage will be a treat for fans of chronos with so many TT specialists and GC contenders with TT ability gunning for victory. Orica-GreenEdge seems to have brought a squad hellbent on performing in both the opening team time trial and the final short ITT, with Luke Durbridge, Michael Hepburn, Cam Meyer and Svein Tuft all making the start. Every stage of this race really will feature top talents in every cycling specialty.

VeloHuman Predictions

GC Winner: Nairo Quintana

GC Podium: Michal Kwiatkowski, Richie Porte

GC Top 10: Alberto Contador, Rigoberto Uran, Domenico Pozzovivo, Cadel Evans, Diego Ulissi, Robert Gesink, Andrew Talansky

Check back in soon for post-race analysis and the next VH race preview (Milano-Sanremo is less than two weeks away). In the meantime, look for more news and views @VeloHuman on Twitter.

-Dane Cash

Photo by Antonio Cinotti.

March 11, 2014
Clásica de San Sebastián 2013 Pre-race Outlook

Back into the Saddle

The Clásica de San Sebastián showcases a number of serious climbing specialists and puncheurs, many of whom are getting right back into the saddle after a grueling Tour de France and still looking for chances to shine. The profile is dotted with classic Basque Country climbs. Scaling the Category 1 Jaizkibel twice, the second time about 40 kilometers from the finish line, should force some selection. A Cat 2 with less than 20km to go could provide a springboard for attacks, but it is the unclassified bump in the road just a few kilometers from the end of the race that has played launchpad for many of the races recent winners, including Philippe Gilbert and Luis Leon Sanchez.

Luis Leon Sanchez will be absent from the startlist in 2013. Gilbert is here again this year, but picking him to win anything seems to be a losing game recently. Instead, it looks like this edition will be be a battle royale between some of the biggest names of the recent Tour de France. Of those big names, few riders probably want to make a statement win more than Movistar’s Alejandro Valverde, and the San Sebastian parcours suits his combination of sprinting and climbing. He’ll need to be aggressive (recent winners of this race have been) but he should be capable of both keeping up with last-ditch strikes and outsprinting a select group to the line, and after his terrible luck in the Tour, I don’t think he’ll want for aggression. Omega Pharma-Quick Step sends two potential contenders from Paris to the startling line in Sylvain Chavanel and Michal Kwiatkowski. Chavanel was constantly at the head of the pack in the Tour, but never made much of a mark; doubtless he’ll try something here, but I don’t see him having success against this field on this succession of ascents. The very young Kwiatkowski might be my favorite to win were he not coming off his first Tour effort. Still, he climbed well even into the Alps, and he has had a few days to recover: if Kwiatkowski can hang with the lead group, he can sprint with the best of them, and he can sustain a long distance strike, too. Simon Gerrans is another rider with a strong post-climb sprint, but with Orica GreenEdge’s stable of rouleurs and sprinters-who-can-climb, it is difficult to pick any one to shine ahead of the others. If the team helps him make it to the line, he’s very dangerous in the closing kilometer. Moreno Moser, winner of last year’s Tour de Pologne, showed strong form on the Alpe d’Huez a few days ago. He battled Kwiatkowski fiercely in Poland last year, and I can see both young riders jockeying for position here if a select group finishes together. Roman Kreuziger, in the middle of a career year that includes a win at Amstel Gold, a podium in the Tour de Suisse and a top 10 finish in the Tour, leads a Saxo-Tinkoff team not dissimilar from the Tour squad: Roche and Rogers will be in attendance, too. If he can solo over the Cauberg, Kreuziger can hang on here, as well. Bauke Mollema apparently caught ill in the Tour’s mountain time trial in which he lost so much time. Recovered, he could certainly show up at San Sebastian. He was 5th here last year, his climbing has form has never been better, and lest anyone forget, he had the finishing kick to secure the points classification at the 2011 Vuelta. With no Joaquim Rodriguez, Alexandr Kolobnev looks like Katusha’s best chance here. He was second all the way back in 2008, and this year he’s coming off a strong Tour of Wallonie and will be fresher than many of his Tour-wearied opponents. Lastly, Gilbert’s teammate Greg Van Avermaet is coming off an extremely successful Tour de Wallonie, in which he won two stages, the points classification, and the overall race. He was third here in 2011: whether or not he finishes highly will depend on the pace up the final climbs (and, of course, whether he is targetting a victory Saturday in the first place). He won’t be able to hang with any of the pure climbers if they make any aggressive attacks late, but if things come back together, he could contend with the likes of Simon Gerrans for a sprint finish with a select group.

VeloHuman Predictions

Winner

Alejandro Valverde

Podium

Roman Kreuziger, Michal Kwiatkowski

Other Strong Contenders

Simon Gerrans, Bauke Mollema, Greg van Avermaet, Alexandr Kolobnev, Moreno Moser

-Dane Cash

Photo by malomen.

July 27, 2013